Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2010.43.9.789

Assessment on Flood Characteristics Changes Using Multi-GCMs Climate Scenario  

Son, Kyung-Hwan (Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engrg., Sejong Univ.)
Lee, Byong-Ju (Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engrg., Sejong Univ.)
Bae, Deg-Hyo (Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engrg., Sejong Univ.)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.43, no.9, 2010 , pp. 789-799 More about this Journal
Abstract
The objective of this study is to suggest an approach for estimating probability rainfall using climate scenario data based GCM and to analyze changes of flood characteristics like probability rainfall, flood quantile and flood water level under climate change. The study area is Namhan river basin. Probability rainfalls which is taken 1440 minutes duration and 100-year frequency are estimated by using IPCC SRES A2 climate change scenario for each time period (S0: 1971~2000; S1: 2011~2040; S2: 2041~2070; S3: 2071~2100). Flood quantiles are estimated for 17 subbasins and flood water level is analyzed in the main channel from the downstream of Chungju dam to the upstream of Paldang dam. Probability rainfalls, peak flow from flood quantile and water depth from flood water level have increase rate in the range of 13.0~15.1 % based S0 (142.1 mm), 29.1~33.5% based S0 ($20,708\;m^3/s$), 12.6~13.6% in each S1, S2 and S3 period, respectively.
Keywords
climate scenarios; GCM; probability rainfall; flood quantile; flood water level; The Namhan river;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 1  (Citation Analysis)
연도 인용수 순위
1 Choi, Y. (2002), “Changes on Frequency and Magnitude of Heavy Rainfall Events in Korea.” Journal of the KOREAN Data Analysis Society, Vol. 4, No. 3, pp. 269-282.
2 Im, E.S., Jung, I.W., Chang, H. Bae, D.H., and Kwon, W.T. (2009). “Hydroclimatological response to dynamically downscaled climate change simulations for Korean basins.” Climatic Change, doi: 10.1007/s10584-009-9691-2.   DOI
3 IPCC(2001). Climate change 2001: The Scienticfic Basis, IPCC Contribution of Working Group Ⅲ of the intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Nakicenovic N and lead authors). Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press.
4 IPCC(2007). Climate Change 2007: The Scientific Basis, Summary for Policy Makers. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
5 Jung, I.W., Bae, D.H., and Kim, G. (2010). “Recent trends of mean and extreme precipitation in Korea.” International Journal of Climatology, doi: 10.1002/ joc.2068   DOI
6 Kay, A.L., Reynard, N.S., and Jones, R.G. (2006). “RCM rainfall for UK flood frequency estimation. I. Method and Validation.” Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 318, Issues. 1-4, pp. 151-162.   DOI   ScienceOn
7 Kusunoki, K,J., Yoshimura, J., Yoshimura, H., Noda, A., Oouchi, K., and Mizuta, R. (2006). “Change of Baiu Rain Band in Global Warning Projection by an Atmospheric General Circulation Model with a 20-km Grid Size.” Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, Vol. 84, pp. 581-611.   DOI
8 Mailhot, A., Duchesne, S., Caya, D., and Talbot G. (2007). “Assessment of future change in Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curve for Southern Quebec using the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM).” Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 347, Issues. 1-2, pp. 197-210.   DOI   ScienceOn
9 Sharply, A.N., and Williams, J.R. (1990). EPIC Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator, 1. model documentation. U.S Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, ARS-8.
10 과학기술부(2010). 기후변화에 의한 국가 수자원 영향분석 및 평가체계 적용, 수자원의 지속적 확보기술개발사업, 연구보고서.
11 건설부(1992). 한강수계치수기본계획: 하천정비기본계획.
12 건설교통부(2000). 한국확률강우량도 작성, 1999년도 수자원관리기법개발연구조사보고서.
13 건설교통부(2004). 한강유역조사 보고서
14 기상연구소(2004). 기후변화협약대응 지역기후시나리오 산출기술개발(III).
15 김병식, 김보경, 경민수, 김형수(2008), “기후변화가 극한 강우와 I-D-F 분석에 미치는 영향 평가.” 한국수자원학회논문집, 한국수자원학회, 제41권, 제4호, pp. 379-394.
16 배덕효, 정일원, 이병주, 전태현(2009). “MME(Multi-Model Ensemble)을 활용한 국가 수자원 기후변화 영향평가.” 한국수자원학회 2009년도 학술발표논문집, 한국수자원학회, pp. 198-222.   과학기술학회마을
17 Bae, D.H., Jung, I.W., Chang, H. (2008a). “Long-term trend of precipitation and runoff in Korean river basins.” Hydrological Processes, Vol. 22, No. 14, pp. 2644-2656.   DOI
18 Bae, D.H., Jung, I.W., and Chang, H. (2008b). “Potential changes in Korean water resources estimated by high-resolution climate simulation.” Climate Research, Vol. 35, pp. 213-226.   DOI
19 Cameron, D., Beven, K., and Naden, P. (2000), “Flood Frequency Estimation by Continuous Simulation under Climate Change (with uncertainty).” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 4, issue. 3, pp. 393-405.   DOI