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Predicting Crime Risky Area Using Machine Learning (머신러닝기반 범죄발생 위험지역 예측)

  • HEO, Sun-Young;KIM, Ju-Young;MOON, Tae-Heon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.64-80
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    • 2018
  • In Korea, citizens can only know general information about crime. Thus it is difficult to know how much they are exposed to crime. If the police can predict the crime risky area, it will be possible to cope with the crime efficiently even though insufficient police and enforcement resources. However, there is no prediction system in Korea and the related researches are very much poor. From these backgrounds, the final goal of this study is to develop an automated crime prediction system. However, for the first step, we build a big data set which consists of local real crime information and urban physical or non-physical data. Then, we developed a crime prediction model through machine learning method. Finally, we assumed several possible scenarios and calculated the probability of crime and visualized the results in a map so as to increase the people's understanding. Among the factors affecting the crime occurrence revealed in previous and case studies, data was processed in the form of a big data for machine learning: real crime information, weather information (temperature, rainfall, wind speed, humidity, sunshine, insolation, snowfall, cloud cover) and local information (average building coverage, average floor area ratio, average building height, number of buildings, average appraised land value, average area of residential building, average number of ground floor). Among the supervised machine learning algorithms, the decision tree model, the random forest model, and the SVM model, which are known to be powerful and accurate in various fields were utilized to construct crime prevention model. As a result, decision tree model with the lowest RMSE was selected as an optimal prediction model. Based on this model, several scenarios were set for theft and violence cases which are the most frequent in the case city J, and the probability of crime was estimated by $250{\times}250m$ grid. As a result, we could find that the high crime risky area is occurring in three patterns in case city J. The probability of crime was divided into three classes and visualized in map by $250{\times}250m$ grid. Finally, we could develop a crime prediction model using machine learning algorithm and visualized the crime risky areas in a map which can recalculate the model and visualize the result simultaneously as time and urban conditions change.

Seismic response characteristics of the hypothetical subsea tunnel in the fault zone with various material properties (다양한 물성의 단층대를 통과하는 가상해저터널의 지진 시 응답 특성)

  • Jang, Dong In;Kwak, Chang-Won;Park, Inn-Joon;Kim, Chang-Yong
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.1061-1071
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    • 2018
  • A subsea tunnel, being a super-sized underground structure must ensure safety at the time of earthquake, as well as at ordinary times. At the time of earthquake, in particular, of a subsea tunnel, a variety of response behaviors are induced owing to relative rigidity to the surrounding ground, or difference of displacement, so that the behavior characteristics can be hardly anticipated. The investigation aims to understand the behavior characteristics switched by earthquake of an imaginary subsea tunnel which passes through a fault zone having different physical properties from those of the surrounding ground. In order to achieve the aim, dynamic response behaviors of a subsea tunnel which passes through a fault zone were observed by means of indoor experiments. For the sake of improved earthquake resistance, a shape of subsea tunnel to which flexible segments have been applied was considered. Afterward, it is believed that a D/B can be established through 3-dimensional earthquake resistance interpretation of various grounds, on the basis of verified results from the experiments and interpretations under various conditions. The present investigation performed 1 g shaking table test in order to verify the result of 3-dimensional earthquake resistance interpretation. A model considering the similitude (1:100) of a scale-down model test was manufactured, and tests for three (3) Cases were carried out. Incident seismic wave was introduced by artificial seismic wave having both long-period and short-period earthquake properties in the horizontal direction which is rectangular to the processing direction of the tunnel, so that a fault zone was modeled. For numerical analysis, elastic modulus of the fault zone was assumed 1/5 value of the modulus of individual grounds surround the tunnel, in order to simulate a fault zone. Resultantly, reduced acceleration was confirmed with increase of physical properties of the fault zone, and the result from the shaking table test showed the same tendency as the result from 3-dimensional interpretation.

Investigation of Food Safety Attitude, Knowledge, and Behavior in College Students in Gyeonggi Region (경기도 지역 대학생의 식품 안전성에 대한 태도와 지식 및 행동 분석)

  • Kim, Ji-Myung;Hong, Seung-Hee
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.438-446
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate food safety awareness, knowledge, and behavior in college students, to provide basic data for the increase in food safety awareness. Data were collected from 252 college students in Gyeonggi region, using a self-administered questionnaire. In results of concern about food safety, subjects responded 3.48 of 5.00 and have knowledge about food safety education revealing significantly higher awareness and concern than subjects without knowledge about food safety education. Food safety awareness of distributed food was 2.55, considered unsafe. Among reasons in perceiving food as unsafe, 62.3% of subjects expressed distrust about safety relative food production. As for risk factors relative to food safety, subjects responded that the highest risk factor was food additives (2.35), followed by heavy metal (2.38) and endocrine disrupters (2.38). Correlation analysis resulting in risk factors for food had positive correlation with each other, heavy metal revealed highest correlation with pesticide residue (r = 0.674), than with endocrine disrupters (r = 0.672). Also, genetically modified food revealed high correlation with radiation irradiated food. Regression analysis demonstrated that concern about food safety significantly influenced pro-actively engaging in food safety education. Meanwhile, 63.5% of subjects correctly responded to food safety knowledge items. The item 'the heavy metals are contaminated the most, in the roots of vegetables' revealed the lowest correct answer rate (38.1%). In food safety behavior, the item 'always wash hands before handling food and meal's revealed 3.85, and subjects with awareness and concern about food safety education, responded in significantly higher numbers than subject without awareness and concern about food safety. The most neglected concern was relative to frozen food thawed at room temperature. Together, students recognize that distributed foods are unsafe, and students with awareness and concern about food safety education showed higher knowledge compared to without awareness and concern experience about food safety eduction. So, systematic education using accurate and objective data is required to reduce anxiety and raise the level of awareness and concern about food safety.

Effect of Land Use Change and Price from the Area Adjustment of National Park in Korea - A Case Study of Woraksan National Park - (국립공원 구역 조정이 토지이용 변화 및 가격에 끼친 영향 - 월악산국립공원을 중심으로 -)

  • Jeon, Kun Chul;Nam, Jin;Cho, Woo
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.639-645
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    • 2018
  • The objective of the study is to analyze the impact of zone adjustment by comparing the changes from 2011 to 2018 of social and environmental factors such as the special-purpose area, actual construction activities including building development, land use environment, and officially assessed individual land price in the areas released from the National Park Zone during the second National Park Zone adjustment during 2010 to 2011 with the social and environmental factors in the areas that remained in the National Park Zone during the same period. We intended to investigate the problems of the second National Park Zone adjustment and explore alternative implications for the third National Park Zone adjustment. As for the special-purpose area, 80.4% of the released areas were converted to planned, production, and conservation area while 15.6% changed to the agricultural area, and 4.0% remained as the natural environmental conservation area. Regarding the change in building development scale, the average size of construction in the released area since 2011 was $106m^2$ while that in the retained areas was $91m^2$. For the land use environment, the rate of change from the natural area to developed area was 1.9% in the released area and 0.7% in the retained area. The officially assessed individual land price increased by 11,911 won in the released area and 4,413 won in the retained area. Although both areas showed an increase in the land price, the difference of officially assessed individual land prices was about 2.5 times. The problem concerning the private property rights of local residents in the national parks is still a challenge, but the second National Park Zone adjustment has resolved the problem significantly. Accordingly, it is necessary to offer the benefits for the residents in the national park area by analyzing the park zoning and park facility planning to present the rational alternative. It is also necessary to establish a support system that encourages the collaborative cooperation between the park authority and residents and assures that the residents to have pride in the national park.

Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Associated with Particulate Matter over South Korea and Their Future Projection (한반도 미세먼지 발생과 연관된 대기패턴 그리고 미래 전망)

  • Lee, Hyun-Ju;Jeong, YeoMin;Kim, Seon-Tae;Lee, Woo-Seop
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.423-433
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    • 2018
  • Particulate matter air pollution is a serious problem affecting human health and visibility. The variations in $PM_{10}$ concentrations are influenced by not only local emission sources, but also atmospheric circulation conditions. In this study, we investigate the temporal features of $PM_{10}$ concentrations in South Korea and the atmospheric circulation patterns associated with high concentration episodes of $PM_{10}$ during winter (December-January-February) 2001-2016. Based on those analyses, a Korea Particulate matter Index (KPI) is developed to represent the large-scale atmospheric pattern associated with high concentration episodes of $PM_{10}$. The atmospheric patterns are characterized by persistent high-pressure anomalies, weakened lower-level north-westerly anomalies, and northward shift of the upper-level meridional wind anomalies near the Korean Peninsula. To evaluate the change in occurrence of high concentration episodes of $PM_{10}$ under a possible future warmer climate, we apply KPI analysis to CMIP5 climate simulations. Here, historical and two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) are used. It is found that the occurrence of atmospheric conditions favorable for high $PM_{10}$ concentration episodes tends to increase over South Korea in response to climate change. This suggests that large-scale atmospheric circulation changes under future warmer climate can contribute to increasing high $PM_{10}$ concentration episodes in South Korea.

Assessing Impacts of Temperature and Carbon Dioxide Based on A1B Climate Change Scenario on Potential Yield of Winter Covered Barley in Korea (A1B 기후변화시나리오에 따른 미래 겉보리 잠재생산성 변화 예측)

  • Shim, Kyo Moon;Lee, Deog Bae;Min, Seong Hyeon;Kim, Gun Yeob;Jeong, Hyun Cheol;Lee, Seul Bi;Kang, Ki Keong
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.2 no.4
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    • pp.317-331
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    • 2011
  • The CERES-Barley crop simulation model of DSSAT package was used to assess the impacts of climate change on potential yield of winter covered barley in Korea. 56 sites over the southern part of Korean peninsula were selected to compare the climate change impacts in various climatic conditions. The climatological normals (1971~2000) and the three future climatological normals (2011~2040, 2041~2070, and 2071~2100), based on A1B climate change scenarios of Korea, were used in this study, and the three future climatological normals were simulated under three environmental conditions, where only temperature change, only carbon dioxide change, and both of temperature and carbon dioxide change with future A1B climate change scenarios, respectively. Results: The CERES-Barley model was suitable for predicting climate change impacts on the potential yield of winter covered barley, because of the agreement between observed and simulated outcomes (e.g., the coefficient of determination of grain yield equals 0.84). (1) The only increased temperature effect with the climate change scenarios was mostly negative to the potential yield of winter covered barley and its magnitude ranges from -21% to +1% for the three future normals. (2) The effect of the only elevated carbon dioxide on the potential yield of winter covered barley was positive and its magnitude ranged from 12% to 43% for the three future normals. (3) For increased temperature and elevated carbon dioxide change cases, potential yields increased by 13%, 21%, 19% increase for the 2011~2040, 2041~2070, 2071~2100 normals, respectively.

Correlation of Unmet Healthcare Needs and Employment Status for a Population over 65 Years of Age (65세 이상 인구의 고용형태와 의료요구 미충족 경험률의 관련성)

  • Kang, Jeong-Hee;Kim, Chul-Woung;Seo, Nam-Kyu
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.281-291
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    • 2017
  • The present study aimed to investigate the rate of unmet healthcare needs for elderly over the age of 65 years, as well as analyze the relevance between employment status and unmet healthcare needs due to financial reasons. With regard to the study method, a logistic regression analysis was performed to investigate the correlation between employment status and unmet healthcare needs due to financial reasons, targeting 5,528 subjects over the age of 65 years. The results showed that the rate of unmet healthcare needs was 18.9%, in which the rate of unmet healthcare needs due to financial reason was 8.1%. The rate of unmet health needs was higher for temporary workers(ORs=1.75) than for retirement workers. However, the rate of unmet healthcare needs caused by financial reasons was higher among day workers(ORs=1.92). In conclusion, in order to prevent unmet healthcare needs for senior Korean patients, it is necessary to not only improve the income security system for the elderly, but also improve the occupational form and level of income of these economically active citizens, considering the increase in average life expectancy. Moreover, it is also necessary to reinforce health insurance coverage systems for settling medical expenses.

A Study on Human Rights Behavior of Korean Care Workerin Long Term Care Facilities: The Interaction Effect of Human Rights Awareness and Service Orientations (장기요양기관 요양보호사의 노인인권옹호행동 영향요인: 개인의 인권의식과 조직의 서비스 지향성을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Min-Kyoung;Kim, Mee-Hye;Kim, Ju-Hyun;Chung, Soon-Dool
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.673-691
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    • 2016
  • As the provision of long-term care policy takes root and with a gradual increase in elderly population, the use of elderly care service has become a growing norm. More than ever, there exists an urgent need for a paradigm shift in the building of an institutional basis for the improvement of care service, from the prevalent practice of 'need based service' toward the concept of 'human rights based service'. A great focus is being shed on care-workers, at the 'front line' of advocating human rights, as their human rights advocacy behaviour is seen as a key variable in providing high quality care service for elders. This study aims to examine how care-workers' individual human rights awareness levels, and the influence of their respective organizations, as an environmental factor, affect their human rights advocacy behaviour. The study includes a comprehensive analysis of the interactions between the regulatory effect of environmental factors (service orientation?) on an organizational level, human rights awareness (individual level) and the service environment (organizational). The analysis sample consisted of 782 registered non-profit corporation of long-term care facilities all over the country in 2014. The findings of the thesis suggest that human rights awareness at individual levels has a significant influence on human rights advocacy behavior. The interaction of human resources management in service orientations was also found to influence human rights advocacy on a significant level. Both human rights awareness at individual level and service orientations at organizational level were thus determined as key variables for improving the human rights awareness of care worker in long-term care facilities in Korea.

A Study on the Application Effect of Central-Grid PV System at a Streetlamp using RETScreen - A Case Study of Gwangjin-gu - (RETScreen을 이용한 가로등의 계통연계형 태양광시스템 적용 효과 분석 - 서울시 광진구를 중심으로 -)

  • Kang, Seongmin;Choi, Bong-Seok;Kim, Seungjin;Mun, Hyo-dong;Lee, Jeongwoo;Park, Nyun-Bae;Jeon, Eui-Chan
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2014
  • With continued economic growth, Korea has seen an increase in the nighttime activities of its citizens as hours of activity have extended into night. There is an increasing trend in energy consumption related to citizens' nighttime activities. In order to analyze ideas for an efficient replacement of the power consumption of streetlights and for profit generation by applying grid-type solar systems, this study used an RETScreen model. Through energy analysis and cost analysis, the application benefit and viability of grid-type solar street light systems were analyzed. With analysis result of a total weekly power generation of 114 kWh via a grid-connected solar streetlight system, it was shown that the net present value of a grid-connected solar street light system is 155,362 KRW, which would mean a payback period of about 5.2 years, and as such, it was shown that profit could be generated after about 6 years. In addition, if the grid-connected solar power generation system proposed by this study is to be applied, it was shown that 401,935 KRW in profit could be generated after the 20-year useful life set for the solar system. In addition, the sensitivity analysis was performed taking into account the price fluctuations of SMP, maintenance. As a result, a payback period has increased by 1~2 years, and there were no significant differences. Because the most important factor that affect the economic analysis is the cost of supply certification of renewable energy, a stable sales and acquisition of this certification are very important. the Seoul-type Feed in Tariff(FIT) connected to other institutions will enable steady sales by confirming to purchase the certification for 12 years. Therefore, if those issues mentioned above are properly reflected, Central-grid PV system project will be able to perform well in the face of unfavorable condition of solar PV installation.

The Spillover Effect of FDI on GDP -Analysis on Myanmar using GARCH and VAR- (외국인 직접투자의 국민소득에 대한 전이효과 -GARCH와 VAR를 이용한 분석-)

  • Yoon, Hyung-Mo
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.41-63
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    • 2017
  • FDI can either be absorbed in the production cycle with domestic investment and create an inducement effect or it can remain as an exogenous factor and increase the volatility of GDP. The purpose of this paper is to research these different impacts that FDI could have. For that, the endogenous growth theory was employed. The statistic method used are the panel model for sectoral analysis, and GARCH model and VAR for time series analysis. Myanmar was selected as this paper's research subject because it is one of countries which had a colossal amount of FDI inflow recently. The panel analysis did not confirm the causality between sectoral FDI and sectoral GDP. The reason for this could be in the lack of data, since sectoral data exists yearly only during 2006-2016. Therefore this study conducted the times series analysis. According to the results, during 2006 until 2010, it showed signs of GARCH but the effect of FDI on GDP was nonexistent, which means FDI was not integrated into the domestic production cycle but stayed in residual terms. During 2011 to 2016, FDI seemed to affect the growth of Myanmar's GDP. The estimation confirmed the existence of GARCH and the Granzer causality test confirmed that FDI influenced the GARCH, which signified FDI increased the volatility of GDP. The VAR analysis showed responses of GDP to FDI was small(about 0.0007). This research assumes that FDI can be divided in two parts: one part which can be assimilated in the domestic production cycle and the other where it stays outside of the production cycle. The former creates production inducement effect and the latter only increases the volatility of GDP. According to this study, the latter outweighs the former impact in Myanmar.