• Title/Summary/Keyword: population growth model

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한국항만도시의 입지, 인구성장과 화물집중도연구 (A Study on the Location, Population Growth, and Cargo Concentration of Korean Port-Cities)

  • 박노경
    • 한국항만경제학회지
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    • 제17권2호
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    • pp.61-87
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    • 2001
  • The purpose of this paper is to analyze the location, population growth. and cargo concentration of Korean port-cities. In the location theory, Sommer (1976) and McGee (1967) models are newly introduced, as are the Rimmer (1967), Bird (1965), Hoyle (1981) models. which were already introduced in previous studies from Korea. Analysis of population growth in the Korean port-cities is conducted using data from 1966 to 1998. Rimmer and Hoyle's concentration models are used to measure cargo concentration from 1966 to 2000. The main results of this paper are as follows: First, Korean ports are concentrated on the East Sea, the Southern Sea, and the West Sea. Their locations are closely related with the hinterland. the inland city, and growth of port-cities. In considering the foreign countrys' cases, Korean port-cities are similar to the models of Bird and Hoyle. Second, the populations of Ulsan and Pohang grew at the fastest rate in 1966-1998, while the port cities in the Honam and Jeiu region grew at much lower ratios. Most port cities are located near large industrial complexes. Third the growth rates of Gwangyang, Daesan, Pohang, Pyungtaeg, and Samchunpo increased, while those of Busan. Mukho, Masan, Mogpo, Yeosu, and Sokcho declined. Of particular note, the growth rate of Busan remained negative after the late 1980s. Fourth. empirical results using the Rimmer (1967) model indicate that Gwangyang, Daesan, Pyungtag, and Pohang have shown the concentration. But the deconcentration was shown from the Busan, Mukho, Janghang, Gunsan, Mogpo, Yeosu, Masan, Sokcho. and Jeju. Fifth, the concentration of ports located in West coast region has shown the mixed results between concentration and deconcentration except the concentration of early 1970s and 1990s. The concentration of ports located in East coast region has shown the concentration before the middle of 1980s. And deconcentration after the middle of 1980s have appeared. The Southern coast region has shown the continuous deconcentration except the partial concentration of early 1986. and 1991. Planners of Korean ports should find out the factors of concentration and deconcentration of each ports and should determine factors such as investment priority level. size and scope in order to ensure the balanced development of regional ports and port-cities.

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인구밀도의 변화로 본 도시내부의 성장과 공간패턴 - 서울의 예 (Intra-Urban Growth and Spatial Patterns in variation of Poupulation Density-The case of Seoul-)

  • 이진환
    • 대한지리학회지
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    • 제38권
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    • pp.61-74
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    • 1988
  • Changing patterns of population densities in urban centers are different between Western countries and non-Western countries. Although Seoul is located in a non-Western country, the result of this study shows that its pattern of population density falls into the category of Western cities. Through the examination of three population density gradient models, it is clear that no model can precisely explain the population distribution of Seoul over time. Some of the models partly indicate the actual population distrisbution. The Clark model is appropriate to denote population distribution in the center of Seoul at an early stage in development. The Sherratt model cannot adequately explain the population distribution of Seoul.

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한국의 인구변천과 환경변화 (Demographic Transition and Environmental Change in Korea)

  • 김익기
    • 한국인구학
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    • 제18권2호
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    • pp.23-50
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    • 1995
  • 이 글은 한국의 인구변천이 환경변화에 어떻게 영향을 미치고 있는가를 규명하고 있다. 이 관계는 기본적으로 경로모형(path model)의 틀로서 설명되고 있다. 인구증가는 그 자체만으로도 직접적으로 환경을 오염시키는 원인이 되고 있다. 인구증가는 또한 각각 도시화 및 산업화를 유발시킴으로서 환경오염의 간접적인 원인이 되고 있다. 한편, 도시화와 산업화는 서로 상승작용을 통해서 환경오염에 영향을 미치고 있다. 이 글에서는 이와 같은 이론적 틀에 입각하여 한국의 인구성장, 도시화 및 공업화의 추세를 살펴보고 이들 요인들이 환경변화에 어떻게 영향을 미치고 있는가를 분석하고 있다. 또한 환경오염의 변화양태를 대기오염과 수질오염 그리고 폐기물의 변화추세로써 살펴보고 있다. 마지막으로 환경변화의 결과가 한국적인 상황에서 어떻게 나타나고 있는가가 논의되고 있다.

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남북한 인구의 장기전망과 인구학적 비교 분석

  • 이시백
    • 한국인구학
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    • 제8권2호
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    • pp.11-29
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    • 1985
  • 이 글은 한국의 인구변천이 환경변화에 어떻게 영향을 미치고 있는가를 규명하고 있다. 이 관계는 기본적으로 경로모형(path model)의 틀로서 설명되고 있다. 인구증가는 그 자체만으로도 직접적으로 환경을 오염시키는 원인이 되고 있다. 인구증가는 또한 각각 도시화 및 산업화를 유발시킴으로서 환경오염의 간접적인 원인이 되고 있다. 한편, 도시화와 산업화는 서로 상승작용을 통해서 환경오염에 영향을 미치고 있다. 이 글에서는 이와 같은 이론적 틀에 입각하여 한국의 인구성장, 도시화 및 공업화의 추세를 살펴보고 이들 요인들이 환경변화에 어떻게 영향을 미치고 있는가를 분석하고 있다. 또한 환경오염의 변화양태를 대기오염과 수질오염 그리고 폐기물의 변화추세로써 살펴보고 있다. 마지막으로 환경변화의 결과가 한국적인 상황에서 어떻게 나타나고 있는가가 논의되고 있다.

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人口過程의 分析과 人口配置計劃의 모델模索 (A Study on the Analysis of Population Dynamics and the Model of population Relocation)

  • 박찬계;함종욱
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • 제10권
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    • pp.145-157
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    • 1981
  • Regional relocation of population in Korea is required strongly from natural and environmental sides for substantial growth of economy and the rigorous revival national economy against especially internationalization. This paper aimed for analysed the population distribution by regional and special characteristics of the inter-migration and showed the direction of population policy through the model building. Relocation methods of population by region has been examined through the process from the approach method by Haurin's production function to the approach by the utility function. The examination of the development model is done efficiently, how utility these approach models are depends on that scientific and composite plan for population problems against forced policy should be taken precedence.

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Dynamic Customer Population Management Model at Aggregate Level

  • Kim, Geon-Ha
    • Management Science and Financial Engineering
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    • 제16권3호
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    • pp.49-70
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    • 2010
  • Customer population management models can be classified into three categories: the first category includes the models that analyze the customer population at cohort level; the second one deals with the customer population at aggregate level; the third one has interest in the interactions among the customer populations in the competitive market. Our study proposes a model that can analyze the dynamics of customer population in consumer-durables market at aggregate level. The dynamics of customer population includes the retention curves from the purchase or at a specific duration time, the duration time expectancy at a specific duration time, and customer population growth or decline including net replacement rate, intrinsic rate of increase, and the generation time of customer population. For this study, we adopt mathematical ecology models, redefine them, and restructure interdisciplinary models to analyze the dynamics of customer population at aggregate level. We use the data of previous research on dynamic customer population management at cohort level to compare its results with those of ours and to demonstrate the useful analytical effects which the precious research cannot provide for marketers.

조선후기의 출산력, 사망력 및 인구증가: 네 족보에 나타난 1700$\sim$1899년간 생몰 기록을 이용한 연구 (Fertility, Mortality, and Population Growth in 18th and 19th Century Korea: Evidence from Genealogies)

  • 차명수
    • 한국인구학
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    • 제32권1호
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    • pp.113-137
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    • 2009
  • 이 논문의 목적은 족보에 나타난 생몰 기록을 근거로 조선후기의 사망력, 출산력, 인구 증가율을 추정하는 것이다. 족보에서 파악되 양반 남성의 사망력 수준을 식민지기 사망력 추계 및 모델 생명표를 이용해 전체 인구의 사망력으로 변환한 결과 18, 19세기 우리나라 남성의 출생시 기대여명은 23세로 추정되었다. 족보에서 계산된 양반 여성의 출산력 수준으로부터 여성 초혼 연령 및 식민지기 출산력 추계를 이용해서 전체 인구의 출산력을 추정한 결과는 조선 후기의 합계 출산율이 6.81이었음을 알려주었다. 추정된 조선 후기 사망력 및 출산력 지표를 안정 인구를 묘사하는 방정식에 대입해서 추정한 18, 19세기의 인구 증가율은 0.62%였다.

Biological aspects and population dynamics of Indian mackerel (Rastrelliger kanagurta) in Barru, Makassar Strait, Indonesia

  • Andi Asni;Hasrun;Ihsan;Najamuddin
    • Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • 제27권6호
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    • pp.392-409
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    • 2024
  • The present study aims to analyze the biological aspects and population dynamics of Indian mackerel in Barru waters. Data was collected in Barru for 11 months, from June 2022 to April 2023. The observed parameters of biological aspects included gonadal maturation stages (GMSs), size at first gonadal maturation, and length-weight relationship. Meanwhile, the aspects of population dynamics encompass age group, growth, mortality rate, and exploitation rate. Data analysis consisted of morphological selection of general maturation stages, Spearman-Kärber method in estimating gonadal first maturation size, Bhattacharya method in identifying age group, von Bertalanffy function through FISAT II to measure growth (L and K), Pauly Model to estimate mortality rate, Beverton & Holt Model to estimate Y/R, and virtual population analysis (VPA) analysis to estimate stock and fish yield. The results demonstrated that GMS I was observed to be dominant, followed by stages II and III. The initial gonadal maturation was estimated to be 17.98-19.28 cm (FL) for females and 17.98-19.27 cm (FL) for males. The length-weight relationship in male and female Indian mackerels indicated a positive allometric growth. The mode grouping analysis results from the fork length measurement revealed three age groups. It was also identified that the asymptotic length (L) = 29.5 cm (fork length), growth rate coefficient (K) = 0.46 per year, and theoretical age at zero length (t0) = -0.3576 per year. Total mortality (Z) = 2.67 per year, natural mortality (M) = 1.10 per year, fishing mortality (F) = 1.57 per year, and exploitation rate (E) = 0.59, the actual Y/R = 0.083 gram/recruitment, and optimal Y/R 0.03 gram/recruitment. Fishing mortality is higher than the natural mortality rate, and a high exploitation value (E > 0.5) also reflects over-exploitation. VPA analysis on fish yields and stock estimation reported a highly exploited rate between the 11.5 cm and 14.5 cm length classes and an exceeding current yield of 467.07 tons/year with a recommended yield of 233.53 tons/year to ensure population sustainability.

우리나라의 지역 특성이 지역 경제 성장에 미치는 요인과 영향 분석 (Analyzing Factors and Impacts of Regional Characteristics to Regional Economic Growth in South Korea)

  • 김근영
    • 도시과학
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    • 제9권1호
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    • pp.41-49
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    • 2020
  • This study analyzed the factors affecting economic growth using multiple regression model and Geographically Weighted Regression in consideration of population, industry and employment, housing and political characteristics on economic growth by region. The analysis results are summarized as follows. First, the total employment growth rate, manufacturing employment growth rate, local election turnout and the level of party consensus between the central and local governments are having a positive impact on regional economic growth. Second, according to the GWR analysis, the population has a positive impact on economic growth in the southern region of Korea, and the increase in the total number of employees has a positive impact on the southern region of Gyeonggi Province, Gangwon Province, North Chungcheong Province and North Gyeongsang Province. Finally, the voter turnout of urbanites is positively affecting economic growth in South Chungcheong Province, Gangwon Province and the southern coast, while North Jeolla and South Jeolla provinces have a positive impact on economic growth as the parties of the central and local governments are equal. The results of this study may suggest the role of local government for regional economic development.