• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제32권1호
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• pp.130-136
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• 2009

Estimation of mortality behavior of a industrial property are useful for calculating depreciation and making management decisions relating to property. The common methods of computing depreciation require an estimation of service life, and some methods may require an estimate of life expectancy. Estimation of service life and life expectancy can be computed from a smoothed and extended life table of original life tables developed through life analysis techniques. Several actuarial techniques are available to construct a life table for depreciation application. Of these methods, the graphic approach and graduation by mathematical formula are the most widely used in the field of depreciation. A commonly used technique of smoothing and of extending the life table is to fit a lows type survivor curves to the observed retirement rate by the least square method. In this paper, estimates of depreciation rate based on directly observed data of the domestic petrochemical equipments are presented.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제43권1호
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• pp.57-66
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• 2015

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to apply the constrained Bayesian estimation methodology for product quality control process and prove the effectiveness of the product management by comparing with the well-known Bayes estimator through data performance result. Methods: The Bayes and constrained Bayes estimators were produced based on the theoretical background and for confirming the effectiveness of suggested application, the deviation index was defined and calculated for the comparison. Results: The statistical analysis result shows that applying the suggested estimation methodology, that is, constrained Bayes estimator improves the effectiveness of the index with regard to reduce the error by matching the first two empirical moments. Conclusion: Considering the advanced Bayesian approaches such as constrained Bayes estimation for the product quality control process, the newly defined deviation index reduces the error for estimating the parameter histogram which is reflected both location and deviation parameters and furthermore various Bayesian perspective approaches seems to be meaningful for managing the product quality control process.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제38권4호
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• pp.480-490
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• 2010

In this paper, two estimation methods(least square estimation and maximum likelihood estimation) were compared for Weibull distribution and Type I censoring. Data obtained by Monte Carlo simulation were analyzed using two estimation methods and analysis results were compared by MSE(Mean Squared Error). Comparison results show that maximum likelihood estimator is better for censored data and complete data with more than 30 samples and least square estimator is better for small size complete data(less than and equal to 20 samples).

• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.147-152
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• 2010

Project implementation plan is a blueprint that confirms project performance activities and specifies required man-hour, period and resource imput ratio. Various figures, the results of implementation plan, are predicted through estimation, and because of superiority of objectivity and repeatability, numerical formula-based estimation model is often used overseas. COCOMO model is the representative estimation model whose theories and formulas are publicized and it predicts the total man-hour required for software system development. This model is publicized in "Software Engineering Economics" written by Professor Barry Boehm of the U.S., and is the most widely applied numerical formula-based estimation model. This study is conducted to provide a series of methods that are optimal for KTDS environment by choosing COCOMO II model among various types of COCOMO models. In establishing implementation plan, COCOMO II model alone is not sufficient, it is necessary to link with and apply standard WBS system and standard man-hour. In establishing specific implementation plan, phased standard WBS system in order of the first phase of all the activities implemented in the project, Activity, Task, and Role, and the man-hour put into this should be distributed according to standard ratio from COCOMO II model's total man-hour. This study provides explainations by establishing standard WBS system and linking with COCOMO II model.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제9권2호
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• pp.170-181
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• 2008

건설 프로젝트는 생산과정 이전에 설계도면을 바탕으로 예상되는 비용이 산정되며, 기획단계는 소요예산을 책정하고 설계단계는 예산에 합당한 효율적 대안을 찾으며, 정확한 입찰금액을 예측하기 위해 수차례 이루어진다. 특히, 물량산출 이전까지 예측되는 공사비의 정확도와 신뢰도는 매우 중요하다. 그러나, 국내의 경우 면적당 단가 방식 공사비 예측을 벗어나지 못할 뿐 아니라, 단계별 예측방법, 프로세스, 데이터 분석 및 관리기술 등이 표준화되어 체계적이고 종합적으로 관리되지 못하고 있다. 이에 국내 공사비 예측기술 및 관리기술 발전을 위하여 첫째, 표준화된 공사비 데이터베이스 구축과 국가차원의 종합적 관리가 필요하며, 구축 방법으로 다차원 공사비 데이터베이스 개념모델 CUBE를 제시하였다. 둘째 단계별 공사비 예측의 목적에 맞는 코스트 모델 적용이 필요하며, 코스트 모델의 방법론을 기획단계와 설계단계로 구분하여 제시하였다. 셋째, 이러한 두 가지 코스트 모델을 적용한 코스트 플래닝 프로세스를 제시하였고, 넷째, 공사비 예측 및 관리 전문인력 양성의 필요성을 제시하였다.

• 한국지능정보시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지능정보시스템학회 2001년도 The Pacific Aisan Confrence On Intelligent Systems 2001
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• pp.133-141
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• 2001

Since the computing environment changes very rapidly, the estimation of software effort is very difficult because it is not easy to collect a sufficient number of relevant cases from the historical data. If we pinpoint the cases, the number of cases becomes too small. However is we adopt too many cases, the relevance declines. So in this paper we attempt to balance the number of cases and relevance. Since many researches on software effort estimation showed that the neural network models perform at least as well as the other approaches, so we selected the neural network model as the basic estimator. We propose a search method that finds the right level of relevant cases for the neural network model. For the selected case set. eliminating the qualitative input factors with the same values can reduce the scale of the neural network model. Since there exists a multitude of combinations of case sets, we need to search for the optimal reduced neural network model and corresponding case, set. To find the quasi-optimal model from the hierarchy of reduced neural network models, we adopted the beam search technique and devised the Case-Set Selection Algorithm. This algorithm can be adopted in the case-adaptive software effort estimation systems.

• 한국건설관리학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건설관리학회 2001년도 학술대회지
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• pp.531-534
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• 2001

프로젝트 초기단계에 공기산정이 적절히 이루어져야만 프로젝트 진행과정에서 인력, 자재, 장비 등을 효율적으로 이용할 수 있으며 자금을 적절하게 배분할 수 있다. 그러나 아직 국내에서는 기준으로 삼을 만한 공기산정 기준이 없는 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 현재의 불명확한 공기산정방식을 개선함으로써 프로젝트 초기단계에서 적정공기를 예측하고 타당한 공정계획을 수립할 수 있도록 합리적이고 체계적인 공기 산정기준을 제시하고자 한다. 이를 위하여 본 연구에서는 기존 산정기준의 비교 분석을 통하여 개선방향을 도출하고, 현장기술자들과의 면담조사, 현장실험, 기존 연구자료 등을 활용하여 적정공기 산정기준을 제시하였다.

• 경영정보학연구
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• 제2권1호
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• pp.71-84
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• 2000

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제38권1호
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• pp.201-216
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• 2013

Diffusion is a basic mathematical tool for modern financial engineering. The theory of the estimation methods for diffusion models is an important topic of the financial engineering. Many researches have been tried to apply the likelihood estimation method for estimating diffusion models. However, the likelihood estimation method for diffusion is complicated and needs much amount of computing. In this paper we develop the estimation methods which are simple enough to be compared to the Euler approximation method, and efficient enough statistically to be compared to the likelihood estimation method. We devise pseudo-likelihood and propose the maximum pseudo-likelihood estimation methods. The pseudo-likelihoods are obtained by approximating the transition density with normal distributions. The means and the variances of the distributions are obtained from the delta expansion suggested by Lee, Song and Lee (2012). We compare the newly suggested estimators with other existing estimators by simulation study. From the simulation study we find the maximum pseudo-likelihood estimator has very similar properties with the maximum likelihood estimator. Also the maximum pseudo-likelihood estimator is easy to apply to general diffusion models, and can be obtained by simple numerical steps.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국방재학회 2007년도 정기총회 및 학술발표대회
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• pp.125-129
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• 2007

In this paper, a PMS(Pavement Management System) application is presented to control the LCC(Life Cycle Cost) of road pavement. The aim of this paper is to provide the decision makers with the planning information regarding maintenance strategies for efficient road pavement management. The validity of PMS application presented in this paper is investigated through case studies for conducted for 22 national highway road sections in Korea.