• Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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• v.25 no.7
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• pp.787-793
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• 2005

The purposes of this study were to investigate the development of probabilistic thinking in relation to the cognitive level of elementary school students and to analyze the effects of probability activities in Thinking Science(TS) program on the development of probabilistic thinking. 152 6th grade elementary school students compiled the sample group which was divided into an experimental group and a control group. Probability activities in TS program were used with the experimental group, while the normal curriculum was conducted with the control group. Both the experimental and control group were assessed with Science Reasoning Task II and a probabilistic thinking test before execution of this investigation and were post-tested with probabilistic thinking test after the project period was complete. Results of this study showed that the students in the concrete operational stage and transitional stage used subjective strategy together with quantitative strategy in probability problem-solving, and students in the early formal operational stage used quantitative strategy in probability problem-solving. It was also found that the higher the cognitive level of students, the higher the probabilistic thinking level. The probability activities of the TS program influenced the development of probabilistic thinking of elementary school students. Assessing the development of probabilistic thinking on the basis of the cognitive level found that the level of effectiveness was significantly higher for students in the early concrete operational stage and transitional stage than students in any other stage.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.32 no.6
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• pp.1-8
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• 2017

P-PIE is a program developed to estimate failure probability of pipes and pressure vessels considering fatigue and stress corrosion crack growth. Using the program, crack growth simulation was performed with an initially existing crack in order to examine the effects of initial crack depth distribution on the leak probability of pipes. In the simulation stress corrosion crack growth was considered and several crack depth distribution models were used. From the results it was found that the initial crack depth distribution gives great effect on the leak probability of pipes. The log-normal distribution proposed by Khaleel and Simonen gives lower leak probability compared other exponential distribution models. The effects of the number and the quality of pre-service and in-service inspections on the leak probability were also examined and it was recognized that the number and the quality of pre-service and in-service inspections are also give great effect on the leak probability. In order to reduce the leak probability of pipes in plants it is very important to improve the quality of inspections. When in-service inspection is performed every 10 years and the quality of inspection is above the very good level, the leak probability shows nearly constant value after the first inspection for an initially existing crack.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.27-33
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• 2006

In this paper, an effective method for identifying influential main effects and interactions in the 2-level factorial designs is suggested by exploiting the resolution V designs developed by Kim(1992). For analysis of such designs, we employ the Bayesian approach for easy and clear identification of influential effects in the half normal probability plot.

• Education of Primary School Mathematics
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.69-79
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• 2011

The purpose of this study is to analyze 3rd, 4th and 5th graders' probability understanding and raise issues concerning instructional methods and search for the possibility of learning probability. For the purpose, a descriptive study through pencil-and-paper test regarding fairness, sample space, probability of event, probability comparison, independence and conditional probability was conducted. The following conclusions were drawn from the results obtained in this study. First, the 3rd, 4th, and 5th grade students scored the highest in the sample space questions. In descending order of skill, the students scored the highest in sample space following probability of events, fairness and probability comparison. Second, however, the level of independence understanding was low. There was no meaningful differences between grades and the conditional probability was the least understood. The independence is difficult to develop naturally according to cognitive development. The conditional probability recognizing the probability of an event changes in non-replacement situations was very difficult for these students. Third, there were significant differences between the 5th graders and the 3rd and 4th graders in the probability comparison questions. It shows that 5th graders understand the concept of proportion when they compare equal ratio probability of an event. The 3rd graers could do different ratio probability of an event more easily than equal ratio probability of an event after they were instructed on probability comparison.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• v.17 no.11
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• pp.2563-2568
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• 2013

Recently, various solutions to support explosively growing mobile data traffic have attracted intensive attentions. However, the range of spectrum which can be exploited for mobile communications is very limited. Small cell networks are actively investigated because they can efficiently offload mobile data traffic from macro cells without using additional spectrum. In this paper, we developed a system-level simulator considering small cell networks in the indoor environments. We compare the performance of outage probability when a load-balancing algorithm is utilized or not. We can reduce the outage probability of congested BS with the load-balancing algorithm. In addition, overall outage probability of whole wireless systems can be reduced by using the proposed load-balancing algorithm.

• Journal of Gastric Cancer
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.262-269
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• 2015

Purpose: Intraabdominal abscess is one of the most common reasons for re-hospitalization after gastrectomy. This study aimed to develop a model for estimating the probability of intraabdominal abscesses that can be used during the postoperative period. Materials and Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the clinicopathological data of 1,564 patients who underwent gastrectomy for gastric cancer between 2010 and 2012. Twenty-six related markers were analyzed, and multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to develop the probability estimation model for intraabdominal abscess. Internal validation using a bootstrap approach was employed to correct for bias, and the model was then validated using an independent dataset comprising of patients who underwent gastrectomy between January 2008 and March 2010. Discrimination and calibration abilities were checked in both datasets. Results: The incidence of intraabdominal abscess in the development set was 7.80% (122/1,564). The surgical approach, operating time, pathologic N classification, body temperature, white blood cell count, C-reactive protein level, glucose level, and change in the hemoglobin level were significant predictors of intraabdominal abscess in the multivariate analysis. The probability estimation model that was developed on the basis of these results showed good discrimination and calibration abilities (concordance index=0.828, Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-statistic P=0.274). Finally, we combined both datasets to produce a nomogram that estimates the probability of intraabdominal abscess. Conclusions: This nomogram can be useful for identifying patients at a high risk of intraabdominal abscess. Patients at a high risk may benefit from further evaluation or treatment before discharge.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.499-511
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• 2000

We consider a stable tandem network which consists of two M/M/1 nodes and study the probability that the total backlog exceeds a large level N. Since the excessive backlog is a rare event, it is difficult to estimate this probability efficiently by using the crude Monte Carlo simulation. Instead we perform the ;$h$-transform proposed by McDonald(1999) to obtain the twisted network, in which the node with the larger load is overloaded. Then we use it to run the fast simulation.

• Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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• 2012.04a
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• pp.75-80
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• 2012

The research presents a guideline for quality practitioners to provide a full comprehension of differences in theoretical and practical interpretations of assumed sampling errors of and significance probability of calculated p-value. Besides, the study recommends the use of statistical inferences methods with known parameters to identify the improvement effects. In practice, the quality practitioners obtain the known parameters through systematic quality Database (DB) activities.

• Journal of Communications and Networks
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.15-24
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• 2013

Provisioning of quality of service (QoS) is a key issue in any multi-media system. However, in wireless systems, supporting QoS requirements of different traffic types is a more challenging problem due to the need to simultaneously minimize two performance metrics - the probability of dropping a handover call and the probability of blocking a new call. Since QoS requirements are not as stringent for non-real-time traffic, as opposed to real-time traffic, more calls can be accommodated by releasing some bandwidth from the already admitted non-real-time traffic calls. If the released bandwidth that is used to handle handover calls is larger than the released bandwidth that is used for new calls, then the resulting probability of dropping a handover call is smaller than the probability of blocking a new call. In this paper, we propose an efficient call admission control algorithm that relies on adaptive multi-level bandwidth-allocation scheme for non-realtime calls. The scheme allows reduction of the call dropping probability, along with an increase in the bandwidth utilization. The numerical results show that the proposed scheme is capable of attaining negligible handover call dropping probability without sacrificing bandwidth utilization.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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• v.30 no.9B
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• pp.596-601
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• 2005

In this paper it is focused on the relation between CLR(Cell Loss Ratio) and blocking probability in the wireless ATM access transport. Traffic model of wireless ATH access transport is based on the cell scale, burst scale and call connection level. The CLR due to buffer overflow for wireless access node is derived for VBR traffic. The CLR due to transmission errors for wireless channel is derived. Using the CLR for both access node and wireless channel: the CLR of wireless ATM access transport is derived. The relation between CLR and blocking probability is analyzed for VBR traffic to evaluate performance of wireless ATM access transport.