• 한국환경보건학회지
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• 제41권6호
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• pp.425-437
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• 2015

Objectives: Risk assessment is a tool for predicting and reducing uncertainty related to the effects of future activities. Probability approaches are the main elements in risk assessment, but confusion about the interpretation and use of assessment factors often undermines the message of the analyses. The aim of this study is to provide a guideline for systematic reduction plans regarding uncertainty in risk assessment. Methods: Articles and reports were collected online using the key words "uncertainty analysis" on risk assessment. Uncertainty analysis was conducted based on reports focusing on procedures for analysis methods by the World Health Organization (WHO) and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). In addition, case studies were performed in order to verify suggested methods qualitatively and quantitatively with exposure data, including measured data on toluene and styrene in residential spaces and multi-use facilities. Results: Based on an analysis of the data on uncertainty, three major factors including scenario, model, and parameters were identified as the main sources of uncertainty, and tiered approaches were determined. In the case study, the risk of toluene and styrene was evaluated and the most influential factors were also determined. Five reduction plans were presented: providing standard guidelines, using reliable exposure factors, possessing quality controls for analysis and scientific expertise, and introducing a peer review system. Conclusion: In this study, we established a method for reducing uncertainty by taking into account the major factors. Also, we showed a method for uncertainty analysis with tiered approaches. However, uncertainties are difficult to define because they are generated by many factors. Therefore, further studies are needed for the development of technical guidelines based on the representative scenario, model, and parameters developed in this study.

• 전자공학회논문지
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• 제50권6호
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• pp.276-286
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• 2013

Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) 기반의 디콘볼루션 방식은 CT 관류 영상 해석에서 가장 널리 사용되는 기법이다. 이 방식에서는 잡음의 영향을 줄이기 위해 SVD 계수를 임계화하는 과정이 사용된다. 이 때 임계화 경계치로 고정된 값을 사용하거나 미리 정해진 진동 지수(Oscillation Index)에 따른 경계치가 사용된다. 이들 두 임계화 방식은 계산량과 정확도 측면에서 서로 장단점을 가지고 있다. 본 논문에서는 두 임계화 방식의 정확도를 비교하기 위한 몬테 칼로 모의 실험 방식을 제안한다. 또한 관류 해석시 사용하는 평활화 과정이 알고리즘의 정확도에 미치는 영향을 측정하기 위해 이 실험 방식을 확장하였다. 본 논문에서는 이와 같은 성능 비교를 위한 모의 실험 방식을 제시하고, 모의 데이터와 실제 CT 영상에 대한 실험 결과를 소개한다.

• 보건행정학회지
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• 제23권2호
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• pp.176-187
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• 2013

Background: In 2006 Emergency Medical Services Index (EMSI), which summarizes the performance of regional emergency medical services system, was developed. This study assesses the performance of the EMSI to help determine whether EMSI can be used as evaluation tool. Methods: To build a composite score of the EMSI from predefined 24 indicators, 3 normalized values were calculated for each indicator, the normalized values of each indicator were weighted using 4 weighting methods, and the weighted values were aggregated into the final composite score using 2 aggregation schemes. The performance of EMSI was evaluated using 3 criteria: discrimination, construct validity, and sensitivity. Discrimination was the proportion of regions that did not include the overall median rank in the 5th to 95th percentiles rank interval, which was calculated from Monte Carlo simulation. Construct validity was a correlation among the alternative EMSIs. Sensitivity of EMSIs was evaluated by total shift of quartile membership and changes of 5th to 95th percentile intervals. Results: The total discrimination performance of the EMSI was 50.0%. Correlation coefficients between EMSIs using standardized values and those using rescaled values ranged from 0.621 to 0.997. Variation of the quartile membership of regions ranged from 0.0% to 75.0%. The total change in the 5th to 95th percentile intervals ranged from -19 to +17 places. Conclusion: The results suggested that the EMSI could be used as a tool for evaluating quality of regional EMS system and for identifying the areas for quality improvement.

• 한국의학물리학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국의학물리학회 2004년도 제29회 추계학술대회 발표논문집
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• pp.69-71
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• 2004

양성자 치료는 양성자 빔의 선량분포 특성인 브래그 피크를 이용한 방사선 치료방법으로 기존의 전자 및 광자빔을 이용하는 방사선 치료와 비교하여 정상세포에는 현저히 적은 선량을 주고, 암세포에는 대부분의 선량을 줄 수 있어 최근에 각광받고 있다. 양성자 치료 빔은 치료 부위에서 완전히 멈추고 인체 내 각기 다른 밀도를 가진 장기들에 의해 양성자 빔의 비정이 불확실하기 때문에 체내 양성자 빔의 분포를 확인하고 빔을 조정하면서 치료할 수 있는 적절한 방법이 없다. 양성자 빔의 물질에 대한 흡수선량 분포와 물질과 양성자의 핵반응으로 방출되는 즉발 감마선의 상관관계를 이용한 측정시스템을 몬테칼로 전산코드로 전산모사하고 계산한 결과 체내 양성자 빔의 위치를 실시간으로 측정할 수 있음을 확인하였다.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제24권6호
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• pp.561-581
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• 2017

Bayesian statistics can play a key role in the design and analysis of clinical trials and this has been demonstrated for medical device trials. By 1995 Bayesian statistics had been well developed and the revolution in computing powers and Markov chain Monte Carlo development made calculation of posterior distributions within computational reach. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) initiative of Bayesian statistics in medical device clinical trials, which began almost 20 years ago, is reviewed in detail along with some of the key decisions that were made along the way. Both Bayesian hierarchical modeling using data from previous studies and Bayesian adaptive designs, usually with a non-informative prior, are discussed. The leveraging of prior study data has been accomplished through Bayesian hierarchical modeling. An enormous advantage of Bayesian adaptive designs is achieved when it is accompanied by modeling of the primary endpoint to produce the predictive posterior distribution. Simulations are crucial to providing the operating characteristics of the Bayesian design, especially for a complex adaptive design. The 2010 FDA Bayesian guidance for medical device trials addressed both approaches as well as exchangeability, Type I error, and sample size. Treatment response adaptive randomization using the famous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation example is discussed. An interesting real example of a Bayesian analysis using a failed trial with an interesting subgroup as prior information is presented. The implications of the likelihood principle are considered. A recent exciting area using Bayesian hierarchical modeling has been the pediatric extrapolation using adult data in clinical trials. Historical control information from previous trials is an underused area that lends itself easily to Bayesian methods. The future including recent trends, decision theoretic trials, Bayesian benefit-risk, virtual patients, and the appalling lack of penetration of Bayesian clinical trials in the medical literature are discussed.

• 대한조선학회논문집
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• 제33권1호
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• pp.98-108
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• 1996

일반 구조물의 신뢰성 해석에서는 한계상태 방정식이 implicit한 이유로 추출법이나 확률 유한요소법이 주로 이용되나, 이들 방법은 여러번의 구조해석 결과가 필요하므로 시간과 노력이 크게 소요된다. 반면 응답면 기법은 적은 횟수의 구조해석 결과를 이용하여 implicit한 응답면을 관심있는 영역에서 근사하는 방법으로 일반 구조물의 신뢰성 해석에 효율적으로 이용할 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 응답면 기법으로서 중심합성 계획법, Bucher-Bourgund법, 그리고 인공신경망에 의한 근사법을 이용하여 일반 구조물의 신뢰성 해석에 적용하고, 각 방법의 장단점을 비교하였다.

• 한국지진공학회논문집
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• 제27권5호
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• pp.213-220
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• 2023

Seismic fragility curves play a crucial role in assessing potential seismic losses and predicting structural damage caused by earthquakes. This study compares non-sampling-based methods of seismic fragility curve derivation, particularly the probabilistic seismic demand model (PSDM) and finite element reliability analysis (FERA), both of which require employing sophisticated finite element analysis to evaluate and predict structural damage caused by earthquakes. In this study, a three-dimensional finite element model of API 5L X65, a buried gas pipeline widely used in Korea, is constructed to derive seismic fragility curves. Its seismic vulnerability is assessed using nonlinear time-history analysis. PSDM and a FERA are employed to derive seismic fragility curves for comparison purposes, and the results are verified through a comparison with those from the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). It is observed that the fragility curves obtained from PSDM are relatively conservative, which is attributed to the assumption introduced to consider the uncertainty factors. In addition, this study provides a comprehensive comparison of seismic fragility curve derivation methods based on sophisticated finite element analysis, which may contribute to developing more accurate and efficient seismic fragility analysis.

• Radiation Oncology Journal
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• 제21권4호
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• pp.322-329
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• 2003

목적 .: 고에너지 X-선의 표면 선량과 선량보강(build-up) 영역에서의 선량 분포는 일반적으로 방사선 계측에 사용되는 전리함 측정기로는 정확한 선량 분포를 얻기가 매우 어렵다. 본 연구는 고에너지 X-선 선량 계측에 보편적으로 사용되고 있는 여러 측정기를 이용하여 팬톰 표면에서의 흡수선량과 최대 선량 지점(d$_{max}$)을 측정하여 측정기 사이의 정확성을 비교 분석하고, 각 치료 기관에서 보편적으로 사용되는 측정기 중 표면 선량 측정에 적절한 측정장치를 제안하고 그 유용성을 제시하고자 한다. 대상 및 방법 : 본 실험에서는 6 MV와 IS MV X-선에 대해 조사면이 10$\times$10 cm$^{2}$, SSD=100 cm에서 TLD, 팀블형전리함(thimble type ion chamber), 다이오드 검출기, 다이아몬드 검출기와 Markus 평행판 전리함 등을 이용하여 심부선량백분율(percent depth dose: PDD)을 측정하여, 표면 선량(suface dose)과 최대 선량 지점(dnu)을 비교 분석하고, 또한 TLD 측정 시와 동일 조건으로 Monte Cario 계산을 실행하여 TLD의 측정 결과와 비교하였다. 결과: 6 WV와 IS MV X-선에 대해 Markus 평행판 전리함을 이용하여 측정한 표면 선량은 각각 29.31$\%$와 23.36$\%$으로 측정되었으며, TLD는 37.17$\%$와 24.06$\%$, 다이아몬드 검출기는 34.78$\%$와 24.06$\%$, 다이오드 검출기는 38.18$\%$와 27.8$\%$, 팀블형 전리함은 47.92$\%$와 36.06$\%$ 였으며, Monte Cario 계산에 의한 표면 선량 값은 S MV X-선에 대해 TLD 측정 시와 동일한 조건으로 팬톰 내에 가상적인 TLD를 삽입한 경우 36.22$\%$로 실제 측정값 37.17$\%$와 유사하였다. 최대 선량 지점의 깊이는 모든 측정기에서 6 MV X-선에 대하여 14$\~$16 mm, IS MV X-선에서는 27$\~$29 mm사이의 측정기에 따라 작은 차이를 보였다. 결론 : 표면 선량의 경우에는 측정기에 따라 현저한 차이를 보였으며 Markus 평행판 전리함이 사용된 측정기 중가장 정확한 결과를 보였고, 팀블형 전리함의 경우 다른 측정기에 비해 약 10$\%$ 이상 높은 선량을 보여 피부 표면에 가까이 위치한 종양에 대한 방사선 치료 계뵉 시에는 임상에서 가장 보편적으로 사용되고 있는 팀블형 전리함의 선량 값을 그대로 사용하기에는 많은 오류가 발생하므로 가능한 표면 선량 측정에 적절한 측정기를 선택하여 사용하거나 측정기 특성을 고려한 보정이 필요할 것으로 생각된다. 최대 선량 지점(d$_{max}$)의 결과는 모든 측정기에서 비슷한 결과를 나타내고 있어 본 실험에서 사용한 모든 측정기는 그 특성에 상관없이 최대 선량 지점 측정에 사용이 가능함을 알 수 있었다.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제35권3호
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• pp.49-57
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• 2020

In comparison with the existing static reliability analysis methods, the dynamic reliability analysis(DyRA) method is more suitable for estimating the failure probability of a structure subjected to earthquake excitations because it can take into account the frequency characteristics and damping capacity of the structure. However, the DyRA is known to have an issue of numerical stability due to the uncertainty in random sampling of the earthquake excitations. In order to solve this numerical stability issue in the DyRA approach, this study proposed two earthquake-scale factors. The first factor is defined as the ratio of the first earthquake excitation over the maximum value of the remaining excitations, and the second factor is defined as the condition number of the matrix consisting of the earthquake excitations. Then, we have performed parametric studies of two factors on numerical stability of the DyRA method. In illustrative example, it was clearly confirmed that the two factors can be used to verify the numerical stability of the proposed DyRA method. However, there exists a difference between the two factors. The first factor showed some overlapping region between the stable results and the unstable results so that it requires some additional reliability analysis to guarantee the stability of the DyRA method. On the contrary, the second factor clearly distinguished the stable and unstable results of the DyRA method without any overlapping region. Therefore, the second factor can be said to be better than the first factor as the criterion to determine whether or not the proposed DyRA method guarantees its numerical stability. In addition, the accuracy of the numerical analysis results of the proposed DyRA has been verified in comparison with those of the existing first-order reliability method(FORM), Monte Carlo simulation(MCS) method and subset simulation method(SSM). The comparative results confirmed that the proposed DyRA method can provide accurate and reliable estimation of the structural failure probability while maintaining the superior numerical efficiency over the existing methods.

• Genomics & Informatics
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• 제10권2호
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• pp.81-87
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• 2012

Large-scale copy number variants (CNVs) in the human provide the raw material for delineating population differences, as natural selection may have affected at least some of the CNVs thus far discovered. Although the examination of relatively large numbers of specific ethnic groups has recently started in regard to inter-ethnic group differences in CNVs, identifying and understanding particular instances of natural selection have not been performed. The traditional $F_{ST}$ measure, obtained from differences in allele frequencies between populations, has been used to identify CNVs loci subject to geographically varying selection. Here, we review advances and the application of multinomial-Dirichlet likelihood methods of inference for identifying genome regions that have been subject to natural selection with the $F_{ST}$ estimates. The contents of presentation are not new; however, this review clarifies how the application of the methods to CNV data, which remains largely unexplored, is possible. A hierarchical Bayesian method, which is implemented via Markov Chain Monte Carlo, estimates locus-specific $F_{ST}$ and can identify outlying CNVs loci with large values of FST. By applying this Bayesian method to the publicly available CNV data, we identified the CNV loci that show signals of natural selection, which may elucidate the genetic basis of human disease and diversity.