• Title/Summary/Keyword: logit model

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Modelling of Transfer Impedance of based an Express Bus Terminal use Behavior (고속버스터미널 이용자의 환승행태에 기반을 둔 환승저항 모형 구축 연구)

  • Kim, Hwang Bae;Kwon, Young Jong
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.2D
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    • pp.99-103
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    • 2010
  • It is necessary to improve transfer impedance of express bus terminal users in order to increase the usage of public transportation. This study constructed a model for calculating transfer impedance based on bodily sensational transfer time in express bus terminal and calculated transfer impedance on major express bus terminals in Korea. The study results show that the addition of 100 meter exterior walking distance increases 3 minute travel time, 100 meter interior walking distance increases 5 minute travel time, 100 stairways increase 13 minute travel time, and escalators decreases 3 minute travel time. The calculated transfer impedance based on bodily sensational transfer time in this study can be utilized as objective criteria to compare transfer conditions of different bus terminals and to prioritize them for facility improvement. The calculated transfer impedance also can be used as facility guidelines for designing a new transit center.

Modelling of Transfer Impedance of Urban Rail Station (도시철도역사의 환승저항 모형 구축 연구)

  • Kim, Hwang Bae;Choi, Jin Hee
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.1D
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    • pp.11-15
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    • 2010
  • It is necessary to improve transfer impedance of Urban Rail Station station users in order to increase the usage of public transportation. This study constructed a model for calculating transfer impedance based on bodily sensational transfer time in Urban Rail Station stations and calculated transfer impedance on major Urban Rail Station stations in Korea. The study results show that the addition of 100 meter exterior walking distance increases 2 minute travel time, 100 meter interior walking distance increases 3 minute travel time, 100 stairways increase 4 minute travel time, and escalators decreases 1 minute travel time. The calculated transfer impedance based on bodily sensational transfer time in this study can be utilized as objective criteria to compare transfer conditions of different Urban Rail Station stations and to prioritize them for facility improvement. The calculated transfer impedance also can be used as facility guidelines for designing a new transit center.

Drivers Detour Decision Factor Analysis with Combined Method of Decision Tree and Neural Network Algorithm (의사결정나무와 신경망 모형 결합에 의한 운전자 우회결정요인 분석)

  • Kang, Jin-Woong;Kum, Ki-Jung;Son, Seung-Neo
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.167-176
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    • 2011
  • This study's purpose is to analyse factors of determination about detouring for makinga standard model in regard of unfavorableness and uncertainty when unspecified individual recipients make a decision at the time of course detour. In order to achieve this, we surveyed SP investigation whether making a detour or not for drivers as a target who take a high way and National highway. Based on this result, we analysed detour determination factors of drivers, establishing a combination model of Decision Tree and Neural Network model. The result demonstrates the effected factors on drivers' detour determination are in ordering of the recognition of alternative routevs, reliable and frequency of using traffic information, frequency of transition routes and age. Moreover, from the outcome in comparison with an existing model and prediction through undistributed data, the rate of combination model 8.7% illustrates the most predictable way in contrast with logit model 12.8%, and Individual Model of Decision Tree 13.8% which are existed. This reveals that the analysis of drivers' detour determination factors is valid to apply. Hence, overall study considers as a practical foundation to make effective detour strategies for increasing the utility of route networking and dispersion in the volume of traffic from now on.

Prediction of Estimated Sales Amount through New Open of Department Store (대형백화점의 신규출점에 따른 예상매출액 추정)

  • Park, Chul-ju;Ko, Youn-bae;Youn, Myoung-kil;Kim, Won-kyum
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.5-20
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    • 2006
  • Retail is called location business because it is one of the most important factors to estimate management of stores for retailers who are going to sell products directly to customers. Retailers' management achievements are shown in sale in general. Therefore, retailers tend to focus on ways to increase the numbers of customers in order to raise sales. First of all, in this research, I am going to examine the most fundamental models such as Reilly's retail gravitation, converse model, huff probability model and multiful losit model in selecting stores. Secondly, I am going to provide the process and analyzing ways to predict estimated sales amount with the previous theory model. Also I am going to predict estimated sales amount of the department store L which is located in D metorpolitan city. Lastly, I am going to argue about the problem of this research and the next research subject. Our main goal is to provide ways to complement and inspect sales estimation models, which can be used in fields after taking characters of high class structure of Korea into consideration on the base of previous researches. According to the result of the research, my conclusion is that if the process of analysis and changing factors are complemented, revise model, which can reflect reality of Korea, will be provided. Therefore, in the future study, we have to build up theory models to suit for our retail market through critic reviews about the existing high class structure of Korea.

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A User Optimer Traffic Assignment Model Reflecting Route Perceived Cost (경로인지비용을 반영한 사용자최적통행배정모형)

  • Lee, Mi-Yeong;Baek, Nam-Cheol;Mun, Byeong-Seop;Gang, Won-Ui
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.117-130
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    • 2005
  • In both deteministic user Optimal Traffic Assignment Model (UOTAM) and stochastic UOTAM, travel time, which is a major ccriterion for traffic loading over transportation network, is defined by the sum of link travel time and turn delay at intersections. In this assignment method, drivers actual route perception processes and choice behaviors, which can become main explanatory factors, are not sufficiently considered: therefore may result in biased traffic loading. Even though there have been some efforts in Stochastic UOTAM for reflecting drivers' route perception cost by assuming cumulative distribution function of link travel time, it has not been fundamental fruitions, but some trials based on the unreasonable assumptions of Probit model of truncated travel time distribution function and Logit model of independency of inter-link congestion. The critical reason why deterministic UOTAM have not been able to reflect route perception cost is that the route perception cost has each different value according to each origin, destination, and path connection the origin and destination. Therefore in order to find the optimum route between OD pair, route enumeration problem that all routes connecting an OD pair must be compared is encountered, and it is the critical reason causing computational failure because uncountable number of path may be enumerated as the scale of transportation network become bigger. The purpose of this study is to propose a method to enable UOTAM to reflect route perception cost without route enumeration between an O-D pair. For this purpose, this study defines a link as a least definition of path. Thus since each link can be treated as a path, in two links searching process of the link label based optimum path algorithm, the route enumeration between OD pair can be reduced the scale of finding optimum path to all links. The computational burden of this method is no more than link label based optimum path algorithm. Each different perception cost is embedded as a quantitative value generated by comparing the sub-path from the origin to the searching link and the searched link.

A Revenue Allocation Model for the Integrated Urban Rail System in the Seoul Metropolitan (수도권 도시철도 수입금 정산 분석모형)

  • Shin, Seong-Il;Noh, Hyun-Soo;Cho, Chong-Suk
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.5 s.83
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    • pp.157-167
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    • 2005
  • Seoul metropolitan public transport reform results in the introduction of the semi-public operation and distance-based fare policies. With implementation of these policies, public transport revenue allocation has been (will be) evolved very complicated because the existing revenue allocation issues have not only been clearly solved, which is generated by the combined relationship among Korea Railroad Corporation (KRC). Seoul Metropolitan Subway Corporation (SMSC). Seoul Metropolitan Rapid Transit Corporation (SMRTC), and Incheon Rapid Transit Corporation (IRTC), but also the revenue allocation problem between bus and urban railroad-related organizations need to be considered in this combined framework. On top of that. based on the future plans such as the private sector's railroad construction plan(s), the light rail transit construction plans of several local governments and the join of remained bus lines of Seoul metropolitan areas, it is understood that the revenue allocation among public transport operating organization will become one of main issues of operation organization as well as local and central governments. As a basic approach for revenue allocation of public transport operation organizations, the purpose of this paper is to propose an integrated model applicable to estimate degree of service contribution in passenger carriage in the combined public transport network. With a hypothesis that the complete electronic card system is deployed, this paper supposes every passenger's loading and alighting stations is recordable. Thereby, this paper limits research scope as to Seoul metropolitan railroad area since used route(s) between origin and destination stations can not be traceded because transfer stations each passenger path through is not recorded. Each model proposed in the paper is as follows: 1. a generalized cost reflecting passenger's transfer behavior; 2.a K path model for determining similar routes between O-D; 3.an assignment model for loading O-D trips onto the detected similar routes using Logit Model.

A Study about Internal Control Deficient Company Forecasting and Characteristics - Based on listed and unlisted companies - (내부통제 취약기업 예측과 특성에 관한 연구 - 상장기업군과 비상장기업군 중심으로 -)

  • Yoo, Kil-Hyun;Kim, Dae-Lyong
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.121-133
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    • 2017
  • The propose of study is to examine the characteristics of companies with high possibility to form an internal control weakness using forecasting model. This study use the actual listed/unlisted companies' data from K_financial institution. The first conclusion is that discriminant model is more valid than logit model to predict internal control weak companies. A discriminant model for predicting the vulnerability of internal control has high classification accuracy and has low the Type II error that is incorrectly classifying vulnerable companies to normal companies. The second conclusion is that the characteristic of weak internal control companies have a low credit rating, low asset soundness assessment, high delinquency rates, lower operating cash flow, high debt ratios, and minus operating profit to the net sales ratio. As not only a case of listed companies but unlisted companies which did not occur in previous studies are extended in this study, research results including the forecasting model can be used as a predictive tool of financial institutions predicting companies with high potential internal control weakness to prevent asset losses.

Option-type Default Forecasting Model of a Firm Incorporating Debt Structure, and Credit Risk (기업의 부채구조를 고려한 옵션형 기업부도예측모형과 신용리스크)

  • Won, Chae-Hwan;Choi, Jae-Gon
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.209-237
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    • 2006
  • Since previous default forecasting models for the firms evaluate the probability of default based upon the accounting data from book values, they cannot reflect the changes in markets sensitively and they seem to lack theoretical background. The market-information based models, however, not only make use of market data for the default prediction, but also have strong theoretical background like Black-Scholes (1973) option theory. So, many firms recently use such market based model as KMV to forecast their default probabilities and to manage their credit risks. Korean firms also widely use the KMV model in which default point is defined by liquid debt plus 50% of fixed debt. Since the debt structures between Korean and American firms are significantly different, Korean firms should carefully use KMV model. In this study, we empirically investigate the importance of debt structure. In particular, we find the following facts: First, in Korea, fixed debts are more important than liquid debts in accurate prediction of default. Second, the percentage of fixed debt must be less than 20% when default point is calculated for Korean firms, which is different from the KMV. These facts give Korean firms some valuable implication about default forecasting and management of credit risk.

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A Mode Choice Model with Market Segmentation of Beneficiary Group of New Transit Facility (신교통수단 수혜자의 시장분할을 고려한 수단선택 모형 개발)

  • Kim, Duck Nyung;Choi, A Reum;Hwang, Jae-Min;Kim, Dong-Kyu
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.667-677
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    • 2013
  • The introduction of a new transit facility affects mode share of travel alternatives. The multinomial logit model, which has been the most commonly used for estimating mode share, has difficulty in reflecting heterogeneity of travelers' choices, and it has a limitation on grasping their characteristics of mode choice. The limitation may lead to over- or under-estimation of the new transit facility and bring about significant social costs. This paper aims to find a methodology to overcome the problem of preference homogeneity. It also applies market segmentation structure of separating the whole population into direct and indirect beneficiary to consider their preference heterogeneity. A mode choice model is estimated on data from Jeju Province and statistically tested. The results show that mode transfer rate of direct beneficiaries that inhabit in downtown areas increases as the new transit facility provides more advanced services with higher costs. The results and the model suggested in this study can contribute to improving the accuracy of demand forecasting of new transit facilities by reflecting heterogeneity of mode-transfer patterns.

Social Risks of Self-Employed Women in Korea and the Legacy of East Asian Welfare Model Policy Logic (한국 여성 자영업자의 사회적 위험과 동아시아복지국가 정책 논리의 유산)

  • Ahn, Jong-soon
    • 한국사회정책
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.63-87
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    • 2017
  • Self-employed women are highly vulnerable to social risks like unemployment and poverty as job instability has increased in recent decades. Despite this, the Korean public policy focus has been on employees, not the self-employed. This may be closely linked to the legacy of the East Asian welfare model policy logic. Therefore, this study explores social risk levels by gender and employment status and examines the relation between social risks of self-employed women and the East Asian welfare model policy logic, through comparing-means analysis and ordered logit regression analysis using the 9th wave data of the Korea Welfare Panel Study Korea. The study yields evidence of divisions in social risk levels according to gender and employment status: that is, a gender difference, and a substantial gap between self-employed workers and regular employees. Furthermore, the findings of the study indicate that self-employed women — especially in small businesses — are more vulnerable to social risks than are self-employed men. This strongly supports the conclusion that the higher social risks of self-employed women in Korea are closely linked to the legacy of East Asian welfare model policy logic, which focuses on social protection for core workers and largely neglects women.