• 한국도로학회논문집
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• 제19권2호
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• pp.35-44
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• 2017

PURPOSES: This study suggests a specific methodology for the prediction of road surface temperature using vehicular ambient temperature sensors. In addition, four kind of models is developed based on machine learning algorithms. METHODS : Thermal Mapping System is employed to collect road surface and vehicular ambient temperature data on the defined survey route in 2015 and 2016 year, respectively. For modelling, all types of collected temperature data should be classified into response and predictor before applying a machine learning tool such as MATLAB. In this study, collected road surface temperature are considered as response while vehicular ambient temperatures defied as predictor. Through data learning using machine learning tool, models were developed and finally compared predicted and actual temperature based on average absolute error. RESULTS : According to comparison results, model enables to estimate actual road surface temperature variation pattern along the roads very well. Model III is slightly better than the rest of models in terms of estimation performance. CONCLUSIONS : When correlation between response and predictor is high, when plenty of historical data exists, and when a lot of predictors are available, estimation performance of would be much better.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제29권1호
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• pp.257-266
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• 2016

비선형 모형인 확률계수 자기회귀 모형의 모수를 추정하기 위해 전체 데이터를 부표본으로 나누어 확률계수 ${\phi}(t)$가 초기값, ${\phi}(0)$를 갖는 특별한 경우를 제안하고 추정하였다. 모의 실험으로 부표본으로 나누어 확률계수 자기회귀 모형을 추정하는 더 바람직함을 확인하였다. 실증분석에서는 한국 Mumps 자료를 선형 모형인 자기회귀 모형과 확률 계수 자기회귀 모형에 각각 적합시켜 모수를 추정하고, PRESS 값을 비교하여 확률계수 자기회귀 모형의 예측이 더 우수함을 보였다.

• 한국소음진동공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국소음진동공학회 2012년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.630-635
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• 2012

Nearfield acoustic holography method predicts an unmeasured sound field, therefore it depends on its prediction methods. In particular, if one has radiators or scatters, which cannot be expressed by simple geometry, then inverse boundary element method (BEM) is normally employed to reconstruct the sound field induced by sound sources with irregular profiles. The characteristics of boundary element, including the element shape, characteristic length, order of shape function and others, affect the reconstruction error. Investigating the errors by means of changing these factors will provide a guide line for selecting appropriate factors, associated with the elements of BEM. These factors are investigated by numerical simulations, and the accuracies with respect to the variant factors are compared. Novel suggestions for selecting appropriate boundary element factors are described based on the simulation results.

• Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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• 제43권3호
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• pp.229-236
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• 2018

Purpose: Makgeolli is a traditional alcoholic beverage made from rice with a fermentation starter called "nuruk." The concentration of alcohol in makgeolli depends on the temperature of the fermentation tank. It is important to monitor the alcohol concentration to manage the makgeolli production process. Methods: Data were collected from 84 makgeolli fermentation tanks over a year period. Independent variables included the temperatures of the tanks and the room where the tanks were located, as well as the quantity, acidity, and water concentration of the source. Software for the multilayer perceptron model (MLP) was written in Python using the Scikit-learn library. Results: Many models were created for which the optimization converged within 100 iterations, and their coefficients of determination $R^2$ were considerably high. The coefficient of determination $R^2$ of the best model with the training set and the test set were 0.94 and 0.93, respectively. The fact that the difference between them was very small indicated that the model was not overfitted. The maximum and minimum error was approximately 2% and the total MSE was 0.078%. Conclusions: The MLP model could help predict the alcohol concentration and to control the production process of makgeolli. In future research, the optimization of the production process will be studied based on the model.

• 대기
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• 제21권2호
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• pp.151-162
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• 2011

One-layer solar radiation(GWNU; Gangneung-Wonju National University) model is developed in order to resolve the lack of vertical observations and fast calculation with high resolution. GWNU model is based on IQBAL(Iqbal, 1983) and NREL(National Renewable Energy Laboratory) methods and corrected by precise multi-layer LBL(Line-by-line) model. Input data were used 42 atmospheric profiles from Garand et al.(2001) for calculation of global radiation by the Multi-layer and one-layer solar radiation models. GWNU model has error of about -0.10% compared with LBL model while IQBAL and NREL models have errors of about -3.92 and -2.57%, respectively. Global solar radiation was calculated by corrected GWNU solar model with satellites(MODIS, OMI and MTSAT-1R), RDPS model prediction data in Korea peninsula in 2009, and the results were compared to surface solar radiation observed by 22 KMA solar sites. All models have correlation($R^2$) of 0.91 with the observed hourly solar radiation, and root mean square errors of IQBAL, NREL and GWNU models are 69.16, 69.74 and $67.53W/m^2$, respectively.

• 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
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• 제22권7호
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• pp.63-74
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• 2017

Recently in the area of ICT, the M2M and IoT are in the spotlight as a cutting edge technology with the help of advancement of internet. Among those fields, the smart home is the closest area to our daily lives. Smart home has the purpose to lead a user more convenient living in the house with WLAN (Wireless Local Area Network) or other short-range communication environments using automated appliances. With an arrival of the age of IoT, this can be described as one axis of a variety of applications as for the M2H (Machine to Home) field in M2M. In this paper, we propose a novel technique for estimating the location of a terminal that freely move within a specified area using the RSSI (Received Signal Strength Indication) in the WLAN environment. In order to perform the location estimation, the Fingerprint and KNN methods are utilized and the LMS with the gradient descent method and the proposed algorithm are also used through the error correction functions for locating the real-time position of a moving user who is keeping a smart terminal. From the estimated location, the nearest fixed devices which are general electric appliances were supposed to work appropriately for self-operating of virtual smart home. Through the experiments, connection and operation success rate, and the performance results are analyzed, presenting the verification results.

• 융합보안논문지
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• 제11권3호
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• pp.19-24
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• 2011

소프트웨어 고장 시간은 테스팅 시간과 관계없이 일정하거나, 단조증가 혹은 단조 감소 추세를 가지고 있다. 이러한 소프트웨어 신뢰모형들을 분석하기 위한 자료척도로 자료에 대한 추세 검정이 개발되어 있다. 추세 분석에는 산술평균 검정과 라플라스 추세 검정 등이 있다. 추세분석들은 전체적인 자료의 개요의 정보만 제공한다. 본 논문에서는 고장시간을 측정하다가 시간 절단이 될 경우에 미래의 고장 시간 예측에 관하여 연구 하였다. 시계열 분석에 이용되는 단순이동 평균법과 가중이동평균법, 지수평활법을 이용하여 미래고장 시간을 예측하여 비교하고자 한다. 실증분석에서는 고장간격 자료를 이용하여 모형들에 대한 예측값을 평균자승오차를 이용하여 비교하고 효율적 모형을 선택 하였다.

• Advances in Energy Research
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• 제6권2호
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• pp.91-101
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• 2019

This paper proposes an efficient data-driven approach to build models for predicting energy consumption in buildings. Data used in this research is collected by installing humidity and temperature sensors at different locations in a building. In addition to this, weather data from nearby weather station is also included in the dataset to study the impact of weather conditions on energy consumption. One of the main emphasize of this research is to make feature selection independent of domain knowledge. Therefore, to extract useful features from data, two different approaches are tested: one is feature selection through principal component analysis and second is relative importance-based feature selection in original domain. The regression model used in this research is gradient boosting regression and its optimal parameters are chosen through a two staged coarse-fine search approach. In order to evaluate the performance of model, different performance evaluation metrics like r2-score and root mean squared error are used. Results have shown that best performance is achieved, when relative importance-based feature selection is used with gradient boosting regressor. Results of proposed technique has also outperformed the results of support vector machines and neural network-based approaches tested on the same dataset.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제43권2호
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• pp.137-145
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• 2020

Various elements of Fabrication (FAB), mass production of existing products, new product development and process improvement evaluation might increase the complexity of production process when products are produced at the same time. As a result, complex production operation makes it difficult to predict production capacity of facilities. In this environment, production forecasting is the basic information used for production plan, preventive maintenance, yield management, and new product development. In this paper, we tried to develop a multiple linear regression analysis model in order to improve the existing production capacity forecasting method, which is to estimate production capacity by using a simple trend analysis during short time periods. Specifically, we defined overall equipment effectiveness of facility as a performance measure to represent production capacity. Then, we considered the production capacities of interrelated facilities in the FAB production process during past several weeks as independent regression variables in order to reflect the impact of facility maintenance cycles and production sequences. By applying variable selection methods and selecting only some significant variables, we developed a multiple linear regression forecasting model. Through a numerical experiment, we showed the superiority of the proposed method by obtaining the mean residual error of 3.98%, and improving the previous one by 7.9%.

• Journal of electromagnetic engineering and science
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• 제16권2호
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• pp.80-86
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• 2016

This paper proposes the algorithm for forward link adaptive coding and modulation (ACM) and the detailed design for a satellite communication system to improve network reliability and system throughput. In the ACM scheme, the coding and modulation schemes are changed by as much as the channel can provide depending on the quality of the communication link. To implement the forward link ACM system in the Ka-band, channel prediction and modulation/coding decision methods are proposed and simulated. The parameters of the adaptive filter predictor based on the least mean square are optimized, the minimum mean square error of the channel predictor is 0.0608 when step size and the number of filter tap are 0.0001 and 4, respectively. A test-bed is set up to verify the forward link ACM system, and a test is performed using a Ka-band satellite (i.e., Communication, Ocean, and Meteorological Satellite [COMS]). This test verifies that the ACM scheme can increase the system throughput.