• Title/Summary/Keyword: probabilistic reasoning

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Automatic Learning of Bayesian Probabilistic Model for Mobile Life Landmark Reasoning (모바일 라이프 특이성 추론을 위한 베이지안 확률 모델의 자동 학습)

  • Hwang, Keum-Sung;Cho, Sung-Bae
    • Proceedings of the Korean Information Science Society Conference
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    • 2007.10c
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    • pp.362-366
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    • 2007
  • 다양한 기능과 센서를 탑재한 최신 모바일 디바이스는 사용자의 위치, 전화기록, SMS, 사진, 동영상 등 사용자에 관한 다양한 정보를 지속적으로 수집할 수 있기 때문에 개인의 생활을 이해하고 다양한 서비스를 제공할 수 있는 가능성을 가지고 있다. 하지만, 모바일 장치의 성능 제약 및 환경 불확실성으로 인해 아직까지 많은 연구 과제들이 남아 있다. 본 논문에서는 이러한 모바일 환경의 문제를 극복하기 위해 베이지안 네트워크를 이용한 라이프 로그 분석 모델 및 자동 학습 방법을 제안한다. 제안하는 베이지안 네트워크 모델은 모듈화 되어서 계산량은 감소되었으며, 자동 학습 방법을 통해 지속적인 업데이트가 가능하다. 이는 제안하는 방법이 복잡한 확률 모델을 자동으로 분할하는 방법과 분할된 상태에서의 유기적인 추론 방법을 포함하고 있기에 가능하다. 실험에서는 실제 모바일 장치에서 수집된 로그 데이터를 이용하여 제안하는 방법에 의한 실험 결과를 분석하고 분할을 통한 효율성 향상을 논의 한다.

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A Study on Scientific Thinking of Korean High School Students-With Reference to Logical Thinking and Reasoning Power- (고교생의 과학적 사고력에 관한 연구-논리적 사고와 추리력을 중심으로-)

  • Hwang, Keung-Yeon;Park, In-Keun;Kim, Tai-Sung
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.19-37
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    • 1989
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate the development of logical thinking and scientific reasoning pattern of Korean high school students. To carry out this study subjects were selected about 2,000 Junior high school students, and about 4,100 senior high school students throughout the nation. They were identified as concrete, transitional or formal operational stage with the use of TOLT(the Test of Logical Thinking) by Tobin and Capie(1980), and TOSR(the Test of Scientific Reasoning) by W.A Farmer(1986). This study turned out that more than 76% of Junior high school students were classified as the concrete operational stage and about 44% of senior high school students were classified as the formal operational stage, while about 26% of them were still in the concrete operational level. This study showed that the main factor of the intellectual development of students is learning by the gradual advancement of their grades and especially entrance into the senior high school rather than by the physical growth. This study also showed that there are the take-off stage of the development of logical thinking between fourteen and fifteen years of their ages. Less than 25% of junior high school students were in the formal operational stages which are capable of control of variables, probabilistic, correlation and combinational logic in problem-solving situation, while 33-54% of senior high school students were in the formal operational levels. 38% of junior high school students were in the formal operational stage which is capable of proportional logic, while about 55% of senior high school students were in the formal operational stage. Less than 20% of senior high school students were classified as group of highly capable of scientific reasoning, while more than 23% of them were classified as group of poor capability. It also turned out that there are differences or no differences between male and female students of each school in problem-solving situation regarding each logic approach. These differences were proved to be fluctuating depending on the situations and their grades. The other results of this study is similar to those of other researches such as Tomlinson-Keasey 1972, Coleman 1973, Lawson 1973, Lawson and Renner 1974, Neimark 1975, Han 1982, and Kim 1989.

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Personalized Media Control Method using Probabilistic Fuzzy Rule-based Learning (확률적 퍼지 룰 기반 학습에 의한 개인화된 미디어 제어 방법)

  • Lee, Hyong-Euk;Kim, Yong-Hwi;Lee, Tae-Youb;Park, Kwang-Hyun;Kim, Yong-Soo;Cho, Joon-Myun;Bien, Z. Zenn
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.244-251
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    • 2007
  • Intention reading technique is essential to provide personalized services toward more convenient and human-friendly services in complex ubiquitous environment such as a smart home. If a system has knowledge about an user's intention of his/her behavioral pattern, the system can provide mote qualified and satisfactory services automatically in advance to the user's explicit command. In this sense, learning capability is considered as a key function for the intention reading technique in view of knowledge discovery. In this paper, ore introduce a personalized media control method for a possible application iii a smart home. Note that data pattern such as human behavior contains lots of inconsistent data due to limitation of feature extraction and insufficiently available features, where separable data groups are intermingled with inseparable data groups. To deal with such a data pattern, we introduce an effective engineering approach with the combination of fuzzy logic and probabilistic reasoning. The proposed learning system, which is based on IFCS (Iterative Fuzzy Clustering with Supervision) algorithm, extract probabilistic fuzzy rules effectively from the given numerical training data pattern. Furthermore, an extended architectural design methodology of the learning system incorporating with the IFCS algorithm are introduced. Finally, experimental results of the media contents recommendation system are given to show the effectiveness of the proposed system.

Fault Localization for Self-Managing Based on Bayesian Network (베이지안 네트워크 기반에 자가관리를 위한 결함 지역화)

  • Piao, Shun-Shan;Park, Jeong-Min;Lee, Eun-Seok
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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    • v.15B no.2
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    • pp.137-146
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    • 2008
  • Fault localization plays a significant role in enormous distributed system because it can identify root cause of observed faults automatically, supporting self-managing which remains an open topic in managing and controlling complex distributed systems to improve system reliability. Although many Artificial Intelligent techniques have been introduced in support of fault localization in recent research especially in increasing complex ubiquitous environment, the provided functions such as diagnosis and prediction are limited. In this paper, we propose fault localization for self-managing in performance evaluation in order to improve system reliability via learning and analyzing real-time streams of system performance events. We use probabilistic reasoning functions based on the basic Bayes' rule to provide effective mechanism for managing and evaluating system performance parameters automatically, and hence the system reliability is improved. Moreover, due to large number of considered factors in diverse and complex fault reasoning domains, we develop an efficient method which extracts relevant parameters having high relationships with observing problems and ranks them orderly. The selected node ordering lists will be used in network modeling, and hence improving learning efficiency. Using the approach enables us to diagnose the most probable causal factor with responsibility for the underlying performance problems and predict system situation to avoid potential abnormities via posting treatments or pretreatments respectively. The experimental application of system performance analysis by using the proposed approach and various estimations on efficiency and accuracy show that the availability of the proposed approach in performance evaluation domain is optimistic.

Context based User Required Services Reasoning Model (상황 정보 기반 사용자 요구 서비스 추론 모델)

  • Ko, Kwang-Enu;Sim, Kwee-Bo
    • Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.21-26
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    • 2008
  • It was already realized at a current technological level of home network systems that the systems recognizes a user's simple order and carry out the order in the ubiquitous computing environment. However home is not a simple environment consisting into a large number of family members, so various order and situation would be needed accordingly. From now on we need to reach the technological level to infer that how is the user's behavior patterns and what kinds of service is the fittest to user who belong to the ubiquitous computing environment by using the result of the context interpreter. In this regards, active inferred-model needs to be suggested upgrading user's command into one step more higher level than the simple one adapting diversified feature. This study would like to suggest this active model recognizing context, which is user's environmental information applying basic network and inferring Context-based Service that user wants through the recognized result This study proposes a new method that can infer the user's desire in ubiquitous computing environment. First of all, we define a context as user's information of ubiquitous computing environment situation that user belongs to and we classify the context into 4W1H(Where, Who, When, What) formats. We construct Bayesian network and put the factor of context use as Bayesian network nodes. As a result, we can infer the user's behavior pattern and most proper service for user in the intelligent space from the probabilistic result of Bayesian network.

Development of Context Awareness and Service Reasoning Technique for Handicapped People (장애인을 위한 상황인식 및 서비스 추론기술 개발)

  • Ko, Kwang-Eun;Shin, Dong-Jun;Sim, Kwee-Bo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.512-517
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    • 2008
  • It is show that increasing of aged and handicapped people requires development of Ubiquitous computing technique to offer the specialized service for handicapped-people. For this, we need a development of Context Awareness and Service Reasoning Technique that the technique is supplied interaction between user and U-environment instead of the old unilateral relation. The old research of context awareness needed probabilistic presentation model like a Bayesian Network based on expert Systems for recognize given circumstance by a domain of uncertain real world. In this article, we define a domain of disorder activity assistant service application and context model based on ontology in diversified environment and minimized intervention of user and developer. By use this context model, we apply the structure learning of Bayesian Network and decide the service and activity to development of application service for handicapped people. Finally, we define the proper Conditional Probability Table of the structured Bayesian Network and if random situation is given to user, then present state variable of Activity and Service by given Causal relation of Bayesian Network based on Conditional Probability Table and it can be result of context awareness.

An Analysis of Middle School Student's Eye Movements in the Law of Large Numbers Simulation Activity (큰 수의 법칙 시뮬레이션에서 중학생의 안구 운동 분석)

  • Choi, In Yong;Cho, Han Hyuk
    • The Mathematical Education
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    • v.56 no.3
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    • pp.281-300
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    • 2017
  • This study analyzed the difficulties of middle school students in computer simulation of the law of large numbers through eye movement analysis. Some students did not attend to the simulation results and could not make meaningful inferences. It is observed that students keep the existing concept even though they observe the simulation results which are inconsistent with the misconceptions they have. Since probabilistic intuition influence student's thinking very strongly, it is necessary to design a task that allows students to clearly recognize the difference between their erroneous intuitions and simulation results. In addition, we could confirm through eye movements analysis that students could not make meaningful observations and inferences if too much reasoning was needed even though the simulation included a rich context. It is necessary to use visual representations such as graphs to provide immediate feedback to students, to encourage students to attend to the results in a certain intentional way to discover the underlying mathematical structure rather than simply presenting experimental data. Some students focused their attention on the visually salient feature of the experimental results and have made incorrect conclusion. The simulation should be designed so that the patterns of the experimental results that the student must discover are not visually distorted and allow the students to perform a sufficient number of simulations. Based on the results of this study, we suggested that cumulative relative frequency graph showing multiple results at the same time, and the term 'generally tends to get closer' should be used in learning of the law of large numbers. In addition, it was confirmed that eye-tracking method is a useful tool for analyzing interaction in technology-based probabilistic learning.

The Study on Using Spreadsheet in Probability and Statistics Area of High School (고등학교 확률 통계 영역에서 스프레드시트 활용에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-Hak
    • School Mathematics
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.363-384
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    • 2011
  • This study is based on the recognition that the school mathematics education should reinforce the heuristic and constructional aspects related with discoveries of mathematical rules and understanding of mathematical concepts from real world situations as well as the deductive and formal aspects emphasizing on mathematical contents precisely. The 11th grade students of one class from a city high school with average were chosen. They were given time to learn various functions of Excel in regular classes of "Information Society and Computer" subject. They don't have difficulty using cells, mathematical functions and statistical functions in spreadsheet. Experiment was performed for six weeks and there were two hours of classes in a week. Considering the results of this research, teaching materials using spreadsheets play an important role in helping students to experience probabilistic and statistical reasoning and construct mathematical thinking. This implies that teaching materials using spreadsheet provide students with an opportunity to interact with probabilistic and statistical situations by adopting engineering which can encourage students to observe and experience various aspects of real world in authentic situations.

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Operational Availability Improvement through Online Monitoring and Advice For Emergency Diesel Generator

  • Lee, Jong-Beom;Kim, han-Gon;Kim, Byong-Sub;M. Golay;C.W. Kang;Y. Sui
    • Proceedings of the Korean Nuclear Society Conference
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    • 1998.05a
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    • pp.264-270
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    • 1998
  • This research broadens the prime concern of nuclear power plant operations from safe performance to both economic and safe performance. First emergency diesel generator is identified as one of main contributors for the lost plant availability through the review of plants forced outage records. The framework of an integrated architecture for performing modern on-line condition for operational availability improvement is configured in this work. For the development of the comprehensive sensor networks for complex target systems, an integrated methodology incorporating a structural hierarchy, a functional hierarchy, and a fault-system matrix is formulated. The second part of our research is development of intelligent diagnosis and maintenance advisory system, which employs Bayesian Belief networks (BBNs) as a high level reasoning tool incorporating inherent uncertainty use in probabilistic inference. Our prototype diagnosis algorithms are represented explicitly through topological symbols and links between them in a causal direction. As new evidence from sensor network development is entered into the model especially, our advisory of system provides operational advice concerning both availability and safety, so that the operator is able to determine the likely modes, diagnose the system state, locate root causes, and take the most advantageous action. Thereby, this advice improves operational availability

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Concrete bridge deck deterioration model using belief networks

  • Njardardottir, Hrodny;McCabe, Brenda;Thomas, Michael D.A.
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.2 no.6
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    • pp.439-454
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    • 2005
  • When deterioration of concrete is observed in a structure, it is highly desirable to determine the cause of such deterioration. Only by understanding the cause can an appropriate repair strategy be implemented to address both the cause and the symptom. In colder climates, bridge deck deterioration is often caused by chlorides from de-icing salts, which penetrate the concrete and depassivate the embedded reinforcement, causing corrosion. Bridge decks can also suffer from other deterioration mechanisms, such as alkali-silica reaction, freeze-thaw, and shrinkage. There is a need for a comprehensive and integrative system to help with the inspection and evaluation of concrete bridge deck deterioration before decisions are made on the best way to repair it. The purpose of this research was to develop a model to help with the diagnosis of concrete bridge deck deterioration that integrates the symptoms observed during an inspection, various deterioration mechanisms, and the probability of their occurrence given the available data. The model displays the diagnosis result as the probability that one of four deterioration mechanisms, namely shrinkage, corrosion of reinforcement, freeze-thaw and alkali-silica reaction, is at fault. Sensitivity analysis was performed to determine which probabilities in the model require refinement. Two case studies are included in this investigation.