• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.23 no.8
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• pp.117-127
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• 2007

Slope stability analysis is a geotechnical engineering problem characterized by many sources of uncertainty. Some of them are connected to the uncertainties of soil properties involved in the analysis. In this paper, a numerical procedure for integrating commercial finite difference method into probabilistic analysis of slope stability is presented. Since the limit-state function cannot be expressed in an explicit form, the ANN-based response surface method is adopted to approximate the limit-state function and the first-, second-order reliability method and the Monte Carlo simulation technique are used to calculate the probability of failure. Probabilistic stability assessments for a hypothetical two-layer slope and the Sugar Creek embankment were performed to verify the application potential to the slope stability problems. The examples show the successful implementation and the possibility of the extension of the proposed procedure to the variety of geotechnical engineering problems.

• Journal of Sensor Science and Technology
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• v.4 no.4
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• pp.47-54
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• 1995

Sensory measurements are inevitably uncertain, and this may decrease the reliability of sensor feedback systems. In this paper we present a method to achieve reliable measurements using multiple sensors. Assuming sensors with unknown characteristics in dynamic surroundings, readings from the sensors are clustered and fused with the estimated degrees of credit. In the experiment performed with logical sensors the technique proposed is employed to adaptively estimate the measurand under the circumstances where an existing probabilistic technique is difficult to be applied. The technique proposed may be useful for automatic systems working in unstructured environments - for example, sensory robots employed for intelligent manipulation.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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• 2003.05a
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• pp.77-81
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• 2003

SDM (Structural Dynamics Modification) is a tool to improve dynamic characteristics of a structure, more specifically of a base structure, by adding or deleting auxiliary (modifying) structures. In this paper, the goal of the optimal SDM is set to maximize the natural frequency of a base plate structure by attaching serially-connected beam stiffeners. The design variables are chosen as positions of the attaching beam stiffeners, where the number of stiffeners is considered as a design space. The problem of non-matching interface nodes between the base plate and beam stiffeners is solved by using localized Lagrange multipliers, which act to glue the two structures with non-matching interface nodes. As fer the cases of non-matching interface nodes problem, the governing equation of motion of a structure can be considered from the viewpoint of a topological modification, which involves the change of the number of structural members and DOFs. Consequently, the eigenpairs of the beam-stiffened plate structure are obtained by using an eigen reanalysis technique of topological modifications. Evolution Strategies (ES), which is a probabilistic population-based optimization technique that mimics the principles from biological evolution in nature, is utilized as a mean for the optimization.

• Computational Structural Engineering
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.111-117
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• 1991

The analysis method calculating the mean and standard deviation for the eigenvalue of complicated structures in which the limit state equation is implicitly expressed is formulated and applied to the buckling analysis by combining probabilistic finite element method with direct differential method which is a kind of sensitivity analysis technique. Also, the probability of buckling failure is calculated by combining classical reliability techniques such a MVFOSM and AFOSM. As random variables external load, elastic modulus, sectional moment of inertia and member length are chosen and Parkinson's iteration algorithm in AFOSM is used. The accuracy of the results by this study is verified by comparing the results with the crude Monte Carlo simulation and Importance Sampling Method. Through the case study of some structures the important aspects of buckling reliability analysis are discussed.

• Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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• v.20 no.12
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• pp.2124-2135
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• 2006

In this paper, the reliability estimation of pipelines is performed by employing the probabilistic method, which accounts for the uncertainties in the load and resistance parameters of the limit state function. The FORM (first order reliability method) and the SORM (second order reliability method) are carried out to estimate the failure probability of pipeline utilizing the FAD (failure assessment diagram). And the reliability of pipeline is assessed by using this failure probability and analyzed in accordance with a target safety level. Furthermore, the MCS (Monte Carlo Simulation) is used to verify the results of the FORM and the SORM. It is noted that the failure probability increases with the increase of dent depth, gouge depth, operating pressure, outside radius, and the decrease of wall thickness. It is found that the FORM utilizing the FAD is a useful and is an efficient method to estimate the failure probability in the reliability assessment of a pipeline. Furthermore, the pipeline safety assessment technique with the deterministic procedure utilizing the FAD only is turned out more conservative than those obtained by using the probability theory together with the FAD. The probabilistic method such as the FORM, the SORM and the MCS can be used by most plant designers regarding the operating condition and design parameters.

• Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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• v.3 no.3
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• pp.280-289
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• 2000

This paper presents an efficient method to provide seamless communication in mobile wireless networks. The goal of seamless communication is to provide disruption free service to a mobile user. A disruption in service could occur due to active handoffs. There are many user applications that do not require a total guarantee for disruption free service but would also not tolerate very frequent disruptions. This paper proposes an extended staggered multicast that provides a probabilistic guarantee for disruption free service. The proposed multicast forecasts the direction and velocity for a mobile host. It is possible that data packets for a mobile host are multicasted to not all neighbor cells but a par\ulcorner of neighbor cells those the mobile host will be handoff potentially on the basis of these information. Therefore, the extended staggered multicast significantly reduces the static network bandwidth usage also provides a probabilistic guarantee for disruption free service.

• Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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• v.16 no.10
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• pp.1229-1238
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• 2002

In this paper, a method to obtain the sensitivity of eigenvalues and the random responses of the structure with uncertain parameters is proposed. The concept of the proposed method is that the perturbed equation of each uncertain substructure is obtained using the finite element method, and the perturbed equation of the overall structure is obtained using the mode synthesis method. By this way, the reduced order perturbed equation of the uncertain system can be obtained. And the response of the uncertain system is obtained using probability method. As a numerical example, a simple piping system is considered as an example structure. The damping and spring constants of the support are considered as the uncertain parameters. Then the variations of the eigenvalues, the correlation function and the power spectral density function of the responses are calculated. As a result, the proposed method is considered to be useful technique to analyze the sensitivities of eigenvalues and random response against random excitation in terms of the accuracy and the calculation time.

• Water Engineering Research
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.101-109
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• 2004

Aggregating information by combining forecasts from two or more forecasting methods is an alternative to using forecasts from just a single method to improve forecast accuracy. This paper describes the development and use of a monthly inflow forecast model based on an optimal linear combination (OLC) of forecasts derived from naive, persistence, and Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) forecasts. Using the cross-validation technique, the OLC model made 1-month ahead probabilistic forecasts for the Chungju multi-purpose dam inflows for 15 years. For most of the verification months, the skill associated with the OLC forecast was superior to those drawn from the individual forecast techniques. Therefore this study demonstrates that OLC can improve the accuracy of the ESP forecast, especially during the dry season. This study also examined the value of the OLC forecasts in reservoir operations. Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) derived the optimal operating policy for the Chungju multi-purpose dam operation and the derived policy was simulated using the 15-year observed inflows. The simulation results showed the SDP model that updated its probability from the new OLC forecast provided more efficient operation decisions than the conventional SDP model.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.14 no.5
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• pp.1097-1104
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• 1994

The external loads applied to a real structure may cause a severe damage and may eventually lead to total failure. It is thus the requirement that the structure must be designed to fulfil its safe function under any anticipated loads and must have the desired level of safety. The purpose of the present study is to propose a method of damage accumulation under seismic loadings to utilize it in the safety assessment of a reinforced concrete structure. To this end, the nonlinear hysteretic behavior of reinforced concrete structures is first modeled and the equivalent linearization technique is employed to solve numerically the probabilistic characteristics of response under random seismic loadings.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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• 1992.10a
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• pp.117-123
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• 1992

In recent years, the finite element method has become one of the most popular numerical technique for obtaining solutions of engineering science problems. However, there exist various uncertainties in modeling the problems, such as the dimensions(geometry shape), the material properties, boundary conditions, etc. The consideration for the uncertainties inherent in the problems can be made by understanding the influences of uncertain parameters[1]. Determining the influences of uncertainties as statistical quantities using the standard finite element method requires enormous computing time, while the probabilistic finite element method is realized as an efficient scheme[2,3] yielding statistical solution with just a few direct computations. In this paper, a formulation of the probabilistic fluid-structure interaction problem accounting for the first order perturbation of geometric shape is derived, and especially probabilistical acoustic pressure scattering from the structure with surrounding fluid is focused on. In Section 2, governing equations for the fluid-structure problems are given. In Section 3, a finite element formulation, based on the functional, is presented. First order perturbation of geometric shape with randomness is incorporated into the finite element formulation in conjunction with discretization of the random fields in Section 4 and 5. Finally, the proposed formulation is applied to a acoustic pressure scattering problem from an infinitely long cylindrical shell structure with randomness of radial perturbation.