• Title/Summary/Keyword: predicting demand

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A Study on Predicting the Logistics Demand of Inland Ports on the Yangtze River (장강 내수로 항만의 물류 수요 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Zhen Wu;Hyun-Chung Kim
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.48 no.3
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    • pp.217-242
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    • 2023
  • This study aims to analyze the factors influencing the logistics demand of inland ports along the Yangtze River and predict future port logistics demand based on these factors. The logistics demand prediction using system dynamics techniques was conducted for a total of six ports, including Chongqing and Yibin ports in the upper reaches, Jingzhou and Wuhan ports in the middle reaches, and Nanjing and Suzhou ports in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The logistics demand for all ports showed an increasing trend in the mid-term prediction until 2026. The logistics demand of Chongqing port was mainly influenced by the scale of the hinterland economy, while Yibin port appeared to heavily rely on the level of port automation. In the case of the upper and middle reach ports, logistics demand increased as the energy consumption of the hinterland increased and the air pollution situation worsened. The logistics demand of the middle reach ports was greatly influenced by the hinterland infrastructure, while the lower reach ports were sensitive to changes in the urban construction area. According to the sensitivity analysis, the logistics demand of ports relying on large cities was relatively stable against the increase and decrease of influential factors, while ports with smaller hinterland city scales reacted sensitively to changes in influential factors. Therefore, a strategy should be established to strengthen policy support for Chongqing port as the core port of the upper Yangtze River and have surrounding ports play a supporting role for Chongqing port. The upper reach ports need to play a supporting role for Chongqing port and consider measures to enhance connections with middle and lower reach ports and promote the port industry. The development strategy for inland ports along the Yangtze River suggests the establishment of direct routes and expansion of the transportation network for South Korean ports and stakeholders. It can suggest expanding the hinterland network and building an efficient transportation system linked with the logistics hub. Through cooperation, logistics efficiency can be enhanced in both regions, which will contribute to strengthening the international position and competitiveness of each port.

The Modern Characteristics and Meanings of F. L. Wright's Winslow House (프랭크 로이드 라이트의 윈슬로 주택의 근대적 특성과 의미)

  • Park, Hyung-Jin;Woo, Chang-Ok
    • Korean Institute of Interior Design Journal
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.109-116
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    • 2018
  • Prairie style houses in first stages of Frank Lloyd Wright's architecture activity pay a leading role in the process of house modernization as reflecting social and economic circumstances of the time based on traditional house style of the States. Wright's first work after retiring from L. Sullivan's office, Winslow house in 1983 is pioneering work predicting prairie house. This is because this house has only one modern architecture language of Wright and follow no style prevailing of the time. So, a researcher analyse Winslow house within the framework of functional thinking and new formative value creation in the modernization process of western house. Through this, The goal of this study is to find out modern characteristics and the meaning of Winslow house in modernization process prior to the 1900s. Firstly, the followings are modern characteristics of Winslow house. First, Winslow house has original planning breaking from custom based on modern functional and reasonable thoughts, and has practical space reflecting resident's inner demand. Second, Winslow house has modern new plastic value through original exterior breaking from custom and integrated shape of inner-outer space and structure. Secondly, the followings are the meaning of Winslow house in modernization process prior to the 1900s. First, Wright intend to suggest directions of residence modernization through Winslow house before designing Prairie style houses in earnest. Second, mixing of modern vocabulary and eclecticism show a sign of residence modernization process on the time. Third, inner-outer flowing space, opening space concept of Winslow house has innovative meanings predicting spacial characteristics of modern architecture.

Life and Performance Degradation Characteristics for Small-Sized Plug-In Type Pneumatic Manifold Valves (플러그인형 소형 공기압 매니폴드 밸브의 수명 및 성능열화특성에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Bo-Sik;Lee, Choong-Sung;Kim, Hyoung-Eui
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.35 no.11
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    • pp.1445-1451
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    • 2011
  • Pneumatic valves are widely used parts that have the ability to control the air supplied to automation systems. However, if failure occurs in a pneumatic valve, it may affect the entire system and could lead to huge losses, depending on the characteristics of the system at the time of failure. Because of this significant risk and the level of consumer demand for reliability, there has been much study on ensuring the reliability of products by predicting valve lifetime distributions and degradation characteristics. In this paper, in order to determine the main factors useful for predicting the lifetime of a pneumatic valve, the scale parameter and $B_{10}$ life time value of the widely used plug-in-type pneumatic manifold valves were measured using complete observational data on the valve lifetimes. And also the property of life distribution has been distribution-suitabilityreviewed by correlation coefficients, the degradation characteristics of valve has been presented by the result of analysis through dynamic response time test and leakage test.

Video Highlight Prediction Using Multiple Time-Interval Information of Chat and Audio (채팅과 오디오의 다중 시구간 정보를 이용한 영상의 하이라이트 예측)

  • Kim, Eunyul;Lee, Gyemin
    • Journal of Broadcast Engineering
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.553-563
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    • 2019
  • As the number of videos uploaded on live streaming platforms rapidly increases, the demand for providing highlight videos is increasing to promote viewer experiences. In this paper, we present novel methods for predicting highlights using chat logs and audio data in videos. The proposed models employ bi-directional LSTMs to understand the contextual flow of a video. We also propose to use the features over various time-intervals to understand the mid-to-long term flows. The proposed Our methods are demonstrated on e-Sports and baseball videos collected from personal broadcasting platforms such as Twitch and Kakao TV. The results show that the information from multiple time-intervals is useful in predicting video highlights.

MLCNN-COV: A multilabel convolutional neural network-based framework to identify negative COVID medicine responses from the chemical three-dimensional conformer

  • Pranab Das;Dilwar Hussain Mazumder
    • ETRI Journal
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.290-306
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    • 2024
  • To treat the novel COronaVIrus Disease (COVID), comparatively fewer medicines have been approved. Due to the global pandemic status of COVID, several medicines are being developed to treat patients. The modern COVID medicines development process has various challenges, including predicting and detecting hazardous COVID medicine responses. Moreover, correctly predicting harmful COVID medicine reactions is essential for health safety. Significant developments in computational models in medicine development can make it possible to identify adverse COVID medicine reactions. Since the beginning of the COVID pandemic, there has been significant demand for developing COVID medicines. Therefore, this paper presents the transferlearning methodology and a multilabel convolutional neural network for COVID (MLCNN-COV) medicines development model to identify negative responses of COVID medicines. For analysis, a framework is proposed with five multilabel transfer-learning models, namely, MobileNetv2, ResNet50, VGG19, DenseNet201, and Inceptionv3, and an MLCNN-COV model is designed with an image augmentation (IA) technique and validated through experiments on the image of three-dimensional chemical conformer of 17 number of COVID medicines. The RGB color channel is utilized to represent the feature of the image, and image features are extracted by employing the Convolution2D and MaxPooling2D layer. The findings of the current MLCNN-COV are promising, and it can identify individual adverse reactions of medicines, with the accuracy ranging from 88.24% to 100%, which outperformed the transfer-learning model's performance. It shows that three-dimensional conformers adequately identify negative COVID medicine responses.

An Alternative Evaluation Model for Benefit Measurement of Public Transportation by the Open of Urban Railway: Seoul Metro Line 9 (도시 철도개통에 따른 대중교통이용 편익측정을 위한 대안적 평가모델 : 지하철 9호선을 사례로)

  • Joo, Yong-Jin
    • Spatial Information Research
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.11-20
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    • 2011
  • In accordance with low carbon and green growth paradigm, a subway is one of major public transit systems for resolving traffic congestion and decreasing traffic accidents. In addition, as subway networks expand, passengers' travel pattern in the subway network change and consequently affect the urban structure. Generally, new subway route has been planned and developed, mainly considering a travel demand forecast. However, it is desired to conduct an empirical analysis on the forecast model regarding change of travel accessibility and passenger demand pattern according to new subway line. Therefore, in this paper, an alternative method, developed based upon a spatial syntax model, is proposed for evaluating new subway route in terms of passenger's mobility and network accessibility. In a case study, we constructed subway network data, mainly targeting the no 9 subway line opened in 2009. With an axial-map analysis, we calculated spatial characteristics to describe topological movement interface. We then analyzed actual modal shift and change on demand of passengers through the number of subway passenger between subway stations and the number of passenger according to comparative bus line from Smart Card to validate suggested methods. Results show that the proposed method provides quantitative means of visualizing passenger flow in subway route planning and of analyzing the time-space characteristics of network. Also, it is expected that the proposed method can be utilized for predicting a passengers' pattern and its impact on public transportation.

A Study on an ETCS Demand Forecasting Model of Toll Roads in Changwon City (유료도로 ETCS 이용수요 예측모형에 관한 연구 (창원시를 중심으로))

  • Kim, Kyung-Whan;Ha, Man-Bok;Jeon, Yeon-Hoo;Lee, Ik-Su
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.9 no.1 s.31
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    • pp.17-27
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    • 2007
  • Since early 1990s, several developed countries have applied the Electronic Toll Collection System (ETCS) to toll roads in order to solve traffic congestion and delay problems at toll plazas. For the successful operation of the ETCS, it is important to correctly forecast the ETCS using rate. In this study, it was conceived to develop a sophisticated demand forecasting model of the ETCS for toll roads in Changwon City The Binary Logit and neural network models were tested for the model considering 11 explaining variables. The best results in prediction accuracy and goodness-of-fit were obtained on the neural network model. However, because of the difficulty in predicting the 11 variables and its fitness in wide range, the Binary Logit model which considers three policy variables only is recommended as the model to forecast the ETCS using rate.

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A Study on the Resilient Supply of Agricultural Water in Jeju Island by Forecasting Future Demand (미래 수요예측을 통한 제주도 농업용수 회복탄력적 공급 방안에 관한 연구)

  • Go, Jea-han;Jeung, Minhyuk;Beom, Jina;Sung, Mu-hong;Jung, Hyoung-mo;Yoo, Seung-hwan;Yoon, Kwang-sik
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.62 no.3
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    • pp.71-83
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    • 2020
  • Resilience is the capacity to maintain essential services under a range of circumstances from normal to extreme. It is achieved through the ability of assets, networks, systems and management to anticipate, absorb and recover from disturbance. It requires adaptive capacity in respect of current and future risks and uncertainties as well as experience to date. The agricultural infrastructures with high resilience can not only reduce the size of the disaster relatively, but also minimize the loss by reducing the time required for recovery. This study aims to evaluate the most suitable drought countermeasures with the analysis of various resilience indices by predicting future agricultural water shortage under land use and climate change scenarios for agricultural areas in Jeju Island. The results showed that the permanent countermeasure is suitable than the temporary countermeasures as drought size and the cost required for recovery increase. Wide-area water supply system, which is a kind of water grid system, is identified as the most advantageous among countermeasures. It is recommended to evaluate the capability of agricultural infrastructure against drought with the various Resilience Indices for reliable assessment of long-term effect.

A Study on Simulation-based Method for Implementation of Ground Delay Program for Jeju International Airport (시뮬레이션 기반의 지상지연 프로그램 적용방안에 관한 연구 - 제주국제공항을 사례로 -)

  • Lee, Young-Jong;Cho, Ji-Eun;Baik, Ho-Jong
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.41-48
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    • 2015
  • Being a cost-efficient solution for alleviating the traffic congestion in airspace, Air Traffic Flow Management (ATFM) has drawn more attentions from not only air traffic controllers but also researchers in the field of Air Traffic Management (ATM). Among other ATFM initiatives, it is believed that Ground Delay Program (GDP) could be effectively applied to reduce the congestion particularly in the relatively small airspace with dense traffic demand. This paper introduces a novel way that suggests flights to be delayed on the departing airports together with amount of the delays (in time) for those flights to be delayed. Adopting a fast-time simulation for predicting airspace delay of each flight for a given flight plan, the method is designed to iteratively and incrementally adjust the departure times in the plan towards reducing total airspace delays. Applying the method to Jeju airport with a hypothetically high demand, the paper demonstrates the airspace delay could be significantly reduced by applying GDP at Gimpo airport where more than 60% of Juju-bound flights departure. Although the simulation model needs to be calibrated and validated for the real-world application, the results clearly shows that the approach can possibly implemented as a tool for preparing the daily plan at the pre-tactical stage defined in the ICAO ATFM manual.

Hydrogen Absorption/Desorption and Heat Transfer Modeling in a Concentric Horizontal ZrCo Bed (수평식 이중원통형 ZrCo 용기 내 수소 흡탈장 및 열전달 모델링)

  • Park, Jongcheol;Lee, Jungmin;Koo, Daeseo;Yun, Sei-Hun;Paek, Seungwoo;Chung, Hongsuk
    • Transactions of the Korean hydrogen and new energy society
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.295-301
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    • 2013
  • Long-term global energy-demand growth is expected to increase driven by strong energy-demand growth from developing countries. Fusion power offers the prospect of an almost inexhaustible source of energy for future generations, even though it also presents so far insurmountable scientific and engineering challenges. One of the challenges is safe handling of hydrogen isotopes. Metal hydrides such as depleted uranium hydride or ZrCo hydride are used as a storage medium for hydrogen isotopes reversibly. The metal hydrides bind with hydrogen very strongly. In this paper, we carried out a modeling and simulation work for absorption/desorption of hydrogen by ZrCo in a horizontal annulus cylinder bed. A comprehensive mathematical description of a metal hydride hydrogen storage vessel was developed. This model was calibrated against experimental data obtained from our experimental system containing ZrCo metal hydride. The model was capable of predicting the performance of the bed for not only both the storage and delivery processes but also heat transfer operations. This model should thus be very useful for the design and development of the next generation of metal hydride hydrogen isotope storage systems.