• Title/Summary/Keyword: period error

Search Result 1,130, Processing Time 0.033 seconds

Multinomial Logit Modeling: Focus on Regional Rail Trips (다항로짓모형을 이용한 지역간 철도통행 연구)

  • Kim, Gyeong-Tae;Lee, Jin-Seon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.25 no.1 s.94
    • /
    • pp.109-119
    • /
    • 2007
  • Increasingly, the emphasis in regional Passenger rail Planning is finding ways to more efficiently use existing facilities, with particular attention being Paid to Policies designed to spread Peak-Period travel demand more evenly throughout the week with consideration of train classification. In this context the individual's choice of time to travel is of crucial significance. This paper investigates the use of multinomial logit analysis to model ridership by rail classification using data collected for travel from Seoul to Busan during the one week in October 2004. The Particular model form that was successfully calibrated was the multinomial logit (MNL) model : it describes the choice mechanism that will Permit rail systems and operations to be planned on a more reliable basis. The assumption of independently and identically distributed(IID) error terms in the MNL model leads to its infamous independence from irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property. Relaxation of the IID assumption has been undertaken along a number or isolated dimensions leading to the development of the MNL model. For business and related rail travel patterns, the most important variables of choice were time and frequency to the chosen destination. The calibrated model showed high agreement between observed and Predicted market shares. The model is expected to be of use to railroad authorities in Planning and determining business strategies in the Increasingly competitive environment or regional rail transport.

A Study on the Comparison of Injection Rate Measurement by the Bosch`s Method and the Zeuch`s Method (Bosch법과 Zeuch법에 의한 분사율 , 측정의 비교연구)

  • Ra, Jin-Hong;Kim, Jun-Hyo;An, Su-Gil
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
    • /
    • v.26 no.1
    • /
    • pp.65-75
    • /
    • 1990
  • There have been many methods for measuring the injection rate of diesel engines, but the results of them are not always identical and the reason for the discordance is not clear. Besides, a single shot injection equipment has been used for the fuel spray and the combustion research of diesel engines, but the results of experiment using the equipment don't apply to a volleyed shot injection of real engines. This paper investigates the merits and faults of the Bosch's method and the Zeuch's method, at the same, this paper also compares the injection rates of single shot inject rates of single shot injection and a volleyed shot injected by the Bosch's method. the results are summarized as follows: (1) The measurement error of the Bosch's method is about $\pm$1%, therefore, its accuracy is reliable. (2) By the Bosch's method, as the speed and the load of fuel pump increase, the injection rate becomes higher, on the contrary, the injection period(ms) shortens as the speed increases and the load decreases. (3) In this experiment, the injection rate of a single shot injection is lower than that of a volleyed shot injection under the same conditions. (4) The bulk modulus of elasticity using the Zeuch's method increases in proportion to the back pressure. (5) The Zeuch's method is less accurate than the Bosch's method.

  • PDF

Assessing Estimation Methods of the Expected Crashes using Panel Traffic Crash Data (패널교통사고자료 기반 기대교통사고건수 추정기법 평가)

  • Sin, Gang-Won
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.29 no.1
    • /
    • pp.103-111
    • /
    • 2011
  • To evaluate highway safety countermeasures or identify high risk sites, the expected crashes for a site (or segment) have been estimated using the panel crash data. Past studies show that two different methods can be employed to estimate the expected crashes: observed crash based method and empirical Bayes (EB) method. This study conducts a simulation study to analyze how the estimation errors of the two estimates are affected by the different structures of the panel crash data and the presence of the change in safety over time. The results disclose that the estimation errors of the observed crash based estimates (i.e. the mean observed crash and comparative parallel estimate) are always greater than those of the EB estimates regardless of the structure of the panel crash data and the presence of the change in safety over time. Thus, it is highly recommended that the EB method be used in the study of traffic safety to obtain more reliable estimates for the expected crashes. In addition, this study corroborates that the estimation errors of the two estimates decrease as the analysis periods increase if safety does not change over time. Hence, it is also recommended that the 1-year analysis period used for identifying high risk sites in Korea be extended to produce more efficient estimates of the time-constant expected crashes.

Analysis of Confidence Interval of Design Wave Height Estimated Using a Finite Number of Data (한정된 자료로 추정한 설계파고의 신뢰구간 분석)

  • Jeong, Weon-Mu;Cho, Hong-Yeon;Kim, Gunwoo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
    • /
    • v.25 no.4
    • /
    • pp.191-199
    • /
    • 2013
  • It is estimated and analyzed that the design wave height and the confidence interval (hereafter CI) according to the return period using the fourteen-year wave data obtained at Pusan New Port. The functions used in the extreme value analysis are the Gumbel function, the Weibull function, and the Kernel function. The CI of the estimated wave heights was predicted using one of the Monte-Carlo simulation methods, the Bootstrap method. The analysis results of the estimated CI of the design wave height indicate that over 150 years of data is necessary in order to satisfy an approximately ${\pm}$10% CI. Also, estimating the number of practically possible data to be around 25~50, the allowable error was found to be approximately ${\pm}$16~22% for Type I PDF and ${\pm}$18~24% for Type III PDF. Whereas, the Kernel distribution method, a typical non-parametric method, shows that the CI of the method is below 40% in comparison with the CI of the other methods and the estimated design wave height is 1.2~1.6 m lower than that of the other methods.

The Experience on Intake Estimation and Internal Dose Assessment by Inhalation of Iodine-131 at Korean Nuclear Power Plants (국내 원전에서 $^{131}I$ 내부 흡입 에 따른 섭취량 산정과 내부피폭 방사선량 평가 경험 몇 개선방향에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Hee-Geun;Kong, Tae-Young
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
    • /
    • v.34 no.3
    • /
    • pp.129-136
    • /
    • 2009
  • During the maintenance period at Korean nuclear power plants, internal exposure of radiation workers occurred by the inhalation of $^{131}I$ released to the reactor building when primary system opened. The internal radioactivity of radiation workers contaminated by $^{131}I$ was measured using a whole body counter. Intake estimation and the calculation of committed effective dose were also conducted conforming to the guidance of internal dose assessments from publications of International Commission on Radiological Protection. Because the uptake and excretion of $^{131}I$ in a body occur quickly and $^{131}I$ is accumulated in the thyroid gland, the estimated intakes showed differences depending on the counting time after intake. In addition, since ICRP publications do not provide the intake retention fraction (IRF) for whole body of $^{131}I$, the IRF for thyroid was substitutionally used to calculate the intake and subsequently this caused more error in intake estimation. Thus, intake estimation and the calculation of committed effective dose were conducted by manual calculation. In this study, the IRF for whole body was also calculated newly and was verified. During this process, the estimated intake and committed effective dose were reviewed and compared using several computer codes for internal dosimetry.

Estimation of methane emissions from local and crossbreed beef cattle in Daklak province of Vietnam

  • Ramirez-Restrepo, Carlos Alberto;Van Tien, Dung;Le Duc, Ngoan;Herrero, Mario;Le Dinh, Phung;Van, Dung Dinh;Le Thi Hoa, Sen;Chi, Cuong Vu;Solano-Patino, Cesar;Lerner, Amy M.;Searchinger, Timothy D.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
    • /
    • v.30 no.7
    • /
    • pp.1054-1060
    • /
    • 2017
  • Objective: This study was aimed at evaluating effects of cattle breed resources and alternative mixed-feeding practices on meat productivity and emission intensities from household farming systems (HFS) in Daklak Province, Vietnam. Methods: Records from Local $Yellow{\time}Red$ Sindhi (Bos indicus; Lai Sind) and 1/2 Limousin, 1/2 Drought Master, and 1/2 Red Angus cattle during the growth (0 to 21 months) and fattening (22 to 25 months) periods were used to better understand variations on meat productivity and enteric methane emissions. Parameters were determined by the ruminant model. Four scenarios were developed: (HFS1) grazing from birth to slaughter on native grasses for approximately 10 h plus 1.5 kg dry matter/d (0.8% live weight [LW]) of a mixture of guinea grass (19%), cassava (43%) powder, cotton (23%) seed, and rice (15%) straw; (HFS2) growth period fed with elephant grass (1% of LW) plus supplementation (1.5% of LW) of rice bran (36%), maize (33%), and cassava (31%) meals; and HFS3 and HFS4 computed elephant grass, but concentrate supplementation reaching 2% and 1% of LW, respectively. Results: Results show that compared to HFS1, emissions ($72.3{\pm}0.96kg\;CH_4/animal/life$; least squares $means{\pm}standard$ error of the mean) were 15%, 6%, and 23% lower (p<0.01) for the HFS2, HFS3, and HFS4, respectively. The predicted methane efficiencies ($CO_2eq$) per kg of LW at slaughter ($4.3{\pm}0.15$), carcass weight ($8.8{\pm}0.25kg$) and kg of edible protein ($44.1{\pm}1.29$) were also lower (p<0.05) in the HFS4. In particular, irrespective of the HSF, feed supply and ratio changes had a more positive impact on emission intensities when crossbred 1/2 Red Angus cattle were fed than in their crossbred counterparts. Conclusion: Modest improvements on feeding practices and integrated modelling frameworks may offer potential trade-offs to respond to climate change in Vietnam.

A Study on the Estimation of Energy Expenditure and falls measurement system for the elderly (고령자를 위한 에너지 소비 추정 및 낙상 측정 시스템에 관한 연구)

  • Lim, Chae-Young;Jeon, Ki-Man;Ko, Kwang-Cheol;Koh, Kwang-Nak;Kim, Kyung-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
    • /
    • v.17 no.4
    • /
    • pp.1-9
    • /
    • 2012
  • As we are turnning into the aged society, accidents by falling down are increasing in the aged people's group. In this paper, we design the system with the 3-Axis acceleration sensor which is composed by a single chip. The body activity signal is measured with the signal detector and RF communicator in this proposed system and the and falling by the entering signal pattern analysis with 3-Axis acceleration sensor. For the RF communication, we are using nRF24L01p and 8bits ATmega uC for the processor. The error of energy expenditure estimation between motor driven treadmill and proposed a body activity module was 7.8% respectively. Human activities and falling is monitored according to analyze and judge the critical value of the Signal Vector. as falled down if they don't turn off the alarm after specific period and the aged person's after falling down activities are their position and more.

Establishing a Demand Forecast Model for Container Inventory in Liner Shipping Companies (정기선사의 컨테이너 재고 수요예측모델 구축에 대한 연구)

  • Jeon, Jun-woo;Jung, Kil-su;Gong, Jeong-min;Yeo, Gi-tae
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
    • /
    • v.32 no.4
    • /
    • pp.1-13
    • /
    • 2016
  • This study attempts to establish a precise forecast model for the container inventory demand of shipping companies through forecasts based on equipment type/size, ports, and weekly system dynamics. The forecast subjects were Shanghai and Yantian Ports. Only dry containers (20, 40) and high cubes (40) were used as the subject container inventory in this study due to their large demand and valid data computation. The simulation period was from 2011 to 2017 and weekly data were used, applying the actual data frequency among shipping companies. The results of the model accuracy test obtained through an application of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) verified that the forecast model for dry 40' demand, dry 40' high cube demand, dry 20' supply, dry 40' supply, and dry 40' high cube supply in Shanghai Port provided an accurate prediction, with $0%{\leq}MAPE{\leq}10%$. The forecast model for supply and demand in Shanghai Port was otherwise verified to have relatively high prediction power, with $10%{\leq}MAPE{\leq}20%$. The forecast model for dry 40' high cube demand and dry 20' supply in Yantian Port was accurate, with $0%{\leq}MAPE{\leq}10%$. The forecast model for supply and demand in Yantian Port was generally verified to have relatively high prediction power, with $10%{\leq}MAPE{\leq}20%$. The forecast model in this study also had relatively high accuracy when compared with the actueal data managed in shipping companies.

A Social Historical Study on Security System of Goryo Period (고려시대(高麗時代) 시위제도(侍衛制度)에 관한 사적고찰(史的考察))

  • Kim, Chang-Ho;Min, Jae-Ki
    • Korean Security Journal
    • /
    • no.15
    • /
    • pp.107-128
    • /
    • 2008
  • It was started that Shiwe-goon was organized from Shilla-end to Goryeo foundation a country in powerful families existence merely royal household by stably plan means in the reign of Taejo. Generally Shiwe-goon was dutie king' personal danger of protection. Shiwe-goon was organized castle of guarding, stand by king and royal household side armed strength to going on a trip and general armed-organization was collapsed for Goryeo-end continued existence. Goryeo era of Shiwe-organization was divided central army and region army. Two-goon(Eungyang-goon, Yongho-goon) was undertaken king of Shiwe army and six-we(Chunwoo-we, Geumoh-we, Gammoon-we, Jeoawoo-we, Shinoh-we, Hongwe-we) was undertaked capital of guard and the border of defense duty. Central army of commanders was called Sangjanggoon, Daejanggoon. Sangjanggoon and Daejanggoon was discussed military officer of conference apparatus in Jungbang. Jungbang was got afterward Mooshinjungbeon happened military of statesman grasping political power with authority a main stay. Mooshinjungkwen era was appeared modernistic mean of privately guarding organization in Dobang and Naedobang. According as Shiwe-organization was charged military organization as a part of sovereign power and grasping strength of authority- maintenance for security and guarding duty. As a conclusion, national sovereign of guard was achieved not only personal life and body guard protection but also country of welfare protection in country-welfare dimension an inch of non-error. Also national sovereign of guard was considered guarding apparatus of allowance the largest duty and country-welfare direct connection with actual fact recognition in constancy effort.

  • PDF

Digital simulation model for soil erosion and Sediment Yield from Small Agricultural Watersheds(I) (농업 소류역으로부터의 토양침식 및 유사량 시산을 위한 전산모의 모델 (I))

  • 권순국
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
    • /
    • v.22 no.4
    • /
    • pp.108-114
    • /
    • 1980
  • A deterministic conceptual erosion model which simulates detachment, entrainment, transport and deposition of eroded soil particles by rainfall impact and flowing water is presented. Both upland and channel phases of sediment yield are incorporated into the erosion model. The algorithms for the soil erosion and sedimentation processes including land and crop management effects are taken from the literature and then solved using a digital computer. The erosion model is used in conjunction with the modified Kentucky Watershed Model which simulates the hydrologic characteristics from watershed data. The two models are linked together by using the appropriate computer code. Calibrations for both the watershed and erosion model parameters are made by comparing the simulated results with actual field measurements in the Four Mile Creek watershed near Traer, Iowa using 1976 and 1977 water year data. Two water years, 1970 and 1978 are used as test years for model verification. There is good agreement between the mean daily simulated and recorded streamflow and between the simulated and recorded suspended sediment load except few partial differences. The following conclusions were drawn from the results after testing the watershed and erosion model. 1. The watershed and erosion model is a deterministic lumped parameter model, and is capable of simulating the daily mean streamflow and suspended sediment load within a 20 percent error, when the correct watershed and erosion parameters are supplied. 2. It is found that soil erosion is sensitive to errors in simulation of occurrence and intensity of precipitation and of overland flow. Therefore, representative precipitation data and a watershed model which provides an accurate simulation of soil moisture and resulting overland flow are essential for the accurate simulation of soil erosion and subsequent sediment transport prediction. 3. Erroneous prediction of snowmelt in terms of time and magnitute in conjunction with The frozen ground could be the reason for the poor simulation of streamflow as well as sediment yield in the snowmelt period. More elaborate and accurate snowmelt submodels will greatly improve accuracy. 4. Poor simulation results can be attributed to deficiencies in erosion model and to errors in the observed data such as the recorded daily streamflow and the sediment concentration. 5. Crop management and tillage operations are two major factors that have a great effect on soil erosion simulation. The erosion model attempts to evaluate the impact of crop management and tillage effects on sediment production. These effects on sediment yield appear to be somewhat equivalent to the effect of overland flow. 6. Application and testing of the watershed and erosion model on watersheds in a variety of regions with different soils and meteorological characteristics may be recommended to verify its general applicability and to detact the deficiencies of the model. Futhermore, by further modification and expansion with additional data, the watershed and erosion model developed through this study can be used as a planning tool for watershed management and for solving agricultural non-point pollution problems.

  • PDF