• Title/Summary/Keyword: martingale

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Nonparametric estimation of hazard rates change-point (위험률의 변화점에 대한 비모수적 추정)

  • 정광모
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.163-175
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    • 1998
  • The change of hazard rates at some unknown time point has been the interest of many statisticians. But it was restricted to the constant hazard rates which correspond to the exponential distribution. In this paper we generalize the change-point model in which any specific functional forms of hazard rates are net assumed. The assumed model includes various types of changes before and after the unknown time point. The Nelson estimator of cumulative hazard function is introduced. We estimate the change-point maximizing slope changes of Nelson estimator. Consistency and asymptotic distribution of bootstrap estimator are obtained using the martingale theory. Through a Monte Carlo study we check the performance of the proposed method. We also explain the proposed method using the Stanford Heart Transplant Data set.

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MEAN CONVERGENCE THEOREMS AND WEAK LAWS OF LARGE NUMBERS FOR DOUBLE ARRAYS OF RANDOM ELEMENTS IN BANACH SPACES

  • Dung, Le Van;Tien, Nguyen Duy
    • Bulletin of the Korean Mathematical Society
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    • v.47 no.3
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    • pp.467-482
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    • 2010
  • For a double array of random elements {$V_{mn};m{\geq}1,\;n{\geq}1$} in a real separable Banach space, some mean convergence theorems and weak laws of large numbers are established. For the mean convergence results, conditions are provided under which $k_{mn}^{-\frac{1}{r}}\sum{{u_m}\atop{i=1}}\sum{{u_n}\atop{i=1}}(V_{ij}-E(V_{ij}|F_{ij})){\rightarrow}0$ in $L_r$ (0 < r < 2). The weak law results provide conditions for $k_{mn}^{-\frac{1}{r}}\sum{{T_m}\atop{i=1}}\sum{{\tau}_n\atop{j=1}}(V_{ij}-E(V_{ij}|F_{ij})){\rightarrow}0$ in probability where {$T_m;m\;{\geq}1$} and {${\tau}_n;n\;{\geq}1$} are sequences of positive integer-valued random variables, {$k_{mn};m{{\geq}}1,\;n{\geq}1$} is an array of positive integers. The sharpness of the results is illustrated by examples.

Review on proportional hazards regression diagnostics based on residuas (잔차에 기초한 비례위험모형의 회귀진단법 고찰 - PBC 자료를 통한 응용 연구)

  • 이성임;박성현
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.233-250
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    • 2002
  • Cox's proportional hazard model is highly-used for the regression analysis of survival data in various fields. Regression diagnostics for the proportional hazards model, however, is not as well-known as the diagnostics for the classical linear models and so these diagnostic methods are not used widely in our practical data analyses. For this reason, we review the residuals proposed by several authors, and investigate how to use them in assessing the model. We also provide the results and interpretation with the analysis of PBC data using S-plus 2000 program.

ON THE WEAK LAW FOR WEIGHTED SUMS INDEXED BY RANDOM VARIABLES UNDER NEGATIVELY ASSOCIATED ARRAYS

  • Baek, Jong-Il;Lee, Dong-Myong
    • Communications of the Korean Mathematical Society
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.117-126
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    • 2003
  • Let {$X_{nk}$\mid$1\;{\leq}\;k\;{\leq}\;n,\;n\;{\geq}\;1$} be an array of row negatively associated (NA) random variables which satisfy $P($\mid$X_{nk}$\mid$\;>\;x)\;{\leq}\;P($\mid$X$\mid$\;>\;x)$. For weighed sums ${{\Sigma}_{k=1}}^{Tn}\;a_kX_{nk}$ indexed by random variables {$T_n$\mid$n\;{\geq}$1$}, we establish a general weak law of large numbers (WLLN) of the form $({{\Sigma}_{k=1}}^{Tn}\;a_kX_{nk}\;-\;v_{[nk]})\;/b_{[an]}$ under some suitable conditions, where $\{a_n$\mid$n\;\geq\;1\},\; \{b_n$\mid$n\;\geq\;1\}$ are sequences of constants with $a_n\;>\;0,\;0\;<\;b_n\;\rightarrow \;\infty,\;n\;{\geq}\;1$, and {$v_{an}$\mid$n\;{\geq}\;1$} is an array of random variables, and the symbol [x] denotes the greatest integer in x.

Option Pricing with Leptokurtic Feature (급첨 분포와 옵션 가격 결정)

  • Ki, Ho-Sam;Lee, Mi-Young;Choi, Byung-Wook
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.211-233
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    • 2004
  • This purpose of paper is to propose a European option pricing formula when the rate of return follows the leptokurtic distribution instead of normal. This distribution explains well the volatility smile and furthermore the option prices calculated under the leptokurtic distribution are shown to be closer to the market prices than those of Black-Scholes model. We make an estimation of the implied volatility and kurtosis to verify the fitness of the pricing formula that we propose here.

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Further study on the risk model with a continuous type investment (연속적으로 투자가 이루어지는 보험상품 리스크 모형의 추가 연구)

  • Choi, Seung Kyoung;Lee, Eui Yong
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.751-759
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    • 2018
  • Cho et al. (Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods, 23, 423-432, 2016) introduced a risk model with a continuous type investment and studied the stationary distribution of the surplus process. In this paper, we extend the earlier analysis by assuming that additional instant investment is made when the surplus process reaches a certain sufficient level. We obtain the explicit form of the stationary distribution of the surplus process. The case is shown as an example, when the amount of claim is exponentially distributed.

An optimal management policy for the surplus process with investments (재투자가 있는 잉여금 과정의 최적 운용정책)

  • Lim, Se-Jin;Choi, Seungkyoung;Lee, Eui-Yong
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.29 no.7
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    • pp.1165-1172
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    • 2016
  • In this paper, a surplus process with investments is introduced. Whenever the level of the surplus reaches a target value V > 0, amount S($0{\leq}S{\leq}V$) is invested into other business. After assigning three costs to the surplus process, a reward per unit amount of the investment, a penalty of the surplus being empty and the keeping (opportunity) cost per unit amount of the surplus per unit time, we obtain the long-run average cost per unit time to manage the surplus. We prove that there exists a unique value of S minimizing the long-run average cost per unit time for a given value of V, and also that there exists a unique value of V minimizing the long-run average cost per unit time for a given value of S. These two facts show that an optimal investment policy of the surplus exists when we manage the surplus in the long-run.