• Title/Summary/Keyword: numerical weather prediction model

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A Simple Simulation of Parabola-Shaped Clouds in the Lee of a Low Bell-Shaped Mountain Using the ARPS

  • Lee, Seung-Jae;Lee, Hwa-Woon;Kang, Sung-Dae
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.16 no.5
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    • pp.541-548
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    • 2007
  • A three-dimensional linear model and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) were used to simulate parabola-shaped disturbances and clouds in the lee of a bell-shaped mountain. The ARPS model was compared in the x-y plane against the linear model's analytic solution. Under similar conditions with the linear theory, the ARPS produced well-developed parabola-shaped mountain disturbances and confirmed the features are accounted for in the linear regime. A parabola-shaped cloud in the lee of an isolated bell-shaped mountain was successfully simulated in the ARPS after 6 hours of integration time with the prescribed initial and boundary conditions, as well as a microphysical scheme.

A Verification of threshold of the aircraft turbulence index and icing index using PIREPs and KWRF on Korean peninsula (PIREP과 KWRF를 활용한 한반도 난류, 착빙 지수의 임계값 설정 및 검증)

  • Kim, Young-Chul
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.54-60
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    • 2011
  • The purpose of this study is verification of threshold of the aircraft turbulence index and icing index using PIREPs and KWRF on Korean peninsula, to operational weather support. There is improvement in new threshold value made of the pilot weather report data and the turbulence and icing index from KWRF model result, using the ROC Diagram method. the accuracy is up to 0.6 compared with the precedent study result 0.5. Through this study, It is founded on the research and development of the Korean peninsula aircraft turbulence and icing.

A Study on Sensitivity of Heavy Precipitation to Domain Size with a Regional Numerical Weather Prediction Model (지역예측모델 영역 크기에 따른 집중호우 수치모의 민감도 실험)

  • Min, Jae-Sik;Roh, Joon-Woo;Jee, Joon-Bum;Kim, Sangil
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.85-95
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    • 2016
  • In this study, we investigated the variabilities of wind speed of 850 hPa and precipitable water over the East Asia region using the NCEP Final Analysis data from December 2001 to November 2011. A large variance of wind speed was observed in northern and eastern China during the winter period. During summer, the regions of the East China Sea, the South Sea of Japan and the East Sea show large variances in the wind speed caused by an extended North Pacific High and typhoon activities. The large variances in the wind speed in the regions are shown to be correlated with the inter-annual variability of precipitable water over the inland region of windward side of the Korean Peninsula. Based on the investigation, sensitivity tests to the domain size were performed using the WRF model version 3.6 for heavy precipitation events over the Korean Peninsula for 26 and 27 July 2011. Numerical experiments of different domain sizes were set up with 5 km horizontal and 50 levels vertical resolutions for the control and the first experimental run, and 9 km horizontal for the second experimental run. We found that the major rainfalls correspond to shortwave troughs with baroclinic structure over Northeast China and extended North Pacific High. The correlation analysis between the observation and experiments for 1-h precipitation indicated that the second experiment with the largest domain had the best performance with the correlation coefficient of 0.79 due to the synoptic-scale systems such as short-wave troughs and North Pacific High.

Numerical forecasting of sea fog at West sea in spring (봄철 서해안 해무의 수치예보)

  • Han, Kyoung-Keun;Kim, Young-Chul
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.94-100
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    • 2006
  • The purpose of this case study is to determine the possibility of Numerical Forecasting of sea fog at West Sea in spring time. For practical method of analyzing the data collected from 24th to 26th March 2003, Numerical Weather Prediction model MM5(Mesoscale Model Version 5) and synoptic field study using synoptic chart, upper level chart, and sea surface temperature were employed. The results of synoptic field analysis summarized that sea fog at West sea in spring is intensified by the inflow of the warm flow from west or southwest, low sea surface temperature to increase the temperature difference between air and sea surface, and inversion layer to disturb the disperse. It appears that the possibility of sea fog forecasting by MM5, in view of the result that the MM5 output is similar to the synoptic fields analysis.

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A Study of the Characteristics of Input Boundary Conditions for the Prediction of Urban Air Flow based on Fluid Dynamics (유체 역학 기반 도시 기류장 예측을 위한 입력 경계 바람장 특성 연구)

  • Lee, Tae-Jin;Lee, Soon-Hwan;Lee, Hwawoon
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.25 no.7
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    • pp.1017-1028
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    • 2016
  • Wind information is one of the major inputs for the prediction of urban air flow using computational fluid dynamic (CFD) models. Therefore, the numerical characteristics of the wind data formed at their mother domains should be clarified to predict the urban air flow more precisely. In this study, the formation characteristics of the wind data in the Seoul region were used as the inlet wind information for a CFD based simulation and were analyzed using numerical weather prediction models for weather research and forecasting (WRF). Because air flow over the central part of the Korean peninsula is often controlled not only by synoptic scale westerly winds but also by the westerly sea breeze induced from the Yellow Sea, the westerly wind often dominates the entire Seoul region. Although simulations of wind speed and air temperature gave results that were slightly high and low, respectively, their temporal variation patterns agreed well with the observations. In the analysis of the vertical cross section, the variation of wind speed along the western boundary of Seoul is simpler in a large domain with the highest horizontal resolution as compared to a small domain with the same resolution. A strong convergence of the sea breeze due to precise topography leads to the simplification of the wind pattern. The same tendency was shown in the average vertical profiles of the wind speed. The difference in the simulated wind pattern of two different domains is greater during the night than in the daytime because of atmospheric stability and topographically induced mesoscale forcing.

Verification of the Validity of WRF Model for Wind Resource Assessment in Wind Farm Pre-feasibility Studies (풍력단지개발 예비타당성 평가를 위한 모델의 WRF 풍황자원 예측 정확도 검증)

  • Her, Sooyoung;Kim, Bum Suk;Huh, Jong Chul
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.39 no.9
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    • pp.735-742
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    • 2015
  • In this paper, we compare and verify the prediction accuracy and feasibility for wind resources on a wind farm using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is a numerical weather-prediction model. This model is not only able to simulate local weather phenomena, but also does not require automatic weather station (AWS), satellite, or meteorological mast data. To verify the feasibility of WRF to predict the wind resources required from a wind farm pre-feasibility study, we compare and verify measured wind data and the results predicted by WAsP. To do this, we use the Pyeongdae and Udo sites, which are located on the northeastern part of Jeju island. Together with the measured data, we use the results of annual and monthly mean wind speed, the Weibull distribution, the annual energy production (AEP), and a wind rose. The WRF results are shown to have a higher accuracy than the WAsP results. We therefore confirmed that WRF wind resources can be used in wind farm pre-feasibility studies.

Heavy Rainfall prediction using convective instability index (대류성 불안정 지수를 이용한 집중호우 예측)

  • Kim, Young-Chul;Ham, Sook-Jung
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.17-23
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this study is possibility of the heavy rainfall prediction using instability index. The convective instability index using this study is Convective Available Potential Energy(CAPE) concerned the growth energy of the storm, Bulk Richardson Number(BRN) concerned the type and strength of the storm, and Sotrm Relative Helicity(SRH) concerned maintenance of the storm. To verify the instability index, the simulation of heavy rainfall case experiment by Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP) model(MM5) are designed. The results of this study summarized that the heavy rainfall related to the high instability index and the proper combination of one more instability index made the higher heavy rainfall prediction.

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Construction and Case Analysis of Detailed Urban Characteristic Information on Seoul Metropolitan Area for High-Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction Model (고해상도 수치예보모델을 위한 수도권지역의 상세한 도시특성정보 구축 및 사례 분석)

  • Lee, Hankyung;Jee, Joon-Bum;Yi, Chaeyeon;Min, Jae-Sik
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.567-583
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    • 2019
  • In this study, the high-resolution numerical simulations considering detailed anthropogenic heat, albedo, emission and roughness length are analyzed by using single layer Urban Canopy Model (UCM) in Weather Research Forecast (WRF). For this, improved urban parameter data for Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA) was collected from global data. And then the parameters were applied to WRF-UCM model after it was processed into 2-dimensional topographical data. The 6 experiments were simulated by using the model with each parameter and verified against observation from Automated Weather Station (AWS) and flux tower for the temperature and sensible heat flux. The data for sensible heat flux of flux towers on Jungnang and Bucheon, the temperature of AWS on Jungnang, Gangnam, Bucheon and Neonggok were used as verification data. In the case of summer, the improvement of simulation by using detailed anthropogenic heat was higher than the other experiments in sensible flux simulation. The results of winter case show improved in all simulations using each advanced parameters in temperature and sensible heat flux simulation. Improvement of urban parameters in this study are possible to reflect the heat characteristics of urban area. Especially, detailed application of anthropogenic heat contributed to the enhancement of predicted value for sensible heat flux and temperature.

Development of Marine Casualty Forecasting System (I): Marine Casualty Numerical D/B Construction (해양사고 예보 시스템 개발(I): 해양사고 수량화 D/B 구축)

  • 임정빈;허용범;김창경
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2003.05a
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    • pp.51-59
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    • 2003
  • Marine Casualty Forecasting System (MCFS) is to broadcast the prediction number and risk level of marine casualties as like daily weather forecasting. The MCFS consists of marine casualty numerical D/B, prediction model and, three-dimensional statistics visualization system. The implementation procedure for the numerical D/B is described in the paper. The data relating to a total of 724 ship casualties in the west-southern sea area (latitude 33$^{\circ}$N∼35$^{\circ}$ and longitude 124$^{\circ}$E∼127$^{\circ}$E) of Korean peninsula for 11 years (1999∼2000) have been compiled. The analysis method of numerical D/B is proposed and discussed its usability.

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A Simulation of Agro-Climate Index over the Korean Peninsula Using Dynamical Downscaling with a Numerical Weather Prediction Model (수치예보모형을 이용한 역학적 규모축소 기법을 통한 농업기후지수 모사)

  • Ahn, Joong-Bae;Hur, Ji-Na;Shim, Kyo-Moon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2010
  • A regional climate model (RCM) can be a powerful tool to enhance spatial resolution of climate and weather information (IPCC, 2001). In this study we conducted dynamical downscaling using Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) as a RCM in order to obtain high resolution regional agroclimate indices over the Korean Peninsula. For the purpose of obtaining detailed high resolution agroclimate indices, we first reproduced regional weather for the period of March to June, 2002-2008 with dynamic downscaling method under given lateral boundary conditions from NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis data. Normally, numerical model results have shown biases against observational results due to the uncertainties in the modelis initial conditions, physical parameterizations and our physical understanding on nature. Hence in this study, by employing a statistical method, the systematic bias in the modelis results was estimated and corrected for better reproduction of climate on high resolution. As a result of the correction, the systematic bias of the model was properly corrected and the overall spatial patterns in the simulation were well reproduced, resulting in more fine-resolution climatic structures. Based on these results, the fine-resolution agro-climate indices were estimated and presented. Compared with the indices derived from observation, the simulated indices reproduced the major and detailed spatial distributions. Our research shows a possibility to simulate regional climate on high resolution and agro-climate indices by using a proper downscaling method with a dynamical weather forecast model and a statistical correction method to minimize the model bias.