• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.319-331
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• 2011

In this paper, we propose automatic procedures for the model selection of various univariate time series data. Automatic model selection is important, especially in data mining with large number of time series, for example, the number (in thousands) of signals accessing a web server during a specific time period. Several methods have been proposed for automatic model selection of time series. However, most existing methods focus on linear time series models such as exponential smoothing and autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models. The key feature that distinguishes the proposed procedures from previous approaches is that the former can be used for both linear time series models and nonlinear time series models such as threshold autoregressive(TAR) models and autoregressive moving average-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity(ARMA-GARCH) models. The proposed methods select a model from among the various models in the prediction error sense. We also provide an R package autots that implements the proposed automatic model selection procedures. In this paper, we illustrate these algorithms with the artificial and real data, and describe the implementation of the autots package for R.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.23 no.6
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• pp.1045-1054
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• 2012

Support vector machine is known to be the very useful statistical method in classification and nonlinear function estimation. In this paper we propose a monotone support vector regression (SVR) for the estimation of monotonically decreasing function. The proposed monotone SVR is applied to smooth the Kaplan-Meier estimate of survival function. Experimental results are then presented which indicate the performance of the proposed monotone SVR using survival functions obtained by exponential distribution.

• Interaction and multiscale mechanics
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.237-255
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• 2013

In this paper, a meshfree-enriched finite element method (ME-FEM) is introduced for the large deformation analysis of nonlinear path-dependent problems involving contact. In linear ME-FEM, the element formulation is established by introducing a meshfree convex approximation into the linear triangular element in 2D and linear tetrahedron element in 3D along with an enriched meshfree node. In nonlinear formulation, the area-weighted smoothing scheme for deformation gradient is then developed in conjunction with the meshfree-enriched element interpolation functions to yield a discrete divergence-free property at the integration points, which is essential to enhance the stress calculation in the stage of plastic deformation. A modified variational formulation using the smoothed deformation gradient is developed for path-dependent material analysis. In the industrial metal forming problems, the mortar contact algorithm is implemented in the explicit formulation. Since the meshfree-enriched element shape functions are constructed using the meshfree convex approximation, they pose the desired Kronecker-delta property at the element edge thus requires no special treatments in the enforcement of essential boundary condition as well as the contact conditions. As a result, this approach can be easily incorporated into a conventional displacement-based finite element code. Two elasto-plastic problems are studied and the numerical results indicated that ME-FEM is capable of delivering a volumetric locking-free and pressure oscillation-free solutions for the large deformation problems in metal forming analysis.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.40 no.1 s.174
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• pp.89-99
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• 2007

Uncertainty analysis is used to eliminate the climatic variables of input nodes and construct the model of an optimal type from COMBINE-GRNNM-GA(Type-1), which have been developed in this issue(2007). The input variable which has the lowest smoothing factor during the training performance, is eliminated from the original COMBINE-GRNNM-GA (Type-1). And, the modified COMBINE-GRNNM-GA(Type-1) is retrained to find the new and lowest smoothing factor of the each climatic variable. The input variable which has the lowest smoothing factor, implies the least useful climatic variable for the model output. Furthermore, The sensitive and insensitive climatic variables are chosen from the uncertainty analysis of the input nodes. The optimal COMBINE-GRNNM-GA(Type-1) is developed to estimate and calculate the PE which is missed or ungaged and the $ET_r$ which is not measured with the least cost and endeavor Finally, the PE and $ET_r$. maps can be constructed to give the reference data for drought and irrigation and drainage networks system analysis using the optimal COMBINE-GRNNM-GA(Type-1) in South Korea.

• Transactions of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering
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• v.16 no.3 s.108
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• pp.255-262
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• 2006

Frequency spectrum using the conventional Fourier analysis gives adequate information about the dynamic characteristics of the slider air bearing for the linear and stationary cases. The intermittent contacts for the extremely low flying height, however, generate nonlinear and nonstationary vibration at the instant of contact. Nonlinear dynamic model should be developed to simulate the impulse response of the air bearing during slider-disk contact. Time-frequency analysis is widely used to investigate the nonstationary signal. Several time-frequency analysis methods are employed and compared for the slider vibration signal caused by the impact against an artificially induced scratch on the disk. The representative Wigner-Ville distribution leads to the severe interference problem by cross terms even though it gives good resolution both in time and frequency. The smoothing process improves the interference problem at the expense of resolution. In order to get the results with good resolution and little interference, the reassignment method is proposed. Among others the reassigned Gabor spectrogram shows the best resolution and readability with negligible interference.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.85-92
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• 1976

In this paper, the employment planning model is developed which is a decision-making model for determining the optimum employment level with respect to varying net manpower requirement for each planing period such that total cost in a planning horizon is minimized. It is constructed as a nonlinear programming model and a dynamic programming model on the basis of studies in the areas of production smoothing and manpower scheduling. Costs for a planning period are categorized into regular wage cost, hiring cost, and overtime cost. The first is a linear function. The other two cost functions are of quadratic nature. The planning horizon of this planning model is intermediate range (five years) for which a fair planning accuracy can be guaranteed. The model considers learning period for each job class. It is simple and an optimum solution can be easily obtained by direct search techniques.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.91-106
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• 1994

In mixed model assembly lines, products are assembled seqeuntially that have different combination of options specified by customers. In just in time (JIT) environment, production smoothing becomes an important issue for sub-lines which supply the necessary parts to each workstation of the assembly line. Another important issue is to avoid line stopping caused by work overload in workstations. To find a sequence which minimizes the costs associated with line stoppage and the option parts inventory level, a nonlinear mixed integer programming is formulated. Recognizing the limit of the Branch and Bound technique in large sized problems, a heuristic solution procedure is proposed. The performance of the heuristic is compared with the Branch and Bound technique through randomly generated test problems. The computational results indicate that on the average the heuristic solutions deviate approximately 3.6% from the optimal solutions.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Studies
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• v.3 no.2
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• pp.267-279
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• 1996

The prediction of future demand is a vital task in managing business operations. To this end, traditional approaches often focused on statistical techniques such as exponential smoothing and moving average. The need for better accuracy has led to nonlinear techniques such as neural networks and case based reasoning. In addition, experimental design techniques such as orthogonal arrays may be used to assist in the formulation of an effective methodology. This paper investigates a multistrategy approach involving neural nets, case based reasoning, and orthogonal arrays. Neural nets and case based reasoning are employed both separately and in combination, while orthoarrays are used to determine the best architecture for each approach. The comparative evaluation is performed in the context of an application relating to the prediction of Treasury notes.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.9-13
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• 2004

Railway passenger demand forecasts may be used directly, or as inputs to other optimization models use them to produce estimates of other activities. The optimization models require demand forecasts at the most detailed level. In this environment exponential smoothing forecasting methods such as Holt-Winters are appropriate because it is simple and inexpensive in terms of computation. There are several initialization methods for Holt-Winters Model. The purpose of this paper is to compare the initialization methods for Holt-Winters model.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.75-93
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• 2013

In applying Markowitz's portfolio selection model to the stock market, we developed a comprehensive investment decision-making framework including key inputs for portfolio theory (i.e., individual stocks' expected rate of return and covariance) and minimum required expected return. For estimating the key inputs of our decision-making framework, we utilized an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) which places more emphasis on recent data than the conventional simple moving average (SMA). We empirically analyzed the investment results of the decision-making framework with the same 15 stocks in Samsung Group Funds found in the Korean stock market between 2007 and 2011. This five-year investment horizon is marked by global financial crises including the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, the collapse of Lehman Brothers, and the European sovereign-debt crisis. We measure portfolio performance in terms of rate of return, standard deviation of returns, and Sharpe ratio. Results are compared with the following benchmarks : 1) KOSPI, 2) Samsung Group Funds, 3) Talmudic portfolio based on the na$\ddot{i}$ve 1/N rule, and 4) Markowitz's model with SMA. We performed sensitivity analyses on all the input parameters that are necessary for designing an investment decision-making framework : smoothing constant for EWMA, minimum required expected return for the portfolio, and portfolio rebalancing period. In conclusion, appropriate use of the comprehensive investment decision-making framework based on the Markowitz's model integrated with EWMA proves to achieve outstanding performance compared to the benchmarks.