• 한국안전학회지
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• 제31권5호
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• pp.187-194
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• 2016

A single fire event within a fire area can cause multiple initiating events considered in internal events probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). For an example, a fire event in turbine building fire area can cause a loss of the main feed-water and loss of off-site power initiating events. This fire initiating event could result in special plant responses beyond the scope of the internal events PSA model. One approach to address a fire initiating event is to develop a specific fire event tree. However, the development of a specific fire event tree is difficult since the number of fire event trees may be several hundreds or more. Thus, internal fire events PSA model has been generally constructed by modifications of the pre-developed internal events PSA model. New accident sequence logics not covered in the internal events PSA model are separately developed to incorporate them into the fire PSA model. Recently, many fire PSA models have fire induced initiating event fault trees not shown in an internal event PSA model. Up to now, there has been no analytical comparative study on the constructions of fire events PSA model using internal events PSA model with and without fault trees of initiating events. In this study, the changing process of internal events PSA model to fire events PSA model is analytically presented and discussed.

• 한국지반공학회지:지반
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• 제9권3호
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• pp.77-90
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• 1993

얕은기초의 침하해석에 관련된 토질정수, 하중 및 지층구조는 많은 불확실성을 내포하고 있어 확률적 특성을 고려한 해석이 필요하다. 본 연구는 Monte Carlo Method를 이용하여 독립후팅들로 구성된 얕은기초의 침하에 관한 확률론적 해석을 하였다. 변수의 불확실성을 고려하기 위하여 토질정수와 하중은 정규분포의 확률변수로 가정하여 독립후팅의 침하평균 및 변동계수를 구하고 각 독립후팅의 침하도 정규분포하는 것으로 가정하였다. 또한 지반내에 존재할 수 있는 연약토질 포켓 (soft soil pocket)의 확률을 고려한 각 독립후팅의 침하는 Markov process를 따르는 것으로 하였다. 이와같은 각 변수들의 변화에 따라 최대침하와 부등칭하의 허용한계 초과확률에 대한 민감도분석을 하였으며, 얕은기초의 침하해석은 각 변수의 불확실성과 지반조건을 고려하는 것이 타당하다고 판단된다.

• 대한조선학회논문집
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• 제56권5호
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• pp.383-388
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• 2019

It is essential to reduce the Infra-red signature for increasing ship's survivability in ship design stage. However the ship's IR signature is quite sensitive to the maritime and atmosphere. Therefore, it is very important to select the marine meteorological data to be applied to the signature analysis. In this study, we selected the three meteorological sample sets from the population of the Korea Meteorological Administration's marine environment data in 2017. These samples were selected through the two-dimensional stratified sampling method, taking into account the geopolitical threats of the Korean peninsula and the effective area of the buoy. These sample sets were applied to three naval ships classified by their tonnage, and then the IR signature analysis was performed to derive the Contrast Radiant Intensity (CRI) values. Based on the CRI values, the validity of each sample set was determined by comparing Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF), and Probability Density Function (PDF). Also, we checked the degree of scattering in each sample set and determined the efficiency of analysis time and cost according to marine meteorological sample sets to confirm the possibility of a probabilistic method. Through this process, we selected the standard for optimization of marine meteorological sample for ship IR signature analysis. Based on this optimization sample, by applying probabilistic method to the management of IR signature for naval ships, the robust design is possible.

• 항공우주시스템공학회지
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• 제14권spc호
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• pp.31-38
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• 2020

항공기의 개발 및 인증 과정에서 중요성이 강조되고 있는 시스템 안전성 평가는 고장 또는 결함으로 인해 발생할 수 있는 위험을 사전에 식별하고, 이에 대한 영향성을 판단하여 요구되는 수준의 안전성을 확보하기 위해 적용하는 시스템 엔지니어링 기법이다. 항공기 시스템이 복잡해지고, 통합적인 기능 및 성능이 요구되면서 항공기 개발 초기부터 적절한 안전성 목표를 수립하고, 체계적인 평가를 통해 이에 대한 검증 및 후속 조치를 이행하여야 한다. 본 논문에서는 고장 데이터의 확률 분석을 수행하는 방안을 제시하여 항공기의 전체 수명주기에 걸쳐 리스크를 진단하고 효율적인 안전성 평가를 수행하기 위한 방법론을 제시하였고, 항공기 인증 및 안전성 확보를 위해 고려해야 할 사항을 제시하였다.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
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• 제34권11호
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• pp.1705-1713
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• 2010

피로시험의 결과가 큰 편차를 보이는 하이브리드 복합재 조인트부에 대해서 통계적 피로수명 평가법을 이용하여 신뢰도 높은 피로수명을 추정하고자 한다. 저상버스 차체에 사용되는 하이브리드 복합재 조인트부를 절취하여 시험대상으로 하였으며, 이 조인트 시편으로 외팔보형 피로굽힘시험을 수행하였다. 피로시험 데이터를 정규분포, 대수정규분포, 와이블 분포를 이용하여 근접시킨 피로수명 곡선들과 각각 비교함으로써 하이브리드 복합재 조인트부의 내구수명 추정에 가장 적합한 확률분포를 선정하였다. 선정된 와이블 확률분포를 이용해 확률-응력-수명(P-S-N) 곡선을 구함으로써 하이브리드 복합재 조인트부에 대한 통계적 수명예측 평가절차와 신뢰성설계의 기초자료를 제시하였다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제54권1호
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• pp.110-116
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• 2022

Human failure event (HFE) dependency analysis is a part of human reliability analysis (HRA). For efficient HFE dependency analysis, a maximum number of minimal cut sets (MCSs) that have HFE combinations are generated from the fault trees for the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear power plants (NPPs). After collecting potential HFE combinations, dependency levels of subsequent HFEs on the preceding HFEs in each MCS are analyzed and assigned as conditional probabilities. Then, HFE recovery is performed to reflect these conditional probabilities in MCSs by modifying MCSs. Inappropriate HFE dependency analysis and HFE recovery might lead to an inaccurate core damage frequency (CDF). Using the above process, HFE recovery is performed on MCSs that are generated with a non-zero truncation limit, where many MCSs that have HFE combinations are truncated. As a result, the resultant CDF might be underestimated. In this paper, a new method is suggested to incorporate HFE recovery into the MCS generation stage. Compared to the current approach with a separate HFE recovery after MCS generation, this new method can (1) reduce the total time and burden for MCS generation and HFE recovery, (2) prevent the truncation of MCSs that have dependent HFEs, and (3) avoid CDF underestimation. This new method is a simple but very effective means of performing MCS generation and HFE recovery simultaneously and improving CDF accuracy. The effectiveness and strength of the new method are clearly demonstrated and discussed with fault trees and HFE combinations that have joint probabilities.

• 한국국방경영분석학회지
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• 제6권2호
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• pp.151-184
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• 1980

Simple models for a defense consisting of a preinstalled mine field possibly defended by an anti-tank weapon are derived and analyzed. This paper uses a special Poisson process to model the one or two positions of mines in the mine field. The duel between the anti-tank weapon and offensive tanks crossing the field is modeled with a continuous time Markov chain. Some algebraic solutions and numerical results are obtained for specific scenarios.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제9권13호
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• pp.39-43
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• 1986

This thesis aims to find an optimal inventory of probabilistic model with an exponential decay. This system is divided into the production period and non-production period and the behavior of each period is analyzed by birth and death process. The result of this analysis gives how to decide the economic production quantity and the optimal production cycle.

• 한국공작기계학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국공작기계학회 2004년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.287-292
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• 2004

In this study, we made a comparative study of backpropagation neural network and probabilistic neural network and bayesian classifier and perceptron as shape recognition algorithm of welding flaws. For this purpose, variables are applied the same to four algorithms. Here, feature variable is composed of time domain signal itself and frequency domain signal itself, Through this process, we confirmed advantages/disadvantages of four algorithms and identified application methods of few algorithms.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제13권2호
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• pp.1-8
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• 1988

This study suggests on optimal process when decision maker is confronted with expert's biased information under the situation that the bias is caused mainly by the difference of their interest. In order to make honest transmission of expert's probabilistic information, the concept of expert use and scoring rule to provide expert with an incentive is used in this paper. And expected regret concept is introduced to evaluate the value of expert's information. A simple example is also shown.