• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
• /
• v.22 no.49
• /
• pp.43-57
• /
• 1999

The recent trend is that risk management has more and more its importance. Neverthless, Korea's risk management is not developed. Even most banks does gap, duration in ALM for risk management, development and operation of VaR stressed at BIS have elementary level. In the case of Fallon and Pritsker, Marshall, gamma model is superior to delta model and Monte Carlo Simulation is improved at its result, as sample number is increased. And, nonparametric model is superior to parametric model. In the case of Korea's stock portfolio, VaR of Monte Carlo Simulation and Full Variance Covariance Model is less than that of Diagonal Model. The reason is that VaR of Full Variance Covariance Model is more precise than that of Diagonal Model. By the way, in the case of interest rate, result of monte carlo simulation is less than that of delta-gamma analysis on 95% confidence level. But, result of 99% is reversed. Therefore, result of which method is not dominated. It means two fact at forecast on volatility of stock and interest rate portfolio. First, in Delta-gamma method and Monte Carlo Simulation, assumption of distribution affects Value at Risk. Second, Value at Risk depends on test method. And, if option price is included, test results will have difference between the two. Therefore, If interest rate futures and option market is open, Korea's findings is supposed to like results of other advanced countries. And, every banks try to develop its internal model.

• Agribusiness and Information Management
• /
• v.4 no.1
• /
• pp.24-31
• /
• 2012

This case study investigates the KIKO currency option that has been a social issue in recent years among developing countries, especially Korea, where the financial derivatives market is in a state of rapid growth. The forward transaction which becomes a basis of derivatives is intended to hedge risks that may be caused by a future change in asset prices. Although it originates from a simple form of agricultural transactions, there currently exists a variety of derivatives in more sophisticated forms. In the Korean agricultural industry, the need to use such derivatives is great, as there is a huge risk of price fluctuation in agricultural products due to frequent adverse weather. In addition, many developing countries with export-led industrial structures similar to Korea's, of necessity must resort to currency hedging as a method of reducing relevant risk. However, in most cases, the lack of understanding about financial derivatives results in an inappropriate application of these derivatives. The KIKO in this study represents such cases. Since 2007, KIKO has been sold in Korea to many small- and medium-sized export companies for the purpose of currency hedging when the exchange rate between the Korean won and the U.S. dollar was in a downward spiral. The main focus of this study is a case which is most representative of KIKO. As inflation rapidly increased during the financial crisis in the U.S. at the end of 2007, derivatives became a hot issue in the courts rather than in the financial markets. This case study investigates what KIKO and the fierce legal debates over it imply, from the perspective of the option of value evaluation in order to suggest not only a direction in which companies can utilize financial derivatives, but also a roadmap for the future derivatives market.

• Proceedings of the Technology Innovation Conference
• /
• 2005.02a
• /
• pp.124-139
• /
• 2005

In the early stage, the radio communication industry was widely accepted as a monopoly industry, so it has been controled and managed by government. But the advanced technology in Information and Technology industry has led constant increase of demand and dramatic change of communication market. Furthermore it is expected that frequency resource is to be short by market change due to wire-wireless integration. That is why the effort to utilize and manage limited frequency resource efficiently is being executed around the world. Not only newly developing and allocating the spectrum but also reallocating the existing spectrum important are, since transforming inefficiently used existing spectrum to new service can increase producer's surplus and social welfare. The economic approach to valuate the spectrum and spectrum usage right is necessary different from the traditional cost based approach, and through this approach I expect active transaction of spectrum. In this paper the real option methodology is used for valuation of spectrum, considering spectrum user's option right based on future revenue. In detail, the matter of withdrawing and reallocating the existing analog radio broadcasting spectrum is evaluated in this paper, The digitalization of a broadcasting service is widely spreaded around the world in terms of technology and service utility, and analog TV broadcasting has already been decided to be transformed to digital TV broadcasting. It was planned to convert analog radio broadcasting to DAB service before adopting DMB service, but nowadays this issue is not on the table anymore. However if the increasing demand of digital voice and broadcasting service is considered, this kind of research to valuate a spectrum is needed urgently. The result of this research shows that when the redeployment of spectrum is done, social welfare will increases. The point of the reallocation time and value are suggested by the monte carlo simulation through ROVM. In this paper, I use real option to valuate the spectrum and provide the point of the reallocation time and reasonable guideline, and moreover, the suitable information of this paper is expected to reduce risk and loss in policy practice.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
• /
• v.12 no.3
• /
• pp.379-396
• /
• 2021

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to study the rational payoff from the standpoint of foreign investors and the government when the government issues GDP-linked bonds to foreign investors. Design/methodology/approach - In this paper, the prices of 12 types of GDP-linked bond structures, which are classified according to the calculation cycle of the rate of change of linked GDP, the currency issued, and whether options are embedded, were evaluated. The Fama-French 3-factor model and the GMM-SDF model are used in the asset pricing model, and domestic and overseas investors used different basis assets. Findings - The KRW premium for US investors is estimated to be 43bp on a quarterly basis and 30bp on an annual basis, respectively, meaning that when the government issues bonds in KRW, the interest rate paid to US investors will be reduced by 30bp to 160bp (annually converted). Using the Fama-French 3 factor model, the KRW premium is the risk premium for the US market beta, meaning that if US investors do not intend to invest in US market beta, it is advantageous to receive an additional interest rate by investing in USD-denominated GDP-linked bonds. Korea's GDP- linked bond give US investors diversified investment utility, so they are willing to incorporate Korean GDP-linked bonds even if -150bp of interest is deducted from the structure issued to Korean investors. And as a result of estimating the value of the option through the GDP-linked bond with options that provides a floor for guaranteeing the principal, the value of the option linked to the annual GDP issued in dollars was the lowest. Research implications or Originality - Issuing dollar-denominated GDP-linked bonds linked to annual GDP with the option of guaranteeing the principal by the government is a way to increase investment opportunities for US investors and achieve financial stability of the government.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
• /
• v.26 no.10
• /
• pp.1423-1431
• /
• 2022

Volatility is one of the variables that the Black-Scholes model requires for option pricing. It is an unknown variable at the present time, however, since the option price can be observed in the market, implied volatility can be derived from the price of an option at any given point in time and can represent the market's expectation of future volatility. Although volatility in the Black-Scholes model is constant, when calculating implied volatility, it is common to observe a volatility smile which shows that the implied volatility is different depending on the strike prices. We implement supervised learning to target implied volatility by adding V-KOSPI to ease volatility smile. We examine the estimation performance of KOSPI200 index options' implied volatility using various Machine Learning algorithms such as Linear Regression, Tree, Support Vector Machine, KNN and Deep Neural Network. The training accuracy was the highest(99.9%) in Decision Tree model and test accuracy was the highest(96.9%) in Random Forest model.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
• /
• v.8 no.1
• /
• pp.199-212
• /
• 1991

주식옵션(stock options)에 대한 연구에 비교하여 상품 및 퓨처 옵션(commodity & futures options)에 대한 연구는 선진국에서도 지금 한참 연구를 하고 있는 단계에 있다. 우리나라에서도 이 분야에 대한 이론을 바탕으로 하는 제도를 곧 도입하려는 준비를 하고 있다. 본 연구는 블랙의 '블랙의 컴모디티 옵션의 가격모형(Black commodity option pricing model)'을 이용하여 재무성 장기채권의 퓨처의 균형가격을 예측하는데 있다. 이 블랙모형의 적용가능성을 검증해 본 것이다. 실제퓨처가격(observed futures prices)과는 달리 재무성 장기채권 퓨처 옵션에서의 묵시적 퓨처가격(futures prices implicit)은 시장효율성(market efficiencies)의 전제하에 성립되거나, 아니면 옵션가격모형을 사용하여서는 아니되거나 둘 중의 하나이거나 둘 다 섞이거나 일 것이다. 본 실증적인 연구, 즉 묵시적인 표준편차(implied standard deviations)를 사이멀테니어스(simultaneously)하게 계산한 묵시적인 퓨처가격(implied futures prices)을 사용한 실증적인 연구는 옵션모델에 의하여 퓨처가격을 계산하는 데에 문제가 있음을 발견하였다. 그 이유는 옵션가격결정모형을 이용하여 계산한 재무성 장기채권의 퓨쳐가격은 재무성 장기채권의 미래가격변동의 방향을 제시하는 지표로써 사용할 수 없기 때문일 것이다. 우리나라에서도 이 분야에 대한 이론과 제도를 곧 도입하는 입장에서 선행되는 문헌이 될 것이다.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.25 no.5
• /
• pp.757-773
• /
• 2012

Traditional value at risk(S-VaR) has a difficulity in predicting the future risk of financial asset prices since S-VaR is a backward looking measure based on the historical data of the underlying asset prices. In order to resolve the deficiency of S-VaR, an economic value at risk(E-VaR) using the risk neutral probability distributions is suggested since E-VaR is a forward looking measure based on the option price data. In this study E-VaR is estimated by assuming the generalized gamma distribution(GGD) as risk neutral density function which is implied in the option. The estimated E-VaR with GGD was compared with E-VaR estimates under the Black-Scholes model, two-lognormal mixture distribution, generalized extreme value distribution and S-VaR estimates under the normal distribution and GARCH(1, 1) model, respectively. The option market data of the KOSPI 200 index are used in order to compare the performances of the above VaR estimates. The results of the empirical analysis show that GGD seems to have a tendency to estimate VaR conservatively; however, GGD is superior to other models in the overall sense.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
• /
• 2013.01a
• /
• pp.107-110
• /
• 2013

Recently, Korea parliament legislated the Low Carbon Green Growth Act (April, 2012) and approved a bill (May, 2012) to start carbon emission trading system in 2015. It means that for the first time, government would regulate the amounts of carbon emission in private entities, and private entities should attain predefined emission reduction goals by implementing clean development mechanism (CDM) project or buy the Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) from the trading market to avoid penalty. Under these circumstances, it is not easy for them to determine when or how to implement the CDM project because the governmental energy policies about the level of governmental subsidies, periods for free emission allocation, etc. are still under discussion and the future price of the CERs is quite uncertain. Thus, this study presents a real-option based model to assess the financial viability of the CDM project which switches bunker-C oil to liquefied natural gas (LNG). The proposed model is expected to assist private entities in establishing the investment strategy for CDM project under uncertain government energy policies.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
• /
• v.22 no.3
• /
• pp.1-18
• /
• 2015

Financial markets are characterized by large numbers of complex and interacting factors which are ill-understood and frequently difficult to measure. Mathematical models developed in finance are precise formulations of theories of how these factors interact to produce the market value of financial asset. While these models are quite good at predicting these market values, because these forces and their interactions are not precisely understood, the model value nevertheless deviates to some extent from the observable market value. In this paper we propose a framework for augmenting the predictive capabilities of mathematical model with a learning component which is primed with an initial set of historical data and then adjusts its behavior after the event of prediction.

• STI Policy Review
• /
• v.2 no.3
• /
• pp.35-44
• /
• 2011

Korea has rapidly increased R&D investment over the last few decades and the intensity of R&D investment is among the highest in the world; however, there are serious concerns about R&D performance and R&D efficiency. This study is to improve the economic assessment methodology regarding a feasibility study for national R&D programs that are thought to be one of the most prominent ways to enhance R&D efficiency. In order to improve the methodology of economic assessment, a few of important factors such as technical or market uncertainty, spillover effect, and R&D contribution ratio should be covered in the model. The focus of this article is technological and market uncertainty that has a close relation with strategic flexibility and utilization potential to increase the value of R&D programs. To improve the current linear and definitive R&D process, a new framework with strategic flexibility is suggested, in which the result of economic assessment that considers technological and market uncertainty is reflected in planning. That kind of feedback process is expected to enhance the value of the program/project as well as R&D efficiency.