• Title/Summary/Keyword: loss probability

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A Study of Investment effectiveness about Equity Linked Securities(ELS) ; focused on Step-down type ELS (주가연계증권(ELS)의 투자효과에 관한 연구 : 스텝다운형 ELS를 중심으로)

  • Jung, Heeseog;Kim, Sunje
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.103-122
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to present the direction of ELS investment by analyzing the actual investment return of the ELS commodities and analyzing the investment effect of ELS that investors have felt unsatisfactory at financial marketing service. The research method is based on the step-down type ELS. We calculated the probability of achieving early redemption condition and maturity repayment condition, early redemption estimated yield, and maturity repayment estimated yield. As the study result, the probability of achieving 100% of the early redemption condition was 74.5%, and the probability of the early redemption condition 95% was 83.0%, 90% was 89.5%, 85% was 92.5%, and 80% was 96.5% respectively. In the case of the lowest 75%, the probability of holding to maturity is analyzed to be 2.5%, and the probability of early redemption is high. The probability of the stock price growth within 65% of the maturity repayment condition was 98.5% and the probability of the stock price growth within 60%~45% of the maturity repayment condition was 100%. 65% of maturity repayment condition was analyzed as 1.5% risk of principal loss, and the probability of achieving the committed yield of maturity was high. As a key measure of ELS investment, it is advantageous to select a commodity with a low rate of maturity repayment and a high rate of early redemption.

Prediction of Jacking Force Loss for Serviced High Speed Railway PSC BOX Bridge Using Constant Deflection (상시처짐을 이용한 공용중인 고속철도 PSC BOX교의 긴장력 손실 예측)

  • Jung-Youl Choi;Tae-Keun Kim;Jee-Seung Chung
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.549-555
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    • 2023
  • Jacking force loss management inside the PSC Box girder of a common high-speed railway is a very important feature in girder performance, and requires detailed management during the maintenance of the girder. This study aimed to analyze the timing of re-tension prediction of PSC Box girder based on the reduction level of the packing force inside the girder and the results of the tension loss measured without the train load test. As a result of predicting the timing of re-tension according to the level of tension reduction of the PSC Box Girder, the Jacking Force Loss curve was gently analyzed before the structure reached 17 years after confirmed completion, and 17 years later, it was found that the jacking force loss curve progressed rapidly. The results confirmed that the tension of the structure decreases with the service life increase, but considerably decreases as the structure ages. Therefore, more data and research on tension loss of facilities over 20 years are much required.

A Bayes Rule for Determining the Number of Common Factors in Oblique Factor Model

  • Kim, Hea-Jung
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.95-108
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    • 2000
  • Consider the oblique factor model X=Af+$\varepsilon$, with defining relation $\Sigma$$\Phi$Λ'+Ψ. This paper is concerned with suggesting an optimal Bayes criterion for determining the number of factors in the model, i.e. dimension of the vector f. The use of marginal likelihood as a method for calculating posterior probability of each model with given dimension is developed under a generalized conjugate prior. Then based on an appropriate loss function, a Bayes rule is developed by use of the posterior probabilities. It is shown that the approach is straightforward to specify distributionally and to imploement computationally, with output readily adopted for constructing required cirterion.

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PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF AAL MULTIPLEXER WITH CBR TRAFFIC AND BURSTY TRAFFIC

  • Park, Chul-Geun;Han, Dong-Hwan
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.81-95
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    • 2001
  • This paper models and evaluates the AAL multiplexer to analyze AAL protocol in ATM networks. We consider an AAL multiplexer in which a single periodically determinsitic CBR traffic stream and several variable size bursty background traffic streams are multiplexed and one ATM cell stream goes out. We model the AAL multiplexer as a B/sup X/ + D/D/1/K queue and analyze this queueing system. We represent various performance measures such as loss probability and waiting time in the basis of cell and packet.

DISCRETE-TIME ANALYSIS OF OVERLOAD CONTROL FOR BURSTY TRAFFIC

  • Choi, Doo-Il
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.285-295
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    • 2001
  • We consider a queueing system under overload control to support bursty traffic. The queueing system under overload control is modelled by MMBP/D1/K queue with two thresholds on buffer. Arrival of customer is assumed to be a Markov-modulated Bernoulli process (MMBP) by considering burstiness of traffic. Analysis is done in discrete-time case. Using the generating function method, we obtain the stationary queue length distribution. Finally, the loss probability and the waiting time distribution of a customer are given.

MAP/G/1/K QUEUE WITH MULTIPLE THRESHOLDS ON BUFFER

  • Choi, Doo-Il
    • Communications of the Korean Mathematical Society
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.611-625
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    • 1999
  • We consider ΜΑΡ/G/ 1 finite capacity queue with mul-tiple thresholds on buffer. The arrival of customers follows a Markov-ian arrival process(MAP). The service time of a customer depends on the queue length at service initiation of the customer. By using the embeded Markov chain method and the supplementary variable method, we obtain the queue length distribution ar departure epochs and at arbitrary epochs. This gives the loss probability and the mean waiting time by Little's law. We also give a simple numerical examples to apply the overload control in packetized networks.

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A Study on the Probabilistic Generation Simulation by FHT (Fast hartley Transform을 이용한 확률론적 발전시뮬레이션에 관한 연구)

  • Song, Kil-Yeoung;Kim, Yong-Ha;Choi, Jae-Seok
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1988.11a
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    • pp.131-134
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    • 1988
  • This Paper describes a algorithm for evaluating the loss of load probability of a generating system using Fast Hartley Transform. The Fast Hartley Transform(FHT) Is as fast as or faster than the Fast Fourier Transform(FHT) and serves for all the uses such as spectral, digital processing and convolution to which the FFT is at present applied. The method has been tested by applying to IEEE reliability test system and the effectiveness is demonstrated.

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Minimum risk point estimation of two-stage procedure for mean

  • Choi, Ki-Heon
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.887-894
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    • 2009
  • The two-stage minimum risk point estimation of mean, the probability of success in a sequence of Bernoulli trials, is considered for the case where loss is taken to be symmetrized relative squared error of estimation, plus a fixed cost per observation. First order asymptotic expansions are obtained for large sample properties of two-stage procedure. Monte Carlo simulation is carried out to obtain the expected sample size that minimizes the risk and to examine its finite sample behavior.

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Modeling for Efficient QoS support in wireless Networks (무선 네트웍에서의 효율적인 QoS제공을 위한 모델링)

  • 이성협;염익준
    • Proceedings of the IEEK Conference
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    • 2001.06a
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    • pp.249-252
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    • 2001
  • This paper focuses on the consideration of not only QoS parameters in wired network, but also QoS parameters in wireless network that supported for the Efficient QoS in the Al1 Service Levels. So, We supposed the "Efficient QoS Model" that guaranteed the QoS parameters "Loss Profile" , "Service Degradation" , "Latency and Jittering" , "Mobility of Mobile User" , "Probability of seamless communication" in wired-wireless networks. And the Method of Efficient QoS support that we supposed consists of "Multicast Routing-RSVP Protocol architecture based on Mobile IP" and "Protocols internetworking model ".

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Maximum a posteriori CFAR for weibull clutter (Weibull clutter 에 대한 최대사후확률 일정오경보수신기)

  • Yu, Kung-T.;Seo, Jin-H.
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1995.11a
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    • pp.146-148
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    • 1995
  • A CFAR algorithm for weibull clutter is discussed. The Maximum a posteriori(MAP) estimator for two parameters(skewness and scale) of the weibull clutter is proposed, assuming the probability density function of skewness parameter is known. And proposed MAP estimator is compared with the Maximum likelihood(ML) estimator. Using this MAP estimator, we can design CFAR detector which is shown to have smaller CFAR loss than ML CFAR detector by the statistical simulation method.

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