• Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
• /
• 2006.03a
• /
• pp.1148-1154
• /
• 2006

Composite discharge capacity tests and smear effect tests are carried out to estimate the parameters for the reliability-based design of vertical drain method. Also the probabilistic and deterministic solutions of radial consolidation theory are presented. It compared to the result of reliability-based design and that of deterministic design using the tested and estimated parameters. The results indicated that the drain spacing is larger the deterministic method than the probabilistic method because the former is not considered the uncertainties in the properties of soil. The divergence of methods is dependent on the probability of achieving target degree of consolidation by a given time and the coefficient of variation(COV) of the coefficient of horizontal consolidation$(c_h)$.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
• /
• 2005.06a
• /
• pp.1682-1685
• /
• 2005

System algorithms estimated by deterministic input may occur the error between predicted and actual output. Especially, actual system can't predict the exact outputs due to uncertainty and tolerance of input parameters. A single output to a set of inputs has a limited value without the variation. Hence, we should consider various scatters caused by the load assessment, material characteristics, stress analysis and manufacturing methods in order to perform the robust design or estimate the reliability of structure. The system design with uncertainty should perform the probabilistic structural optimization with the statistical response and the reliability. This method calculated the probability distributions of the characteristics such as stress by combining stress analysis, response surface methodology and Monte-Carlo Method and got the probabilistic sensitivity. The sensitivity of structural response with respect to inconstant design variables was estimated by fracture probability. Therefore, this paper proposed the probabilistic reliability design method for fracture of uncorved freight end beam and the design criteria by fracture probability.

• Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
• /
• 2010.03a
• /
• pp.475-479
• /
• 2010

For a rational evaluation of the spatial distribution of consolidation settlement, it is necessary to adopt probabilistic method. In this study, mean and standard deviation of consolidation settlement of whole analysis region are evaluated by using the spatial distribution of consolidation layer which is estimated from kriging and statistics of soil properties. Using these results and probabilistic method, the area need to be raised the ground level for balancing the final design ground level are determined.

• Smart Structures and Systems
• /
• v.10 no.2
• /
• pp.89-110
• /
• 2012

This study was intended to efficiently perform the probabilistic optimal safety assessment of steel cable-stayed bridges (SCS bridges) using stochastic finite element analysis (SFEA) and expected life-cycle cost (LCC) concept. To that end, advanced probabilistic finite element algorithm (APFEA) which enables to execute the static and dynamic SFEA considering aleatory uncertainties contained in random variable was developed. APFEA is the useful analytical means enabling to conduct the reliability assessment (RA) in a systematic way by considering the result of SFEA based on linearity and nonlinearity of before or after introducing initial tensile force. The appropriateness of APFEA was verified in such a way of comparing the result of SFEA and that of Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). The probabilistic method was set taking into account of analytical parameters. The dynamic response characteristic by probabilistic method was evaluated using ASFEA, and RA was carried out using analysis results, thereby quantitatively calculating the probabilistic safety. The optimal design was determined based on the expected LCC according to the results of SFEA and RA of alternative designs. Moreover, given the potential epistemic uncertainty contained in safety index, failure probability and minimum LCC, the sensitivity analysis was conducted and as a result, a critical distribution phase was illustrated using a cumulative-percentile.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
• /
• 2008.04a
• /
• pp.65-70
• /
• 2008

The capacity spectrum method (CSM) is a deterministic seismic analysis approach wherein the expected seismic response of a structure is established as the intersection of the demand and capacity curves. Recently, there are a few studies about a probabilistic CSM where uncertainties in design factors such as material properties, loads, and ground motion are being considered. However, researches show that soil-structure interaction also affects the seismic responses of structures. Thus, their uncertainties should also be taken into account. Therefore, this paper presents a probabilistic approach of using the CSM for seismic analysis considering uncertainties in soil properties. For application, a reinforced concrete bridge column structure is employed as a test model. Considering the randomness of the various design parameters, the structure's probability of failure is obtained. Monte Carlo importance sampling is used as the tool to assess the structure's reliability when subjected to earthquakes. In this study, probabilistic CSM with and without consideration of soil uncertainties are compared and analyzed. Results show that the analysis considering soil structure interaction yields to a greater probability of failure, and thus can lead to a more conservative structural design.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• v.55 no.6
• /
• pp.2047-2052
• /
• 2023

Risk-informed approach has been widely applied in the safety design, regulation, and operation of nuclear reactors. It has been commonly accepted that risk-informed design optimization should be used in the innovative reactor designs to make nuclear system highly safe and reliable. In spite of the risk-informed approach has been used in some advanced nuclear reactors designs, such as Westinghouse IRIS, Gen-IV sodium fast reactors and lead-based fast reactors, the process of risk-informed design of nuclear reactors is hardly to carry out when passive system reliability should be integrated in the framework. A practical method for new passive safety reactors based on probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) and passive system reliability analyze linking is proposed in this paper. New three-dimension frequency-consequence curve based on risk concept with three variables is used in this method. The proposed method has been applied to the determination optimization of design options selection in a 10 MWth lead-based research reactor(LR) to obtain one optimized system design in conceptual design stage, using the integrated reliability and probabilistic safety assessment program RiskA, and the computation resources and time consumption in this process was demonstrated reasonable and acceptable.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
• /
• v.10 no.6
• /
• pp.709-726
• /
• 2016

Corrugated-core sandwich panels are prevalent for many applications in industries. The researches performed with the aim of optimization of such structures in the literature have considered a deterministic approach. However, it is believed that deterministic optimum points may lead to high-risk designs instead of optimum ones. In this paper, an effort has been made to provide a reliable and robust design of corrugated-core sandwich structures through stochastic and probabilistic multi-objective optimization approach. The optimization is performed using a coupling between genetic algorithm (GA), Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and finite element method (FEM). To this aim, Prob. Design module in ANSYS is employed and using a coupling between optimization codes in MATLAB and ANSYS, a connection has been made between numerical results and optimization process. Results in both cases of deterministic and probabilistic multi-objective optimizations are illustrated and compared together to gain a better understanding of the best sandwich panel design by taking into account reliability and robustness. Comparison of results with a similar deterministic optimization study demonstrated better reliability and robustness of optimum point of this study.

• International Journal of Railway
• /
• v.6 no.2
• /
• pp.45-52
• /
• 2013

Railway construction needs vast soil investigation for its infrastructure foundation designs along the planned railway path to identify the design parameters for stability and serviceability checks. The soil investigation data are usually classified and grouped to decide design input parameters per each construction section and budget estimates. Deterministic design method which most civil engineer and practitioner are familiar with has a clear limitation in construction/maintenance budget control, and occasionally produced overdesigned or unsafe design problems. Instead of using a batch type analysis with predetermined input parameters, data population collected from site soil investigation and design load condition can be statistically estimated for the mean and variance to present the feature of data distribution and optimized with a best fitting probability function. Probabilistic approach using entire feature of design input data enables to predict the worst, best and most probable cases based on identified ranges of soil and load data, which will help railway designer select construction method to save the time and cost. This paper introduces two Monte Carlo simulations actually applied on estimation of retaining wall external stability and long term settlement of organic soil in soil investigation area for a recent high speed railway project.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
• /
• v.49 no.6
• /
• pp.93-101
• /
• 2007

In general, geotechnical properties have many uncertain aspects, thus probabilistic analysis have been used to consider these aspects. It is, however, quite difficult to select an appropriate target probability for a certain structure or construction process. In this study, minimum expected cost design method based on probabilistic analysis is suggested for design of vertical drains generally used to accelerate consolidation in soft clayey soils. A sensitivity analysis is performed to select the most important uncertain parameters for the design of vertical drains. Monte Carlo simulation is used in sensitivity analysis and probabilistic analysis. Total expected cost, defined as the sum of initial cost and expected additive cost, varies widely with variation of input parameters used in design of vertical drain systems. And probability of failure to get the minimum total expected cost varies under the different design conditions. A minimum value of total expected cost is suggested as a design value in this study. The proposed design concept is applicable to unit construction process because this approach is to consider the uncertainties using probabilistic analysis and uncertainties of geotechnical properties.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
• /
• 2006.04a
• /
• pp.275-282
• /
• 2006

System algorithms estimated by deterministic input may occur the error between predicted and actual output. Especially, actual system can't predict the exact outputs due to uncertainty and tolernce of input parameters. A single output to a set of inputs has a limited value without the variation. Hence, we should consider various scatters caused by the load assessment, material characteristics, stress analysis and manufacturing methods in order to perform the robust design or etimate the reliability of structure. The system design with uncertainty should perform the probabilistic structural optimization with the statistical response and the reliability. This method calculated the probability distributions of the characteristics such as stress by combining stress analysis, response surface methodology and Monte Carlo simulation and got the probabilistic sensitivity. The sensitivity of structural response with respect to in constant design variables was estimated by fracture probability. Therefore, this paper proposed the probabilistic reliability design method for fracture of uncorved freight end beam and the design criteria by fracture probability.