• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.29 no.4
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• pp.741-752
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• 2016

Numerous studies have shown that normal inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution adequately fits the empirical return distribution of financial securities. The estimation of parameters can also be done relatively easily, which makes the NIG distribution more useful in financial markets. The maximum likelihood estimation and the method of moments estimation are easy to implement; however, we may encounter a problem in practice when a relationship among the moments is violated. In this paper, we investigate this problem in the parameter estimation and try to find a simple solution through simulations. We examine the effect of our adjusted estimation method with real data: daily log returns of KOSPI, S&P500, FTSE and HANG SENG. We also checked the performance of our method by computing the value at risk of daily log return data. The results show that our method improves the stability of parameter estimation, while it retains a comparable performance in goodness-of-fit.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.37-47
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• 2013

A Q-Q plot is an effective and convenient graphical method to assess a distributional assumption of data. The primary step in the construction of a Q-Q plot is to obtain a closed-form expression to represent the relation between observed quantiles and theoretical quantiles to be plotted in order that the points fall near the line y = a + bx. In this paper, we introduce a Q-Q plot to assess goodness-of-fit for inverse Gaussian distribution. The procedure is based on the distributional result that a transformed random variable $Y={\mid}\sqrt{\lambda}(X-{\mu})/{\mu}\sqrt{X}{\mid}$ follows a half-normal distribution with mean 0 and variance 1 when a random variable X has an inverse Gaussian distribution with location parameter ${\mu}$ and scale parameter ${\lambda}$. Simulations are performed to provide a guideline to interpret the pattern of points on the proposed inverse Gaussian Q-Q plot. An illustrative example is provided to show the usefulness of the inverse Gaussian Q-Q plot.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.243-257
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• 2017

In this paper, we compare several methods to approximate option prices: Edgeworth expansion, A-type and C-type Gram-Charlier expansions, a method using normal inverse gaussian (NIG) distribution, and an asymptotic method using nonlinear regression. We used two different types of approximation. The first (called the RNM method) approximates the risk neutral probability density function of the log return of the underlying asset and computes the option price. The second (called the OPTIM method) finds the approximate option pricing formula and then estimates parameters to compute the option price. For simulation experiments, we generated underlying asset data from the Heston model and NIG model, a well-known stochastic volatility model and a well-known Levy model, respectively. We also applied the above approximating methods to the KOSPI200 call option price as a real data application. We then found that the OPTIM method shows better performance on average than the RNM method. Among the OPTIM, A-type Gram-Charlier expansion and the asymptotic method that uses nonlinear regression showed relatively better performance; in addition, among RNM, the method of using NIG distribution was relatively better than others.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.181-192
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• 2016

We consider several methods to approximate option prices with correction terms to the Black-Scholes option price. These methods are able to compute option prices from various risk-neutral distributions using relatively small data and simple computation. In this paper, we compare the performance of Edgeworth expansion, A-type and C-type Gram-Charlier expansions, a method of using Normal inverse gaussian distribution, and an asymptotic method of using nonlinear regression through simulation experiments and real KOSPI200 option data. We assume the variance gamma model in the simulation experiment, which has a closed-form solution for the option price among the pure jump $L{\acute{e}}vy$ processes. As a result, we found that methods to approximate an option price directly from the approximate price formula are better than methods to approximate option prices through the approximate risk-neutral density function. The method to approximate option prices by nonlinear regression showed relatively better performance among those compared.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.483-494
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• 2013

The importance of financial risk management has been highlighted after several recent incidences of global financial crisis. One of the issues in financial risk management is how to measure the risk; currently, the most widely used risk measure is the Value at Risk(VaR). We can consider to estimate VaR using extreme value theory if the financial data have heavy tails as the recent market trend. In this paper, we study estimations of VaR using Peaks over Threshold(POT), which is a common method of modeling fat-tailed data using extreme value theory. To use POT, we first estimate parameters of the Generalized Pareto Distribution(GPD). Here, we compare three different methods of estimating parameters of GPD by comparing the performance of the estimated VaR based on KOSPI 5 minute-data. In addition, we simulate data from normal inverse Gaussian distributions and examine two parameter estimation methods of GPD. We find that the recent methods of parameter estimation of GPD work better than the maximum likelihood estimation when the kurtosis of the return distribution of KOSPI is very high and the simulation experiment shows similar results.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.25-46
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• 2020

This paper presents ordinal probit semiparametric regression models using Bayesian Spectral Analysis Regression (BSAR) method. Ordinal probit regression is a way of modeling ordinal responses - usually more than two categories - by connecting the probability of falling into each category explained by a combination of available covariates using a probit (an inverse function of normal cumulative distribution function) link. The Bayesian probit model facilitates posterior sampling by bringing a latent variable following normal distribution, therefore, the responses are categorized by the cut-off points according to values of latent variables. In this paper, we extend the latent variable approach to a semiparametric model for the Bayesian ordinal probit regression with nonparametric functions using a spectral representation of Gaussian processes based BSAR method. The latent variable is decomposed into a parametric component and a nonparametric component with or without a shape constraint for modeling ordinal responses and predicting outcomes more flexibly. We illustrate the proposed methods with simulation studies in comparison with existing methods and real data analysis applied to a Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) 2016 for investigating nonparametric relationship between smoking behavior and coffee intake.