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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2016.49.3.217

Estimation of drought risk through the bivariate drought frequency analysis using copula functions  

Yu, Ji Soo (Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University)
Yoo, Ji Young (Dept. of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University)
Lee, Joo-Heon (Dept. of Civil Engineering, Joongbu University)
Kim, Tea-Woong (Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.49, no.3, 2016 , pp. 217-225 More about this Journal
Abstract
The drought is generally characterized by duration and severity, thus it is required to conduct the bivariate frequency analysis simultaneously considering the drought duration and severity. However, since a bivariate joint probability distribution function (JPDF) has a 3-dimensional space, it is difficult to interpret the results in practice. In order to suggest the technical solution, this study employed copula functions to estimate an JPDF, then developed conditional JPDFs on various drought durations and estimated the critical severity corresponding to non-exceedance probability. Based on the historical severe drought events, the hydrologic risks were investigated for various extreme droughts with 95% non-exceedance probability. For the drought events with 10-month duration, the most hazardous areas were decided to Gwangju, Inje, and Uljin, which have 1.3-2.0 times higher drought occurrence probabilities compared with the national average. In addition, it was observed that southern regions were much higher drought prone areas than northern and central areas.
Keywords
bivariate drought frequency analysis; copula; critical severity; drought risk;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 4  (Citation Analysis)
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