• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.193-199
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• 2000

In many studies, considerable attention has been focussed upon choosing a model which represents underlying process of time series and forecasting the future. In the real world, however, there may be some cases that one model can not reflect all the characteristics of original time series. Under such circumstances, we may get better performance by combining the forecasts from several models. The most popular methods for combining forecasts involve taking a weighted average of multiple forecasts. But the weights are usually unstable. In cases the assumptions of normality and unbiasedness for forecast errors are satisfied, a Bayesian method can be used for updating the weights. In the real world, however, there are many circumstances the Bayesian method is not appropriate. This paper proposes a PNN(Probabilistic Neural Net) approach as a method for combining forecasts that can be applied when the assumption of normality or unbiasedness for forecast errors is not satisfied. In this paper, PNN method, which is similar to Bayesian approach, is suggested as an updating method of the unstable weights in the combination of the forecasts. The PNN method has been usually used in the field of pattern recognition. Unlike the Bayesian approach, it requires no assumption of a specific prior distribution because it gets probabilities by using the distribution estimated from given data. Empirical results reveal that the PNN method offers superior predictive capabilities.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Technology Engineers
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.469-475
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• 2010

The objective of this study is to integrate reliability analysis into shape optimization problem using the evolutionary structural optimization (ESO) in the application example. Reliability-based shape optimization is formulated as volume minimization problem with probabilistic stress constraint under minimization max. von Mises stress and allow stress. Young's modulus, external load and thickness are considered as uncertain variables. In order to compute reliability index, four methods, i.e., reliability index approach (RIA), performance measure approach (PMA), single-loop singlevector (SLSV) and adaptive-loop (ADL), are used. Reliability-based shape optimization design process is conducted to obtain optimal shape satisfying max. von Mises stress and reliability index constraints with the above four methods, and then each result is compared with respect to numerical stability and computing time.

• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.225-233
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• 2012

The research discusses interrelationship of structural and reliability importance measures which used in the probabilistic safety assessment. The most frequently used component importance measures, such as Birnbaum's Importance (BI), Risk Reduction (RR), Risk Reduction Worth (RRW), RA (Risk Achievement), Risk Achievement Worth (RAW), Fussel Vesely (FV) and Critically Importance (CI) can be derived from two structure importance measures that are developed based on the size and the number of Minimal Path Set (MPS) and Minimal Cut Set (MCS). In order to show an effectiveness of importance measures which is developed in this paper, the three representative functional structures, such as series-parallel, k out of n and bridge are used to compare with Birnbaum's Importance measure. In addition, the study presents the implementation examples of Total Productive Maintenance (TPM) metrics and alternating renewal process models with exponential distribution to calculate the availability and unavailability of component facility for improving system performances. System state structure functions in terms of component states can be converted into the system availability (unavailability) functions by substituting the component reliabilities (unavailabilities) for the component states. The applicable examples are presented in order to help the understanding of practitioners.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 2010.04a
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• pp.476-479
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• 2010

In recent years, the deterioration of infrastructures is especially considered. In prestress concrete bridges, one of the important mechanisms of deterioration is the corrosion of the post-tensioned tendon due to environmental agents. In this study, the reliability analysis is performed for a prestress concrete box girder bridge under the pitting corrosion attack with considering the inspection and failure cost. The variation of life-time performance depending on inspection methods have to be quantified. The inspection methods with different accuracy of corrosion detection are presented and applied for model of reliability analysis. The computer program for analysis reliability index of the structure as well as updating process is obtained. An existing bridge is applied for illustrating the influence of inspection cost on the behaviors of structure. Subsequently, the benefit of inspection has shown to predict the time to failure of structure.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Nondestructive Testing
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.119-127
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• 2014

An epoxy coating applied to the concrete surface of a containment building deteriorates in hazardous environments such as those containing radiation, heat, and moisture. Unlike metals, the epoxy coating on a concrete liner absorbs and discharges moisture during the degradations process, so it has a different density and volume during service. In this study, acoustic impedance was adopted for characterizing the degradation of a glass-reinforced epoxy coating using the acoustic reflection coefficient (reflectance) on a rough epoxy coating. For estimating the acoustic reflectance on a wavy epoxy coating surface, a probabilistic model was developed to represent the multiple irregular reflections of the acoustic wave from the wavy surface on the basis of the simulated annealing technique. A number of epoxy-coated concrete specimens were prepared and exposed to accelerated aging conditions to induce an artificial aging degradation in them. The acoustic impedance of the degraded epoxy coating was estimated successfully by minimizing the error between a waveform calculated from the mathematical model and a waveform measured from the surface of the rough coating.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.51 no.3
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• pp.825-836
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• 2019

One of the most challenging safety precautions for workers in dynamic, radioactive environments is avoiding radiation sources and sustaining low exposure. This paper presents a sampling-based algorithm, DL-RRT*, for minimum dose walk-path re-planning in radioactive environments, expedient for occupational workers in nuclear facilities to avoid unnecessary radiation exposure. The method combines the principle of random tree star ($RRT^*$) and $D^*$ Lite, and uses the expansion strength of grid search strategy from $D^*$ Lite to quickly find a high-quality initial path to accelerate convergence rate in $RRT^*$. The algorithm inherits probabilistic completeness and asymptotic optimality from $RRT^*$ to refine the existing paths continually by sampling the search-graph obtained from the grid search process. It can not only be applied to continuous cost spaces, but also make full use of the last planning information to avoid global re-planning, so as to improve the efficiency of path planning in frequently changing environments. The effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method was verified by simulating radiation field under varying obstacles and radioactive environments, and the results were compared with $RRT^*$ algorithm output.

• The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.781-786
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• 2019

We should give a realistic value on the large amounts of relevant data obtained from these studies to achieve effective objectives of the disease study which is dealing with various vital phenomenon today. In this paper, the proposed MKSV algorithm is estimated by optimal probability distribution, and the input pattern is determined. After classifying it into data mining, it is possible to obtain efficient computational quantity and recognition rate. MKSV algorithm is useful for studying the relationship between disease and gene in the present society by simulating the probabilistic flow of gene data and showing fast and effective performance improvement to classify data through the data mining process of big data.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Pressure Vessels and Piping
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.49-58
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• 2018

The regulatory periodic inspection program (PSI) conducted at every overhaul period is the most important process for confirming the safety of nuclear power plants. The PSI for operating nuclear power plants in Korea mainly consist of component level performance check that had been developed based on deterministic approach putting the same degree of importance to all the inspection items. This inspection methodology is likely to be effective for preoperational inspection. However, once the plant is put into service, the PSI must be focused on whether to minimize the risk of accident using defense-in-depth concept and risk insight. The incorporation of defense-in-depth concept and risk insight into the deterministic based safety inspection has not been well studied so far. In this study, two track approaches are proposed to make sure that core damage be avoided: one is to secure success path and the other to block the failure path in a specific event tree of PSA. The investigation shows how to select safety important components and how to set up inspection group to ensure that core damage would not occur for a given initiating event, which results in strengthening defense-in-depth level 3.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.54 no.3
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• pp.896-908
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• 2022

As a part of probabilistic risk (or safety) assessment (PRA or PSA) of nuclear power plants (NPPs), the primary role of human reliability analysis (HRA) is to provide credible estimations of the human error probabilities (HEPs) of safety-critical tasks. In this regard, it is vital to provide credible HEPs based on firm technical underpinnings including (but not limited to): (1) how to collect HRA data from available sources of information, and (2) how to inform HRA practitioners with the collected HRA data. Because of these necessities, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute independently developed two dedicated HRA data collection systems, SACADA (Scenario Authoring, Characterization, And Debriefing Application) and HuREX (Human Reliability data EXtraction), respectively. These systems provide unique frameworks that can be used to secure HRA data from full-scope training simulators of NPPs (i.e., simulator data). In order to investigate the applicability of these two systems, two papers have been prepared with distinct purposes. The first paper, entitled "SACADA and HuREX: Part 1. The Use of SACADA and HuREX Systems to Collect Human Reliability Data", deals with technical issues pertaining to the collection of HRA data. This second paper explains how the two systems are able to inform HRA practitioners. To this end, the process of estimating HEPs is demonstrated based on feed-and-bleed operations using HRA data from the two systems.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.36 no.2
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• pp.133-147
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• 2023

The random vibration of saddle membrane structures under wind load is studied theoretically and experimentally. First, the nonlinear random vibration differential equations of saddle membrane structures under wind loads are established based on von Karman's large deflection theory, thin shell theory and potential flow theory. The probabilistic density function (PDF) and its corresponding statistical parameters of the displacement response of membrane structure are obtained by using the diffusion process theory and the Fokker Planck Kolmogorov equation method (FPK) to solve the equation. Furthermore, a wind tunnel test is carried out to obtain the displacement time history data of the test model under wind load, and the statistical characteristics of the displacement time history of the prototype model are obtained by similarity theory and probability statistics method. Finally, the rationality of the theoretical model is verified by comparing the experimental model with the theoretical model. The results show that the theoretical model agrees with the experimental model, and the random vibration response can be effectively reduced by increasing the initial pretension force and the rise-span ratio within a certain range. The research methods can provide a theoretical reference for the random vibration of the membrane structure, and also be the foundation of structural reliability of membrane structure based on wind-induced response.