• Title/Summary/Keyword: model reanalysis

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Some issues on the downscaling of global climate simulations to regional scales

  • Jang, Suhyung;Hwang, Manha;Hur, Youngteck;Kavvas, M. Levent
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.229-229
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    • 2015
  • Downscaling is a fundamental procedure in the assessment of the future climate change impact at regional and watershed scales. Hence, it is important to investigate the spatial variability of the climate conditions that are constructed by various downscaling methods in order to assess whether each method can model the climate conditions at various spatial scales properly. This study introduces a fundamental research from Jang and Kavvas(2015) that precipitation variability from a popular statistical downscaling method (BCSD) and a dynamical downscaling method (MM5) that is based on the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data for a historical period and on the CCSM3 GCM A1B emission scenario simulations for a projection period, is investigated by means of some spatial characteristics: a) the normalized standard deviation (NSD), and b) the precipitation change over Northern California region. From the results of this study it is found that the BCSD method has limitations in projecting future precipitation values since the BCSD-projected precipitation, being based on the interpolated change factors from GCM projected precipitation, does not consider the interactions between GCM outputs and local geomorphological characteristics such as orographic effects and land use/cover patterns. As such, it is not clear whether the popular BCSD method is suitable for the assessment of the impact of future climate change at regional, watershed and local scales as the future climate will evolve in time and space as a nonlinear system with land-atmosphere feedbacks. However, it is noted that in this study only the BCSD procedure for the statistical downscaling method has been investigated, and the results by other statistical downscaling methods might be different.

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Accounting for the Atmospheric Stability in Wind Resource Variations and Its Impacts on the Power Generation by Concentric Equivalent Wind Speed (동심원 등가풍속을 이용한 대기안정도에 따른 풍력자원 변화에 관한 연구)

  • Ryu, Geon-Hwa;Kim, Dong-Hyeok;Lee, Hwa-Woon;Park, Soon-Young;Yoo, Jung-Woo;Kim, Hyun-Goo
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.49-61
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    • 2016
  • The power production using hub height wind speed tends to be overestimated than actual power production. It is because the hub height wind speed cannot represent vertical wind shear and blade tip loss that aerodynamics characteristic on the wind turbine. The commercial CFD model WindSim is used to compare and analyze each power production. A classification of atmospheric stability is accomplished by Monin-Obukhov length. The concentric wind speed constantly represents low value than horizontal equivalent wind speed or hub height wind speed, and also relevant to power production. The difference between hub height wind speed and concentric equivalent wind speed is higher in nighttime than daytime. Under the strongly convective state, power production is lower than under the stable state, especially using the concentric equivalent wind speed. Using the concentric equivalent wind speed considering vertical wind shear and blade tip loss is well estimated to decide suitable area for constructing wind farm.

Retrieval and Quality Assessment of Atmospheric Winds from the Aircraft-Based Observation Near Incheon International Airport, Korea (인천 공항 주변 고해상도 항공기 추적 정보 기반의 바람 관측자료 생산 및 품질 검증)

  • Kim, Jeongmin;Kim, Jung-Hoon
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.323-340
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    • 2022
  • We analyzed the high-resolution wind data of Aircraft-Based Observation from the Mode-Selective Enhanced Surveillance (Mode-S EHS) data in Korea. For assessment of its quality, the Mode-S wind data was compared with the ECMWF ReAnalysis 5 (ERA5) reanalysis and Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay (AMDAR) data for more than 3-months from 7 May 2021 to 24 August 2021 near Incheon International Airport, Korea. Considering that the AMDAR reports are not provided by all commercial aircraft, total number of the Mode-S derived wind data with a second sampling rate was about twice larger than that of available AMDAR wind data. After the quality control procedures by removing erroneous samples, it was found that the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of the Mode-S retrieved winds are similar to that from the AMDAR winds. In particular, between 550 and 650 hPa levels, RMSE of the Mode-S (AMDAR) zonal wind against ERA5 data was about 2.3 m s-1 (1.9 m s-1), and those increased to 3.3 m s-1 (2.4 m s-1) in 200~500 hPa levels. A similar trend was found in the meridional wind, but a distinct positive mean bias of 2.16 m s-1 was observed between 875 and 1,000 hPa levels. Winds retrieved from the Mode-S also showed a good agreement directly with AMDAR data. As the Mode-S provides a large amount of data with a reliable quality, it can be useful for both data assimilation in the numerical weather prediction model and situational awareness of wind and turbulence for aviation safety in Korea.

Bioimage Analyses Using Artificial Intelligence and Future Ecological Research and Education Prospects: A Case Study of the Cichlid Fishes from Lake Malawi Using Deep Learning

  • Joo, Deokjin;You, Jungmin;Won, Yong-Jin
    • Proceedings of the National Institute of Ecology of the Republic of Korea
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.67-72
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    • 2022
  • Ecological research relies on the interpretation of large amounts of visual data obtained from extensive wildlife surveys, but such large-scale image interpretation is costly and time-consuming. Using an artificial intelligence (AI) machine learning model, especially convolution neural networks (CNN), it is possible to streamline these manual tasks on image information and to protect wildlife and record and predict behavior. Ecological research using deep-learning-based object recognition technology includes various research purposes such as identifying, detecting, and identifying species of wild animals, and identification of the location of poachers in real-time. These advances in the application of AI technology can enable efficient management of endangered wildlife, animal detection in various environments, and real-time analysis of image information collected by unmanned aerial vehicles. Furthermore, the need for school education and social use on biodiversity and environmental issues using AI is raised. School education and citizen science related to ecological activities using AI technology can enhance environmental awareness, and strengthen more knowledge and problem-solving skills in science and research processes. Under these prospects, in this paper, we compare the results of our early 2013 study, which automatically identified African cichlid fish species using photographic data of them, with the results of reanalysis by CNN deep learning method. By using PyTorch and PyTorch Lightning frameworks, we achieve an accuracy of 82.54% and an F1-score of 0.77 with minimal programming and data preprocessing effort. This is a significant improvement over the previous our machine learning methods, which required heavy feature engineering costs and had 78% accuracy.

Backward estimation of precipitation from high spatial resolution SAR Sentinel-1 soil moisture: a case study for central South Korea

  • Nguyen, Hoang Hai;Han, Byungjoo;Oh, Yeontaek;Jung, Woosung;Shin, Daeyun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.329-329
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    • 2022
  • Accurate characterization of terrestrial precipitation variation from high spatial resolution satellite sensors is beneficial for urban hydrology and microscale agriculture modeling, as well as natural disasters (e.g., urban flooding) early warning. However, the widely-used top-down approach for precipitation retrieval from microwave satellites is limited in several hydrological and agricultural applications due to their coarse spatial resolution. In this research, we aim to apply a novel bottom-up method, the parameterized SM2RAIN, where precipitation can be estimated from soil moisture signals based on an inversion of water balance model, to generate high spatial resolution terrestrial precipitation estimates at 0.01º grid (roughly 1-km) from the C-band SAR Sentinel-1. This product was then tested against a common reanalysis-based precipitation data and a domestic rain gauge network from the Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA) over central South Korea, since a clear difference between climatic types (coasts and mainlands) and land covers (croplands and mixed forests) was reported in this area. The results showed that seasonal precipitation variability strongly affected the SM2RAIN performances, and the product derived from separated parameters (rainy and non-rainy seasons) outperformed that estimated considering the entire year. In addition, the product retrieved over the mainland mixed forest region showed slightly superior performance compared to that over the coastal cropland region, suggesting that the 6-day time resolution of S1 data is suitable for capturing the stable precipitation pattern in mainland mixed forests rather than the highly variable precipitation pattern in coastal croplands. Future studies suggest comparing this product to the traditional top-down products, as well as evaluating their integration for enhancing high spatial resolution precipitation over entire South Korea.

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Reanalysis of Realistic Mathematics Education Perspective in Relation to Cultivation of Mathematical Creativity (현실적 수학교육 이론의 재음미 : 수학적 창의성 교육의 관점에서)

  • Lee, Kyeong-Hwa
    • Journal of Educational Research in Mathematics
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.47-62
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    • 2016
  • Cultivating mathematical creativity is one of the aims in the recently revised mathematics curricular. However, there have been lack of researches on how to nurture mathematical creativity for ordinary students. Perspective of Realistic Mathematics Education(RME), which pursues education of creative person as the ultimate goal of mathematics education, could be useful for developing principles and methods for cultivating mathematical creativity. This study reanalyzes RME from the points of view in mathematical creativity education. Major findings are followed. First, students should have opportunities for mathematical creation through mathematization, while seeking and creating certainty. Second, it is vital to begin with realistic contexts to guarantee mathematical creation by students, in which students can imagine or think. Third, students can create mathematics in realistic contexts by modelling. Fourth, students create the meaning of 'model of(MO)', which models the given context, the meaning of 'model for(MF)', which models formal mathematics. Then, students create MOs and MFs that are equivalent to the intial MO and MF given by textbook or teacher. Flexibility, fluency, and novelty could be employed to evaluate the MOs and the MFs created by students. Fifth, cultivation of mathematical creativity can be supported from development of local instructional theories by thought experiment, its application, and reflection. In conclusion, to employ the education model of cultivating mathematical creativity by RME drawn in this study could be reasonable when design mathematics lessons as well as mathematics curriculum to include mathematical creativity as one of goals.

Estimates of the Water Cycle and River Discharge Change over the Global Land at the End of 21st Century Based on RCP Scenarios of HadGEM2-AO Climate Model (기후모델(HadGEM2-AO)의 대표농도경로(RCP) 시나리오에 따른 21세기 말 육지 물순환 및 대륙별 하천유출량 변화 추정)

  • Kim, Moon-Hyun;Kang, Hyun-Suk;Lee, Johan;Baek, Hee-Jeong;Cho, ChunHo
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.425-441
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    • 2013
  • This study investigates the projections of water cycle, budget and river discharge over land in the world at the end of twenty-first century simulated by atmosphere-ocean climate model of Hadley Centre (HadGEM2-AO) and total runoff integrating pathways (TRIP) based on the RCP scenario. Firstly, to validate the HadGEM2-AO hydrology, the surface water states were evaluated for the present period using precipitation, evaporation, runoff and river discharge. Although this model underestimates the annual precipitation about 0.4 mm $mon^{-1}$, evaporation 3.7 mm $mon^{-1}$, total runoff 1.6 mm $mon^{-1}$ and river discharge 8.6% than observation and reanalysis data, it has good water balance in terms of inflow and outflow at surface. In other words, it indicates the -0.3 mm $mon^{-1}$ of water storage (P-E-R) compared with ERA40 showing -2.4 mm $mon^{-1}$ for the present hydrological climate. At the end of the twenty-first century, annual mean precipitation may decrease in heavy rainfall region, such as northern part of South America, central Africa and eastern of North America, but for increase over the Tropical Western Pacific and East Asian region. Also it can generally increase in high latitudes inland of the Northern Hemisphere. Spatial patterns of annual evaporation and runoff are similar to that of precipitation. And river discharge tends to increase over all continents except for South America including Amazon Basin, due to increased runoff. Overall, HadGEM2-AO prospects that water budget for the future will globally have negative signal (-8.0~-0.3% of change rate) in all RCP scenarios indicating drier phase than the present climate over land.

Forecasting the Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Pacific by Neural Network Model (신경망 모델을 이용한 적도 태평양 표층 수온 예측)

  • Chang You-Soon;Lee Da-Un;Seo Jang-Won;Youn Yong-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.268-275
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    • 2005
  • One of the nonlinear statistical modelling, neural network method was applied to predict the Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTA) in the Nino regions, which represent El Nino indices. The data used as inputs in the training step of neural network model were the first seven empirical orthogonal functions in the tropical Pacific $(120^{\circ}\;E,\;20^{\circ}\;S-20^{\circ}\;N)$ obtained from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The period of 1951 to 1993 was adopted for the training of neural network model, and the period 1994 to 2003 for the forecasting validation. Forecasting results suggested that neural network models were resonable for SSTA forecasting until 9-month lead time. They also predicted greatly the development and decay of strong E1 Nino occurred in 1997-1998 years. Especially, Nino3 region appeared to be the best forecast region, while the forecast skills rapidly decreased since 9-month lead time. However, in the Nino1+2 region where they are relatively low by the influence of local effects, they did not decrease even after 9-month lead time.

Performance of NCAR Regional Climate Model in the Simulation of Indian Summer Monsoon (NCAR 지역기후모형의 인도 여름 몬순의 모사 성능)

  • Singh, Gyan Prakash;Oh, Jai-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.183-196
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    • 2010
  • Increasing human activity due to rapid economic growth and land use change alters the patterns of the Asian monsoon, which is key to crop yields in Asia. In this study, we tested the performance of regional climate model (RegCM3) by simulating important components of Indian summer monsoon, including land-ocean contrast, low level jet (LLJ), Tibetan high and upper level Easterly Jet. Three contrasting rain years (1994: excess year, 2001: normal year, 2002: deficient year) were selected and RegCM3 was integrated at 60 km horizontal resolution from April 1 to October 1 each year. The simulated fields of circulations and precipitation were validated against the observation from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis products and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC), respectively. The important results of RegCM3 simulations are (a) LLJ was slightly stronger and split into two branches during excess rain year over the Arabian Sea while there was no splitting during normal and deficient rain years, (b) huge anticyclone with single cell was noted during excess rain year while weak and broken into two cells in deficient rain year, (c) the simulated spatial distribution of precipitation was comparable to the corresponding observed precipitation of GPCC over large parts of India, and (d) the sensitivity experiment using NIMBUS-7 SMMR snow data indicated that precipitation was reduced mainly over the northeast and south Peninsular India with the introduction of 0.1 m of snow over the Tibetan region in April.

Inferring Regional Scale Surface Heat Flux around FK KoFlux Site: From One Point Tower Measurement to MM5 Mesoscale Model (FK KoFlux 관측지에서의 지역 규모 열 플럭스의 추정 : 타워 관측에서 MM5 중규모 모형까지)

  • Jinkyu Hong;Hee Choon Lee;Joon Kim;Baekjo Kim;Chonho Cho;Seongju Lee
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.138-149
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    • 2003
  • Korean regional network of tower flux sites, KoFlux, has been initiated to better understand $CO_2$, water and energy exchange between ecosystems and the atmosphere, and to contribute to regional, continental, and global observation networks such as FLUXNET and CEOP. Due to heterogeneous surface characteristics, most of KoFlux towers are located in non-ideal sites. In order to quantify carbon and energy exchange and to scale them up from plot scales to a region scale, applications of various methods combining measurement and modeling are needed. In an attempt to infer regional-scale flux, four methods (i.e., tower flux, convective boundary layer (CBL) budget method, MM5 mesoscale model, and NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data) were employed to estimate sensible heat flux representing different surface areas. Our preliminary results showed that (1) sensible heat flux from the tower in Haenam farmland revealed heterogeneous surface characteristics of the site; (2) sensible heat flux from CBL method was sensitive to the estimation of advection; and (3) MM5 mesoscale model produced regional fluxes that were comparable to tower fluxes. In view of the spatial heterogeneity of the site and inherent differences in spatial scale between the methods, however, the spatial representativeness of tower flux need to be quantified based on footprint climatology, geographic information system, and the patch scale analysis of satellite images of the study site.