• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• 제24권4호
• /
• pp.325-337
• /
• 2017

In this paper, we proposed a new long-term lifetime distribution with four parameters inserted in a risk competitive scenario with decreasing, increasing and unimodal hazard rate functions, namely the Weibull-Poisson long-term distribution. This new distribution arises from a scenario of competitive latent risk, in which the lifetime associated to the particular risk is not observable, and where only the minimum lifetime value among all risks is noticed in a long-term context. However, it can also be used in any other situation as long as it fits the data well. The Weibull-Poisson long-term distribution is presented as a particular case for the new exponential-Poisson long-term distribution and Weibull long-term distribution. The properties of the proposed distribution were discussed, including its probability density, survival and hazard functions and explicit algebraic formulas for its order statistics. Assuming censored data, we considered the maximum likelihood approach for parameter estimation. For different parameter settings, sample sizes, and censoring percentages various simulation studies were performed to study the mean square error of the maximum likelihood estimative, and compare the performance of the model proposed with the particular cases. The selection criteria Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criterion, and likelihood ratio test were used for the model selection. The relevance of the approach was illustrated on two real datasets of where the new model was compared with its particular cases observing its potential and competitiveness.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제8권2호
• /
• pp.771-781
• /
• 2021

The purpose of this study is to identify major drivers of Myanmar's long-term economic growth and draw implications to implement development policies. This study investigated Myanmar, as the country is the most recently opened economy in Southeast Asia. This study conducted simulation analysis based on scenarios by applying World Bank's Long-Term Growth Model, Penn World Table 9.1, and World Development Indicator data. This study makes extensive use of LTGM and the LTGM-TFP extension to improve the validity of models for data calibration. This study confirms the validity of the model with data calibration and specifies scenarios for simulation analyses by setting the growth trajectory of Vietnam due to common geographical, political, and economic conditions. Main findings include that Myanmar's economic growth rate will continue to fall below 3% in 2040 without proper improvement of growth drivers. The results of this study also provide that total factor productivity growth and female labor participation are key factors for Myanmar's long-term economic growth. This study advises policymakers in Myanmar to strengthen human capital, which is crucial for total factor productivity growth in Myanmar's context and directly affects economic growth. Further, labor market policies to promote female labor participation is important to sustain economic growth.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• 제28권4호
• /
• pp.393-410
• /
• 2021

The Korean Long-Term Care Insurance (K-LTCI) provides financial support for long-term care service to people who need various types of assistance with daily activities. As the number of elderly people in Korea is expected to increase in the future, the demand for long-term care insurance would also increase over time. Projection of future expenditure on K-LTCI depends on the number of beneficiaries within the grading system of K-LTCI based on the test scores of applicants. This study investigated the suitability of mixture distributions to the model K-LTCI score distribution using recent empirical data on K-LTCI, provided by the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS). Based on the developed mixture models, the number of beneficiaries in each grade and its variability under the current grading system were estimated by simulation. It was observed that a mixture model is suitable for K-LTCI score distribution and may prove useful in devising a funding plan for K-LTCI benefit payment and investigating the effects of any possible revision in the K-LTCI grading system.

• 전기학회논문지
• /
• 제67권4호
• /
• pp.505-511
• /
• 2018

Long term capacity expansion planning has to be carried out to satisfy pre-defined system reliability criterion. For purpose of assessing system reliability, probabilistic simulation technique has been widely adopted. However, the way how to approximate generator outage, especially maintenance outage, in probabilistic simulation scheme can significantly influence on reliability assessment. Therefore, in this paper, 3 different maintenance approximation methods are applied to investigate the quantitative impact of maintenance approximation method on long term capacity expansion planning.

• Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
• /
• 제2권4호
• /
• pp.317-323
• /
• 2015

본 연구는 장기하상변동 모의를 이용하여 댐 하류 하천에서의 하상변동이 어류 물리서식처에 미치는 영향에 대하여 연구하였다. 이를 위하여 흐름모형은 준정류 모형을 이용하였으며, 서식처 모형은 서식처 적합도 지수 (HSI) 모형을 이용하였다. 장기하상변동 모의를 위하여 Exner 방정식을 이용하였으며 하상재료 입도분포의 변화를 고려하였다. 내성천 영주댐 하류에서 모의결과 침식과 장갑화가 진행되었으며 이에 따라 피라미의 물리서식처가 변하게 되었다. 지형과 하상재료의 변화가 어류 물리서식처에 영향을 끼치는 것을 확인할 수 있다.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
• /
• 제23권1호
• /
• pp.11-21
• /
• 1990

This study refers to the problem of long-term inpatient flow in a general hospital. In this study, a queueing simulation model was developed for the two departments in the hospital with a homogeneous case mix and relatively many long-term inpatients in order to increase the turnover rate and hospital charges. Before the simulation n, the model was verified by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The following results were generated by three alternative models of the special bed policies. 1. Alternative I : When long term inpatients were admitted to the wards belonging to departments A and B without transfer to other departments and special beds, the average turn-over rate decreased by 2-4% and the average hospital charges decreased by 70 million won. 2. Alternative II : When long-term inpatients were transferred to department C but the transfer of wards was determined by department C in order of clinical need, the average turnover rate increased by 4-13% but the average hospital charges decreased by 30 million won. This result was not greatly different from the present state. 3. Alternative III : When long-term inpatients were transferred to the special wards and department C simultaneously, the increase in the average turnover rate and hospital charges was equivalent to the increase of two beds in the special wards. When the special wards were allocated 16 beds, the average turnover rate of departments A and B increased by about 55% and 20% respectively. Also, the hospital charges increased by about 0.44 billion won. As a result, transfer to department C and the use of 16 beds in the special wards for long-term inpatients of departments A and B is expected to maximize the hospital revenue. However, as the above special bed policy can not increase the turnover rate above 60%, there is a need for a more comprehensive policy to further increase the rate. The development of an elaborate model should include the number of long-term inpatients in all clinical departments, the special wards system or an increase of hospital beds to handle admission needs, and the resources of the hospital by department. When the alternatives are evaluated, a cost-benefit analysis in addition to the turnover rate and the hospital charges should be considered.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 제어로봇시스템학회 1993년도 한국자동제어학술회의논문집(국내학술편); Seoul National University, Seoul; 20-22 Oct. 1993
• /
• pp.398-403
• /
• 1993

A rule based fuzzy expert system to self-tune PID controllers is proposed in this paper. The proposed expert system contains two rule bases, where one is responsible for "Long term tuning" and the other for "Incremental tuning". The rule for "Long term tuning" are extracted from the Wills'map and the knowledge about the implicit relations between PID gains and important long term features of the output response such as overshoot, damping and rise time, etc., while 'Incremental tuning" rules are obtained from the relations between PID gains and short term features, error and change in error. In the PID control environment, the proposed expert system operates in two phases sequentially. In the first phase, the long term tuning is performed until long term features meet their desired values approximately. Then the incremental tuning tarts with PID gains provided by the long term tuning procedure. It is noticeable that the final PID gains obtained in the incremental tuning phase are only the temporal ones. Simulation results show that the proposed rule base for "Long term tuning" provides superior control performance to that of Litt and that further improvement of control performance is obtained by the "Incremental tuning'.ance is obtained by the "Incremental tuning'.ing'.

• 전기학회논문지
• /
• 제66권12호
• /
• pp.1712-1720
• /
• 2017

In South Korea, minimum reserve rate, which is to satisfy reliability standard, has been determined by simulation result using WASP. But, it is still controversial whether the level of minimum reserve rate is adequate. Thus, in this study, various analyses of minimum reserve rate are being conducted. WASP uses the probabilistic simulation technique to evaluate whether reliability standard is satisfied. In this process, forced outage rate and maintenance periods of each generator play important roles. Especially, the long-term plan can be varied depending on how maintenance periods deal with. In order to model maintenance periods in the probabilistic simulation technique, WASP uses derating method. However, broad analyses have to be conducted because there are various ways including derating method to model maintenance periods which result in different results. Therefore, in this paper, 3 different maintenance outage rate modeling methods are applied to arbitrarily modeled system based on the basic plan for long-term electricity supply and demand of South Korea. Results show impact of each modeling method on minimum reserve rate.

• 한국통신학회논문지
• /
• 제19권8호
• /
• pp.1493-1502
• /
• 1994

본 논문에서는 순시 페이딩과 장구간 페이딩의 혼합인 Suzuki 페이딩 정확히 모사하는 새로운 광대역 채널 시뮬레이션 알고리즘을 제안한다. 제안된 알고리즘은 수신된 반사파들을 Suzuki 분포를 갖는 랜덤 신호로 발생시키며, Gaussian 분포로부터 대수정규 분포로의 변환을 이용함으로써 반사파들의 장구간 페이딩 성분들 사이의 상관 관계를 임의로 조정할 수 있다. 제안된 알고리즘은 시스템의 성능을 시뮬레이션하는 데 적용될 수 있다.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
• /
• 제52권6호
• /
• pp.307-315
• /
• 2003

This paper proposes a novel simulation method of WPGS (Wind Power Generation System). The rotation speed control method of turbine under variable wind speed using the pitch control is proposed. Moreover, when wind speed exceeds the cut-out wind speed, the turbine will be stopped by controlling pitch angle to 90$^{\circ}$, otherwise it will be controlled to steady-state operation. For the purpose of effective simulation, the SWRW (Simulation method for WPGS using Real Weather condition) is used for the utility interactive WPGS simulation in this paper, in which those of three topics for the WPGS simulation: user-friendly method, applicability to grid-connection and the utilization of the real weather conditions, are satisfied. It is impossible to consider the real weather conditions in the WPGS simulation using the EMTP type of simulators and PSPICE, etc. External parameter of the real weather conditions is necessary to ensure the simulation accuracy. The simulation of the WPGS using the real weather conditions including components modeling of wind turbine system is achieved by introducing the interface method of a non-linear external parameter and FORTRAN using PSCAD/EMTDC in this paper. The simulation of long-term, short-term, over cut-out and under cut-out wind speeds will be peformed by the proposed simulation method effectively. The efficiency of wind power generator, power converter and flow of energy are analyzed by wind speed of the long-term simulation. The generator output and current supplied into utility can be obtained by the short-term simulation. Finally, transient-state of the WPGS can be analyzed by the simulation results of over cut-out and under cut-out wind speeds, respectively.