• 한국인구학
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.87-117
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• 1985

In Principle, the distriction should be understood between projections and forecasts. When the author or user of a projection is willing to describe it as indicating the most likely population at a give date, then he has made a forecast Population change since 1 960 has been reviewed briefly in order to forecast the population of Korea in the year 2,000 which is a leading factor in long term national development plan for which Korea Institute for Population and Health (KIPH) has been participated since 1983. The author of this paper introduced the population forecast prepared for the long term national development plan and an attempt of comparisons with other forecasts such as D.P. Smith's, T. Frejka's, Economic Planning Board's (EPB), UN's and S.B. Lee's was made. Those six forecasts of Korean future population in year 2,000 varried from 48.5 million to 50.0 million due to the base population and assumption of fertility and mortality however the range of total population size is not large enough. Taking four forecasts such as KIPH, EPB, UN, and Lee based on 1980 population census results and latest data of fertility and mortality, KIPH and UN forecast are close in total population size even though there was a slight difference in fertility and mortality assumptions. The smallest size of total population was shown by S.B. Lee (see Table 13) although the difference between KIPH and Lee was approximately one million which is two percent of total population in year 2,000. As a summary of conclusion the author pointed out that one can take anyone of forecasts prepared by different body because size and proportion wise of the Korean population until early I 990s can not be different much and new population projections must be provided by using 1985 population census data and other latest fertility and mortality information coflected by Korea Institute for Population and Health and Economic Planning Board in forth comming year.

• 한국조사연구학회지:조사연구
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• 제11권2호
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• pp.71-95
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• 2010

한 국가의 공식인구에는 기준인구(base population), 조사간인구(intercensal population estimates), 조사후인구(postcensal population estimates), 그리고 추계인구(population projections) 등이 있다. 조사간인구, 조사후인구, 그리고 추계인구는 기준인구를 기반으로 하며, 대부분의 나라에서 센서스를 이용하여 기준인구를 생성하고 있다. 본 논문에서는 우리나라의 기준인구 작성 시 센서스 자료를 얼마나, 어떻게 사용하는지 살펴보고, 다른 여러 나라의 공식인구 작성방법에 대한 장 단점을 비교, 분석하고자 한다. 이를 통해 우리나라 공식인구의 문제점을 적시하고 그 해결책을 제시한다.

• 한국인구학
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.1-16
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• 1994

Since 1962, the population growth control has been one of the most important aims in the 5-Year So-cioeconomic Development Plans of Korea. The annual population growth rate has dropped to tess than 1 percent in 1990 from about 3 percents in 1960s, and projected to reach to $\ulcorner$0$\urcorner$ percent in 2021. From 2021, Korean population will decrease and the age structure will be distorted because birth rate will drop suddenly and continuously. Thus, we can consider $\ulcorner$0$\urcorner$ growth population for minimizing the prob- lems on the decreasing population. To discuss the problems caused from the changes of population size and age- sex composition, we projected three kinds of population including two kinds of $\ulcorner$0$\urcorner$ growth population under different as- sumptions. The first is the population which extended the projection of National Statistical Office up to 2090. Because the TFR is assumed and fixed as low as 1.63 after 1990, the population growth rate will be under $\ulcorner$0$\urcorner$ in 2021 and drop by about 1 percent every year from around 2050. This population trend results to old age population : 38.1 of old- age dependency ratio and 46.5 years of median age. The second is the population which the size in 2021 projected by the NOS continues after 2021. To change over from the decreasing population after 2021 to the $\ulcorner$0$\urcorner$ growth one, the TFR should be in-creased up to over 3.0 in 2040-2050, which fertility level would be too high to be accepted. The third is the population which approaches to the $\ulcorner$0$\urcorner$ growth population under the assumptions that the TFR increases from 1.63 to 2.1 in the period of 2010-2030 and then the same level continues. Although the maximum population size reaches 51, 503 thousand persons, the population will approach to the stationary population with about 42.4 million persons around 2090. In this projected population there is no more serious problems on population composition, on the rapid decrease of population, and on the increase TFR level. When the $\ulcorner$0$\urcorner$ growth population continues the problems of over population caused by the populationincrease wou]d be minimized, and the problems of unusual age composition resulted from the popula-tion decrease would not be found any more. Furthermore, when the changes of population size and composition is continuing slowly, the factors of population would effect moderately to socioeconomic development and help social changes. Therefore, with the attention of the present population changes, we should adapt new and detailde population policy which is able to get the $\ulcorner$0$\urcorner$ growth population.

• 한국인구학
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.18-44
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• 1991

• 한국인구학
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.69-88
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• 1986

The purpose of the present study is to find out and analyze the degree of population concentration of 10 selected cities. The data used for the present study were derived from the Government publications including the population and Housing Census Reports from 1966 through 1980 and the Korea Urbanic Yearbooks from 1969 through 1981. The major findings of the study were summarized as follows: The data revealed that changes of population size were more rapidly proceeded in Seoul than any other city and regarding to population composition, these selected cities had more male population than female population. The proportion of the productive age group of these selected cities were found to be higher than that of whole country each year, especially the proportion 20∼24 aged group was higher in 1980 than any other year. The number of net migrants in these cities during last 20 years, 1960∼80 was 910, 656 as Seoul obtained the largest net migrants and among the selected cities, Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Daejeon and Jeonju had a big change in volume of net migration population, especially in 30∼39 aged group in 1980. According to Gini Concentration Ratio and Index of Concentration, the population concentration was the highest in 1980 and the population concentration was intensively accelerated during 1966∼ 1970.

• 한국인구학
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• 제3권1호
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• pp.62-77
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• 1979

The purpose of this study is to explain the increasing trend of the aged population and its demographic characteristics. This study is based on the data for the aged population above 65 years old published by the Bureau of Statistics, Economic Planning Board. The increasing trend of the aged population has been analyzed and projected from 1955 to the year 2000. Some demographic charicteristics of the aged population including marital status, educational status and status of economic activities have also been analyzed in order to identify the problems associated with aging of population in Korea. The study offers the following conclusion. 1. The aged population index, the proportion of aged population to total population was 3.6 in 1975 and projected to be 6.6 in 2000. There has been steady increase of the aged population is reflected in changes of population structure. The proportional change of the aged population index was 100.0 in 1955, 109.0 in 1975 and 200.0 in 2000 respectively. 2. As for marital status of the aged population 77.6 per cent of male were married while 24.3 per cent of female were married in 1975. 22 per cent of male were widowed while it spouses died declined remarkable the mortality rate declined. 3. As the educational status of the aged, 77 per cent never attended school and 18 per cent attended from a primary school. This is very low and the number of educated men is higher than that of educated women. The rank ordering of schooling is city, Eub and Myeon in that aged. 4. The dependency ratio of the aged population was 5.9 in 1955, 6.1 in 1975 and will be 9.8 in 2000. It is gradually increasing as indicated above 20 per cent of aged population was economically active of these, they are employed in the following occupations as listed in order of the magnitude of the aged population employed. The employment status of the aged workers shows that a greater number of persons are self-employed than workers for another employer. In particular, temporary employees comprise 56.0 per cent of those employed.

• 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
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• 제15권3호
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• pp.192-196
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• 2015

It is important to obtain the information of population center for establishing the balanced development policy of a nation. In this note, the population center of Korea is obtained using 2010 Census data and compared with the past population centers. The weighted average method is used for calculating the population center. The results of this note will be able to contribute in the regional population distribution policies.

• 한국인구학
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• 제5권1호
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• pp.4-16
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• 1982

The Korean Population Control Program has been implementing under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Health and Social Affairs through an existing network of health centers. This arrangement was successful in bringing population growth down to targeted level by the end of the Fourth Five Year Economic Planning, 1981. It is expected, however, that future goal will be harder to reach due to difficulty of reducing traditional family size norms further and to the projected increasing the number of eligible couples as the past Korean war baby boom generation enters the reproductive activity in the next few years. The recognition of the need for modification of population policy is increasing. The 1980 census shows that the total number of population reached approximately 38.5 million with 1.57 per cent of the growth rate. It was projected that the size of Korean Population will reach around 42 million and 51 million in 1986 and 2000 respectively. Furthermore, there is some argument as to whether decline in the birth rate in Korea is too slow to meet government target. Hence, a new development of population policy and greatly increased amount of effort will be needed in order to achieve Zero Population Growth Rate before the year 2050. The development of future national population policy and its related area are recommended as follow: 1. It is highly recommended that the population planning law governing both vital events of birth and death and population migration should be legislated. 2. The National Population Policy Council, Chaired by Deputy Prime Minister should be activated to implement and coordinate population program within ministries. 3. Responsible organization of population and family planning program should be established as a Bureau unit at central government level. 4. For the improvement of national vital registration, an existing system should be studied and developed.

• 한국인구학
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• 제20권2호
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• pp.199-204
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• 1997

• 한국인구학
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.87-99
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• 1993