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http://dx.doi.org/10.9765/KSCOE.2013.25.4.191

Analysis of Confidence Interval of Design Wave Height Estimated Using a Finite Number of Data  

Jeong, Weon-Mu (Coastal Development & Ocean Energy Research Division, Korea Institute of Ocean Science & Technology)
Cho, Hong-Yeon (Marine Environments & Conservation Research Division, Korea Institute of Ocean Science & Technology)
Kim, Gunwoo (Department of Ocean Civil & Plant Construction Engineering, Mokpo National Maritime University)
Publication Information
Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers / v.25, no.4, 2013 , pp. 191-199 More about this Journal
Abstract
It is estimated and analyzed that the design wave height and the confidence interval (hereafter CI) according to the return period using the fourteen-year wave data obtained at Pusan New Port. The functions used in the extreme value analysis are the Gumbel function, the Weibull function, and the Kernel function. The CI of the estimated wave heights was predicted using one of the Monte-Carlo simulation methods, the Bootstrap method. The analysis results of the estimated CI of the design wave height indicate that over 150 years of data is necessary in order to satisfy an approximately ${\pm}$10% CI. Also, estimating the number of practically possible data to be around 25~50, the allowable error was found to be approximately ${\pm}$16~22% for Type I PDF and ${\pm}$18~24% for Type III PDF. Whereas, the Kernel distribution method, a typical non-parametric method, shows that the CI of the method is below 40% in comparison with the CI of the other methods and the estimated design wave height is 1.2~1.6 m lower than that of the other methods.
Keywords
Design wave height; extreme value analysis; confidence interval; Bootstrap method; Kernel function;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 3  (Citation Analysis)
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