• Title/Summary/Keyword: portfolio return

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Determination Conversion Weight of Convertible Bonds Using Mean/Value-at-Risk Optimization Models (평균/VaR 최적화 모형에 의한 전환사채 주식전환 비중 결정)

  • Park, Koohyun
    • Korean Management Science Review
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.55-70
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    • 2013
  • In this study we suggested two optimization models to determine conversion weight of convertible bonds. The problem of this study is same as that of Park and Shim [1]. But this study used Value-at-Risk (VaR) for risk measurement instead of CVaR, Conditional-Value-at-Risk. In comparison with conventional Markowitz portfolio models, which use the variance of return, our models used VaR. In 1996, Basel Committee on Banking Supervision recommended VaR for portfolio risk measurement. But there are difficulties in solving optimization models including VaR. Benati and Rizzi [5] proved NP-hardness of general portfolio optimization problems including VaR. We adopted their approach. But we developed efficient algorithms with time complexity O(nlogn) or less for our models. We applied examples of our models to the convertible bond issued by a semiconductor company Hynix.

Enhanced Indexation Strategy with ETF and Black-Litterman Model (ETF와 블랙리터만 모형을 이용한 인핸스드 인덱스 전략)

  • Park, Gigyoung;Lee, Youngho;Seo, Jiwon
    • Korean Management Science Review
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 2013
  • In this paper, we deal with an enhanced index fund strategy by implementing the exchange trade funds (ETFs) within the context of the Black-Litterman approach. The KOSPI200 index ETF is used to build risk-controlled portfolio that tracks the benchmark index, while the proposed Black-Litterman model mitigates estimation errors in incorporating both active investment views and equilibrium views. First, we construct a Black-Litterman model portfolio with the active market perspective based on the momentum strategy. Then, we update the portfolio with the KOSPI200 index ETF by using the equilibrium return ratio and weighted averages, while devising optimization modeling for improving the information ratio (IR) of the portfolio. Finally, we demonstrate the empirical viability of the proposed enhanced index strategies with KOSPI 200 data.

The Optimization of the Production Ratio by the Mean-variance Analysis of the Chemical Products Prices (화학 제품 가격의 변동으로 인한 위험을 최소화하며 수익을 극대화하기 위한 생산 비율 최적화에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Jeong-Ho;Park, Sun-Won
    • Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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    • v.12 no.12
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    • pp.1169-1172
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    • 2006
  • The prices of chemical products are fluctuated by several factors. The chemical companies can't predict and be ready to all of these changes, so they are exposed to the risk of a profit fluctuation. But they can reduce this risk by making a well-diversified product portfolio. This problem can be thought as the optimization of the product portfolio. We assume that the profits come from the 'spread' between a naphtha and a chemical product. We calculate a mean and a variation of each spread and develop an automatic module to calculate the optimal portion of each product. The theory is based on the Markowitz portfolio management. It maximizes the expected return while minimizing the volatility. At last we draw an investment selection curve to compare each alternative and to demonstrate the superiority. And we suggest that an investment selection curve can be a decision-making tool.

The Optimal Mean-Variance Portfolio Formulation by Mathematical Planning (Mean-Variance 수리 계획을 이용한 최적 포트폴리오 투자안 도출)

  • Kim, Tai-Young
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.63-71
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    • 2009
  • The traditional portfolio optimization problem is to find an investment plan for securities with reasonable trade-off between the rate of return and the risk. The seminal work in this field is the mean-variance model by Markowitz, which is a quadratic programming problem. Since it is now computationally practical to solve the model, a number of alternative models to overcome this complexity have been proposed. In this paper, among the alternatives, we focus on the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) model. More specifically, we developed an algorithm to obtain an optimal portfolio from the MAD model. We showed mathematically that the algorithm can solve the problem to optimality. We tested it using the real data from the Korean Stock Market. The results coincide with our expectation that the method can solve a variety of problems in a reasonable computational time.

Gaining Insight into IT Investment in the Agriculture Industry: Comparison of IT Portfolios by Type of Crops

  • Jiyeol Kim;Cheul Rhee;Junghoon Moon
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.233-244
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    • 2017
  • IT portfolio, meaning the ratio of investment with four different purposes of IT, is widely used for evaluating the adequacy of investment and its performance within firms. Despite of such a useful framework looking at investment on IT, IT portfolio in agriculture industry seems to be differentiated from other industries. In this study, we compared IT portfolios of farms: grain, field fruit and vegetable, greenhouse fruit, greenhouse vegetable, beef cattle and pig. We classified farms by their return on equity (ROE) in order to analyze the relationship between IT portfolio of each crop and performance. Then, we found patterns of IT portfolios of top-performance farms compared to all farms for each agricultural product. Lastly, peculiarities of each crop are interpreted and discussed to find out top-performance farms' IT investment patterns. From our study, it could be inferred that monotonous IT investments may not be as effective.

Portfolio Optimization of Diversified Investments with Minimum Risk Asset and Non-Positive Correlation Assets (최소위험 종목과 비양의 상관관계를 갖는 종목들 분산투자 포트폴리오 최적화)

  • Lee, Sang-Un
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.103-110
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    • 2022
  • This paper deals with portfolio optimization problem that you could lower the total risk of an investment portfolio by adding risky assets to the mix than the minimum risk of single asset. Popular Markowitz's mean-variance(MV) model construct the portfolio with the point in the efficient frontier using principle of domination where the variance is minimized for a given mean return. While this paper suggest the portfolio with minimum risk asset with non-positive(negative and uncorrelated) correlation assets to it. As a result of experiments, the proposed method shows lower risk(standard deviation) than MV.

Stock Price Return and Variance of Unlisted Start-ups (비상장 스타트업의 주가수익률과 분산)

  • KANG, Won;SHIN, Jung-Soon
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.29-43
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    • 2022
  • This study measures the realized rate of return of venture capital(VC) fund at the level of investment agreement(as opposed to fund level returns reported by most of the relevant studies). It also measures the stock price return of the VC's portfolio firms (unlisted start-ups) at firm level(as opposed to fund returns) and its variance for the first time using unique data of the VC funds held by the Korean Venture Capital Association. Results of the analysis confirm that VC fund returns exceed individual stock price returns. Additionally, it is confirmed that VC portfolio firms exhibit a positive relationship between risk and return measured by total risk. Finally, we find that stock price returns at firm level are lower than that implied by the associated levels of risk. Consequently, this may make individual investors hesitate to directly buy unlisted startups' stocks even when investment in individual startup companies guarantees high risk-high returns relationship.

Using genetic algorithms to develop volatility index-assisted hierarchical portfolio optimization (변동성 지수기반 유전자 알고리즘을 활용한 계층구조 포트폴리오 최적화에 관한 연구)

  • Byun, Hyun-Woo;Song, Chi-Woo;Han, Sung-Kwon;Lee, Tae-Kyu;Oh, Kyong-Joo
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.1049-1060
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    • 2009
  • The expansion of volatility in Korean Stock Market made it more difficult for the individual to invest directly and increased the weight of indirect investment through a fund. The purpose of this study is to construct the EIF(enhanced index fund) model achieves an excessive return among several types of fund. For this purpose, this paper propose portfolio optimization model to manage an index fund by using GA(genetic algorithm), and apply the trading amount and the closing price of standard index to earn an excessive return add to index fund return. The result of the empirical analysis of this study suggested that the proposed model is well represented the trend of KOSPI 200 and the new investment strategies using this can make higher returns than Buy-and-Hold strategy by an index fund, if an appropriate number of stocks included.

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Making Consumer to Buy Funds: Factor Portfolio in Global Stock Distribution Market (일반 소비자의 공모펀드 구매유인 제고 방안: 글로벌 주식유통시장에서 요인포트폴리오 활용)

  • LIU, Won-Suk
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.17 no.9
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    • pp.117-125
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    • 2019
  • Purpose - We investigate how to increase consumer incentives to buy public offering funds, resulting in activating the public offering fund market. In particular, this study aims to find ways to expand diversity and to improve efficiency of public offering fund. The public fund market of Korea has been stagnant in recent years. However, the public offering fund market plays a very significant role in terms of consumer welfare. Since only a few wealthy investors can participate in the private equity market, the stagnation in the public offering fund market usually reduces the opportunity of consumer's buying funds thus ultimately affecting their future wealth. Research design, data, and methodology - To attain our purpose, the 'factor-based portfolio strategy' has been considered. It is an alternative portfolio strategy, which composites the advantages of the passive management and active management. For our empirical anaylsis, we used global stock distribution market data over the period of 1991 and 2016. Then we constructed portfolios based on firm-size, firm-value, and momentum. Finally, a regression model was set, then hypotheses were tested, analyzing the performances. Results - First, among the 15 factor-based portfolios of global, Europe, Asia-Pacific(ex Japan), US and Japan, in eight portfolios, positive excess returns are observed at 5% significance level. Further, there is another portfolio with positive excess return at 10% significance level. Second, most of the portfolios with significant excess performance show positive relationship with the market portfolio. However, the firm-value based portfolio in Asia-Pacific region shows no relationship, and the firm-value based portfolio in US shows negative relationship. Third, we confirmed that the two firm-value factor portfolios in Asia-Pacific region and US, not having positive relationship with market portfolio, provide significant excess returns. Conclusions - In this paper, we provide empirical evidences supporting that the factor-based portfolios expand the diversity of funds and improve the efficiency of investment performance. However, there is no guarantee that the efficiency will continue in the future. In addition, various constraints and costs must be considered. Nevertheless, our novel findings in the advanced financial market such as US and Asia-Pacific are very interesting and offers important implications.

Robo-Advisor Algorithm with Intelligent View Model (지능형 전망모형을 결합한 로보어드바이저 알고리즘)

  • Kim, Sunwoong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.39-55
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    • 2019
  • Recently banks and large financial institutions have introduced lots of Robo-Advisor products. Robo-Advisor is a Robot to produce the optimal asset allocation portfolio for investors by using the financial engineering algorithms without any human intervention. Since the first introduction in Wall Street in 2008, the market size has grown to 60 billion dollars and is expected to expand to 2,000 billion dollars by 2020. Since Robo-Advisor algorithms suggest asset allocation output to investors, mathematical or statistical asset allocation strategies are applied. Mean variance optimization model developed by Markowitz is the typical asset allocation model. The model is a simple but quite intuitive portfolio strategy. For example, assets are allocated in order to minimize the risk on the portfolio while maximizing the expected return on the portfolio using optimization techniques. Despite its theoretical background, both academics and practitioners find that the standard mean variance optimization portfolio is very sensitive to the expected returns calculated by past price data. Corner solutions are often found to be allocated only to a few assets. The Black-Litterman Optimization model overcomes these problems by choosing a neutral Capital Asset Pricing Model equilibrium point. Implied equilibrium returns of each asset are derived from equilibrium market portfolio through reverse optimization. The Black-Litterman model uses a Bayesian approach to combine the subjective views on the price forecast of one or more assets with implied equilibrium returns, resulting a new estimates of risk and expected returns. These new estimates can produce optimal portfolio by the well-known Markowitz mean-variance optimization algorithm. If the investor does not have any views on his asset classes, the Black-Litterman optimization model produce the same portfolio as the market portfolio. What if the subjective views are incorrect? A survey on reports of stocks performance recommended by securities analysts show very poor results. Therefore the incorrect views combined with implied equilibrium returns may produce very poor portfolio output to the Black-Litterman model users. This paper suggests an objective investor views model based on Support Vector Machines(SVM), which have showed good performance results in stock price forecasting. SVM is a discriminative classifier defined by a separating hyper plane. The linear, radial basis and polynomial kernel functions are used to learn the hyper planes. Input variables for the SVM are returns, standard deviations, Stochastics %K and price parity degree for each asset class. SVM output returns expected stock price movements and their probabilities, which are used as input variables in the intelligent views model. The stock price movements are categorized by three phases; down, neutral and up. The expected stock returns make P matrix and their probability results are used in Q matrix. Implied equilibrium returns vector is combined with the intelligent views matrix, resulting the Black-Litterman optimal portfolio. For comparisons, Markowitz mean-variance optimization model and risk parity model are used. The value weighted market portfolio and equal weighted market portfolio are used as benchmark indexes. We collect the 8 KOSPI 200 sector indexes from January 2008 to December 2018 including 132 monthly index values. Training period is from 2008 to 2015 and testing period is from 2016 to 2018. Our suggested intelligent view model combined with implied equilibrium returns produced the optimal Black-Litterman portfolio. The out of sample period portfolio showed better performance compared with the well-known Markowitz mean-variance optimization portfolio, risk parity portfolio and market portfolio. The total return from 3 year-period Black-Litterman portfolio records 6.4%, which is the highest value. The maximum draw down is -20.8%, which is also the lowest value. Sharpe Ratio shows the highest value, 0.17. It measures the return to risk ratio. Overall, our suggested view model shows the possibility of replacing subjective analysts's views with objective view model for practitioners to apply the Robo-Advisor asset allocation algorithms in the real trading fields.