• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.32-40
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• 1986

The purpose of the paper is to examine the nature of population distribution during the past 25 years; to evaluate effect of population redistribution policies which have been adopted by the government; and to suggest desirable future policy directions. The distinctive features of population distribution during the period of 196O~85 can be summarized as progress of rapid urbanization, decrease of absolute number of rural population and heavy concentration of population in the Seoul metropolitan area which have resulted in population maldistribution among regions. The problem of population concentration in the selected one or two large urban centers was first recognized by the government as early as in 1964. Since then numerous policy measures have been adopted to reduce the population concentration into the Seoul metropolitan area and thus to guide a sound population redistribution among regions. The overall assessment of various policies on population redistribution, however, revealed that the effect of the policy efforts has not been great as they originally anticipated. Various reasons can be cited for the failure of the past policies. Among them the followings were frequently mentioned; lack of integration among policy measures; weak linkage between relocation and accommodation; and non-existence of single authority for overall implementation of the polices. Based on the past experiences the followings are suggested in pursuing future policies. First, the short-term objective or target should be clearly defined. Second, policy measures have to be designed to go with rather than against market forces. Third, indirect incentives or aids are more effective than direct controls or regulations. Fourth, local participation has to be secured in every phase of policy formulation and implementation.

• Land and Housing Review
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.21-38
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• 2020

This study examined the population movement of the young generation in accordance with the characteristics of housing market focusing on the housing problem of youth issues. Targeting 64 local governments in the seoul metropolitan area, the temporal range was decided as 2015. Setting up the rising population in 19-34 as a dependent variable, supposing that each age group shows different characteristics, it was divided into age groups in 19~34, 19~29, and 25~34. The population movement of the young generation in accordance with the characteristics of housing market was considered through the multiple regression analysis. In the results, the population movement of the young generation was influenced by the change in detached multi-family housing and the rate of housing supply. The increase of detached multi-family housing promoted the population inflow of the young generation while the population movement of the young generation was disturbed by the rising rate of housing supply. Also, when the local characteristics are not controlled, the young generation hesitates to enter the region where relatively high rent should be paid while the new housing supply focusing on apartment is hard to be selected by the young generation for residence because of the size and price. The population movement of the young generation looked quite different in each age group. The population inflow of the young generation in 19~29 was influenced when there were many officetels and non-apartments on top of detached multi-family housing. On the contrary, the population movement of the young generation in 25~34 was significantly influenced by the increase of the whole size of completed apartment area. Even though it was not the research subject of this study, among control variables, the financial independence and daily average number of get-on/off had effects on the movement of the young generation. It means that the housing type preferred by college students and social novices is different from the housing type preferred by the group with experiences in marriage and childbirth within the same young generation. Thus, it would be necessary to divide the purposes of policies for each subject when executing the youth housing policies.

• Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.351-365
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• 2019

This study aims to predict the changes in population distribution in Korea by considering spatio-temporal characteristics of major migration reasons. For the purpose, we analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics of each major migration reason(such as job, family, housing, and education) and estimate the transition probability, respectively. By appling Markov chain model processes with the ChapmanKolmogorov equation based on the transition probability, we predict the changes in the population distribution for the next six years. As the results, we found that there were differences of population changes by regions, while there were geographic movements into metropolitan areas and cities in general. The methodologies and the results presented in this study can be utilized for the provision of customized planning policies. In the long run, it can be used as a basis for planning and enforcing regionally tailored policies that strengthen inflow factors and improve outflow factors based on the trends of population inflow and outflow by region by movement factors as well as identify the patterns of population inflow and outflow in each region and predict future population volatility.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.34 no.5
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• pp.823-835
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• 2021

Identification of factors influencing regional population is critical for establishing government's population policies as well as for improving residents' social, economic and cultural well-being in the region. In this study we analysed the data from 2019 Population Housing Survey in Korea to identify the factors affecting the population size in each of the three regions: Seoul, metropolitan cities, and provincial regions. We applied a Bayesian quantile regression to account for asymmetry and heteroscedasticity of data. The analysis results showed that the effects of factors vary greatly between the three regions of Seoul, metropolitan cities, and provincial regions as well as between sub regions within the same region. These results suggest that population-related variables have very heterogeneous characteristics from region to region and therefore it is important to establish customized population policies that suit regional characteristics rather than uniform population policies that apply to every region.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2002.10a
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• pp.42.1-42
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• 2002

A model to predict population by sex, age and district over a long-range period is proposed based on fuzzy theories. First, a fuzzy model is described. Second, a method to estimate the social increase by sex and age in each district is proposed based on a fuzzy clustering method for dealing with long-range socioeconomic changes in population migration. By the proposed methods, it became possible to predict the population by sex, age and district over a long-range period. Third, the structure and characteristics of the three models of employment model, time distance model, and land use model constructed to predict various socioeconomic indicators, which are require...

• Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.139-146
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• 2016

Aging phenomenon is an important issue in Korea national policy. This aging phenomenon depends on the social and environmental characteristics of regions. Also aging phenomenon and regional characteristics have spatial dependency. The purpose of this study is to discover the spatial changes in aging population rate and to find local factors of regional aging phenomenon considering spatial autocorrelation. For spatial analysis of ageing phenomenon, local Moran's I and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) were applied. As the results, the most significant changes of aging phenomenon appeared between 2000 and 2005, and most of hot-spot regions (aged regions) were distributed in Jullanam-do and Jullabuk-do. The results of GWR (R-square: 0.681) shows that total fertility rate, the number of doctor per 1,000 people and forest area rate have positive relation with aging population rate, but the number of private academy per 1,000 people has negative relation.

• Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.1-9
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• 2019

Population is important as a fundamental element of local industry and economy, and census data is essential to regional planning and policy making. Although there have been many researches on population and regional planning, there are few studies on population considering spatial unit. In this study, the population of three spatial scales were compared in order to establish the spatial unit suitable for the rural planning. The study area is Gangwon, Chungcheong-Nam, Chungcheong-Buk, Jeolla-Nam, Jeolla-Buk, Gyeonsang-Nam, Gyeonsang-Buk and Jeju province. Population were compared using statistical data analysis, GIS visualization, and spatial statistics. The mean, maximum, minimum, and variance of population were calculated and the coefficient of variation according to spatial unit was compared. The mean, maximum, minimum, and variance of population were calculated and the coefficient of variation according to spatial unit was compared. As the results, the census output area unit is difficult to interpret spatial analysis results. Administrative district unit has the limit that includes areas where the population does not live. The grid unit is well suited to the geographical characteristics but has many disadvantages of the grid with small population. Therefore, It is necessary to complement the limits of the Eup and Myeon-dong administrative district through the grid unit data.

• Journal of the Korean housing association
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.97-104
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• 2005

The purpose of this study is to understand changes of the population and family composition in apartment houses. The main contents of this study is to find the way of housing planning through the analysis of the population and family composition by the unit types. The population and family composition were studied by computer data base program to 11,000 residents of selection 4 apartments houses. The structure of the family types proved to be constant by the result of analyzing the 10 family types. If the family types of certain resident's groups are given, this study will be able to estimate population structure to them. The transition of the population and the family composition changes to the unit types proved to be constant by the time. The distribution of manhood and matured children is tend to change according to how large the size of house is, and to change the structure of family composition.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.10
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• pp.145-157
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• 1981

Regional relocation of population in Korea is required strongly from natural and environmental sides for substantial growth of economy and the rigorous revival national economy against especially internationalization. This paper aimed for analysed the population distribution by regional and special characteristics of the inter-migration and showed the direction of population policy through the model building. Relocation methods of population by region has been examined through the process from the approach method by Haurin's production function to the approach by the utility function. The examination of the development model is done efficiently, how utility these approach models are depends on that scientific and composite plan for population problems against forced policy should be taken precedence.

• Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.69-78
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• 2012

Korean population has been rapidly aging. Most of people regard the aging population as future crisis due to the rate of change and agree to prepare for a soft-landing on aging society in South Korea. Particularly, the aging population growth in rural areas is much faster than urban areas. Also rural areas relatively have poorer social and economic conditions so the countermeasures for population aging considering related social and economic indices are required. Moreover, each rural region has the different preparedness level for rural aging based on regional socio-economic characteristics. In this study, we analyzed correlations of the rural aging rate and local characteristics and developed an evaluation index to show the regional preparedness status for rural aging. To test the applicability of developed indicators, we applied them to 161 rural regions and assessed regional preparedness level for rural aging. This study would provide basic data for establishing policies for rural aging.