Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Assessment on Flood Characteristics Changes Using Multi-GCMs Climate Scenario

Multi-GCMs의 기후시나리오를 이용한 홍수특성변화 평가

  • Son, Kyung-Hwan (Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engrg., Sejong Univ.) ;
  • Lee, Byong-Ju (Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engrg., Sejong Univ.) ;
  • Bae, Deg-Hyo (Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engrg., Sejong Univ.)
  • 손경환 (세종대학교 토목환경공학과) ;
  • 이병주 (세종대학교 토목환경공학과) ;
  • 배덕효 (세종대학교 물자원연구소.토목환경공학과)
  • Received : 2010.04.14
  • Accepted : 2010.08.24
  • Published : 2010.09.30
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Abstract

The objective of this study is to suggest an approach for estimating probability rainfall using climate scenario data based GCM and to analyze changes of flood characteristics like probability rainfall, flood quantile and flood water level under climate change. The study area is Namhan river basin. Probability rainfalls which is taken 1440 minutes duration and 100-year frequency are estimated by using IPCC SRES A2 climate change scenario for each time period (S0: 1971~2000; S1: 2011~2040; S2: 2041~2070; S3: 2071~2100). Flood quantiles are estimated for 17 subbasins and flood water level is analyzed in the main channel from the downstream of Chungju dam to the upstream of Paldang dam. Probability rainfalls, peak flow from flood quantile and water depth from flood water level have increase rate in the range of 13.0~15.1 % based S0 (142.1 mm), 29.1~33.5% based S0 ($20,708\;m^3/s$), 12.6~13.6% in each S1, S2 and S3 period, respectively.

본 연구의 목적은 GCM으로부터 생산된 기후시나리오자료를 이용하여 미래 확률강우량을 산정하는 방법을 제안하고 미래기간의 확률강우량, 홍수량, 홍수위 산정을 통해 기후변화로 인한 홍수특성변화를 정량적으로 분석하는데 있다. 대상유역으로 남한강 상류유역을 선정하였으며, 기후시나리오자료는 13개 GCMs으로부터 IPCC SRES A2 기후시나리오 자료를 구축하였고 자료기간은 총 130년(1971~2100년)이다. 확률강우량은 4개 자료기간(S0: 1971~2000년; S1: 2011~2040년; S2: 2041~2070년; S3: 2071~2100년)으로 구분하여 강우지속기간 1440분의 100년 빈도 확률강우량을 산정하였다. 또한 17개 소유역에 대해 확률홍수량을 산정하고 충주댐 직하류부터 팔당댐 직상류까지의 주하도 구간에 대해 홍수위 분석을 수행하였다. 남한강유역은 과거기간의 확률강우량 142.1mm에 비해 13.0~15.1% 증가, 첨두홍수량은 $20,708.0\;m^3/s$에 비해 29.1~33.5% 증가, 홍수위는 구간평균 12.6~13.6% 증가하는 것을 확인하였다.

Keywords

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