• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.89-95
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• 2019

This paper introduces the simulation concepts and technical approach of underwater weapon system performance analysis simulator, especially focused on probabilistic target detection concepts. We calculated the signal excess (SE) value using SONAR equation, then derived the probability density function(PDF) for target presence($H_1$) or absence($H_0$) cases, respectively. With the Neyman-Pearson detector criterion, we got the probability of detection($P_D$) while satisfying the given probability of false alarm($P_{FA}$). At every instance of simulation, target detection is decided in the probabilistic perspective. With the proposed detection implementation, we improved the model fidelity so that it could support the tactical decision during the operation.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.7
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• pp.543-554
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• 2018

A methodology has been presented for evaluating the partial safety factors on the sliding failure mode of vertical caissons of composite breakwaters and for determining the cross sections of those by Level I reliability-based design method. Especially, a mathematical model has been suggested for the sake of a consistency of code format as well as convenience of application in practical design, for which the uncertainties associated with buoyancy and its own weight can be taken into account straightforwardly. Furthermore, design criteria equation has been derived by considering accurately the effect of uplift pressure, so that the cross sections of caissons can be assessed which must be safe against the sliding failure. It has been found that cross sections estimated from partial safety factors proposed in this paper are in very good agreement with the results of Level II AFDA and Level III MCS under the same target probability of failure. However, partial safety factors of the Technical Standards and Commentaries for Port and Harbour Facilities in Japan and Coastal Engineering Manual in USA tend to estimate much bigger or smaller cross sections in comparison to the present results. Finally, many reliability re-analyses have been performed in order to conform whether the stability level of cross section estimated by Level I reliability-based design method is satisfied with the target probability of failure of partial safety factors or not.

• Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.54-59
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• 2003

The characteristics of the parameters for the probability distribution of fatigue crack growth life, using the non-Gaussian random process simulation method is investigated. In this paper, the material resistance to fatigue crack growth is treated as a spatial random process, which varies randomly on the crack surface. Using the previous experimental data, the crack length equals the number of cycle curves that are simulated. The results are obtained for constant stress intensity factor range conditions with stress ratios of R=0.2, three specimen thickness of 6, 12 and 18mm, and the four stress intensity level. The probability distribution function of fatigue crack growth life seems to follow the 3-parameter Wiubull,, showing a slight dependence on specimen thickness and stress intensity level. The shape parameter, $\alpha$, does not show the dependency of thickness and stress intensity level, but the scale parameter, $\beta$, and location parameter, ${\gamma}$, are decreased by increasing the specimen thickness and stress intensity level. The slope for the stress intensity level is larger than the specimen thickness.

• Proceedings of the Korea Committee for Ocean Resources and Engineering Conference
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• 2002.10a
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• pp.301-306
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• 2002

The characteristics of parameters for the probability distribution of fatigue crack growth lives by the non-Gaussian random process simulation method is investigated. In this paper, the material resistance to fatigue crack growth is treated as a spatial random process, which varies randomly on the crack surface. Using the previous experimental data, the crack length - the number of cycles curves are simulated. The results are obtained for constant stress intensity factor range conditions with stress ratio of R=0.2, three specimen thickness of 6, 12 and 18mm, and the four stress intensity level. The probability distribution function of fatigue crack growth lives seems to follow the 3-parameter Wiubull and shows a slight dependence on specimen thickness and stress intensity level. The shape parameter, ${\alpha}$, does not show the dependency of thickness and stress intensity level, but the scale parameter, ${\beta}$, and location parameter, ${\upsilon}$, are decreased by increasing the specimen thickness and stress intensity level. The slope for the stress intensity level is larger than the specimen thickness.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.46 no.2
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• pp.109-115
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• 2023

This paper studied the problem of determining the optimal inventory level to meet the customer service target level in a situation where the customer demand for each branch of a nationwide retailer is uncertain. To this end, ISR (In-Stock Ratio) was defined as a key management indicator (KPI) that can be used from the perspective of a nationwide retailer such as Samsung, LG, or Apple that sells goods at branches nationwide. An optimization model was established to allow the retailer to minimize the total amount of inventory held at each branch while meeting the customer service target level defined as the average ISR. This paper proves that there is always an optimal solution in the model and expresses the optimal solution in a generalized form using the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker condition regardless of the shape of the probability distribution of customer demand. In addition, this paper studied the case where customer demand follows a specific probability distribution such as a normal distribution, and an expression representing the optimal inventory level for this case was derived.

• Journal of Educational Research in Mathematics
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.189-204
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• 2016

As compared with the gender differences in the achievement of mathematics of the PISA 2009, the results of this study on the PISA 2012 show that the achievement of male students sharply increased, while that of female students maintained the status quo. Based on the premise that this result is derived from the ratio differences between male and female students of high level, this study analyzed the educational context variable effects on the achievements of gender differences observed between male and female students of high level. In particular, this study inquired into the factors which influence the gender difference, by analyzing the identical variables regarding Singapore and Finland of which the achievement of female students registers high among other top high-ranking countries of the PISA 2012. Hence, the binominal logistic multi-level analysis was conducted in order to consider the characteristics of hierarchical structure of PISA, and to compare the features of the educational context variable effects between the high level (above level 5) by country and the highest level (above level 6) by group. The analysis results are as follows: in terms of after-school learning time realized either in private lessons and private institutes, no significant effects were shown in any of the students of these three countries. In terms of after-school homework time, the students of Korea and Singapore gave significant influences on the probability which would be included in the group of high level or the highest level. In particular, regarding the variables which influence the probability of inclusion of Korean female students in the group of high level or the highest level, they correspond to "Homework set by teacher", "Attitude toward school: learning activities", "ESCS of School" and "Teacher-student relations". And "Cultural possessions at home" gave main influences on the probability of inclusion of the female students of Korea, Singapore and Finland in the group of the highest level.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.43 no.9
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• pp.789-799
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• 2010

The objective of this study is to suggest an approach for estimating probability rainfall using climate scenario data based GCM and to analyze changes of flood characteristics like probability rainfall, flood quantile and flood water level under climate change. The study area is Namhan river basin. Probability rainfalls which is taken 1440 minutes duration and 100-year frequency are estimated by using IPCC SRES A2 climate change scenario for each time period (S0: 1971~2000; S1: 2011~2040; S2: 2041~2070; S3: 2071~2100). Flood quantiles are estimated for 17 subbasins and flood water level is analyzed in the main channel from the downstream of Chungju dam to the upstream of Paldang dam. Probability rainfalls, peak flow from flood quantile and water depth from flood water level have increase rate in the range of 13.0~15.1 % based S0 (142.1 mm), 29.1~33.5% based S0 ($20,708\;m^3/s$), 12.6~13.6% in each S1, S2 and S3 period, respectively.

• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.308-313
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• 2005

Logistic Regression Analysis was used to compute the odds ratio (OR) and probability of conception of Holstein dairy cows of AL-MARAIE company. Data consisted of 103,778 reproductive records collected from three farms in the central region in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Records were classified according to lactation number, season of calving and milk level. At first lactation, OR of first service was 0.63 of other services and probability of pregnancy from first services was 0.39. Odds ratio increased to 1.72 at fourth lactation or probability of conception reached 0.63. The probability of conception increased from 0.39 for cows inseminated at first services to 0.75 at fifth service insemination. Odds ratio of cows calving in winter were higher than those calving in summer. Odds ratio of conception of low producing cows is about twice as likely to occur from first service as from other services. However, OR of conception of high producing cows was higher than one (probability=0.56) from first service and increased to 1.63 (probability=0.65) from third service. Odds ratio was in favor of the right uterus horn where probability of conception from first service was slightly greater than 50% in first and second lactations and less than 50% in favor of left horn in later lactations.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.33 no.3
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• pp.1007-1015
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• 2013

A stochastic probability model based on the non-homogeneous Poisson process is represented that can correctly analyze the time-dependent linear and nonlinear behaviors of total damage over the occurrence process of loads. Introducing several types of damage intensity functions, the probability of failure and the total damage with respect to mean time to failure has been investigated in detail. Taking particularly the limit state to be the random variables followed with a distribution function, the uncertainty of that would be taken into consideration in this paper. In addition, the stochastic probability model has been straightforwardly applied to the rubble-mound breakwaters with the definition of damage level about the erosion of armor units. The probability of failure and the nonlinear total damage with respect to mean time to failure has been analyzed with the damage intensity functions for armor units estimated by fitting the expected total damage to the experimental datum. Based on the present results from the stochastic probability model, the preventive management for the armor units of the rubble-mound breakwaters would be suggested to make a decision on the repairing time and the minimum amounts repaired quantitatively.

• The Korean Journal of Emergency Medical Services
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.191-204
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• 2007

This study analyzes use and operation of silver ambulance with 110 patients who had used silver ambulance in Gwangju and Jeonnam regions from June of 2006 to June of 2007 and 53 paramedics who are involved directly in ambulance operation and the results of this analysis are as follows. 1. Users' health conditions, 69.1% of users answered as bad and 67.3% suffered from chronic diseases over 3 months and it was found that they used silver ambulance due to their bad health conditions. 2. Cronbach's alpha was 0.630 and family function index was generally reliable and solution was high as 1.60, but total points were low as 7.11 and it was considered that they had family troubles. 3. On the question of ambulance use, 44.5% answered they used it because it is free, 53.6% used it for appointed medical examination and treatment and 18.1% used it for emergency. 4. Degrees of satisfaction with ambulance and paramedics were 95.4% and 76.4% respectively and 80.0% of ambulance users answered ambulance arrived quickly within 15 min. 5. Correlation($x^2 $) between family or relative's residence and frequency of visits was 86.367 and its significance probability was 0.00 and it was found that it was significant in the level of 0.1%, but correlation($x^2 $) between visitors other than family or relatives and frequency of visits was 14.768 and its significance probability was 0.25 and it was found that it was not significant in the level of 5%. 6. Correlation($x^2 $) between transfer operation speed and mobilization time was found that it was not significant in the level of 5%. Correlation($x^2 $) between their own health condition purpose of ambulance use was 13.802 an 5.696 and its significance probability was 0.93 and it was found that it was not significant in the level of 1%, and it was considered because paramedics carried patients with safe operation.