• International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.63-70
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• 2022

This study is to investigate that population change as a result of the decline in population has a correlation with a decrease in crime, with the change in the demographic composition by comparing with two models: model with growth in population and one with the decline in population. We collected demographic data for all cities in Korea from the 2010 Census to 2020 offered by the Korean Statistical Information Service, with crime data comprising serious reported crime events from the Korean Nation Police Agency through requesting data related to the total number of crimes at the same as the period of demographic data. This study can identify the impacts of demographic changes as a result of population change on crime change through a comparative analysis between areas with population growth and ones with population decline. We can confirm that there are differences in determinants of crime between areas with population increase and one with population decrease from the analysis of the impact of demographic change as a result of population change on crime change.

• Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.99-107
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• 2019

This paper analyzed the characteristics of population change from 2000 to 2018 in 466 mountainous areas using resident registration data from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety, and projected the population in those areas through 2050 with the cohort change ratio method. The population had dramatically decreased from 2000 to 2009. With the slowing population decrease after 2010, the population has increased gradually since 2014. Especially the population of ages over 65 in 2018 had increased 34% compared to 2000, while the working age population had decreased 29%. This shows that population aging becomes serious problems in the mountainous area. Assuming the cohort change ratios from 2010 to 2015 and child-woman ratio in 2015 remain constant, it appeared that the projected population of the mountainous area dropped to 1.26 million in 2030 and 820,000 in 2050. It is expected to have a population with an inverted pyramid structure showing a gender imbalance with more females in 60's and 70's. Although it continues to show the recent population growth in mountainous area, population in mountainous area is expected to consistently decrease. Therefore, it is required to develop policies and strategies to promote an influx of people into mountainous area for maintaining functionality and sustainability of mountainous areas.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.1-16
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• 1994

Since 1962, the population growth control has been one of the most important aims in the 5-Year So-cioeconomic Development Plans of Korea. The annual population growth rate has dropped to tess than 1 percent in 1990 from about 3 percents in 1960s, and projected to reach to $\ulcorner$0$\urcorner$ percent in 2021. From 2021, Korean population will decrease and the age structure will be distorted because birth rate will drop suddenly and continuously. Thus, we can consider $\ulcorner$0$\urcorner$ growth population for minimizing the prob- lems on the decreasing population. To discuss the problems caused from the changes of population size and age- sex composition, we projected three kinds of population including two kinds of $\ulcorner$0$\urcorner$ growth population under different as- sumptions. The first is the population which extended the projection of National Statistical Office up to 2090. Because the TFR is assumed and fixed as low as 1.63 after 1990, the population growth rate will be under $\ulcorner$0$\urcorner$ in 2021 and drop by about 1 percent every year from around 2050. This population trend results to old age population : 38.1 of old- age dependency ratio and 46.5 years of median age. The second is the population which the size in 2021 projected by the NOS continues after 2021. To change over from the decreasing population after 2021 to the $\ulcorner$0$\urcorner$ growth one, the TFR should be in-creased up to over 3.0 in 2040-2050, which fertility level would be too high to be accepted. The third is the population which approaches to the $\ulcorner$0$\urcorner$ growth population under the assumptions that the TFR increases from 1.63 to 2.1 in the period of 2010-2030 and then the same level continues. Although the maximum population size reaches 51, 503 thousand persons, the population will approach to the stationary population with about 42.4 million persons around 2090. In this projected population there is no more serious problems on population composition, on the rapid decrease of population, and on the increase TFR level. When the $\ulcorner$0$\urcorner$ growth population continues the problems of over population caused by the populationincrease wou]d be minimized, and the problems of unusual age composition resulted from the popula-tion decrease would not be found any more. Furthermore, when the changes of population size and composition is continuing slowly, the factors of population would effect moderately to socioeconomic development and help social changes. Therefore, with the attention of the present population changes, we should adapt new and detailde population policy which is able to get the $\ulcorner$0$\urcorner$ growth population.

• Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea Planning & Design
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• v.35 no.4
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• pp.127-134
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• 2019

Recently, the city development policies are being switched to the policies focusing on recession worldwide. Even though South Korea is also facing the phenomena that small and medium-sized cities are downsized because of a decrease in population and an aging society problem, there is lack of solutions and even they are still planning city development policies based on prospect of high growth. This study is featuring 4 viewpoints depending on shrinking population trend in 7 small and medium sized local cities, which are chosen as downsized cities. It is dealing with population peak, current population, 2030 population, and 2040 population viewpoints. And this study uses downsizing simulation that suggests optimum area that fits population and then shows visual check of the status of the small and medium sized local cities. The area of the small and medium sized local cities are expanded more than needs when they are on population peak point. However, they need only 20% to 25% of current area in 2030 and 2040. The most important thing is realizing the seriousness and facing up to the 'shrinking' phenomena that each small and medium-sized cities suffer. Therefore, this study has significance for presenting the status of small and medium-sized cities' problems in South Korea.

• Economic Analysis
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.133-166
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• 2020

Since the mid-1990s, Korea has been aging rapidly. At the same time, real interest rates have declined sharply. This paper studies whether population aging has contributed to the real interest rate decrease in Korea. We first present empirical evidence that increases in life expectancy and the old-age-dependency ratio, and a fall in population growth, i.e., the population aging, decrease real interest rates. Then we calibrate a life-cycle model to capture the features of the old-age-dependency ratio and population growth in Korea, and show that population aging accounts for about one third of the fall in real interest rates between 1995 and 2018. Furthermore, according to simulation results, increased life expectancy is more important than decreased population growth in affecting the real interest rate decrease during the period.

• Korean Journal of Childcare and Education
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.169-194
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• 2024

Objective: The purpose of this study is to develop a child-care support policy strategy in response to the decrease in the population of children aged 0-5 years. This will be achieved by collecting opinions from a panel of experts on child-care support policies through a Delphi survey. Methods: To achieve the purpose of this study, a panel of 20 experts in child-care policy was selected, and a Delphi survey was conducted over three sessions. Data collected through the Delphi survey underwent analysis, including frequency analysis, descriptive statistics, content validity ratio, coefficient of variation, agreement, and convergence. Data processing was carried out using Excel 2016 and SPSS 26.0. Results: As a result of the study, a child-care support policy strategy addressing the decrease in the population of children aged 0-5 years was developed, comprising three policy areas, nine policy tasks, and 38 detailed policy tasks. Conclusion/Implications: Based on these results, it is anticipated that the study will not only enable the preparation of a strategy for child-care support policy to address the decrease in the population of children aged 0-5 years but also offer significant implications for shaping the direction of child-care support policy in alignment with the common good.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.42 no.6
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• pp.930-939
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• 2007

This study intends to demonstrate that the population decrease in the City of Busan has been resulted from the move of the city's population towards suburbs as well as the out-migration towards the Seoul metropolitan area. To grasp the pattern in the spatial shift of the Busan's population, I analyze the change of population and households within the city and the migration at the inter-regional and intra-metropolitan scales. The major findings of the study are as follows: First, Busan has experienced population decline since 1995, as other large cities, such as Seoul and Daegu have done. Second, despite the population decrease, the number of households has been increased in Busan. Third, the residents of Busan have mostly moved not only to the Seoul metropolitan area but also to the suburban region of Busan. This finding may well contradict the long-standing belief that the continued decrease in the Busan population could be the result of the out-migration toward the Seoul metropolitan area. Fourth, the residential suburbanization in Busan can be interpreted as the extensive intra-metropolitan dispersion, which means the growth of the Busan metropolitan area.

• Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.1-9
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• 2022

Rural decline due to the decrease of the local population is an inevitable phenomenon, and a vicious cycle has been formed between a lack of basic living services and a population decrease in rural areas. Therefore, the study aims to derive the migration decision-making characteristics based on basic living service infrastructure data in rural areas. To do this, the population change over the past 20 years was categorized into six types, and the relationship between the classified population change types and the number of basic living service infrastructures was analyzed using decision tree analysis. Of the total 3,501 regions, 801 regions were the continuous decline type, of which 740 were rural areas. On the other hand, among 569 regions that were the continuous increase type, 401 regions were urban areas, confirming the population imbalance between rural and urban areas. As a result of the decision tree analysis on the relationship between population change types and the distribution of basic living service infrastructure, the number of daycare centers was derived as an important variable to classify the continuous increase type. Hospitals, parks, and public transportation were also found to be major basic living services affecting the classification of population change types.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• v.30 no.1
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• pp.33-52
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• 2023

This study observes the difference in the actual regional ripple effect of the decrease in admission resources due to the decrease in school age population, which has been weak in empirical studies, and how much the decrease in competition rate by department nationwide provides a significant shock to the decrease in enrollment rate in the population unit. An empirical quantitative analysis was attempted. As a result of applying the panel-tobit regression model, a clear gap was confirmed in the decrease in the registration rate due to the decrease in the competition rate both nationally and in the provinces, and in particular, a highly significant relationship was derived with the decrease in the recruitment rate. In particular, the sensitivity of the risk of unrecruitment due to a decrease in competition rate was the highest in the Jeolla region (0.499), followed by the Gangwon region (0.475) and the Gyeongsang region (0.471), and the metropolitan region (0.158) was confirmed to be the most stable. This suggests that the gap in insufficient funding has gradually widened by region over the past 10 years, and that the shock wave becomes more pronounced in the provinces farther away from the metropolitan area. Based on this study, if we deviate from the standardized application of university development policies for the metropolitan area and regional universities, and present a customized higher education strategy for each region, it will be an opportunity to prevent local extinction due to a decrease in the school-age population and achieve coexistence with higher education institutions and regions at the same time.

• Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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• v.50 no.1
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• pp.6-15
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• 2024

Background: People's activities have been restricted due to the COVID-19 pandemic. These changes in activity patterns may lead to a decrease in fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentrations. Additionally, the level of population exposure to PM_2.5 may be changed. Objectives: This study aimed to analyze the impact of population movement and meteorological factors on the distribution of PM_2.5 concentrations before and after the outbreak of COVID-19. Methods: The study area was Guro-gu in Seoul. The research period was selected as January to March 2020, a period of significant population movement changes caused by COVID-19. The evaluation of the dynamic population was conducted by calculating the absolute difference in population numbers between consecutive hours and comparing them to determine the daily average. Ambient PM_2.5 concentrations were estimated for each grid using ordinary kriging in Python. For the population exposure assessment, the population-weighted average concentration was calculated by determining the indoor to outdoor population for each grid and applying the indoor to outdoor ratio to the ambient PM_2.5 concentration. To assess the factors influencing changes in the ambient PM_2.5 concentration, a statistical analysis was conducted, incorporating population mobility and meteorological factors. Results: Through statistical analysis, the correlation between ambient PM_2.5 concentration and population movement was positive on both weekends and weekdays (r=0.71, r=0.266). The results confirmed that most of the relationships were positive, suggesting that a decrease in human activity can lead to a decrease in PM_2.5 concentrations. In addition, when population-weighted concentration averages were calculated and the exposure level of the population group was compared before and after the COVID-19 outbreak, the proportion of people exceeding the air quality standard decreased by approximately 15.5%. Conclusions: Human activities can impact ambient concentrations of PM_2.5, potentially altering the levels of PM_2.5 exposure in the population.