• Title/Summary/Keyword: high resolution numerical prediction system

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Predictions of Local Circulation and Dispersion with Microscale Numerical Model (수치모의를 통한 미세규모 순환과 확산에 대한 예측)

  • 안광득;이용희;장동언;조천호
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.147-158
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    • 2003
  • The prediction of wind field is very important fact in the radioactive and chemical warfare. In spite of advanced numerical weather prediction modelling and computing technology, the high resolution prediction of wind field is limited by the very high integration costs. In this study we coupled the mesoscale numerical model and microscale diagnostic numerical model with minimized integration costs. This coupled model has not only the ability of prediction of high resolution wind field including complex building but also microscale pollutant diffusion fields. For military operation this system can help making a practical and cost-effective decision in a battle field.

Development and Evaluation of the High Resolution Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System in the Korea Meteorological Administration (기상청 고해상도 국지 앙상블 예측 시스템 구축 및 성능 검증)

  • Kim, SeHyun;Kim, Hyun Mee;Kay, Jun Kyung;Lee, Seung-Woo
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.67-83
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    • 2015
  • Predicting the location and intensity of precipitation still remains a main issue in numerical weather prediction (NWP). Resolution is a very important component of precipitation forecasts in NWP. Compared with a lower resolution model, a higher resolution model can predict small scale (i.e., storm scale) precipitation and depict convection structures more precisely. In addition, an ensemble technique can be used to improve the precipitation forecast because it can estimate uncertainties associated with forecasts. Therefore, NWP using both a higher resolution model and ensemble technique is expected to represent inherent uncertainties of convective scale motion better and lead to improved forecasts. In this study, the limited area ensemble prediction system for the convective-scale (i.e., high resolution) operational Unified Model (UM) in Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) was developed and evaluated for the ensemble forecasts during August 2012. The model domain covers the limited area over the Korean Peninsula. The high resolution limited area ensemble prediction system developed showed good skill in predicting precipitation, wind, and temperature at the surface as well as meteorological variables at 500 and 850 hPa. To investigate which combination of horizontal resolution and ensemble member is most skillful, the system was run with three different horizontal resolutions (1.5, 2, and 3 km) and ensemble members (8, 12, and 16), and the forecasts from the experiments were evaluated. To assess the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) skill of the system, the precipitation forecasts for two heavy rainfall cases during the study period were analyzed using the Fractions Skill Score (FSS) and Probability Matching (PM) method. The PM method was effective in representing the intensity of precipitation and the FSS was effective in verifying the precipitation forecast for the high resolution limited area ensemble prediction system in KMA.

Implementation of Spatial Downscaling Method Based on Gradient and Inverse Distance Squared (GIDS) for High-Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction Data (고해상도 수치예측자료 생산을 위한 경도-역거리 제곱법(GIDS) 기반의 공간 규모 상세화 기법 활용)

  • Yang, Ah-Ryeon;Oh, Su-Bin;Kim, Joowan;Lee, Seung-Woo;Kim, Chun-Ji;Park, Soohyun
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.185-198
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    • 2021
  • In this study, we examined a spatial downscaling method based on Gradient and Inverse Distance Squared (GIDS) weighting to produce high-resolution grid data from a numerical weather prediction model over Korean Peninsula with complex terrain. The GIDS is a simple and effective geostatistical downscaling method using horizontal distance gradients and an elevation. The predicted meteorological variables (e.g., temperature and 3-hr accumulated rainfall amount) from the Limited-area ENsemble prediction System (LENS; horizontal grid spacing of 3 km) are used for the GIDS to produce a higher horizontal resolution (1.5 km) data set. The obtained results were compared to those from the bilinear interpolation. The GIDS effectively produced high-resolution gridded data for temperature with the continuous spatial distribution and high dependence on topography. The results showed a better agreement with the observation by increasing a searching radius from 10 to 30 km. However, the GIDS showed relatively lower performance for the precipitation variable. Although the GIDS has a significant efficiency in producing a higher resolution gridded temperature data, it requires further study to be applied for rainfall events.

Sensitivity Analysis of Numerical Weather Prediction Model with Topographic Effect in the Radiative Transfer Process (복사전달과정에서 지형효과에 따른 기상수치모델의 민감도 분석)

  • Jee, Joon-Bum;Min, Jae-Sik;Jang, Min;Kim, Bu-Yo;Zo, Il-Sung;Lee, Kyu-Tae
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.385-398
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    • 2017
  • Numerical weather prediction experiments were carried out by applying topographic effects to reduce or enhance the solar radiation by terrain. In this study, x and ${\kappa}({\phi}_o,\;{\theta}_o)$ are precalculated for topographic effect on high resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) with 1 km spatial resolution, and meteorological variables are analyzed through the numerical experiments. For the numerical simulations, cases were selected in winter (CASE 1) and summer (CASE 2). In the CASE 2, topographic effect was observed on the southward surface to enhance the solar energy reaching the surface, and enhance surface temperature and temperature at 2 m. Especially, the surface temperature is changed sensitively due to the change of the solar energy on the surface, but the change of the precipitation is difficult to match of topographic effect. As a result of the verification using Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) Automated Weather System (AWS) data on Seoul metropolitan area, the topographic effect is very weak in the winter case. In the CASE 1, the improvement of accuracy was numerically confirmed by decreasing the bias and RMSE (Root mean square error) of temperature at 2 m, wind speed at 10 m and relative humidity. However, the accuracy of rainfall prediction (Threat score (TS), BIAS, equitable threat score (ETS)) with topographic effect is decreased compared to without topographic effect. It is analyzed that the topographic effect improves the solar radiation on surface and affect the enhancements of surface temperature, 2 meter temperature, wind speed, and PBL height.

Comparative Study on the Accuracy of Surface Air Temperature Prediction based on selection of land use and initial meteorological data (토지이용도와 초기 기상 입력 자료의 선택에 따른 지상 기온 예측 정확도 비교 연구)

  • Hae-Dong Kim;Ha-Young Kim
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.435-442
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    • 2024
  • We investigated the accuracy of surface air temperature prediction according to the selection of land-use data and initial meteorological data using the Weather Research and Forecasting model-v4.2.1. A numerical experiment was conducted at the Daegu Dyeing Industrial Complex. We initially used meteorological input data from GFS (Global forecast system)and GDAPS (Global data assimilation and prediction system). High-resolution input data were generated and used as input data for the weather model using the land cover data of the Ministry of Environment and the digital elevation model of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport. The experiment was conducted by classifying the terrestrial and topographic data (land cover data) and meteorological data applied to the model. For simulations using high-resolution terrestrial data(10 m), global data assimilation, and prediction system data(CASE 3), the calculated surface temperature was much closer to the automatic weather station observations than for simulations using low-resolution terrestrial data(900 m) and GFS(CASE 1).

A Numerical Weather Prediction System for Military Operation Based on PC cluster (작전기상 지원을 위한 PC 클러스터 기반의 기상수치예보시스템)

  • 이용희;장동언;안광득;조천호
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.45-55
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    • 2003
  • Weather conditions have played a vital role in a war. Many historical records reported that the miss use of weather information is the main reason of the lost a war. In this study we demonstrated the possibility of applying the numerical weather prediction system(NWPS) for military operations. The NWPS consists of PC-cluster as a super computer, data assimilation system ingesting many remote sensing observation, and graphic systems. High resolution prediction in NWPS can provide useful weather information such as wind, temperature, sea fog and so on for military operations.

Numerical Study on the Impact of the Spatial Resolution of Wind Map in the Korean Peninsula on the Accuracy of Wind Energy Resources Estimation (한반도 풍력 자원 지도의 공간 해상도가 풍력자원 예측 정확도에 미치는 영향에 관한 수치연구)

  • Lee, Soon-Hwan;Lee, Hwa-Woon;Kim, Dong-Hyuk;Kim, Min-Jung;Kim, Hyun-Goo
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.18 no.8
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    • pp.885-897
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    • 2009
  • In order to make sure the impact of spatial resolution of wind energy map on the estimation of wind power density in the Korean Peninsula, the comparison studies on the characteristics of wind energy map with three different spatial resolutions were carried out. Numerical model used in the establishment of wind map is MM5 (5th generation Mesoscale Model) with RBAPS (Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System) as initial and boundary data. Analyzed Period are four months (March, August, October, and December), which are representative of four seasons. Since high spatial resolution of wind map make the undulation of topography be clear, wind pattern in high resolution wind map is correspond well with topography pattern and maximum value of wind speed is also increase. Indication of island and mountains in wind energy map depends on the its spatial resolution, so wind patterns in Heuksan island and Jiri mountains are clearly different in high and low resolutions. And area averaged power density can be changed by estimation method of wind speed for unit area in the numerical model and by treatment of air density. Therefore the studiable resolution for the topography should be evaluated and set before the estimation of wind resources in the Korean Peninsula.

Low Level Wind Shear Characteristics and Predictability at the Jeju International Airport (제주국제공항 저층급변풍 발생 특성 및 예측 성능)

  • Geun-Hoi Kim;Hee-Wook Choi;Jae-Hyeok Seok;Sang-Sam Lee;Yong Hee Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.50-58
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    • 2023
  • Sudden wind changes at low altitudes pose a significant threat to aircraft operations. In particular, airports located in regions with complex terrain are susceptible to frequent abrupt wind variations, affecting aircraft takeoff and landing. To mitigate these risks, Low Level Wind shear Alert System (LLWAS) have been implemented at airports. This study focuses on understanding the characteristics of wind shear and developing a prediction model for Jeju International Airport, which experiences frequent wind shear due to the influence of Halla Mountain and its surrounding terrain. Using two years of LLWAS data, the study examines the occurrence patterns of wind shear at Jeju International Airport. Additionally, high-resolution numerical model is utilized to produce forecasted information on wind shear. Furthermore, a comparison is made between the predicted wind shear and LLWAS observation data to assess the prediction performance. The results demonstrate that the prediction model shows high accuracy in predicting wind shear caused by southerly winds.

High Resolution Gyeonggi-do Agrometeorology Information Analysis System based on the Observational Data using Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) (LAPS와 관측자료를 이용한 고해상도 경기도 농업기상정보 분석시스템)

  • Chun, Ji-Min;Kim, Kyu-Rang;Lee, Seon-Yong;Kang, Wee-Soo;Park, Jong-Sun;Yi, Chae-Yon;Choi, Young-Jean;Park, Eun-Woo;Hong, Sun-Sung
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.53-62
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    • 2012
  • Demand for high resolution weather data grows in the agriculture and forestry fields. Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) can be used to analyze the local weather at high spatial and temporal resolution, utilizing the data from various sources including numerical weather prediction models, wind or temperature profilers, Automated Weather Station (AWS) networks, radars, and satellites. LAPS has been set to analyze weather elements such as air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and wind direction every hour at the spatial resolution of $100m{\times}100m$ for Gyeonggi-do on near real-time basis. The AWS data were revised by adding the agricultural field AWS data (33 stations) in addition to the KMA data. The analysis periods were from 1 to 31 August 2009 and from 15 to 21 February 2010. The comparison of the LAPS output showed the smaller errors when using the agricultural AWS observation data together with the KMA data as its input data than using only either the agricultural or KMA AWS data. The accuracy of the current system needs improvement by further optimization of analyzing options of the system. However, the system is highly applicable to various fields in agriculture and forestry because it can provide site specific data with reasonable time intervals.

A Study on Developing a High-Resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of a Tunnel Face (터널 막장면 고해상도 DEM(Digital Elevation Model) 생성에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Kwang-Yeom;Kim, Chang-Yong;Baek, Seung-Han;Hong, Sung-Wan;Lee, Seung-Do
    • Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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    • 2006.03a
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    • pp.931-938
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    • 2006
  • Using high resolution stereoscopic imaging system three digital elevation model of tunnel face is acquired. The images oriented within a given tunnel coordinate system are brought into a stereoscopic vision system enabling three dimensional inspection and evaluation. The possibilities for the prediction ahead and outside of tunnel face have been improved by the digital vision system with 3D model. Interpolated image structures of rock mass between subsequent stereo images will enable to model the rock mass surrounding the opening within a short time at site. The models shall be used as input to numerical simulations on site, comparison of expected and encountered geological conditions, and for the interpretation of geotechnical monitoring results.

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