We develop forecast models of daily probabilities of major flares (M- and X-class) based on empirical relationships between photospheric magnetic parameters and daily flaring rates from May 2010 to April 2018. In this study, we consider ten magnetic parameters characterizing size, distribution, and non-potentiality of vector magnetic fields from Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) X-ray flare data. The magnetic parameters are classified into three types: the total unsigned parameters, the total signed parameters, and the mean parameters. We divide the data into two sets chronologically: 70% for training and 30% for testing. The empirical relationships between the parameters and flaring rates are used to predict flare occurrence probabilities for a given magnetic parameter value. Major results of this study are as follows. First, major flare occurrence rates are well correlated with ten parameters having correlation coefficients above 0.85. Second, logarithmic values of flaring rates are well approximated by linear equations. Third, using total unsigned and signed parameters achieved better performance for predicting flares than the mean parameters in terms of verification measures of probabilistic and converted binary forecasts. We conclude that the total quantity of non-potentiality of magnetic fields is crucial for flare forecasting among the magnetic parameters considered in this study. When this model is applied for operational use, it can be used using the data of 21:00 TAI with a slight underestimation of 2-6.3%.
Abaye, Daniel A.;Aniagyei, Albert;Adedia, David;Nielsen, Birthe V.;Opoku, Francis
Mass Spectrometry Letters
/
v.13
no.3
/
pp.49-57
/
2022
During electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (ESI-MS) analysis of proteins, the addition of supercharging agents allows for adjusting the maximal charge state, affecting the charge state distribution, and increases the number of ions reaching the detector thus, improving signal detection. We postulate that in di-substituted arene isomers, molecules with higher polarizability values should generate greater interactions and hence elicit higher signal intensities. Polarizability is an electronic parameter which has been demonstrated to predict many chemical interactions. Many properties can be predicted based on charge polarization. Molecular polarizability is a vital descriptor for explaining intermolecular interactions. We employed DFT (density functional/Hartree-Fock hybrid model, B3LYP)-derived descriptors and computed molecular polarizability for ten disubstituted arene reagents, each set made up of three (ortho, meta, para) isomers, with reported use as supercharging reagents during ESI experiments. The atomic electronic inputs were ionization potential (IP), electron affinity (EA), electronegativity (𝛘), hardness (η), chemical potential (µ), and dipole moment (D). We determined that the para isomers showed the highest polarizability values in nine of the ten sets. There was no difference between the ortho and meta isomers. Polarizability also increased with increasing complexity of the substituents on the benzene ring. Polarizability correlated positively with IP, EA, 𝛘, η, and D but correlated negatively with chemical potential. This DFT study predicts that the para isomers of di-substituted arene isomers should elicit the strongest ESI responses. An experimental comparison of the three isomers, especially of larger supercharging molecules, could be carried out to establish this premise.
Sung-Min, Kim;Eun-Ji, Cha;Do-Hun, Kwon;Sung-Uk, Hong;Yeon-Joo, Lee;Seok-Jae, Lee;Kee-Ahn, Lee;Hwi-Jun, Kim
Journal of Powder Materials
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v.29
no.6
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pp.459-467
/
2022
Soft magnetic powder materials are used throughout industries such as motors and power converters. When manufacturing Fe-based soft magnetic composites, the size and shape of the soft magnetic powder and the microstructure in the powder are closely related to the magnetic properties. In this study, Fe-Si-Al-P alloy powders were manufactured using various manufacturing process parameter sets, and the process parameters of the vacuum induction melt gas atomization process were set as melt temperature, atomization gas pressure, and gas flow rate. Process variable data that records are converted into 6 types of data for each powder recovery section. Process variable data that recorded minute changes were converted into 6 types of data and used as input variables. As output variables, a total of 6 types were designated by measuring the particle size, flowability, apparent density, and sphericity of the manufactured powders according to the process variable conditions. The sensitivity of the input and output variables was analyzed through the Pearson correlation coefficient, and a total of 6 powder characteristics were analyzed by artificial neural network model. The prediction results were compared with the results through linear regression analysis and response surface methodology, respectively.
Ali Zar;Zahoor Hussain;Muhammad Akbar;Bassam A. Tayeh;Zhibin Lin
Smart Structures and Systems
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v.32
no.5
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pp.319-338
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2023
The study presents a new hybrid data-driven method by combining radial basis functions neural networks (RBF-NN) with the Jaya algorithm (JA) to provide effective structural health monitoring of arch dams. The novelty of this approach lies in that only one user-defined parameter is required and thus can increase its effectiveness and efficiency, as compared to other machine learning techniques that often require processing a large amount of training and testing model parameters and hyper-parameters, with high time-consuming. This approach seeks rapid damage detection in arch dams under dynamic conditions, to prevent potential disasters, by utilizing the RBF-NNN to seamlessly integrate the dynamic elastic modulus (DEM) and modal parameters (such as natural frequency and mode shape) as damage indicators. To determine the dynamic characteristics of the arch dam, the JA sequentially optimizes an objective function rooted in vibration-based data sets. Two case studies of hyperbolic concrete arch dams were carefully designed using finite element simulation to demonstrate the effectiveness of the RBF-NN model, in conjunction with the Jaya algorithm. The testing results demonstrated that the proposed methods could exhibit significant computational time-savings, while effectively detecting damage in arch dam structures with complex nonlinearities. Furthermore, despite training data contaminated with a high level of noise, the RBF-NN and JA fusion remained the robustness, with high accuracy.
CS is one of the major concerns of managers in the world because it is well known to be a key medium construct for firms' superior outcome. One of the major agents for CS management is retailers. Firms try to manage not only employees but also retailers to promote CS behaviors. And so diverse incentives are used to promote their CS behaviors under diverse channel setting such as multi-channel. However in spite of the rising needs there has been scarce studies on the optimal incentive structure for a manufacturer to offer competing retailers at the multi-channel. In this paper, we try to find better way for a manufacturer to promote the competing retailers' CS behaviors. We investigated how to promote the retailers' CS behavior via game-theoretic modeling. Especially, we focus on the possible incentive, CS bonus type reward introduced in the studies of Hauser, Simester, and Wernerfelt(1994) and Chu and Desai(1995). We build up a multi stage complete information game and derive a subgame perfect equilibrium using backward induction. Stages of the game are as following. (Stage 1) Manufacturer sets wholesale price(w) and CS bonus($\eta$). (Stage 2) Both retailers in competition set CS effort level($e_i$) and retail price($p_i$) simultaneously. (Stage 3) Consumers make purchasing decisions based on the manufacturer's initial reputation and retailers' CS efforts. Structure of the Model We investigated four issues about the topic as following: (1) How much total incentive is adequate for a firm of a specific level of reputation to promote retailers' CS behavior under multi-channel setting ?, (2) How much total incentive is adequate under diverse level of complimentary externalities between the retailers' CS efforts to promote retailers' CS behavior?, (3) How much total incentive is adequate under diverse level of cost to make CS efforts to promote retailers' CS behavior?, (4) How much total incentive is adequate under diverse level of competition between retailers to promote retailers' CS behavior? Our findings are as following. (1) The higher reputation has the manufacturer, the higher incentives for retailers at multi-channel are required in the equilibrium. shows the increasing pattern of optimal incentive level along the manufacturer's reputation level(a) under some parameter conditions(b=1/2;c=0;$\beta$=1/2). (2) The bigger complimentary externalities exists between the retailers' CS efforts, the higher incentives are required in the equilibrium. shows the increasing pattern of optimal incentive level along the complimentary externalities level($\beta$) under some parameter conditions(a=1;b=1/2;c=0). (3) The higher is the retailers' cost, the lower incentives are required in the equilibrium. shows the decreasing pattern of optimal incentive level along the cost level(c) under some parameter conditions(a=1;b=1/2;$\beta$=1/2). (4) The more competitive gets those two retailers, the higher incentives for retailers at multi-channel are required in the equilibrium. shows the increasing pattern of optimal incentive level along the competition level(b) under some parameter conditions(c=0;a=1;$\beta$=1/2). One of the major contribution points of this study is the fact that this study is the first to investigate the optimal CS incentive system under multi-channel setting.
Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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v.26
no.5
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pp.278-284
/
2014
Water temperature due to climate change can be estimated using the air temperature because the air and water temperatures are closely related and the water temperatures have been widely used as the indicators of the environmental and ecological changes. It is highly necessary to estimate the frequency distribution of the air and water temperatures, for the climate change derives the change of the coastal water temperatures. In this study, the distribution function of the air temperatures is estimated by using the long-term coastal air temperature data sets in Korea. The candidate distribution function is the bi-modal distribution function used in the previous studies, such as Cho et al.(2003) on tidal elevation data and Jeong et al.(2013) on the coastal water temperature data. The parameters of the function are optimally estimated based on the least square method. It shows that the optimal parameters are highly correlated to the basic statistical informations, such as mean, standard deviation, and skewness coefficient. The RMS error of the parameter estimation using statistical information ranges is about 5 %. In addition, the bimodal distribution fits good to the overall frequency pattern of the air temperature. However, it can be regarded as the limitations that the distribution shows some mismatch with the rapid decreasing pattern in the high-temperature region and the some small peaks.
Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
/
v.21
no.5
/
pp.163-169
/
2017
Although the strength of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) fibers which are generally used to make plastic bottles is low, the deformability of PET fibers is substantially high. Due to these material characteristics, a PET fiber can be used as a reliable strengthening material to resist a large deformation caused by earthquake and research pertinent to application of PET fibers is actively conducted in Japan. Therefore, in this study, experiments have been carried out to investigate the lateral confinement effect of PET fibers and to assess the applicability of PET fibers to construction fields by comparing the strengthening effect of PET fibers to that of carbon and glass fiber sheets. For this purpose, concrete cylinder specimens with parameters of different concrete strength and strengthening layers of carbon fiber sheets, glass fiber sheets, and PET fibers were respectively tested using two sets of cylinders for each parameter. As a result, specimens strengthened with carbon fiber sheets and glass fiber sheets failed due to sudden decrease of strength as with existing studies. However, specimens with PET fibers reached their maximum strength and then failed after gradual decrease strength without failure of PET fibers. In addition, although the strength of specimens with PET fibers did not significantly increase in comparison with that of specimens with carbon fiber sheets and glass fiber sheets, specimens with PET fibers indicated considerable deformability. Thus, a PET fiber can be considered as an effective strengthening material.
In this paper, I proposed a classifier of liver cirrhotic step using T1-weighted MRI(magnetic resonance imaging) and hierarchical neural network. The data sets for classification of each stage, which were normal, 1type, 2type and 3type, were obtained in Pusan National University Hospital from June 2001 to december 2001. And the number of data was 46. We extracted liver region and nodule region from T1-weighted MR liver image. Then objective interpretation classifier of liver cirrhotic steps in T1-weighted MR liver images. Liver cirrhosis classifier implemented using hierarchical neural network which gray-level analysis and texture feature descriptors to distinguish normal liver and 3 types of liver cirrhosis. Then proposed Neural network classifier teamed through error back-propagation algorithm. A classifying result shows that recognition rate of normal is 100%, 1type is 82.3%, 2type is 86.7%, 3type is 83.7%. The recognition ratio very high, when compared between the result of obtained quantified data to that of doctors decision data and neural network classifier value. If enough data is offered and other parameter is considered, this paper according to we expected that neural network as well as human experts and could be useful as clinical decision support tool for liver cirrhosis patients.
Proceedings of the Korean Society of Near Infrared Spectroscopy Conference
/
2001.06a
/
pp.1247-1247
/
2001
Constituents of animal biofluids such as milk, blood and urine contain information specifically related to metabolic and health status of the ruminant animals. Some changes in composition of biofluids can be attributed to disease response of the animals. Mastitis is a major problem for the global dairy industry and causes substantial economic losses from decreasing milk production and reducing milk quality. The purpose of this study was to investigate potential of NIRS combined with multivariate analysis for cow's mastitis diagnosis based on NIR spectra of milk, blood and urine. A total of 112 bulk milk, urine and blood samples from 4 Holstein cows were analyzed. The milk samples were collected from morning milking. The urine samples were collected before morning milking and stored at -35$^{\circ}C$ until spectral analysis. The blood samples were collected before morning milking using a catheter inserted into the carotid vein. Heparin was added to blood samples to prevent coagulation. All milk samples were analyzed for somatic cell count (SCC). The SCC content in milk was used as indicator of mastitis and as quantitative parameter for respective urine and blood samples collected at same time. NIR spectra of blood and milk samples were obtained by InfraAlyzer 500 spectrophotometer, using a transflectance mode. NIR spectra of urine samples were obtained by NIR System 6500 spectrophotometer, using 1 mm sample thickness. All samples were divided into calibration set and test set. Class variable was assigned for each sample as follow: healthy (class 1) and mastitic (class 2), based on milk SCC content. SIMCA was implemented to create models of the respective classes based on NIR spectra of milk, blood or urine. For the calibration set of samples, SIMCA models (model for samples from healthy cows and model for samples from mastitic cows), correctly classified from 97.33 to 98.67% of milk samples, from 97.33 to 98.61% of urine samples and from 96.00 to 94.67% of blood samples. From samples in the test set, the percent of correctly classified samples varied from 70.27 to 89.19, depending mainly on spectral data pretreatment. The best results for all data sets were obtained when first derivative spectral data pretreatment was used. The incorrect classified samples were 5 from milk samples,5 and 4 from urine and blood samples, respectively. The analysis of changes in the loading of first PC factor for group of samples from healthy cows and group of samples from mastitic cows showed, that separation between classes was indirect and based on influence of mastitis on the milk, blood and urine components. Results from the present investigation showed that the changes that occur when a cow gets mastitis influence her milk, urine and blood spectra in a specific way. SIMCA allowed extraction of available spectral information from the milk, urine and blood spectra connected with mastitis. The obtained results could be used for development of a new method for mastitis detection.
Kim, Yeon-Jung;Cho, In-Ky;Yong, Hwan-Ho;Song, Sung-Ho
Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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v.16
no.4
/
pp.217-224
/
2013
We developed a time-lapse inversion using new cross-model constraints based on change ratio and resolution of model parameters. The cross-model constraint based on change ratio imposes the same penalty on the model parameters with equal change ratio. This constraint can emphasize the model parameters with significant change regardless of their increase or decrease. The resolution cross-model constraint imposes a small penalty on the model parameters with poor resolution, but a large penalty on the model parameters with good resolution. Thus, the model parameter with poor resolution can be effectively identified in the inversion result if they are significantly changed with time. Through the numerical tests for 3D resistivity monitoring data sets, the performance of these two cross-model constraints was confirmed. Finally, for the safety estimation of a sea dyke, we applied the developed time-lapse inversion to the 3D resistivity monitoring data that were acquired at a sea dike located in western coastal area of Korea. The result of time-lapse inversion suggested that there were no significant changes at the sea dike during the monitoring period.
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