• Title/Summary/Keyword: prediction equation.

Search Result 1,882, Processing Time 0.029 seconds

Simulation-Based Stochastic Markup Estimation System $(S^2ME)$ (시뮬레이션을 기반(基盤)으로 하는 영업이윤율(營業利潤率) 추정(推定) 시스템)

  • Yi, Chang-Yong;Kim, Ryul-Hee;Lim, Tae-Kyung;Kim, Wha-Jung;Lee, Dong-Eun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
    • /
    • 2007.11a
    • /
    • pp.109-113
    • /
    • 2007
  • This paper introduces a system, Simulation based Stochastic Markup Estimation System (S2ME), for estimating optimum markup for a project. The system was designed and implemented to better represent the real world system involved in construction bidding. The findings obtained from the analysis of existing assumptions used in the previous quantitative markup estimation methods were incorporated to improve the accuracy and predictability of the S2ME. The existing methods has four categories of assumption as follows; (1) The number of competitors and who is the competitors are known, (2) A typical competitor, who is fictitious, is assumed for easy computation, (3) the ratio of bid price against cost estimate (B/C) is assumed to follow normal distribution, (4) The deterministic output obtained from the probabilistic equation of existing models is assumed to be acceptable. However, these assumptions compromise the accuracy of prediction. In practice, the bidding patterns of the bidders are randomized in competitive bidding. To complement the lack of accuracy contributed by these assumptions, bidding project was randomly selected from the pool of bidding database in the simulation experiment. The probability to win the bid in the competitive bidding was computed using the profile of the competitors appeared in the selected bidding project record. The expected profit and probability to win the bid was calculated by selecting a bidding record randomly in an iteration of the simulation experiment under the assumption that the bidding pattern retained in historical bidding DB manifest revival. The existing computation, which is handled by means of deterministic procedure, were converted into stochastic model using simulation modeling and analysis technique as follows; (1) estimating the probability distribution functions of competitors' B/C which were obtained from historical bidding DB, (2) analyzing the sensitivity against the increment of markup using normal distribution and actual probability distribution estimated by distribution fitting, (3) estimating the maximum expected profit and optimum markup range. In the case study, the best fitted probability distribution function was estimated using the historical bidding DB retaining the competitors' bidding behavior so that the reliability was improved by estimating the output obtained from simulation experiment.

  • PDF

Prediction of Preliminary Pogo Instability on a Space Launch Vehicle (예비설계 단계 우주발사체의 공급/추진계 모델을 이용한 포고 불안정성 예측)

  • Lee, SangGu;Sim, JiSoo;Shin, SangJoon;Seo, Yongjun;Ann, Sungjun;Song, Huiseong;Kim, Youdan
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers
    • /
    • v.21 no.6
    • /
    • pp.64-72
    • /
    • 2017
  • The longitudinal dynamic instability which can occur in the fueling process of a space launch vehicle is called pogo. It is caused by coupling between the fuselage and propulsion system and they would be formed as a closed-loop system. so that the amplitude of the response may increase or decrease. In this paper, a mathematical model which is applicable to the systematic pogo analysis of a general launch vehicle is developed for an example of space shuttle. The formulations are composed of the linearized second-order differential equation for the propulsion system, and of the pressure, weight displacement, and generalized displacement. Those are important parameters for pogo analysis, are derived through eigenvalue analysis. By the formulation suggested in this paper, it is expected that mathematical modeling method of the pogo system can be obtained and systematic pogo stability analysis for any launch vehicle will be enabled.

A Potential-Based Panel Method for the Analysis of A Two-Dimensional Super-Cavitating Hydrofoil (양력판(揚力板) 이론(理論)에 의(依)한 2차원(次元) 수중익(水中翼)의 초월(超越) 공동(空洞) 문제(問題) 해석(解析))

  • Y.G. Kim;C.S. Lee;J.T. Lee
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
    • /
    • v.28 no.2
    • /
    • pp.159-173
    • /
    • 1991
  • This paper describes a potential-based panel method formulated for the analysis of a super-cavitating two-dimensional hydrofoil. The method employs normal dipoles and sources distributed on the foil and cavity surfaces to represent the potential flow around the cavitating hydrofoil. The kinematic boundary condition on the wetted portion of the foil surface is satisfied by requiring that the total potential vanish in the fictitious inner flow region of the foil, and the dynamic boundary condition on the cavity surface is satisfied by requiring thats the potential vary linearly, i.e., the tangential velocity be constant. Green's theorem then results in a potential-based integral equation rather than the usual velocity-based formulation of Hess & Smith type. With the singularities distributed on the exact hydrofoil surface, the pressure distributions are predicted with improved accuracy compared to those of the linearized lilting surface theory, especially near the leading edge. The theory then predicts the cavity shape and cavitation number for an assumed cavity length. To improve the accuracy, the sources and dipoles on the cavity surface are moved to the newly computed cavity surface, where the boundary conditions are satisfied again. This iteration process is repeated until the results are converged. Characteristics of iteration and discretization of the present numerical method are much faster and more stable than the existing nonlinear theories. The theory shows good correlations with the existing theories and experimental results for the super-cavitating flow. In the region of small angles of attack, the present prediction shows and excellent comparison with the Geurst's linear theory. For the long cavity, the method recovers the trends of the Wu's nonlinear theory. In the intermediate regions of the short super-cavitation, the method compares very well with the experimental results of Parkin and also those of Silberman.

  • PDF

Development of Two Dimensional Blade Section with High Efficiency for Marine Propeller (선박 프로펠러용 고효율 2차원 날개단면 개발)

  • Na, Yun-Cheol;Song, In-Haeng;Ahn, Jong-Woo
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
    • /
    • v.34 no.1
    • /
    • pp.11-23
    • /
    • 1997
  • This paper contains a new approach to blade section design method for marine propellers. The hydrodynamic characteristics of 2-D section are highly influenced by its geometrical parameters i.e., thickness and camber distributions and leading edge radius etc. To consider fully turbulent flow field near 2-D section. the finite volume method with k-${\varepsilon}$ turbulent model which solve Reynolds time averaged Navier-Stokes(RANS) equation is applied. In this study, O-type grid system that can provide many calculation points on blade surface is used. The results were compared with those of the experiment of NACA0012 to confirm the accuracy of the developed codes. The goal of this study is the development of a blade section with high efficiency and low drag. To achieve this, we carried out the tests of lift, drag and cavitation characteristics in cavitation tunnel. The results of experiment were compared with numerical results in order to validate the proposed blades design method. By comparing the numerical results with the experiments, we found that the new blade section, KH28 allows superior performance in efficiency and cavitation avoidance characteristics. We further investigated the blade section design method and an application study of this section, KH28 to apply to the marine propeller. In order to improve the accuracy of numerical results on prediction of lift and drag, we conclude here that the 2-layer boundary model must be used.

  • PDF

Prediction on the Quality of Forage Crop Seeded in Spring by Near Infrared Reflectance Spectroscopy (NIRS) (근적외선 분광법에 의한 춘계 파종 사초의 성분추정)

  • Lee, Hyo-Won
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
    • /
    • v.31 no.4
    • /
    • pp.409-414
    • /
    • 2011
  • This study was conducted to find out an alternative way of rapid and accurate analysis of forage quality. Near Infrared Reflectance Spectroscopy (NIRS) was used to evaluate the possibility of forage analysis. 175 samples consisted of Italian ryegrass, whole crop barley and pea seeded spring in 2009 were collected. The samples were analyzed for moisture, crude protein (CP), crude ash (CA), acid detergent fiber (ADF), and neutral detergent fiber (NDF), and also scanned using NIRSystem with wavelength from 400~2,500 nm. Multiple linear regression was used with wet analysis data for developing the calibration model and validated unknown samples. The important index in this experiment were SEC, SEP. The r2 value for moisture, CP, CA, ADF, and NDF in calibration set was 0.65, 0.97, 0.93, 0.99, and 0.97 and also was 0.15, 0.94, 0.96, 0.98 and 0.98 in validation set, respectively. The results of this experiment indicates that NIRS was reliable analytical method to assess forage quality for CP, CA ADF and NDF except moisture content in forage when proper samples incorporated into the equation development.

The Relation between Pullout Load and Compressive Strength of Ultra-High-Strength Concrete (초고강도 콘크리트의 인발하중과 압축강도와의 관계)

  • Ko, Hune-Beom;Kim, Ki-Tae
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
    • /
    • v.18 no.1
    • /
    • pp.17-24
    • /
    • 2018
  • The pullout test, a nondestructive testing(NDT), for pre-installed inserts is perhaps the most widely used technique to estimate the in-situ compressive strength of concrete. It measures the force needed to pullout a standardized metal insert embedded into concrete members. The pullout test was certified by the American Society for Testing and Materials(ASTM) and Canadian Standards Association(CSA) as a reliable method for determining the strength of concrete in concrete structures under construction. To easily estimate the strength of ultra-high-strength concrete, a simplified pullout tester, primarily composed of a standard 12mm bolt with a groove on the shaft as a break-off bolt, an insert nut, and a hydraulic oil pump without a load cell, was proposed. Four wall and two slab specimens were tested for two levels of concrete strength, 80MPa and 100MPa, using a simplified pullout tester with a load cell to verify the advantages of the pullout test and simplified pullout test. The compressive strength of concrete, pullout load, and the rupture of the break-off bolt were measured 11 times, day 1 to 7, 14, 21, 28, and 90. The correlation of the pullout load and the compressive strength of each specimen show a higher degree of reliability. Therefore, a simplified pullout test can be used to evaluate the in-place strength of ultra-high-strength concrete in structures. The prediction equation for the groove diameter of the break-off bolt(y) with the concrete strength(x) was proposed as y=0.0184x+5.4. The results described in this research confirm the simplified pullout's utility and potential for low cost, simplicity, and convenience.

Cashew reject meal in diets of laying chickens: nutritional and economic suitability

  • Akande, Taiwo O;Akinwumi, Akinyinka O;Abegunde, Taye O
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
    • /
    • v.57 no.5
    • /
    • pp.17.1-17.6
    • /
    • 2015
  • The present study investigated the nutritional and economic suitability of cashew reject meal (full fat and defatted) as replacement for groundnut cake (GNC) in the diets of laying chickens. A total of eighty four brown shavers at 25 weeks of age were randomly allotted into seven dietary treatments each containing 6 replicates of 2 birds each. The seven diets prepared included diet 1, a control with GNC at $220gkg^{-1}$ as main protein source in the diet. Diets 2, 3 and 4 consist of gradual replacement of GNC with defatted cashew reject meal (DCRM) at 50%, 75% and 100% on weight for weight basis respectively while diets 5, 6 and 7 consist of gradual inclusion of full fat cashew reject meal (FCRM) to replace 25%, 35% and 50% of GNC protein respectively. Each group was allotted a diet in a completely randomized design in a study that lasted eight weeks during which records of the chemical constituent of the test ingredients, performance characteristics, egg quality traits and economic indicators were measured. Results showed that the crude protein were 22.10 and 35.4% for FCRM and DCRM respectively. Gross energy of DCRM was 5035 kcal/kg compared to GNC, 4752 kcal/kg. Result of aflatoxin $B_1$ revealed moderate level between 10 and $17{\mu}g/Kg$ in DCRM and GNC samples respectively. Birds on control gained 10 g, while those on DCRM and FCRM gained about 35 g and 120 g respectively. Feed intake declined (P < 0.05) with increased level of FCRM. Hen day production was highest in birds fed DCRM, followed by control and lowest value (P < 0.05) was recorded for FCRM. No significant change (P > 0.05) was observed for egg weight and shell thickness. Fat deposition and cholesterol content increased (P > 0.05) with increasing level of FCRM. The cost of feed per kilogram decreased gradually with increased inclusion level of CRM. The prediction equation showed the relative worth of DCRM compared to GNC was 92.3% whereas the actual market price of GNC triples that of DCRM. It was recommended that GNC could be completely replaced by DCRM in layer's diets in regions where this by product is abundant. However, FCRM should be cautiously used in diets of laying chickens.

An Evaluation of Empirical Prediction Equation for Deformation Modulus of Rock Masses by Field Measurements (암반변형계수의 현장시험을 통한 경험적 추정식의 적정성 평가)

  • Chun Byung-Sik;Lee Yong-Jae;Ahn Kyung-Chul;Shin Jae-Keun;Jung Sang-Hoon
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
    • /
    • v.16 no.3 s.62
    • /
    • pp.251-258
    • /
    • 2006
  • In this paper, the applicability to the Korean rock condition of using the deformation moduli based on Rock Mass Rating (RMR) and Pressuremeter Test (PMT) is evaluated. The correlations among deformation moduli and various rock properties were also analyzed. It appears that the existing correlations using RMR overestimate the deformation moduli and wide variation was found between predicted moduli using these correlations and measured values. As for the correlations among the deformation moduli and various rock properties, Rock Quality Designation (RQD) and unconfined compressive strength (UCS) were found to correlate to deformation moduli reasonably well, but joint spacing and joint conditions appear to correlate poorly to RQD and UCS. Additionally, groundwater can not be correlated with the modulus values. While the depth has very little contribution to deformation modulus, it should be factored in the simple regression analyses with various rock mass properties, especially with the correlations made with UCS, RQD etc. With the deficiencies of these correlations, more in depth analysis techniques such as multivariate correlations may be to reliably estimate deformation modulus of rock mass.

Determination of the Optimized Structure of Self-Organizing Map for the Rainfall-Runoff Analysis in Naju (나주지점의 강우-유출 해석을 위한 최적의 SOM 구조 결정)

  • Kim, Yong-Gu;Jin, Young-Hoon;Park, Sung-Chun;Jeong, Choen-Lee
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.41 no.10
    • /
    • pp.995-1007
    • /
    • 2008
  • Studies on modeling the rainfall-runoff relationship which shows nonlinear trend strongly use artificial neural networks theory not only for the prediction but also for the characteristics analysis of the data used by pattern classification. For the pattern classification, the results from Self-Organizing Map (SOM) mention that the map size and array for the SOM training have significantly influenced on the SOM performance. Since there is no deterministic method or theoretical equation to determine the number of rows and columns for the map size, hexagonal array is generally used for the map array. Therefore, this study present a determination of the optimized map structure for the rainfall-runoff analysis in Naju station considering the map size and array simultaneously which can represent the classified characterization of rainfall-runoff relationship. The result showed that the map size of 20$\times$16 hexagonal array with 8-clustered patterns was selected as an appropriate map structure for rainfall-runoff analysis in Naju station.

Dose-Rate Effects Generated from Repair and Regeneration (재생과 증식에 기인하는 선량률 효과)

  • Yi Pon Nyong;Cho Kwan Ho;Marks Richard D.;Kim Jae Ho
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
    • /
    • v.7 no.2
    • /
    • pp.171-183
    • /
    • 1989
  • A general effect for cell proliferation has been incorporated into Roesch's survival equation (Accumulation Model). From this an isoeffect formula for the low dose-rate regimen is obtained. The prediction for total doses equivalent to 60Gy delivered at the constant dose-rate over 7 days agrees well with the dose-time data of Paterson and of Green, when the parameter ratio A/B (${\approx}{\alpha{\mu}}/2{\beta}\;where\;{\mu}$ is the repair rate) is chosen to be 0.7Gy/h. When a constant proliferation rate and known facts of division delay are assumed, an isoeffect relation between low dose-rate treatment and acute dose-rate treatment can be derived. This formula in the regimens where proliferation is negligible predicts exactly the data of Ellis that 8 fractions of 5 Gy/day for 7 days are equivalent to continuously applied 60Gy over 7days, provided the A/B ratio is 0.7 Gy/h and the $\alpha/\beta$ ratio is 4Gy. Overall agreement between the clinical data and the predictions made by the formula at the above parameter values suggests that the biologcal end points used as the tolerance level in the studies by Paterson, Green, and Ellis all agree and they are not entirely the early effects as generally assumed. The absence of dose-rate effects observed in the mouse KHT sarcoma can better be explained in terms of a large value for the A/B ratio. Similarly, the same total dose used independently of the dose-rate to treat head and neck tumors by Pierquin can be justified.

  • PDF