• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.169-177
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• 2015

We develop a model to predict typhoons in Korea. We collect data for typhoons and classify those depending on the severity level. Following a Bayesian approach, we develop a model that explains the relationship between different levels of typhoons. Through the analysis of the model, we can predict the rate of typhoons, the probability of approaching Korean peninsular, and the probability of striking Korean peninsular. We show that the uncertainty for the occurrence of various types of typhoons reduces dramatically by adaptively updating model parameters as we acquire data.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제15권1호
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• pp.173-181
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• 2004

In this paper, we study and examine the sensitivity of the fuzzy-Bayes method whose properties are relatively not known much. Two fuzzy conditions and two actions are considered. Also some normal distributions and uniform distributions are assumed as a prior distribution for a parameter in the fuzzy-Bayes method.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제9권3호
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• pp.725-732
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• 2002

P-values are often perceived as measurements of degree of compatibility between the current data and the hypothesized model. In this paper, a new concept of Bayesian p-values is proposed and studied under the non-informative prior distributions, which can be thought as the Bayesian counterparts of the classical p-values in the sense of using the concept of significance level. The performances of the proposed Bayesian p-values are compared with those of the classical p-values through several examples.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.787-795
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• 2001

In this paper, Bayesian hypothesis testing procedures are proposed under the non-informative prior distributions, which can be thought as the Bayesian counterparts of the classical ones in the sense of using the concept of significance level. The performances of proposed procedures are compared with those of classical procedures through several examples.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• 제25권4호
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• pp.577-588
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• 1996

The Bayes factor provides a possible hierarchical Bayesian approach for studying the change point problems. A hypothesis for testing change versus no change is considered using predictive distributions. When the underlying distribution is in one-parameter exponential family with conjugate priors, Bayes factors are investigated to the hypothesis above. Finally one example is provided .

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제7권1호
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• pp.165-178
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• 2000

Bayesian methods are considered for the multiple caputure-recapture data. Reference priors are developed for such model and sampling-based approach through Gibbs sampler is used for inference from posterior distributions. Furthermore approximate Bayes factors are obtained for model selection between trap and nontrap response models. Finally one methodology is implemented for a capture-recapture model in generated data and real data.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• 제31권4호
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• pp.509-518
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• 2002

This paper is concerned with semiparametric Bayesian analysis of the proportional intensity regression model of the Poisson process for multiple event time data. A nonparametric prior distribution is put on the baseline cumulative intensity function and a usual parametric prior distribution is given to the regression parameter. Also we allow heterogeneity among the intensity processes in different subjects by using unobserved random frailty components. Gibbs sampling approach with the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is used to explore the posterior distributions. Finally, the results are applied to a real data set.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제18권4호
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• pp.1191-1203
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• 2007

In this paper, we consider the hypothesis testing for the homogeneity of the shape parameters in the gamma distributions. The noninformative priors such as Jeffreys# prior or reference prior are usually improper which yields a calibration problem that makes the Bayes factor to be defined up to a multiplicative constant. So we propose the objective Bayesian testing procedure for the homogeneity of the shape parameters based on the fractional Bayes factor and the intrinsic Bayes factor under the reference prior. Simulation study and a real data example are provided.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제16권4호
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• pp.1067-1078
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• 2005

In this paper, we develop the noninformative priors for the exponential models when the parameter of interest is the difference of two means. We develop the first and second order matching priors. We reveal that the second order matching priors do not exist. It turns out that Jeffreys' prior does not satisfy the first order matching criterion. The Bayesian credible intervals based on the first order matching meet the frequentist target coverage probabilities much better than the frequentist intervals of Jeffreys' prior.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.141-150
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• 2003

본 논문은 베이즈인자(Bayes factor)를 이용하여 정상(stationary) AR(1)모형의 자기회귀계수에 대해 다중검정하는 방법을 제시한다. 모수들에 대한 사전분포로는 무정보 사전분포(noninformative prior distribution)를 가정한다. 이러한 경우에 통상적으로 사용되는 베이즈인자를 근사없이 정확히 계산하여 각 모형에 대한 사후확률(posterior probability)을 얻는다. 최종적으로 모의실험 자료 및 실제 자료에 적용하여 이론의 결과가 잘 부합되는지를 검토한다.