• Title/Summary/Keyword: historical frequency analysis

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Estimation of drought risk through the bivariate drought frequency analysis using copula functions (코플라 함수를 활용한 이변량 가뭄빈도해석을 통한 우리나라 가뭄 위험도 산정)

  • Yu, Ji Soo;Yoo, Ji Young;Lee, Joo-Heon;Kim, Tea-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.217-225
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    • 2016
  • The drought is generally characterized by duration and severity, thus it is required to conduct the bivariate frequency analysis simultaneously considering the drought duration and severity. However, since a bivariate joint probability distribution function (JPDF) has a 3-dimensional space, it is difficult to interpret the results in practice. In order to suggest the technical solution, this study employed copula functions to estimate an JPDF, then developed conditional JPDFs on various drought durations and estimated the critical severity corresponding to non-exceedance probability. Based on the historical severe drought events, the hydrologic risks were investigated for various extreme droughts with 95% non-exceedance probability. For the drought events with 10-month duration, the most hazardous areas were decided to Gwangju, Inje, and Uljin, which have 1.3-2.0 times higher drought occurrence probabilities compared with the national average. In addition, it was observed that southern regions were much higher drought prone areas than northern and central areas.

Study on Physical Characteristics of Historical and Artificial Ground Acceleration (역사지진 및 인공지진의 물리적 특성에 관한 연구)

  • 이대형;정영수;전환석
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.35-44
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    • 1998
  • Because of the continual occurrence of minor and moderate earthquakes in Korean peninsula, it is generally considered that Korean is not located in a safe region against probable earthquake any more, even though being recognized as a safe country in earthquake. It is in particular noted that nowadays there has been much concern about unexpected tragedy due to probable earthquake since the disaster of 1995 kobe earthquake. Thus, the objective of this research is to develop appropriate design spectrum which could be practicably used in seismic design of important structures taking into consideration of local physical characteristics. Particularly, we have to keep in mind the lessons from 1985 Mexico earthquake which had disregarded deep research on local ground conditions, being a possible magnification phenomena of ground motions in weak soil layer. Various spectra has been described based on the analysis of historical earthquakes, and generate the artificial ground acceleration. Also, rational numbers of artificial ground acceleration is investigated by the seismic analysis for skew slab bridges.

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A study on the assessment of wildland fire hazard through statistic examination and calorie analysis according to the geographical distribution of vegetation (통계적 고찰과 수목분포에 따른 열량분석을 통한 산림화재 위험성 평가에 관한 연구)

  • 김광일;김동현
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.27-32
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    • 2000
  • The assessment of wildland fire hazard is the first priority to be considered in the prevention, extinction and control of wildland fire. For the standard to measure wildland fire hazard, the wildland fire Warning System is currently being used in Korea which computes the wildland fire occurrence hazard index through a stick weight to moisture conversion formula. It shows the risk of fuel substance being exposed to fire by meteorological factors. For a comprehensive assessment of wildland fire hazards by area, the major factors'hazards need to be measured and the assessment of wildland fire needs to be conducted through historical statistic examination. Therefore, the wildland (ire outbreak frequency and its seriousness of damage are analyzed through historical statistic examination to conduct the assessment of a wildland fire hazard, and then the calorific value of a forest is analyzed through differential scanning calorimeter measurement which assesses the comparative calorific hazard according to the geographical distribution of vegetation.

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Analysis on the Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Drought using Potential Drought Hazard Map (가뭄우심도를 활용한 가뭄의 시공간적 분포특성분석)

  • Lee, Joo Heon;Cho, Kyeong Joon;Kim, Chang Joo;Park, Min Jae
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.45 no.10
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    • pp.983-995
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    • 2012
  • In this study, it was intended to analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of historical drought events occurred in Korea by way of drought frequency analysis using SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index), and Drought spell was executed to estimate drought frequency as per drought severity and regions. Also, SDF (severity-duration-frequency) curves were prepared per each weather stations to estimate spatial distribution characteristics for the severe drought areas of Korea, and Potential Drought Hazard Map was prepared based on the derived SDF curves. Drought frequency analysis per drought stage revealed that severe drought as well as extreme drought frequency were prominently high at Geum River, Nakdong River, and Seomjin River basin as can be seen from SDF curves, and drought severity was found as severer per each drought return period in the data located at Geum River, Nakdong River, and Seomjin River basins as compared with that of Seoul weather station at Han River basin. In the Potential Drought Hazard Map, it showed that Geum River, Seomjin River, and Yeongsan River basins were drought vulnerable areas as compared to upper streams of Nakdong River basin and Han River basin, and showed similar result in drought frequency per drought stage. Drought was occurred frequently during spring seasons with tendency of frequent short drought spell as indicated in Potential Drought Hazard Map of different season.

Probability Distribution of Rainfall Events Series with Annual Maximum Continuous Rainfall Depths (매년최대 연속강우량에 따른 강우사상 계열의 확률분포에 관한 연구)

  • 박상덕
    • Water for future
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.145-154
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    • 1995
  • The various analyses of the historical rainfall data need to be utilized in a hydraulic engineering project. The probability distributions of the rainfall events according to annual maximum continuous rainfall depths are studied for the hydrologic frequency analysis. The bivariate normal distribution, the bivariate lognormal distribution, and the bivariate gamma distribution are applied to the rainfall events composed of rainfall depths and its durations at Kangnung, Seoul, Incheon, Chupungnyung, Teagu, Jeonju, Kwangju, and Busan. These rainfall events are fitted to the the bivariate normal distribution and the bivariate lognormal distribution, but not fitted to the bivariate gamma distribution. Frequency curves of probability rainfall events are suggested from the probability distribution selected by the goodness-of-fit test.

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Development of A Single Reservoir Agricultural Drought Evaluation Model for Paddy (단일저수지 농업가뭄평가모형의 개발)

  • Chung, Ha-Woo;Choi, Jin-Yong;Park, Ki-Wook;Bae, Seung-Jong;Jang, Min-Won
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.17-30
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    • 2004
  • This study aimed to develop an agricultural drought assessment methodology for irrigated paddy field districts from a single reservoir. Agricultural drought was defined as the reservoir storage shortage state that cannot satisfy water requirement from the paddy fields. The suggested model, SRADEMP (a Single Reservoir Agricultural Drought Evaluation Model for Paddy), was composed of 4 submodels: PWBM (Paddy Water Balance Model), RWBM (Reservoir Water Balance Model), FA (Frequency and probability Analysis model), and DCI (Drought Classification and Indexing model). Two indices, PDF (Paddy Drought Frequency) and PDI (Paddy Drought Index) were also introduced to classify agricultural drought severity Both values were divided into 4 steps, i.e. normal, moderate drought, severe drought, and extreme drought. Each step of PDI was ranged from +4.2 to -1.39, from -1.39 to -3.33, from -3.33 to -4.0 and less than -4.0, respectively. SRADEMP was applied to Jangheung reservoir irrigation district, and the results showed good relationships between simulated results and the observed data including historical drought records showing that SRADEMP explains better the drought conditions in irrigated paddy districts than PDSI.

Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Frequency in the Western North Pacific using GDAPS Ensemble Prediction System (GDAPS 앙상블 예보 시스템을 이용한 북서태평양에서의 태풍 발생 계절 예측)

  • Kim, Ji-Sun;Kwon, H. Joe
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.269-279
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    • 2007
  • This study investigates the possibility of seasonal prediction for tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific by using a dynamical modeling approach. We use data from the SMIP/HFP (Seasonal Prediction Model Inter-comparison Project/Historical Forecast Project) experiment with the Korea Meteorological Administration's GDAPS (Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System) T106 model, focusing our analysis on model-generated tropical cyclones. It is found that the prediction depends primarily on the tropical cyclone (TC) detecting criteria. Additionally, a scaling factor and a different weighting to each ensemble member are found to be essential for the best predictions of summertime TC activity. This approach indeed shows a certain skill not only in the category forecast but in the standard verifications such as Brier score and relative operating characteristics (ROC).

A novel Kohonen neural network and wavelet transform based approach to Industrial load forecasting for peak demand control (최대수요관리를 위한 코호넨 신경회로망과 웨이브릿 변환을 이용한 산업체 부하예측)

  • Kim, Chang-Il;Yu, In-Keun
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2000.07a
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    • pp.301-303
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    • 2000
  • This paper presents Kohonen neural network and wavelet transform analysis based technique for industrial peak load forecasting for the purpose of peak demand control. Firstly, one year of historical load data were sorted and clustered into several groups using Kohonen neural network and then wavelet transforms are adopted using the Biorthogonal mother wavelet in order to forecast the peak load of one hour ahead. The 5-level decomposition of the daily industrial load curve is implemented to consider the weather sensitive component of loads effectively. The wavelet coefficients associated with certain frequency and time localization is adjusted using the conventional multiple regression method and the components are reconstructed to predict the final loads through a six-scale synthesis technique.

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Review of Injection-Locked Oscillators

  • Choo, Min-Seong;Jeong, Deog-Kyoon
    • Journal of Semiconductor Engineering
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2020
  • Handling precise timing in high-speed transceivers has always been a primary design target to achieve better performance. Many different approaches have been tried, and one of those is utilizing the beneficial nature of injection locking. Though the phenomenon was not intended for building integrated circuits at first, its coupling effect between neighboring oscillators has been utilized deliberately. Consequently, the dynamics of the injection-locked oscillator (ILO) have been explored, starting from R. Adler. As many aspects of the ILO were revealed, further studies followed to utilize the technique in practice, suggesting alternatives to the conventional frequency syntheses, which tend to be complicated and expensive. In this review, the historical analysis techniques from R. Adler are studied for better comprehension with proper notation of the variables, resulting in numerical results. In addition, how the timing jitter or phase noise in the ILO is attenuated from noise sources is presented in contrast to the clock generators based on the phase-locked loop (PLL). Although the ILO is very promising with higher cost effectiveness and better noise immunity than other schemes, unless correctly controlled or tuned, the promises above might not be realized. In order to present the favorable conditions, several strategies have been explored in diverse applications like frequency multiplication, data recovery, frequency division, clock distribution, etc. This paper reviews those research results for clock multiplication and data recovery in detail with their advantages and disadvantages they are referring to. Through this review, the readers will hopefully grasp the overall insight of the ILO, as well as its practical issues, in order to incorporate it on silicon successfully.

Development of Risk Assessment Models for Railway Casualty Accidents (철도 사상사고 위험도 평가 모델 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Chan-Woo;Wang, Jong-Bae;Kim, Min-Su;Choi, Don-Bum;Kwak, Sang-Log
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.190-198
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    • 2009
  • This study shows the developing process of the risk assessment models for railway casualty accidents. To evaluate the risks of these accidents, the hazardous events and the hazardous factors were identified by the review of the accident history and engineering interpretation of the accident behavior. The frequency of each hazardous event was evaluated from the historical accident data and structured expert judgments by using the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) technique. In addition, to assess the severity of each hazardous event, the ETA (Event Tree Analysis) technique and other safety techniques were applied. The risk assessment models developed can be effectively utilized in defining the risk reduction measures in connection with the option analysis.