• Title/Summary/Keyword: point estimation

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A Study on the estimation of shelf-life and assessment plan of illuminating cartridges for mortar (박격포용 조명탄의 저장수명 예측 및 평가방안 연구)

  • Lee, Jongchan;Lee, Junhyuk;Jung, Hyunsuk
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.9
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    • pp.291-300
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    • 2020
  • The cartridges used for illuminating a desired point or area are virtually limited in tests and evaluations because of limitations, such as noise during launch, the possibility of fires caused by illuminant charge, and the annual testable quantity. Therefore, to solve these problems, a ground fixed test, which replaces the firing test, or an evaluation method to perform limited tests, can be applied more efficiently. In this paper, the results of an 81mm illuminating cartridge, KM series performed in 2019 were analyzed comprehensively to identify the trends in reliability and quality characteristics and to estimate the shelf life. The shelf life was estimated to be at least 10 years based on the time when the lower confidence level reached 80% at a confidence level of 90%. Considering only major defects, the shelf life can be estimated to be approximately 23 years. On the other hand, the shelf life was estimated to be approximately 11 to 15 years and 25 to 28 years according to the effective illuminating time. Finally, an assessment plan of illuminating cartridges for the mortars was also presented as an improvement plan for an assessment method in the future.

A modified Lee-Carter model based on the projection of the skewness of the mortality (왜도 예측을 이용한 Lee-Carter모형의 사망률 예측)

  • Lee, Hangsuck;Baek, Changryong;Kim, Jihyeon
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.41-59
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    • 2016
  • There have been continuous improvements in human life expectancy. Life expectancy is as a key factor in an aging population and can wreak severe damage on the financial integrity of pension providers. Hence, the projection of the accurate future mortality is a critical point to prevent possible losses to pension providers. However, improvements in future mortality would be overestimated by a typical mortality projection method using the Lee-Carter model since it underestimates the mortality index ${\kappa}_t$. This paper suggests a mortality projection based on the projection of the skewness of the mortality versus the typical mortality projection of the Lee-Carter model based on the projection of the mortality index, ${\kappa}_t$. The paper shows how to indirectly estimate future t trend with the skewness of the mortality and compares the results under each estimation method of the mortality index, ${\kappa}_t$. The analysis of the results shows that mortality projection based on the skewness presents less improved mortality at an elderly ages than the original projection.

A Study for Optimized Detecter Location Considering the Traffic Characteristics in National Highway (일반국도 통행특성을 고려한 지점검지기의 적정설치지점 선정에 관한 연구)

  • Byeon, Sang-Cheol;Lee, Seung-Jae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.24 no.2 s.88
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    • pp.19-30
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    • 2006
  • This study deals with the optimized detector location considering the traffic characteristics in National Highway. Although there ave many construction works for ITS in National Highway, there is not specific criteria for detector location which can effect the accuracy of traffic information. This study. therefore. aims to Provide the optimized detector location criteria which can represent the traffic characteristics of National Highway. It collects traffic factors of study area by GPS Probe-car and defector, and Presents the optimized detector location by the correlation analysis between spot-speed and link-travel-time. The main results of this study are as followings ; First, the correlation between the spot-speed and link-travel-time Presents the opposite bell shape of the graph (U-type owe) which is increased it?on the upstream then, declined through some unspecified Point of the link. Second, the optimized detector location usually distributes around midstream of link, even though it does not have a consistency. Third, therefore, the optimized detector location generally should be located between $55{\sim}60%$ of total link length. Forth. high level of vertical slope is one of the most important factors of detector location, so it should be excluded for determination of optimized detector location. Finally, expecting that the results of this study would improve the accuracy of travel time estimation and forecasting.

Efficient Uncertainty Analysis of TOPMODEL Using Particle Swarm Optimization (입자군집최적화 알고리듬을 이용한 효율적인 TOPMODEL의 불확실도 분석)

  • Cho, Huidae;Kim, Dongkyun;Lee, Kanghee
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.47 no.3
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    • pp.285-295
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    • 2014
  • We applied the ISPSO-GLUE method, which integrates the Isolated-Speciation-based Particle Swarm Optimization (ISPSO) with the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method, to the uncertainty analysis of the Topography Model (TOPMODEL) and compared its performance with that of the GLUE method. When we performed the same number of model runs for the both methods, we were able to identify the point where the performance of ISPSO-GLUE exceeded that of GLUE, after which ISPSOGLUE kept improving its performance steadily while GLUE did not. When we compared the 95% uncertainty bounds of the two methods, their general shapes and trends were very similar, but those of ISPSO-GLUE enclosed about 5.4 times more observed values than those of GLUE did. What it means is that ISPSOGLUE requires much less number of parameter samples to generate better performing uncertainty bounds. When compared to ISPSO-GLUE, GLUE overestimated uncertainty in the recession limb following the maximum peak streamflow. For this recession period, GLUE requires to find more behavioral models to reduce the uncertainty. ISPSO-GLUE can be a promising alternative to GLUE because the uncertainty bounds of the method were quantitatively superior to those of GLUE and, especially, computationally expensive hydrologic models are expected to greatly take advantage of the feature.

The Development and Application of Office Price Index for Benchmark in Seoul using Repeat Sales Model (반복매매모형을 활용한 서울시 오피스 벤치마크 가격지수 개발 및 시험적 적용 연구)

  • Ryu, Kang Min;Song, Ki Wook
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.33-46
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    • 2020
  • As the fastest growing office transaction volume in Korea, there's been a need for development of indicators to accurately diagnose the office capital market. The purpose of this paper is experimentally calculate to the office price index for effective benchmark indices in Seoul. The quantitative methodology used a Case-Shiller Repeat Sales Model (1991), based on actual multiple office transaction dataset with over minimum 1,653 ㎡ from Q3 1999 to 4Q 2019 in the case of 1,536 buildings within Seoul Metropolitan. In addition, the collected historical data and spatial statistical analysis tools were treated with the SAS 9.4 and ArcGIS 10.7 programs. The main empirical results of research are briefly summarized as follows; First, Seoul office price index was estimated to be 344.3 point (2001.1Q=100.0P) at the end of 2019, and has more than tripled over the past two decades. it means that the sales price of office per 3.3 ㎡ has consistently risen more than 12% every year since 2000, which is far above the indices for apartment housing index, announced by the MOLIT (2009). Second, between quarterly and annual office price index for the two-step estimation of the MIT Real Estate Research Center (MIT/CRE), T, L, AL variables have statistically significant coefficient (Beta) all of the mode l (p<0.01). Third, it was possible to produce a more stable office price index against the basic index by using the Moore-Penrose's pseoudo inverse technique at low transaction frequency. Fourth, as an lagging indicators, the office price index is closely related to key macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP(+), KOSPI(+), interest rates (5-year KTB, -). This facts indicate that long-term office investment tends to outperform other financial assets owing to high return and low risk pattern. In conclusion, these findings are practically meaningful to presenting an new office price index that increases accuracy and then attempting to preliminary applications for the case of Seoul. Moreover, it can provide sincerely useful benchmark about investing an office and predicting changes of the sales price among market participants (e.g. policy maker, investor, landlord, tenant, user) in the future.

Inferring Regional Scale Surface Heat Flux around FK KoFlux Site: From One Point Tower Measurement to MM5 Mesoscale Model (FK KoFlux 관측지에서의 지역 규모 열 플럭스의 추정 : 타워 관측에서 MM5 중규모 모형까지)

  • Jinkyu Hong;Hee Choon Lee;Joon Kim;Baekjo Kim;Chonho Cho;Seongju Lee
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.138-149
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    • 2003
  • Korean regional network of tower flux sites, KoFlux, has been initiated to better understand $CO_2$, water and energy exchange between ecosystems and the atmosphere, and to contribute to regional, continental, and global observation networks such as FLUXNET and CEOP. Due to heterogeneous surface characteristics, most of KoFlux towers are located in non-ideal sites. In order to quantify carbon and energy exchange and to scale them up from plot scales to a region scale, applications of various methods combining measurement and modeling are needed. In an attempt to infer regional-scale flux, four methods (i.e., tower flux, convective boundary layer (CBL) budget method, MM5 mesoscale model, and NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data) were employed to estimate sensible heat flux representing different surface areas. Our preliminary results showed that (1) sensible heat flux from the tower in Haenam farmland revealed heterogeneous surface characteristics of the site; (2) sensible heat flux from CBL method was sensitive to the estimation of advection; and (3) MM5 mesoscale model produced regional fluxes that were comparable to tower fluxes. In view of the spatial heterogeneity of the site and inherent differences in spatial scale between the methods, however, the spatial representativeness of tower flux need to be quantified based on footprint climatology, geographic information system, and the patch scale analysis of satellite images of the study site.

Motion Map Generation for Maintaining the Temporal Coherence of Brush Strokes in the Painterly Animation (회화적 애니메이션에서 브러시 스트로크의 시간적 일관성을 유지하기 위한 모션 맵 생성)

  • Park Youngs-Up;Yoon Kyung-Hyun
    • Journal of KIISE:Computer Systems and Theory
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    • v.33 no.8
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    • pp.536-546
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    • 2006
  • Painterly animation is a method that expresses painterly images with a hand-painted appearance from a video, and the most crucial element for it is the temporal coherence of brush strokes between frames. A motion map is proposed in this paper as a solution to the issue of maintaining the temporal coherence in the brush strokes between the frames. A motion map is the region that frame-to-frame motions have occurred. Namely, this map refers to the region frame-to-frame edges move by the motion information with the motion occurred edges as a starting point. In this paper, we employ the optical flow method and block-based method to estimate the motion information. The method that yielded the biggest PSNR using the motion information (the directions and magnitudes) acquired by various methods of motion estimation has been chosen as the final motion information to form a motion map. The created motion map determine the part of the frame that should be re-painted. In order to express painterly images with a hand- painted appearance and maintain the temporal coherence of brush strokes, the motion information was applied to only the strong edges that determine the directions of the brush strokes. Also, this paper seek to reduce the flickering phenomenon between the frames by using the multiple exposure method and the difference map created by the difference between images of the source and the canvas. Maintenance of the coherence in the direction of the brush strokes was also attempted by a local gradient interpolation to maintain the structural coherence.

A Study on the Estimation of Occupational Safety and Health Expense Rate by Safety Environment Change in Construction Industry (건설산업의 안전 환경 변화에 따른 산업안전보건 관리비 적정요율 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Se-Wook;Kim, Young-Suk;Choi, Seung-Ho;Choi, Jin-Woo
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.97-107
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    • 2013
  • Occupational safety and health management expense in construction industry means the monetary amount that the purchaser appropriates to prevent various disaster from happening during the construction period by setting aside a certain amount from subcontract based on the construction type and scale. The current appropriation standard of the Ministry of Employment and Labor has been enforced since its stipulation in 1988 although various policy changes for the safety in construction industry, e.g. the development of occupational safety management techniques in construction industry, changes in construction field site environment, cost depreciation, etc., are happening in Korea and overseas. Therefore, it is required at this point to examine whether the current occupational safety and health management expense appropriation is proper or not on the basis of time trend and the changes in the construction industry environment. Accordingly, this study aims at investigating the appropriation of occupational safety and health management expense for construction industry by the construction type and target expense in response to current construction industry environment and proposing the proper appropriation. The above research result proposes the calibration of the appropriation as specified and stipulated by the Ministry of Employment and Labor by the construction type and target expense, which is necessary to reflect the actual condition of the current construction industry environment.

Tunneling-induced Building Damage Risk Assessment System (터널굴착에 따른 인접건물 손상위험도 평가시스템)

  • Park, Yong-Won;Yoon, Hyo-Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.51-59
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    • 2002
  • This paper deals with development of a damage risk assessment system for adjacent buildings to under-passing tunnel face considering 3D-ground movement. The system consists of building and ground information module, monitoring data module, settlement evaluation module, and building damage risk assessment module. The major modules, settlement evaluation module and building damage assessment module, are based on settlement estimation model suggested by Attewell et al (1982) and the building damage assessment method by Mair et al. (1996). After estimating 3D-ground movements due to tunneling with settlement evaluation module, damage assessment far buildings is performed using building damage risk assessment module. The developed system has two major functions; 1) calculation of 3D-settlement with ground loss ($V_{s}$)or maximum settlement ($w_{max}$) and inflection point (i) using various empirical formulae, monitoring data, numerical results, and so on; 2) assessment of damage risk for adjacent buildings of arbitrary section with position change of tunnel face. The field data given by Boscadin and Cording (1989) leer the case of two-storied masonry building near the Metro tunnel in Washington D.C. was simulated to verify the applicability of the developed system.

A Study on Verification of Delivery Ratio Methodology for Basic Plan at TPLMs(Total Pollutant Load Management System) (수질오염총량관리계획 수립을 위한 유달율 적용방안 검증 연구)

  • Lee, Sung Jun;Rhee, Han Pil;Park, Ji Hyung;Kim, Yong Seok;Hwang, Ha Sun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.39 no.12
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    • pp.714-722
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    • 2017
  • The TPLMs is a system to manage the total amount of pollutants discharged from the watershed in order to achieve the target water quality of the river. In this process, the pollutant load can be classified into generation, discharge and delivery load. When using equation 2, the discharge coefficient should be 1. In case of using equation 3, it is considered that the discharge coefficient defined in the Technical Guideline should be applied. The delivery load is calculated as the product of the discharge load and the delivery ratio, and the delivery ratio is defined as the rate at which the pollutant discharged from the watershed reaches a specific point in the stream. In this study, the delivery ratio estimation method proposed by Hwang (2016) was applied to the Yonggang watershed in the Nakdong river. And the input data of QUALKO2 model was generated by using the estimated delivery ratio (equation 3) and the validation study was conducted by comparing with DRave (equation 2). As a result of the study, it is possible to use both the equation 2 and the equation 3, but it is necessary to change the methodology according to the application of the discharge coefficient.