• Title/Summary/Keyword: interval probability

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Application of Generic Algorithm to Inspection Planning of Fatigue Deteriorating Structure

  • Kim, Sung-chan;Fujimoto, Yukio;Hamada, Kunihiro
    • Journal of Ship and Ocean Technology
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.42-57
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    • 1998
  • Genetic Algorithm (GA) is applied to obtain optimal Inspection plan for fatigue deteriorating structures. The optimization problem is defined so as to minimize inspection cost in the 1ifs-time of the structure under the constraint that the increment of failure probability in each inspection interval is maintained below a target value. Optimization parameters are the inspection timing and the inspection quality. The inspection timing is selected from the discrete intervals such as one year, two years, three years, etc. The inspection quality is selected from the followings; no inspection, normal inspection, sampling inspection or precise inspection. The applicability of the proposed GA approach is demonstrated through the numerical calculations assuming a structure consisting of four member sets. Influences of the level of target failure probability, initial defect condition and stress increase due to plate thickness reduction caused by corrosion on inspection planning are discussed.

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Study on the sampling rate for the purpose of use in water distribution network data (상수도 관망 데이터의 사용목적에 관한 수집 주기 연구)

  • Lee, Kyounghwan;Suh, JungChul;Cha, Hunjoo;Song, Kyosin;Choi, Junemo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.233-239
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    • 2013
  • Sampling rate of Hydraulic pressure data, depending on the intended use of the water distribution system is an important factor. If sampling interval of hydraulic data is short, that will be more useful but it demand a lot of expense for maintenance. In this study, based on simulation of water distribution system 2 khz data, statistical techniques of student t distribution, non-exceedance probability using the optimal sampling rate for research.

Estimation of confidence interval in exponential distribution for the greenhouse gas inventory uncertainty by the simulation study (모의실험에 의한 온실가스 인벤토리 불확도 산정을 위한 지수분포 신뢰구간 추정방법)

  • Lee, Yung-Seop;Kim, Hee-Kyung;Son, Duck Kyu;Lee, Jong-Sik
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.825-833
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    • 2013
  • An estimation of confidence intervals is essential to calculate uncertainty for greenhouse gases inventory. It is generally assumed that the population has a normal distribution for the confidence interval of parameters. However, in case data distribution is asymmetric, like nonnormal distribution or positively skewness distribution, the traditional estimation method of confidence intervals is not adequate. This study compares two estimation methods of confidence interval; parametric and non-parametric method for exponential distribution as an asymmetric distribution. In simulation study, coverage probability, confidence interval length, and relative bias for the evaluation of the computed confidence intervals. As a result, the chi-square method and the standardized t-bootstrap method are better methods in parametric methods and non-parametric methods respectively.

A Study on the Bit Error Probability of PC/FM System (PCM/FM 시스템의 비트 오차 확률에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hyeong-Il;Kim, Yeong-Gyun;Lee, Chung-Ung
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.35-40
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    • 1983
  • The bit error probability of PCM/FM system was derived and numerically calculated. Binary NRZ-L baseband signal was premodulation filtered to frequency modulate a sinusoidal carrier, and a common circuit of limiter-discriminator was employed as a detector. Considering both RF spectrum limitation and bit error Probability reduction, it was found that h ≒ 3WT would be reasonable, where h is the frequency deviation ratio, W is the bandwidth of a premodulation filter and T is the time interval of one bit.

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Statistical Model-Based Voice Activity Detection Using Spatial Cues for Dual-Channel Noisy Speech Recognition (이중채널 잡음음성인식을 위한 공간정보를 이용한 통계모델 기반 음성구간 검출)

  • Shin, Min-Hwa;Park, Ji-Hun;Kim, Hong-Kook;Lee, Yeon-Woo;Lee, Seong-Ro
    • Phonetics and Speech Sciences
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    • v.2 no.3
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    • pp.141-148
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    • 2010
  • In this paper, voice activity detection (VAD) for dual-channel noisy speech recognition is proposed in which spatial cues are employed. In the proposed method, a probability model for speech presence/absence is constructed using spatial cues obtained from dual-channel input signal, and a speech activity interval is detected through this probability model. In particular, spatial cues are composed of interaural time differences and interaural level differences of dual-channel speech signals, and the probability model for speech presence/absence is based on a Gaussian kernel density. In order to evaluate the performance of the proposed VAD method, speech recognition is performed for speech segments that only include speech intervals detected by the proposed VAD method. The performance of the proposed method is compared with those of several methods such as an SNR-based method, a direction of arrival (DOA) based method, and a phase vector based method. It is shown from the speech recognition experiments that the proposed method outperforms conventional methods by providing relative word error rates reductions of 11.68%, 41.92%, and 10.15% compared with SNR-based, DOA-based, and phase vector based method, respectively.

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Analysis and Probability of Overestimation by an Imperfect Inspector with Errors of Triangular Distributions (삼각 과오 분포를 가진 불완전한 검사원의 과대 추정 확률과 분석)

  • Yang, Moon Hee;Cho, Jae Hyung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.41 no.2
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    • pp.117-132
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    • 2018
  • There always exist nonzero inspection errors whether inspectors are humans or automatic inspection machines. Inspection errors can be categorized by two types, type I error and type II error, and they can be regarded as either a constant or a random variable. Under the assumption that two types of random inspection errors are distributed with the "uniform" distribution on a half-open interval starting from zero, it was proved that inspectors overestimate any given fraction defective with the probability more than 50%, if and only if the given fraction defective is smaller than a critical value, which depends upon only the ratio of a type II error over a type I error. In addition, it was also proved that the probability of overestimation approaches one hundred percent as a given fraction defective approaches zero. If these critical phenomena hold true for any error distribution, then it might have great economic impact on commercial inspection plans due to the unfair overestimation and the recent trend of decreasing fraction defectives in industry. In this paper, we deal with the same overestimation problem, but assume a "symmetrical triangular" distribution expecting better results since our triangular distribution is closer to a normal distribution than the uniform distribution. It turns out that the overestimation phenomenon still holds true even for the triangular error distribution.

An Analysis of System Error Rate (시스템 오류 발생률 분석)

  • Seong, Soon-Yong
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.475-481
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    • 2009
  • The frequency and probability of deadlock are influential factors in the design of algorithms for deadlock. However, little work has been done in this area because it's not easy to analyze how factors such as the characteristics of process or resource, resource request and release patterns, or the number of process affect the occurrence of deadlock. This study was designed to reduce remarkably the number of state by adapting the model 'state (a,b)t' to represent the resource allocation state, as well as to include the effect of resource error rate and recovery rate in the system analysis. Various formulas about deadlock occurrence were resulted in this study such as the average time interval of deadlock, the probability that a process requesting a resource waits or deadlocks, and the probability that a request deadlocks in a cycle of length 2.

Transmission Interval Optimization by Analysis of Collision Probability in Low Power TPMS (저전력 운영 TPMS에서 충돌 확률 분석을 통한 전송주기 최적화)

  • Lim, Sol;Choi, Han Wool;Kim, Dae Jin
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.10 no.5
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    • pp.364-371
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    • 2017
  • TPMS is a vehicle electric system that measures the air pressure of a tire, and informs the driver of current tire states. The TPMS sensor typically uses unidirectional communication for small size, light weight, and low power. The transmission period of the sensor indicates the service quality of monitoring the tire. In order to determine the optimal transmission period, frame collision probability and the life time of the sensor should be analyzed. In this paper, collision probability model using Venn diagram is designed in low power TPMS with the normal and warning mode. And the life time and a collision probability were analyzed with the ratio(n) of the normal mode to warning mode transmission period. As a result, $T_{nP}=31sec$ and $T_{wP}=2.4sec$ at 5 years, and $T_{nP}=71sec$ and $T_{wP}=2.5sec$ at 7 years.

A Three Dimensional Study on the Probability of Slope Failure (사면(斜面)의 삼차원(三次元) 파괴확률(破壞確率)에 관한 연구(硏究))

  • Kim, Young Su;Lim, Byuong Zo;Paik, Young Shik
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.3 no.3
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    • pp.95-106
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    • 1983
  • The probability of failure is used to analyze the reliability of three dimensional slope failure, instead of conventional factor of safety. The strength parameters are assumed to be normal variated and beta variated. These are interval estimated under the specified confidence level and maximum likelihood estimation. The pseudonormal and beta random variables are generated using the uniform probability transformation method according to central limit theorem and rejection method. By means of a Monte-Carlo Simulation, the probability of failure is defined as; $$P_f$$=M/N N: Total number of trials M: Total number of failures some of the conclusions derived from the case study include; 1. If the strength parameters are assumed to be normal variated, the relationship between safety factor and the probability of failure is fairly consistent, regardless of the procedures of analysis and dimensions of assumed rupture surfaces. 2. However if the strength parameters are beta variated, general relationship between $F_s$ and $P_f$ is hardly found.

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The Range of confidence Intervals for ${\sigma}^{2}_{A}/{\sigma}^{2}_{B}$ in Two-Factor Nested Variance Component Model

  • Kang, Kwan-Joong
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.159-164
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    • 1998
  • The two-factor nested variance component model with equal numbers in the cells are given by $y_{ijk}\;=\;{\mu}\;+\;A_i\;+\;B_{ij}\;+\;C_{ijk}$ and the confidence intervals for the ratio of variance components, ${\sigma}^{2}_{A}/{\sigma}^{2}_{B}$ are obtained in various forms by many authors. This article shows the probability ranges of these confidence intervals on ${\sigma}^{2}_{A}/{\sigma}^{2}_{B}$ proved by the mathematical computation.

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