• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.15 no.5
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• pp.727-735
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• 2008

Consider a clinical trial in which the main end-point is survival. Suppose after the start of the study an intermediate event occurs which may be influenced by a covariate(or treatment). In many clinical studies the occurrence of an intermediate event may change the survival distribution. This investigation develops two-stage model which, in the first stage, models the effect of covariate on the intermediate event and models the relationship between survival time and covariate as well as the intermediate event. In this paper, the two-stage model is presented in order to model intermediate event and a test based on this model is also provided. A numerical simulations are carried out to evaluate its overall significance level.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.379-393
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• 2020

A terminal event such as death may censor an intermediate event such as relapse, but not vice versa in semi-competing risks data, which is often seen in medicine, public health, and epidemiology. We propose a Weibull regression model with a normal frailty to analyze semi-competing risks data when all three transition times of the illness-death model are possibly interval-censored. We construct the conditional likelihood separately depending on the types of subjects: still alive with or without the intermediate event, dead with or without the intermediate event, and dead with the intermediate event missing. Optimal parameter estimates are obtained from the iterative quasi-Newton algorithm after the marginalization of the full likelihood using the adaptive importance sampling. We illustrate the proposed method with extensive simulation studies and PAQUID (Personnes Agées Quid) data.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.65-79
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• 2000

This research considers a system which has an ultimate terminal event such as death, critical failure, bankruptcy together with a certain indicative events (temporary malfunction, special treatment, kind of defaults) that frequently occurs before the terminal event comes to the system. Some investigation of a model for the corresponding bivariate data of the system have been done with an explanation of the situation in terms of two continuous variables instead of continuous-discrete variables and some other properties. Also an analysis has been carried out to evaluate the effect of intermediate observation of occurrence of indicative event so that the result can be used for a possible suggestion of an intermediate observing schedule.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.29 no.7
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• pp.1311-1327
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• 2016

We propose a multi-state model for analyzing semi-competing risks data with interval-censored or missing intermediate events. This model is an extension of the 'illness-death model', which composes three states, such as 'healthy', 'diseased', and 'dead'. The state of 'diseased' can be considered as an intermediate event. Two more states are added into the illness-death model to describe missing events caused by a loss of follow-up before the end of the study. One of them is a state of 'LTF', representing a lost-to-follow-up, and the other is an unobservable state that represents the intermediate event experienced after LTF occurred. Given covariates, we employ the Cox proportional hazards model with a normal frailty and construct a full likelihood to estimate transition intensities between states in the multi-state model. Marginalization of the full likelihood is completed using the adaptive Gaussian quadrature, and the optimal solution of the regression parameters is achieved through the iterative Newton-Raphson algorithm. Simulation studies are carried out to investigate the finite-sample performance of the proposed estimation procedure in terms of the empirical coverage probability of the true regression parameter. Our proposed method is also illustrated with the dataset adapted from Helmer et al. (2001).

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.10 no.9
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• pp.4307-4325
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• 2016

With the aim of solving the problems of long processing times, high memory consumption and low event throughput in the current processing approaches in out-of-order RFID event streams, an efficient complex event processing method based on INFA-HTS (Improved Nondeterministic Finite Automaton-Hash Table Structure) is presented in this paper. The contribution of this paper lies in the fact that we use INFA and HTS to successfully realize the detection of complex events for out-of-order RFID event streams. Specifically, in our scheme, to detect the disorder of out-of-order event streams, we expand the traditional NFA model into a new INFA model to capture the related RFID primitive events from the out-of-order event stream. To high-efficiently manage the large intermediate capturing results, we use the HTS to store and process them. As a result, these problems in the existing methods can be effectively solved by our scheme. The simulation results of our experiments show that our proposed method in this paper outperforms some of the current general processing approaches used to process out-of-order RFID event streams.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics A
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• v.32A no.4
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• pp.15-23
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• 1995

In this paper, we evaluate the performance of a transient queueing approximation when it is applied to modeling computer communication networks. An operational computer network that uses the ISO IS-IS(Intermediate System-Intermediate System) routing protocol is modeled as a Jackson network. The primary goal of the approximation pursued in the study was to provide transient queue statistics comparable in accuracy to the results from conventional Monte Carlo simulations. A closure approximation of the M/M/1 queueing system was extended to the general Jackson network in order to obtain transient queue statistics. The performance of the approximation was compared to a discrete event simulation under nonstationary conditions. The transient results from the two simulations are compared on the basis of queue size and computer execution time. Under nonstationary conditions, the approximations for the mean and variance of the number of packets in the queue erer fairly close to the simulation values. The approximation offered substantial speed improvements over the discrete event simulation. The closure approximation provided a good alternative Monte Carlo simulation of the computer networks.

• Applied Biological Chemistry
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• v.50 no.4
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• pp.245-252
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• 2007

FTA (fault tree analysis), an analytical method for system failure management, was employed in the management of faults in running PCR analysis. PCR is executed through several processes, in which the process of PCR machine operation was selected for the analysis by FTA. The reason for choosing the simplest process in the PCR analysis was to adopt it as a first trial to test a feasibility of the FTA approach. First, fault events-top event, intermediate event, basic events-were identified by survey on expert knowledge of PCR. Then those events were correlated deductively to build a fault tree in hierarchical structure. The fault tree was evaluated qualitatively and quantitatively, yielding minimal cut sets, structural importance, common cause vulnerability, simulation of probability of occurrence of top event, cut set importance, item importance and sensitivity. The top event was 'errors in the step of PCR machine operation in running PCR analysis'. The major intermediate events were 'failures in instrument' and 'errors in actions in experiment'. The basic events were four events, one event and one event based on human errors, instrument failure and energy source failure, respectively. Those events were combined with Boolean logic gates-AND or OR, constructing a fault tree. In the qualitative evaluation of the tree, the basic events-'errors in preparing the reaction mixture', 'errors in setting temperature and time of PCR machine', 'failure of electrical power during running PCR machine', 'errors in selecting adequate PCR machine'-proved the most critical in the occurrence of the fault of the top event. In the quantitative evaluation, the list of the critical events were not the same as that from the qualitative evaluation. It was because the probability value of PCR machine failure, not on the list above though, increased with used time, and the probability of the events of electricity failure and defective of PCR machine were given zero due to rare likelihood of the events in general. It was concluded that this feasibility study is worth being a means to introduce the novel technique, FTA, to the management of faults in running PCR analysis.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.30 no.4
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• pp.539-553
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• 2017

We propose a multi-state model to analyze semi-competing risks data with interval-censored or missing intermediate events. This model is an extension of the three states of the illness-death model: healthy, disease, and dead. The 'diseased' state can be considered as the intermediate event. Two more states are added into the illness-death model to incorporate the missing events, which are caused by a loss of follow-up before the end of a study. One of them is a state of the lost-to-follow-up (LTF), and the other is an unobservable state that represents an intermediate event experienced after the occurrence of LTF. Given covariates, we employ the Lin and Ying additive hazards model with log-normal frailty and construct a conditional likelihood to estimate transition intensities between states in the multi-state model. A marginalization of the full likelihood is completed using adaptive importance sampling, and the optimal solution of the regression parameters is achieved through an iterative quasi-Newton algorithm. Simulation studies are performed to investigate the finite-sample performance of the proposed estimation method in terms of empirical coverage probability of true regression parameters. Our proposed method is also illustrated with a dataset adapted from Helmer et al. (2001).

• Wind and Structures
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• v.28 no.5
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• pp.315-329
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• 2019

Non-synoptic winds have distinctive statistical properties compared to synoptic winds and can produce different wind loads on buildings and structures. The current study uses the new capabilities of the WindEEE Dome at Western University to replicate a stationary non-Gaussian wind event recorded at the Port of La Spezia in Italy. These stationary non-Gaussian wind events are also known as intermediate wind events as they differ from non-stationary non-Gaussian events (e.g., downbursts) as well as stationary Gaussian events (e.g., atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) flows). In the present study, the wind loads on a typical low-rise building are investigated for an intermediate wind event reproduced using a continuous radial impinging jet (IJ) at the WindEEE Dome. For the same building model, differences in wind loads between ABL and IJ are also examined. Wind loads on different surface zones on the building, as defined in the ASCE code for design loads, are also calculated and compared with the code.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.49 no.2
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• pp.360-372
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• 2017

Many advanced reactor designs rely on passive systems to fulfill safety functions during accident sequences. These systems depend heavily on boundary conditions to induce a motive force, meaning the system can fail to operate as intended because of deviations in boundary conditions, rather than as the result of physical failures. Furthermore, passive systems may operate in intermediate or degraded modes. These factors make passive system operation difficult to characterize within a traditional probabilistic framework that only recognizes discrete operating modes and does not allow for the explicit consideration of time-dependent boundary conditions. Argonne National Laboratory has been examining various methodologies for assessing passive system reliability within a probabilistic risk assessment for a station blackout event at an advanced small modular reactor. This paper provides an overview of a passive system reliability demonstration analysis for an external event. Considering an earthquake with the possibility of site flooding, the analysis focuses on the behavior of the passive Reactor Cavity Cooling System following potential physical damage and system flooding. The assessment approach seeks to combine mechanistic and simulation-based methods to leverage the benefits of the simulation-based approach without the need to substantially deviate from conventional probabilistic risk assessment techniques. Although this study is presented as only an example analysis, the results appear to demonstrate a high level of reliability of the Reactor Cavity Cooling System (and the reactor system in general) for the postulated transient event.