• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
• /
• v.32 no.1
• /
• pp.130-136
• /
• 2009

Estimation of mortality behavior of a industrial property are useful for calculating depreciation and making management decisions relating to property. The common methods of computing depreciation require an estimation of service life, and some methods may require an estimate of life expectancy. Estimation of service life and life expectancy can be computed from a smoothed and extended life table of original life tables developed through life analysis techniques. Several actuarial techniques are available to construct a life table for depreciation application. Of these methods, the graphic approach and graduation by mathematical formula are the most widely used in the field of depreciation. A commonly used technique of smoothing and of extending the life table is to fit a lows type survivor curves to the observed retirement rate by the least square method. In this paper, estimates of depreciation rate based on directly observed data of the domestic petrochemical equipments are presented.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
• /
• v.43 no.1
• /
• pp.57-66
• /
• 2015

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to apply the constrained Bayesian estimation methodology for product quality control process and prove the effectiveness of the product management by comparing with the well-known Bayes estimator through data performance result. Methods: The Bayes and constrained Bayes estimators were produced based on the theoretical background and for confirming the effectiveness of suggested application, the deviation index was defined and calculated for the comparison. Results: The statistical analysis result shows that applying the suggested estimation methodology, that is, constrained Bayes estimator improves the effectiveness of the index with regard to reduce the error by matching the first two empirical moments. Conclusion: Considering the advanced Bayesian approaches such as constrained Bayes estimation for the product quality control process, the newly defined deviation index reduces the error for estimating the parameter histogram which is reflected both location and deviation parameters and furthermore various Bayesian perspective approaches seems to be meaningful for managing the product quality control process.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
• /
• v.38 no.4
• /
• pp.480-490
• /
• 2010

In this paper, two estimation methods(least square estimation and maximum likelihood estimation) were compared for Weibull distribution and Type I censoring. Data obtained by Monte Carlo simulation were analyzed using two estimation methods and analysis results were compared by MSE(Mean Squared Error). Comparison results show that maximum likelihood estimator is better for censored data and complete data with more than 30 samples and least square estimator is better for small size complete data(less than and equal to 20 samples).

• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
• /
• v.12 no.2
• /
• pp.147-152
• /
• 2010

Project implementation plan is a blueprint that confirms project performance activities and specifies required man-hour, period and resource imput ratio. Various figures, the results of implementation plan, are predicted through estimation, and because of superiority of objectivity and repeatability, numerical formula-based estimation model is often used overseas. COCOMO model is the representative estimation model whose theories and formulas are publicized and it predicts the total man-hour required for software system development. This model is publicized in "Software Engineering Economics" written by Professor Barry Boehm of the U.S., and is the most widely applied numerical formula-based estimation model. This study is conducted to provide a series of methods that are optimal for KTDS environment by choosing COCOMO II model among various types of COCOMO models. In establishing implementation plan, COCOMO II model alone is not sufficient, it is necessary to link with and apply standard WBS system and standard man-hour. In establishing specific implementation plan, phased standard WBS system in order of the first phase of all the activities implemented in the project, Activity, Task, and Role, and the man-hour put into this should be distributed according to standard ratio from COCOMO II model's total man-hour. This study provides explainations by establishing standard WBS system and linking with COCOMO II model.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
• /
• v.9 no.2
• /
• pp.170-181
• /
• 2008

Cost of construction project have to be estimated based on drawing before execution. Cost estimate and check would be performed numerously for preparing general outline of requirements and determining the budget at conceptual planning stage, for obtaining decision on every matter related to design, specification, construction and cost at design stage, and for predicting bidding cost. Thus, importance of cost estimation cannot emphasize too much in construction. However, there are lack of standard estimation method, process, and cost analysis method, that square foot estimation method is as used as eyer, in Korea. Thus, This research present the direction for improving cost estimation and management in construction; It is demanded that establishing standard data base methodology, multi-level database model CUBE, and standard cost planning process, choosing cost estimation methodology according to objectives and cost planning process, and making more experts.

• Proceedings of the Korea Inteligent Information System Society Conference
• /
• 2001.01a
• /
• pp.133-141
• /
• 2001

Since the computing environment changes very rapidly, the estimation of software effort is very difficult because it is not easy to collect a sufficient number of relevant cases from the historical data. If we pinpoint the cases, the number of cases becomes too small. However is we adopt too many cases, the relevance declines. So in this paper we attempt to balance the number of cases and relevance. Since many researches on software effort estimation showed that the neural network models perform at least as well as the other approaches, so we selected the neural network model as the basic estimator. We propose a search method that finds the right level of relevant cases for the neural network model. For the selected case set. eliminating the qualitative input factors with the same values can reduce the scale of the neural network model. Since there exists a multitude of combinations of case sets, we need to search for the optimal reduced neural network model and corresponding case, set. To find the quasi-optimal model from the hierarchy of reduced neural network models, we adopted the beam search technique and devised the Case-Set Selection Algorithm. This algorithm can be adopted in the case-adaptive software effort estimation systems.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
• /
• autumn
• /
• pp.531-534
• /
• 2001

At the beginning of construction, the estimation for the construction duration is very important to effectively control and use labors, builder's equipment, permanent and temporary materials, supplies and utilities, and money. In spite of the importance of the estimation for the construction duration, there is no estimation standard of optimal construction duration in korea. The purpose of this study is to suggest the estimation standard of optimal construction duration that is reasonable and systematical through developing the method for estimating, the construction duration. it is expected to be helpful for estimating, planning and scheduling. The analysis is executed the existing estimation standards and consulting the results of the interviews with the on-site engineers and the concrete compressive stress tests.

• Information Systems Review
• /
• v.2 no.1
• /
• pp.71-84
• /
• 2000

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
• /
• v.38 no.1
• /
• pp.201-216
• /
• 2013

Diffusion is a basic mathematical tool for modern financial engineering. The theory of the estimation methods for diffusion models is an important topic of the financial engineering. Many researches have been tried to apply the likelihood estimation method for estimating diffusion models. However, the likelihood estimation method for diffusion is complicated and needs much amount of computing. In this paper we develop the estimation methods which are simple enough to be compared to the Euler approximation method, and efficient enough statistically to be compared to the likelihood estimation method. We devise pseudo-likelihood and propose the maximum pseudo-likelihood estimation methods. The pseudo-likelihoods are obtained by approximating the transition density with normal distributions. The means and the variances of the distributions are obtained from the delta expansion suggested by Lee, Song and Lee (2012). We compare the newly suggested estimators with other existing estimators by simulation study. From the simulation study we find the maximum pseudo-likelihood estimator has very similar properties with the maximum likelihood estimator. Also the maximum pseudo-likelihood estimator is easy to apply to general diffusion models, and can be obtained by simple numerical steps.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 2007.02a
• /
• pp.125-129
• /
• 2007

In this paper, a PMS(Pavement Management System) application is presented to control the LCC(Life Cycle Cost) of road pavement. The aim of this paper is to provide the decision makers with the planning information regarding maintenance strategies for efficient road pavement management. The validity of PMS application presented in this paper is investigated through case studies for conducted for 22 national highway road sections in Korea.