• Title/Summary/Keyword: population change

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Change Prediction of Future Forestland Area by Transition of Land Use Types in South Korea (로지스틱 회귀모형을 이용한 우리나라 산지면적의 공간변화 예측에 관한 연구)

  • KWAK, Doo-Ahn;PARK, So-Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.99-112
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    • 2021
  • This study was performed to predict spatial change of future forestland area in South Korea at regional level for supporting forest-related plans established by local governments. In the study, land use was classified to three types which are forestland, agricultural land, and urban and other lands. A logistic regression model was developed using transitional interaction between each land use type and topographical factors, land use restriction factors, socioeconomic indices, and development infrastructures. In this model, change probability from a target land use type to other land use types was estimated using raster dataset(30m×30m) for each variable. With priority order map based on the probability of land use change, the total annual amount of land use change was allocated to the cells in the order of the highest transition potential for the spatial analysis. In results, it was found that slope degree and slope standard value by the local government were the main factors affecting the probability of change from forestland to urban and other land. Also, forestland was more likely to change to urban and other land in the conditions of a more gentle slope, lower slope criterion allowed to developed, and higher land price and population density. Consequently, it was predicted that forestland area would decrease by 2027 due to the change from forestland to urban and others, especially in metropolitan and major cities, and that forestland area would increase between 2028 and 2050 in the most local provincial cities except Seoul, Gyeonggi-do, and Jeju Island due to locality extinction with decline in population. Thus, local government is required to set an adequate forestland use criterion for balanced development, reasonable use and conservation, and to establish the regional forest strategies and policies considering the future land use change trends.

Impacts of Large-scale Reclamation on Environment in Korea (한국의 대규모 간척사업이 주변의 환경 변화에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Hyoun-Young;Lee, Seung-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.463-478
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    • 1997
  • This paper examines the impact of large-scale tidal flat reclamations on environment by analyzing land use change, ocean cultivation, water quality, sea biota and climate in Shiwha, Sosan and Saemankeum districts. The data used in this paper include Landsat TM images and documents related to population, industry, water quality, sea biota and climate at the time of the pre- and post-reclamation. Many times of field reclamations contribute to the creatation of newly available land for urban and industrial development, but cause environmental degradation significantly. The increase of pollution load and the change of coastal ecology, also cause some changes of climatic element such as relative humidity. As tidal flats were reduced, the area of ocean cultivation and the population of fishing industries were decreased. Conceming the sustainable development. it is necessary to carry out a careful environmental impact assessment accumulating monitoring environmental data continuously by using GIS techniques.

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The effect of sodium and potassium intake on blood pressure change in Korean adolescents (Sodium(Na)과 Potassium(K) 섭취가 청소년의 혈압변화에 미치는 영향)

  • Suh, Il;Nam, Chung-Mo;Lee, Kang-Hee;Jee, Sun-Ha;Kim, Suk-Il;Kim, Gyu-Sang;Kim, Chun-Bae
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.31 no.3 s.62
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    • pp.384-394
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    • 1998
  • In order to investigate the effect of the urinary excretion of sodium and potassium on the change on blood pressure over 3 years, 668 adolescents aged 13 years living in Kangwha area were investigated in a longitudinal follow-up study. Two measurements were taken on each blood pressure (diastolic, systolic) and the average of the two readings was used in the analysis. Sodium and potassium intake were estimated by the determination of those electrolytes in 24hr urine. The mixed model regression analysis was used to identify the effect of urinary sodium and potassium on the change of blood pressure after controlling for BMI of each age. On simple bivariate analysis no relationship was found between urinary sodium excretion and systolic or diastolic blood pressure among both male and female, however, a significant positive association between urinary potassium excretion and systolic blood pressure among male. The results of mixed regression analysis showed that the body mass index (BMI) were more influential that urinary electrolytes among this study subjects. It suggested that risk factors observed from the adults, may not be identical with that of the growing aged population. After control of the BMI and age, significant association between sodium and diastolic BP among male, and association between potassium and systolic BP among female, were found. In summary, the results indicate that growth has been more influential than dietary factor on blood pressure for growing aged population.

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Lack of p53 Gene Nucleotide Change in Mutation Hot Spots During HeLa Cell Apoptosis by Adriamycin (아드리아마이신에 의한 HeLa 세포의 자살 과정 중 p53 유전자의 돌연변이 빈발 부위에서의 핵산 변화의 부재)

  • Ryu, Seung-Wook;Kim, Jung-Woo;Kim, Eun-Hee
    • The Journal of Natural Sciences
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.31-37
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    • 1997
  • Apoptosis is an important event in the anticancer drug therapy. p53 was demonstrated to serve a key component to lead tumor cell death by inducing apoptosis. However, recent study showed the presence of p53 independent apoptotic pathway (Gaftenhaus et al., 1996). We were curious to know it apoptosis induced by adriamycin, a genotoxic anticancer agent, involved p53 gene mutation. Thus this study investigated the p53 gene mutation status among HeLa cell population during apoptosis induced by adriamycin. Under our experimental condition, 12 hour treatment of 1 ${\mu}m$ adriamycin caused apoptosis which was monitored by DNA fragmentation assay. In order to see the p53 gene mutation status, exons of 5, 7 and 8 of p53 gene, where previously reported p53 mutation hot spots reside, were amplified by PCR and nucleotide sequence change was scanned. However, no nucleotide change was observed among apoptotic HeLa cell population. Therefore this study demonstrated that adriamycin induced apoptosis without causing p53 gene damage.

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Planning Health Promotion Program in Workplace (산업장 건강증진 프로그램 개발에 관한 연구 -건강행위의 변화의도 예측요인 및 대상의 유형 분류를 중심으로-)

  • Coon, Kyeong-Ja;Kim, Hwa-Joong
    • Research in Community and Public Health Nursing
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.5-29
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    • 1994
  • In recent years, interests in health promotion have been stimulated by the epidemiological transition from infectious to chronic diseases as lead ing causes of death, the aging of the population, rapidly escalating health care costs, and epidemiologic findings linking individual risk to morbidity and mortality. It is not surprising that the workplace has been targeted as a promising setting for health promotion. In Korea, national attention to the opportunities for workplace health promotion began in the first 1990s. But there is no in depth study to identify the relating factors to the health promotion program in the workplace. The objective of this study is behavioral and physical characteristics to find that in crease the person's risk for a range of health problems and to analysis other characteristics to influence the degree of his/her intention to change health behavior. In addition, this study is purposed to present the process of planning health promotion program in the workplace. To accomplish these objectives, one workplaces was selected. And 363 employees in those workplaces were served as subjects for the study. Major findings in this study are as follows. (1) They have many risk factors such as smoking, drinking, lack of sleep, law rate of regular exercise, irregular eating, stress. (2) Some of the health risk factors such as smoking, drinking, and stress have the negative correlation to the intention to change. (3) Among cognitive and socio-environmental factors, significant predictors to the intention are attitude and social support. (4) In the cluster analysis to segment the target population in to homogeneous unit, three clusters of lifestyle are specified. (5) Smoking cessation and exercise program are planned for the risk group to change their behavior.

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Forecasting a Gyeongju's Local Society Change Using Urban Dynamics Model (도시동태모델을 이용한 경주 지역사회변화 예측)

  • Lee, Young-Chan
    • Korean Management Science Review
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.27-43
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    • 2008
  • This study analyzes the changes of Gyeongju local society because of setting up low and intermediate level radioactive waste disposal site by using urban dynamics model. Specifically, after examining 'Gyeongju Long-Term Development Plan' announced in 2007, I establish the number of industries, population, gross local product, residents' income, and the long term employment condition as essential change-causing factors in Gyeongju local society based on the Big3 government project, and forecast it by using 'Gyeongju long-Term Development Plan' and all sorts of statistical data. In this stage, I assume 3 scenarios(basic, optimistic, and pessimistic view) to estimate the changes of local society more exquisitely, and scenarios are composed through mediation about variables of a growth rate and an inflow or outflow rate. The result shows that Gyeonaju local society would have growing changes by 2020. The essential change-causing factors are as follows. The case of population is estimated that it starts going down at the level of approximately 270 thousand by 2009, starts going up continuously after 2009, the year of completion of low and intermediate level radioactive waste disposal site, and increases from the level of about 300 thousand as minimum to 340 thousand as maximum in 2020. The estimates of other cases are made that the number of Industries has about 10 thousand increases, gross local product has almost 6 trillion increases, nominal gross national income doubles, as well as residences have approximately 280 thousand increases, and also made that employment condition also improves continuously, and diffusion ratio of house starts going up but the amount of supplies is a little bit insufficient in the long view.

Change of Cognitive Function and Associated Factors among the Rural Elderly: A 5-Year Follow-up Study (추적관찰을 통한 일개 농촌 노인의 인지기능변화와 관련요인)

  • Kim, Sang-Kyu;Hwang, Tae-Yoon;SaKong, Joon;Lee, Kyeong-Soo;Kang, Pock-Soo
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.162-168
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    • 2007
  • Objectives : This prospective population-based cohort study was conducted to evaluate the risk factors of cognitive impairment and the degree of cognitive function change through a 5-year follow-up. Methods : The baseline and follow-up surveys were conducted in 1998 and 2003, respectively, Among 176 subjects who had normal cognitive function in the baseline study, 136 were followed up for 5 years. The cognitive function was investigated using the Korean version of the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE-K). The collected data were analyzed using SPSS and Stata. Results : Of the 136 subjects analyzed, 25 (18.4%) were cognitively impaired. Old age and low social support in the baseline survey were risk factors for cognitive impairment after 5 years. In the generalized estimating equation for 128 subjects except severe cognitive impairment about the contributing factors of cognitive function change, the interval of 5 years decreased MMSE-K score by 1.02 and the cognitive function was adversely affected with increasing age, decreasing education and decreasing social support. Conclusions : Although the study population was small, it was considered that the study results can be used to develop a community-based prevention system for cognitive impairment.

Modeling water supply and demand under changing climate and socio-economic growth over Gilgit-Baltistan of Pakistan using WEAP

  • Mehboob, Muhammad Shafqat;Panda, Manas Ranjan;Kim, Yeonjoo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2020.06a
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    • pp.116-116
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    • 2020
  • Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) is a highly mountainous and remote region covering 45% of Upper Indus Basin (UIB) with around 1.8 million population is vulnerable to climate change and socio-economic growth makes water resources management and planning more complex. To understand the water scarcity in the region this study is carried out to project water supply and demand for agricultural and domestic sector under various climate-socio-economic scenarios in five sub catchments of GB i.e., Astore, Gilgit, Hunza, Shigar and Shyok for a period of 2015 to 2050 using Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model. For climate change scenario ensembled mean of three global climate models (GCMs) was used under three different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and agricultural Land Development (LD) scenarios were combined with climate scenarios to develop climate-socio-economic scenario. Our results indicate that the climate change and socio-economic growth would create a gap between supply and demand of water in the region, with socio-economic growth (e.g. agricultural and population) as dominant external factor that would reduce food production and increase poverty level in the region. Among five catchments only Astore and Gilgit will face shortfall of water while Shyoke would face shortfall of water only under agricultural growth scenarios. We also observed that the shortfall of water in response to climate-socio-economic scenarios is totally different over two water deficient catchments due to its demography and geography. Finally, to help policy makers in developing regional water resources and management policies we classified five sub catchments of UIB according to its water deficiency level.

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Effectiveness of Public Health Center Smoking Cessation Counseling Program using the Transtheoretical Model (범이론적 모형을 적용한 대면적 금연상담 프로그램의 효과)

  • Kim, Yun-Hee;Kim, Jung-Soon;Kim, Myoung-Soo
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.469-479
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    • 2009
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to identify the effectiveness of public health center smoking cessation counseling program using the transtheoretical model on the process of change, smoking temptation, decisional balance and stage change transition. Methods: A nonequivalent control group non-synchronized design was used for this study. The study population was 115 adult smokers. The counseling program was administered to the experimental group and a smoking cessation program from the Korean Ministry of Health & Welfare was administered to the control group. Descriptive analysis, $\chi^2-test$, t-test, and ANCOVA were used with the SPSS 12.0 program to analyze the data. Results: After treatment with this program, the experimental group showed significantly higher scores for process of change (t=4.148, p<.001), smoking temptation (t=-2.988, p=.003), and stage change transition ($\chi^2=5.871$, p=.031) compared to the control group. Experimental group members also showed significantly lower score for Pros of smoking (t=-3.151, p=.002). Conclusion: The findings indicate that this program could have positive effect on process of change, smoking temptation, decisional balance and stage transition for adult smokers. Based on these findings, the authors suggest additional counseling program focusing on smokers in specific stages.

Identification of Molecular Markers for Population Diagnosis of Korean Fir (Abies koreana) Vulnerable to Climate Change

  • Kim, Dong Wook;Park, Da Young;Jeong, Dae Young;Park, Hyeong Cheol
    • Proceedings of the National Institute of Ecology of the Republic of Korea
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.68-73
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    • 2020
  • Korean fir (Abies koreana) is an evergreen coniferous tree species that is unique to South Korea. A. koreana is found in a limited sub-alpine habitat and is considered particularly vulnerable to climate change. Identification of populations vulnerable to climate change is an important component of conservation programs. In this study, a heat stress-induced transcriptome RNA-seq dataset was used to identify a subset of six genes for assessment as candidate marker genes for ecologically vulnerable populations. Samples of A. koreana were isolated from ecologically stable and vulnerable regions of the Halla and Jiri mountains, and the expression levels of the six candidate markers were assessed using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction. All six of the candidate genes exhibited higher expression levels in samples from vulnerable regions compared with stable regions. These results confirm that the six high temperature-induced genes can be used as diagnostic markers for the identification of populations of A. koreana that are experiencing stress due to the effects of climate change.