• Title/Summary/Keyword: maximum age model

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ESTIMATION AND SENSITIVITY OF GOMPERTZ PARAMETERS WITH MORTALITY DECELERATION RATE

  • PITCHAIMANI M.
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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    • v.18 no.1_2
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    • pp.311-320
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    • 2005
  • Studies in the evolutionary biology of aging require good estimates of the age-dependent mortality rate coefficient (one of the Gompertz parameters). In this paper we introduce an alternative algorithm for estimating this parameter. And we discuss the sensitivity of the estimates to changes in the other model parameters.

The Influence of Steepness and Natural Mortality Rate on the MSY Calculation in an Age-structured Model (연령구조평가모델 하의 MSY 계산에서 Steepness와 자연사망률의 영향 분석)

  • Jung Hyun Yoon;Jinwoo Gim;Heejung Kang;Saang-Yoon Hyu
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.57 no.3
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    • pp.292-301
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    • 2024
  • It is challenging to simultaneously estimate parameters in a stock-recruitment relationship, steepness, and natural mortality rate with the other parameters within an age-structured assessment model even in a data-rich situation. Such a problem leads to uncertainty in estimates of management references such as maximum sustainable yield (MSY), which are affected by those components. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of those parameters on MSY by analyzing the process of estimating the MSY. For illustration, we used two data sets: The chub mackerel Scomber japonicus in the Korean waters and the yellowtail flounder Limanda ferruginea in the Southern New England-Mid Atlantic. As a result, the natural mortality rate influenced spawning stock biomass per recruit, yield per recruit, and MSY, while steepness affected MSY. A sensitivity analysis enabled us to estimate the natural mortality rate and steepness. The optimal set of steepness and natural mortality was 1.0 and 0.37 per year for the chub mackerel, and 0.35, and 0.8 per year for the yellowtail flounder, respectively.

Genomic Heritability of Bovine Growth Using a Mixed Model

  • Ryu, Jihye;Lee, Chaeyoung
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.27 no.11
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    • pp.1521-1525
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    • 2014
  • This study investigated heritability for bovine growth estimated with genomewide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) information obtained from a DNA microarray chip. Three hundred sixty seven Korean cattle were genotyped with the Illumina BovineSNP50 BeadChip, and 39,112 SNPs of 364 animals filtered by quality assurance were analyzed to estimate heritability of body weights at 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 21, and 24 months of age. Restricted maximum likelihood estimate of heritability was obtained using covariance structure of genomic relationships among animals in a mixed model framework. Heritability estimates ranged from 0.58 to 0.76 for body weights at different ages. The heritability estimates using genomic information in this study were larger than those which had been estimated previously using pedigree information. The results revealed a trend that the heritability for body weight increased at a younger age (6 months). This suggests an early genetic evaluation for bovine growth using genomic information to increase genetic merits of animals.

Acoustic Characteristics on the Adolescent Period Aged from 16 to 18 Years (16~18세 청소년기 음성의 음향음성학적 특성)

  • Ko, Hye-Ju;Kang, Min-Jae;Kwon, Hyuk-Jae;Choi, Yaelin;Lee, Mi-Geum;Choi, Hong-Shik
    • Phonetics and Speech Sciences
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.81-90
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    • 2013
  • During adolescence the mutational period is characterized by the changes in the laryngeal structure, the length of the vocal cords, and a tone of voice. Usually, adolescents at 15 or 16 reach the voice of adults but the mutational period is sometimes delayed. Therefore, studies on the voice of adolescents between 16 ~ 18 right after the mutational period are required. Accordingly, this paper attempted to provide basic data about the normal standard for patients with voice disorders during this period by evaluating the vocal characteristics of males and females between 16 ~ 18 with an objective device bycomparing and analyzing them by sex and age. The study was conducted on a total of 60 subjects composed of each 10 subjects of each age. The vocal analysis was conducted by MPT (Maximum Phonation Time) measurement, sustained vowels and sentence reading. As for /a/ sustained vowels, fundamental frequency, hereinafter referred to as $F_0$, jitter, shimmer, noise-to-harmonic ratio, hereinafter referred to as NHR were measured by using the Multi-dimensional voice program (MDVP) among the Multi-Speech program of Computerized Speech Lab (Kay Elemetrics). The sentence reading, mean $F_0$, maximum $F_0$ and minimum $F_0$ were measured using the Real-Time Pitch (RTP) Model 5121 among the Multi-Speech program of Computerized Speech Lab (Kay Elemetrics). As a result, according to sex, there were statistically significant differences in $F_0$, jitter, shimmer, mean $F_0$, maximum $F_0$, and minimum $F_0$; and according to age, there were statistically significant differences in MPT. In conclusion, the voice of the adolescents between 16 ~ 18 reached the maturity levels of adults but the voice quality which can be considered on the scale of voice disorders showed transition to the voice of an adult during the mutational period.

Estimating Repair Effect and Parameters of Intensity Function under BMS Repair Model (BMS 수리모형하에서 시스템의 수리효과 및 고장강도함수의 모수추정)

  • 윤원영;정석주;정일한;김종운;정상욱
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.45-54
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    • 2000
  • Estimation Problems of parameters of the failure process and the repair effect in repairable systems are considered. We propose estimation procedures in repairable systems without preventive maintenances. The failure process is modeled by a proportional age reduction model (Brown, Mahoney, Sivazlian [5]) which is able to consider both aging and repair effects. Maximum likelihood method is used to estimate the repair effect and parameters of intensity function simultaneously. simulations are performed to evaluate the accuracy of estimators. A numerical example is also presented.

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Calibration of Activated Sludge Model No. 1 using Maximum Respiration Rate: Maximum Autotrophs Specific Growth Rate (최대 호흡율을 이용한 활성슬러지 모델 No.1 보정: 자가영양균 최대비성장율 추정)

  • Choi, E.H.;Buys, B.;Temmink, H.;Klapwijk, B.
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.409-413
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    • 2005
  • A method to estimate the autotrophic maximum specific growth rate is presented in this paper. First of all, the concentration of nitrifier is simulated based on the amount of N nitrified, the sludge age and the default value for the decay coefficient. Secondly the OUR of the sludge with access of ammonia is measured. The maximum specific growth rate can be calculated as ${\mu}_{max,A}\;=\;OUR_{max,A}/Y_A$. It was demonstrated that the maximum specific growth rate of autotrophic biomass is not a constants but a time variable parameter. It is concluded that using $OUR_{max,A}$ for dynamic estimating maximum specific growth rate is a good approach and that using a constant value for the maximum specific growth rate over a longer period of time could not predict the performance of activated sludge plants.

A Strategy for Safe Addition of Selected Micronutrients to Foods for Children (어린이를 위한 일반식품에의 일부 미량영양소 임의영양 강화 안전 수준 평가)

  • Oh, Se-Young
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.42 no.2
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    • pp.128-134
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    • 2009
  • For children, voluntary addition of micronutrients to foods must be done without health risk to any of them. This study examined safe maximum levels of vitamin A and C, and calcium for children based on nutrient intake data from the 2001-2002 and 2005 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) in Korea, while using the safe strategy for addition of micronutrients to foods suggested by EU. For the respective 2001-2002 and 2005 NHANES data proportions of potentially fortifiable energy intake ranged 0.36-0.40 and 0.31-0.34 and the $95^{th}$ percentile intake of energy were 2,325-3,296 kcal and 2,286-3,814 kcal depending upon age groups. Ninety-fifth percentile intake levels of vitamin A were over or close to UL, even without considering supplement intake for some age groups, which suggest that vitamin A fortification to foods required further consideration. For calcium, 12-14 year old children were the most sensitive group for excessive intake and nutrient fortification to foods. In these children, maximum levels for fortification were 242-290 mg and 484-580 mg with 0.135 and 0.068 proportions of fortified food (PFF) assumed, respectively, without considering calcium intake from supplements. With consideration of calcium intake from both diet and supplement, the maximum levels for fortification were 20-36% of those without supplement intake. The maximum fortification levels of vitamin C were the lowest in 3-5 year old children, showing 77-187 mg and 68-164 mg with and without supplement intake, respectively. These results suggest that the model used for risk assessment in this study can be used to help risk managers to set maximum levels for safe addition of micronutrients to foods.

Cost-Effectiveness of Denosumab for Post-Menopausal Osteoporosis in South Korea (폐경기 골다공증 환자에서 데노수맙 사용에 대한 비용-효과 분석)

  • Bae, Green;Kwon, Hye-Young
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Pharmacy
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.131-137
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    • 2018
  • Background: In South Korea, 22.3% of women ${\geq}50years$ of age and 37% of women ${\geq}70years$ of age visit the doctor to obtain treatment for osteoporosis. According to the analysis of the National Health Insurance Services claim data between 2008 and 2012, the number and incidence of hip and vertebral fractures increased during the same period. Denosumab, a newly marketed medicine in Korea, is the first RANK inhibitor. Methods: A cost-utility analysis was conducted from a societal perspective to prove the superiority of denosumab to alendronate. A Markov cohort model was used to investigate the cost-effectiveness of denosumab. A 6-month cycle length was used in the model, and all patients were individually followed up through the model, from their age at treatment initiation to their time of death or until 100 years of age. The model consisted of eight health states: well; hip fracture; vertebral fracture; wrist fracture; other osteoporotic fracture; post-hip fracture; post-vertebral fracture; and dead. All patients began in the well-health state. In this model, 5% discounted rate, two-year maximum offset time, and persistence were adopted. Results: The total lifetime costs for alendronate and denosumab were USD 5,587 and USD 6,534, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for denosumab versus alendronate was USD 20,600/QALY. Given the ICER threshold in Korea, the results indicated that denosumab was remarkably superior to alendronate. Conclusion: Denosumab is a cost-effective alternative to the oral anti-osteoporotic treatment, alendronate, in South Korea.

Estimation of Genetic and Phenotypic Covariance Functions for Body Weight as Longitudinal Data of SD-II Swine Line

  • Liu, Wenzhong;Cao, Guoqing;Zhou, Zhongxiao;Zhang, Guixian
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.622-626
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    • 2002
  • Growth records over six generations of 686 pigs in SD-II Swine Line were used to estimate the genetic and phenotypic covariance functions for body weight as longitudinal data. A random regression model with Legendre polynomials of age as independent variables was used to estimate the (co)variances among the regression coefficients, thus the coefficients of genetic and permanent environmental covariance functions by restricted maximum likelihood employing the average information algorithm. The results showed that, using litter effect as additional random effect, a reduced order of fit did not describe the data adequately. For all five orders of fit, however, the change trends of genetic and phenotypic (co)variances were very similar from ${\kappa}$=3 onwards.

Parameter estimation using GA with failure data under preventive maintenance (예방 정비가 실시된 고장 자료에서의 유전 알고리즘을 이용한 모수 추정)

  • 윤영원;정일한;김종운;신주환
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.47-54
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    • 2001
  • This paper considers the parameter estimation problem of the failure intensity function and maintenance effect in a repairable system. We propose estimation procedures for repairable systems on which preventive maintenance is performed. The failure process is modeled by a proportional age reduction model [Brown, Mahoney and Sivazlian(1983)] which is useful to model the imperfect effect of preventive maintenance. When failure and maintenance (preventive) times are given, the maximum likelihood method is used to estimate the maintenance effect and the parameters of intensity function, simultaneously We obtain the maximum likelihood estimators using a genetic algorithm. A numerical example is also presented.

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