• 대한원격탐사학회지
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• 제18권1호
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• pp.1-12
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• 2002

Landslide prediction modeling has been regarded as one of the important environmental applications in GIS. While, landslide stability in a certain area as collateral process for prediction modeling can be characterized by DEM-based hydrological features such as flow-direction, flow-accumulation, flow-length, wetness index, and so forth. In this study, Slope-Area plot methodology followed by stability index mapping with these hydrological variables is firstly performed for stability analysis with actual landslide occurrences at Boeun area, Korea, and then Landslide prediction modeling based on likelihood ratio model for landslide potential mapping is carried out; in addition, KOMPSAT EOC imagery is used to detect the locations and scalped scale of Landslide occurrences. These two tasks are independently processed for preparation of unbiased criteria, and then results of those are qualitatively compared. As results of this case study, land stability analysis based on DEM-based hydrological variables directly reflects terrain characteristics; however, the results in the form of land stability map by landslide prediction model are not fully matched with those of hydrologic landslide analysis due to the heuristic scheme based on location of existed landslide occurrences within prediction approach, especially zones of not-investigated occurrences. Therefore, it is expected that the resets on the space-robustness of landslide prediction models in conjunction with DEM-based landslide stability analysis can be effectively utilized to search out unrevealed or hidden landslide occurrences.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제15권6호
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• pp.373-383
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• 2006

The spatial mapping of risk is very useful data in planning for disaster preparedness. This research presents a methodology for making the landslide life risk map in the Boeun area which had considerable landslide damage following heavy rain in August, 1998. We have developed a three-stage procedure in spatial data analysis not only to estimate the probability of the occurrence of the natural hazardous events but also to evaluate the uncertainty of the estimators of that probability. The three-stage procedure consists of: (i)construction of a hazard prediction map of "future" hazardous events; (ii) validation of prediction results and estimation of the probability of occurrence for each predicted hazard level; and (iii) generation of risk maps with the introduction of human life factors representing assumed or established vulnerability levels by combining the prediction map in the first stage and the estimated probabilities in the second stage with human life data. The significance of the landslide susceptibility map was evaluated by computing a prediction rate curve. It is used that the Bayesian prediction model and the case study results (the landslide susceptibility map and prediction rate curve) can be prepared for prevention of future landslide life risk map. Data from the Bayesian model-based landslide susceptibility map and prediction ratio curves were used together with human rife data to draft future landslide life risk maps. Results reveal that individual pixels had low risks, but the total risk death toll was estimated at 3.14 people. In particular, the dangerous areas involving an estimated 1/100 people were shown to have the highest risk among all research-target areas. Three people were killed in this area when landslides occurred in 1998. Thus, this risk map can deliver factual damage situation prediction to policy decision-makers, and subsequently can be used as useful data in preventing disasters. In particular, drafting of maps on landslide risk in various steps will enable one to forecast the occurrence of disasters.

• 농업과학연구
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• 제43권4호
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• pp.507-521
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• 2016

Landslides are one of the most common natural hazards causing significant damage and casualties every year. In Korea, the increasing trend in landslide occurrence in recent decades, caused by climate change, has set off an alarm for researchers to find more reliable methods for landslide prediction. Therefore, an accurate landslide-susceptibility assessment is fundamental for preventing landslides and minimizing damages. However, analyzing the stability of a natural slope is not an easy task because it depends on numerous factors such as those related to vegetation, soil properties, soil moisture distribution, the amount and duration of rainfall, earthquakes, etc. A variety of different methods and techniques for evaluating landslide susceptibility have been proposed, but up to now no specific method or technique has been accepted as the standard method because it is very difficult to assess different methods with entirely different intrinsic and extrinsic data. Landslide prediction methods can fall into three categories: empirical, statistical, and physical approaches. This paper reviews previous research and surveys three groups of landslide prediction methods.

• 지질공학
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• 제17권3호
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• pp.411-418
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• 2007

산사태가 일어날 지점을 예측한다든지 사태물질로 인한 피해 예상지역을 알아내는 것은 쉬운 일이 아니다. 이는 산사태를 발생시키는 요인들이 여러가지가 있고 개개의 요인들이 산사태를 발생시키는데 기여하는 중요도도 서로 다르기 때문이다. 그러나 많은 산사태자료에 대한 분석을 바탕으로 발생 메커니즘 규명과 통계적 해석기법을 통해 산사태 발생가능성의 예측과 위험지역의 분류가 가능해졌다. 석조문화재가 산사면 또는 그 직하부에 인접해 있는 경우는 산사태가 발생되면 재해에 무방비로 노출되어 있다. 이 연구에서는 여름철의 집중호우 등에 의해 석조문화재 및 그 주변지역에 산사태가 발생할 가능성을 사전에 예측함으로써 그로 인한 석조문화재의 피해가능성을 분석하고자 하였다. 이러한 목적을 위해 2002년 8월 산사태재해로 인해 피해가 발생된 바 있으며 중요 석조문화재가 위치해 있는 실상사 백장암지역을 연구대상지역으로 선정하여 산사태 예측도를 작성하였다. 그리고 산사태재해 가능성을 발생확률로 표현하여 등급별로 구분함으로써 석조문화재 및 그 주변지역이 산사태에 취약한지의 여부를 평가하였다. 또한, 이러한 조사 및 해석기법을 앞으로 석조문화재 주변의 산사태재해 예측 및 평가를 위해 실용적으로 활용할 수 있는 토대를 마련하였다.

• 대한원격탐사학회지
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• 제24권5호
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• pp.453-462
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• 2008

The objective of this paper is to compare the prediction performances of different landslide hazard maps based on topographic data stemming from different sources of elevation. The geostatistical framework of kriging, which can properly integrate spatial data with different accuracy, is applied for generating more reliable elevation estimates from both sparse elevation spot heights and exhaustive ASTER-based elevation values. A case study from Boeun, Korea illustrates that the integration of elevation and slope maps derived from different data yielded different prediction performances for landslide hazard mapping. The landslide hazard map constructed by using the elevation and the associated slope maps based on geostatistical integration of spot heights and ASTER-based elevation resulted in the best prediction performance. Landslide hazard mapping using elevation and slope maps derived from the interpolation of only sparse spot heights showed the worst prediction performance.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2015년도 학술발표회
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• pp.281-281
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• 2015

Shallow landslide often occurs in areas of this topography where subsurface soil water flow paths give rise to excess pore-water pressures downslope. Recent hillslope hydrology studies have shown that subsurface topography has a strong impact in controlling the connectivity of saturated areas at the soil-bedrock interface. In this study, the physically based SHALSTAB model was used to evaluate the effects of three soil thicknesses (i.e. average soil layer, soil thickness to weathered soil and soil thickness to bedrock soil layer) and subsurface flow reflecting three soil thicknesses on shallow landslide prediction accuracy. Three digital elevation models (DEMs; i.e. ground surface, weathered surface and bedrock surface) and three soil thicknesses (average soil thickness, soil thickness to weathered rock and soil thickness to bedrock) at a small hillslope site in Jinbu, Kangwon Prefecture, eastern part of the Korean Peninsula, were considered. Each prediction result simulated with the SHALSTAB model was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis for modelling accuracy. The results of the ROC analysis for shallow landslide prediction using the ground surface DEM (GSTO), the weathered surface DEM and the bedrock surface DEM (BSTO) indicated that the prediction accuracy was higher using flow accumulation by the BSTO and weathered soil thickness compared to results. These results imply that 1) the effect of subsurface flow by BSTO on shallow landslide prediction especially could be larger than the effects of topography by GSTO, and 2) the effect of weathered soil thickness could be larger than the effects of average soil thickness and bedrock soil thickness on shallow landslide prediction. Therefore, we suggest that using BSTO dem and weathered soil layer can improve the accuracy of shallow landslide prediction, which should contribute to more accurately predicting shallow landslides.

• 대한원격탐사학회지
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• 제17권3호
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• pp.199-210
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• 2001

본 연구는 예측비율곡선을 이용한 산사태 예측 모델의 정량적 비교분석을 목적으로 하여 수행되었다. 1998년 8월 집중호우로 산사태가 발생한 경기도 장흥지역을 대상으로 위성영상과 현장답사를 통하여 산사태 발생위치를 확인하였고. GIS 기반의 다양한 산사태 관련 공간 정보를 구축하였다. 사용된 공간통합 방법은 결합 조건부 확률과 certainty factor 이며, 산사태 발생 지역을 무작위로 2개의 그룹으로 나누어서 한 개의 그룹은 예측도 작성에 사용하였으며, 나머지 그룹은 예측 결과의 검증에 사용하였다. 예측비율곡선 작성을 통해 두 예측모델의 정량적 비교가 가능하였다. 본 연구에서 사용된 예측비율곡선작성은 추후 다른 모델의 정량적 비교 분석 및 오차 분석을 하는 데에도 사용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• 한국정보통신설비학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국정보통신설비학회 2007년도 학술대회
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• pp.191-195
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• 2007

Recently, landslides frequently happen at a natural slope during period of intensive rainfall. With rapidly increasing population of steep terrain in Korea, landslides have become one of the most significant natural hazards. Thus, it is necessary to protect people from landslides and to minimize the damage of houses, roads and other facilities. To accomplish this goal, many landslide prediction methods have been developed in the world. In this study, a simple landslide prediction system that enables people to escape the endangered area is developed. The system is focused to debris flows which happen frequently during periods of intensive rainfall at steep slopes in Kangwondo. This system is based on the wireless sensor network that is composed of sensor nodes, gateway, and server system. Sensor nodes that are composed of sensing part and communication part are newly developed to detect sensitive ground movement. Sensing part is designed to measure tilt angle and acceleration accurately, and communication part is deployed with Bluetooth (IEEE 802.15. I) module to transmit the data to the gateway. To verify the feasibility of this landslide prediction system, a series of laboratory tests is performed at a small-scale earth slope supplying rainfall by artificial rainfall dropping device. It is found that sensing nodes installed at slope can detect the ground motion when the slope failure starts. It is expected that the landslide prediction system by wireless senor network can provide early warnings when landslides such as debris flow occurs, and can be applied to ubiquitous computing city (U-City) that is characterized by disaster free.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국방재학회 2008년도 정기총회 및 학술발표대회
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• pp.369-372
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• 2008

Recently, landslides have frequently occurred on natural slopes during periods of intense rainfall. With a rapidly increasing population on or near steep terrain in Korea, landslides have become one of the most significant natural hazards. Thus, it is necessary to protect people from landslides and to minimize the damage of houses, roads and other facilities. To accomplish this goal, many landslide prediction methods have been developed in the world. In this study, a simple landslide prediction system that enables people to escape the endangered area is introduced. The system is focused to debris flows which happen frequently during periods of intense rainfall. The system is based on the wireless sensor network (WSN) that is composed of sensor nodes, gateway, and server system. Sensor nodes comprising a sensing part and a communication part are developed to detect ground movement. Sensing part is designed to measure inclination angle and acceleration accurately, and communication part is deployed with Bluetooth (IEEE 802.15.1) module to transmit the data to the gateway. To verify the feasibility of this landslide prediction system, a series of experimental studies was performed at a small-scale earth slope equipped with an artificial rainfall dropping device. It is found that sensing nodes installed at slope can detect the ground motion when the slope starts to move. It is expected that the landslide prediction system by wireless senor network can provide early warnings when landslides such as debris flow occurs.

• 지적과 국토정보
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• 제44권2호
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• pp.113-124
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• 2014

최근 집중호우에 의한 산사태 발생이 빈번해짐에 따라 산사태 취약지역을 분석하고 산사태 발생을 예측하기 위한 다양한 연구들이 진행되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 산사태 발생지역의 토양특성을 분석하였으며, 배수 특성별 우도비를 평가한 결과 배수가 좋은 토양에서 산사태 발생 가능성이 높게 나타났다. 또한 DEM 자료에서 추출한 경사도의 우도비를 평가한 결과 $20{\sim}40^{\circ}$ 경사구간에서 산사태 발생 가능성이 높게 나타났다. 그리고 공간분석에 의한 사면방향도의 우도비를 평가한 결과 북향에서 산사태 발생 가능성이 높게 나타났다. 아울러 토양배수, 경사도 그리고 사면방향도의 우도비를 중첩하여 산사태 취약도를 평가할 수 있었으며, 산사태 발생지역에 대하여 분석과 검증 프로세스를 수행함으로써 미래 산사태 발생 예측비율을 평가할 수 있었다.