• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.17 no.12
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• pp.193-197
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• 2016

The performance of Precision Guided Missiles is estimated by using hit probability only, which is calculated by hits against total amounts of fires in current domestic live-fire tests. It has a limitation in judging the performance of all produced Precision Guided Missiles by using the calculated hit probability according to the result of live-fire test, because the overall characteristics of the produced Precision Guided Missiles are not considered. In other words, a method is needed to estimate the confidence level which is more reliable than simply calculated hit probability according to the result of live-fire test for guaranteeing the hit probability of Precision Guided Missiles by certain level, which is already being operated or produced. This paper introduces a method to estimate the confidence level of Precision Guided Missiles by minimum live-fire tests using Hypergeometric distribution and Bayes' rule suitable for the characteristics of Precision Guided Missiles, which are small production, high costs and unable to check whether the missile hits the target or not before the live-fire tests. Also, this paper suggests a reasonable confidence level for showing the performance of the Precision Guided Missiles using the results of live-fire tests and domestic and foreign literature, when the result of live-fire tests will be decided.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.879-888
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• 2018

Probability-based design codes have been developed to sufficiently confirm the safety level of structures. One of the most acceptable probability-based approaches is Load Resistance Factor Design (LRFD), which measures the safety level of the structures in terms of the reliability index. The main contribution of this paper is to calibrate the load and resistance factors of the design code for tunnels. The load and resistance factors are calculated using the available statistical models and probability-based procedures. The major steps include selection of representative structures, consideration of the limit state functions, calculation of reliability for the selected structures, selection of the target reliability index and calculation of load factors and resistance factors. The load and resistance models are reviewed. Statistical models of resistance (load carrying capacity) are summarized for strength limit state in bending, shear and compression. The reliability indices are calculated for several segments of a selected circular tunnel designed according to the tunnel manual report (Tunnel Manual). The novelty of this paper is the selection of the target reliability. In doing so, the uniform spectrum of reliability indices is proposed based on the probability paper. The final recommendation is proposed based on the closeness to the target reliability index.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.4 no.3
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• pp.299-324
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• 2013

The current research focuses on the seismic vulnerability assessment of typical Southern Europe buildings, based on processing of a large set of observational damage data. The presented study constitutes a sequel of a previous research. The damage statistics have been enriched and a wider damage database (178578 buildings) is created compared to the one of the first presented paper (73468 buildings) with Damage Probability Matrices (DPMs) after the elaboration of the results from post-earthquake surveys carried out in the area struck by the 7-9-1999 near field Athens earthquake. The dataset comprises buildings which developed damage in several degree, type and extent. Two different parameters are estimated for the description of the seismic demand. After the classification of damaged buildings into structural types they are further categorized according to the level of damage and macroseismic intensity. The relative and the cumulative frequencies of the different damage states, for each structural type and each intensity level, are computed and presented, in terms of damage ratio. Damage Probability Matrices (DPMs) are obtained for typical structural types and they are compared to existing matrices derived from regions with similar building stock and soil conditions. A procedure is presented for the classification of those buildings which initially could not be discriminated into structural types due to restricted information and hence they had been disregarded. New proportional DPMs are developed and a correlation analysis is fulfilled with the existing vulnerability relations.

• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.23-30
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• 2013

A dynamic analysis of random vibration processes is concerned with the first excursion probability based on first passage time during some specified lifetime or duration of the excitation. This study is concerned with the estimation of first-passage probability for hazard fluctuate wind velocity in the major cities reflecting the recent meteorological with largest data samples (yearly 2003-2012). The basic wind speeds were standardized homogeneously to the surface roughness category C, and to 10m above the ground surface. In this paper, the hazard fluctuate wind velocities are treated as a time-independent (stationary) random process and Gaussian random processes. The first excursion probability were calculated from Poisson model based on the independent event of level crossing & two-state Markov model based on the envelopes of level crossing.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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• v.23 no.7
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• pp.1807-1816
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• 1998

The interference probability between non-geostationary-statellite orbit mobile station is calculated when the two systems are sharing the frquency band below 1 GHz. The probability density function of a mobile earth station(MES) is calculated based on the established propagation model and then, a probability of exceeding the threshold level is derived. By changing the average transimission per unit time of total MSS(Moblie satellite service) area and the ratio of transmitters for specific area, we obtain the average transmission per unit time for the area under consideration. From this, the exceedance probability for the given pfd threshold level is evaluated. The exceedance probability is increased as the average transmissio per unit time and ratio become larger. Also the effect of filter isolation between channels is accounted for.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.35 no.5
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• pp.30-38
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• 2020

In order to construct a dam, the diversion facility such as cofferdam and a diversion tunnel should be installed in advance. And size of a cofferdam depends on type of a main dam. According to the Korea Dam Design Standard, if the main dam is a concrete dam, design flood of the cofferdam is 1~2 years flood frequency. This means that overflow of the cofferdam occurs one time for 1 or 2 years, therefore, stability of the cofferdam should be secured against any overflow problem. In this study, failure probability analysis for the concrete cofferdam is performed considering the overflow. First of all, limit state function of the concrete cofferdam is defined for overturning, sliding and base pressure, and upstream water levels are set as El. 501 m, El. 503 m, El. 505 m, El. 507 m. Also, after literature investigation research, probabilistic characteristics of various random variables are determined, the failure probability of the concrete cofferdam is calculated using the Monte Carlo Simulation. As a result of the analysis, when the upstream water level rises, it means overflow, the failure probability increases rapidly. In particular, the failure probability is largest in case of flood loading condition. It is considered that the high upstream water level causes increase of the upstream water pressure and the uplift pressure on the foundation. In addition, among the overturning, the sliding and the base pressure, the overturing is the major cause for the cofferdam failure considering the overflow.

• The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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• v.43 no.3
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• pp.285-292
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• 2024

When calculating sonar detection probability, underwater acoustic uncertainty is assumed to be normal distributed with a standard deviation of 8 dB to 9 dB. However, due to the variability in experimental areas and ocean environmental conditions, predicting detection performance requires accounting for underwater acoustic uncertainty based on ocean experimental data. In this study, underwater acoustic uncertainty was determined using measured mid-frequency (2.3 kHz, 3 kHz) noise level and transmission loss data collected in the shallow water of the East Sea. After calculating the predictable probability of detection reflecting underwater acoustic uncertainty based on ocean experimental data, we compared it with the conventional detection probability results, as well as the predictable probability of detection results considering the uncertainty of the Rayleigh distribution and a negatively skewed distribution. As a result, we confirmed that differences in the detection area occur depending on each underwater acoustic uncertainty.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.24-34
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• 2014

In order to manage essential parts that are required for the repairable parts services performed at the military maintenance depots, the United States Air Force developed the Repairability Forecasting Model (RFM). In the RFM, if the requirements of the parts are assumed to follow the normal probability distribution after applying means from the past data to the replacement rate and lead times, the chance of the AWP (Awaiting Parts) occurring is 50%. In this study, to counter the uncertainties of requirements and lead times from the RFM, the safety level concept is considered. To obtain the safety level for requirements, the binomial probability distribution is applied, while the safety level for lead time is obtained by applying the normal probability distribution. After adding this concept, the improved RFM is renamed as the ARFM (Advanced RFM), and by conducting the numerical stimulation, the effectiveness of the ARFM, minimizing the occurrence of the AWP, is shown by increasing the efficiency of the maintenance process and the operating rate of the weapon system.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.48 no.1
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• pp.33-41
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• 2011

For the assessment of ultimate longitudinal strengths of damaged hull girders, it is preliminarily necessary to determine the extents and locations of the damages due to severe accidents. This paper deals with the estimation of the damages from collisions and groundings of large-sized vessels where deterministic and probabilistic approaches are investigated. Deterministic damages estimated from MARPOL(or ICLL), ABS and DNV are compared with probabilistic damages from IMO guideline and some references including damage statistic data. Damages from MARPOL show largest one among all the investigated damage estimation, since it was developed not for the residual strength of hull girder but for the damage stability calculation. IMO guideline with high level probability of damage(eg. 95% probability level) also forecasts even severer damage extents than MARPOL. On the other hand, assuming average probability level of damage, the calculated damage sizes are around the one from deterministic approaches.

• Asian Spine Journal
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• v.12 no.6
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• pp.992-997
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• 2018

Study Design: Feasibility study. Purpose: To evaluate the feasibility of using serum pentosidine level as a potential marker for osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture (OVCF). Overview of Literature: A review of previous studies suggests a negative correlation between serum pentosidine concentration and bone strength. However, it is unclear whether serum pentosidine level might be a potential marker of OVCF in Koreans. Methods: Forty patients who underwent bone mineral density examination were included in this study, and their serum pentosidine levels were prospectively analyzed. Serum pentosidine level was evaluated using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Among all the patients, 11 with OVCF were assigned to the vertebral fracture group and 29 who did not have vertebral fracture were included in the non-fracture group. In addition, we used the Fracture Risk Assessment (FRAX) tool Korean version for assessing the 10-year probability of fracture. Results: There was a statistically significant difference in the mean serum pentosidine level (p=0.04) of the vertebral fracture group (110.8 ng/mL) and the non-fracture group (64.3 ng/mL). Logistic regression analyses showed that serum pentosidine was significantly associated with OVCF. The vertebral fracture group had significantly higher 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture as per FRAX than the non-fracture group. There was a positive correlation between pentosidine level and FRAX results (r=0.35, p=0.02). Conclusions: These results suggest that increased serum pentosidine level could be a potential marker for OVCF.