• 제목/요약/키워드: hazard model

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AUTOMATED HAZARD IDENTIFICATION FRAMEWORK FOR THE PROACTIVE CONSIDERATION OF CONSTRUCTION SAFETY

  • JunHyuk Kwon;Byungil Kim;SangHyun Lee;Hyoungkwan Kim
    • 국제학술발표논문집
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    • The 5th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • pp.60-65
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    • 2013
  • Introducing the concept of construction safety in the design/engineering phase can improve the efficiency and effectiveness of safety management on construction sites. In this sense, further improvements for safety can be made in the design/engineering phase through the development of (1) an automated hazard identification process that is little dependent on user knowledge, (2) an automated construction schedule generation to accommodate varying hazard information over time, and (3) a visual representation of the results that is easy to understand. In this paper, we formulate an automated hazard identification framework for construction safety by extracting hazard information from related regulations to eliminate human interventions, and by utilizing a visualization technique in order to enhance users' understanding on hazard information. First, the hazard information is automatically extracted from textual safety and health regulations (i.e., Occupational Safety Health Administration (OSHA) Standards) by using natural language processing (NLP) techniques without users' interpretations. Next, scheduling and sequencing of the construction activities are automatically generated with regard to the 3D building model. Then, the extracted hazard information is integrated into the geometry data of construction elements in the industry foundation class (IFC) building model using a conformity-checking algorithm within the open source 3D computer graphics software. Preliminary results demonstrate that this approach is advantageous in that it can be used in the design/engineering phases of construction without the manual interpretation of safety experts, facilitating the designers' and engineers' proactive consideration for improving safety management.

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GIS 기반의 뿌리보강모델을 활용한 산사태 위험도 작성방법 연구 (GIS Landslide Hazard Mapping Using Root Strength Reinforcement Model)

  • 김민구;윤영진;장훈
    • 대한공간정보학회지
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    • 제13권1호
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    • pp.45-53
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    • 2005
  • 우리나라는 전 국토의 약 70%가 산지로 구성되어 있고, 장마 및 태풍 등에 의해 산사태가 매년 발생하여 큰 피해를 주고 있는 실정이다. 이것은 또한, 도시의 팽창과 더불어 산업화의 발전에 의해서도 해마다 그 발생횟수가 증가하고 있다. 2002년 8월 발생한 태풍 루사는 우리나라 곳곳에 심각한 영향을 끼쳤으며, 특히 강원도 강릉 지역에 가장 큰 피해를 야기했다. 이런 위험 지역의 삼림이나 산사태 관리를 위해 산사태 위험도가 반드시 필요하다고 여겨진다. 지리정보 시스템(GIS)은 산사태 위험도를 제작하기에 시간 뿐 아니라, 노동력과 비용을 경감시킬 수 있을 뿐만 아니라, 위험 지역에 대한 조사와 공간적 예측 모델을 구축하는데 효과적으로 활용될 수 있다. 다양한 방법들로 산사태 위험도를 제작할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는, 뿌리보강 모델을 활용하였다. 이 모델은 경사도, 토심, 토양의 특성과 식생과 같은 인자들을 활용하여 산사태 위험도를 작성하였다.

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GIS overlay analysis for hazard assessment of drought in Iran using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)

  • Asrari, Elham;Masoudi, Masoud;Hakimi, Somaye Sadat
    • Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • 제35권4호
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    • pp.323-329
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    • 2012
  • The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is a widely used drought index to provide good estimations of the intensity, magnitude and spatial extent of droughts. The objective of this study was to analyze the spatial pattern of drought by SPI index. In this paper, the patterns of drought hazard in Iran are evaluated according to the data of 40 weather stations during 1967-2009. The influenced zone of each station was specified by the Thiessen method. It was attempted to make a new model of drought hazard using GIS. Three criteria for drought were studied and considered to define areas of vulnerability. Drought hazard criteria used in the present model included: maximum severity of drought in the period, trend of drought, and the maximum number of sequential arid years. Each of the vulnerability indicators were mapped and these as well as a final hazard map were classified into 5 hazard classes of drought: one, slight, moderate, severe and very severe. The final drought vulnerability map was prepared by overlaying three criteria maps in a GIS, and the final hazard classes were defined on the basis of hazard scores, which were determined according to the means of the main indicators. The final vulnerability map shows that severe hazard areas (43% of the country) which are observed in the west and eastern parts of country are much more widespread than areas under other hazard classes. Overall, approximately half of the country was determined to be under severe and very severe hazard classes for drought.

센서네트워크 데이터를 활용한 화생방 위험예측 모델 (NBC Hazard Prediction Model using Sensor Network Data)

  • 홍세훈;권태욱
    • 한국군사과학기술학회지
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    • 제13권5호
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    • pp.917-923
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    • 2010
  • The local area weather information is very important element to estimate where the air-pollutant will flow. But the existing NBC hazard prediction model does not consider the local area weather information. So, in this paper, we present SN-HPM that uses the local area wether information to perform more accurate and reliable estimate, and embody it to program.

Optimal Periodic PM Schedules Under $ARI_1$ Model with Different Pattern of Wear-Out Speed

  • Lim Jae-Hak
    • 한국신뢰성학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국신뢰성학회 2005년도 학술발표대회 논문집
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    • pp.121-129
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    • 2005
  • In this paper, we consider a periodic preventive maintenance(PM) policy in which each PM reduces the hazard rate of amount proportional to the failure intensity, which increases since the last PM and slows down the wear-out speed to that of new one. And the proportion of reduction in hazard rate decreases with the number of PMs. Our model is similar to $ARI_1$ proposed by Doyen and Gaudoin(2004) in the sense of reduction of hazard rate. Our model has totally different wear-out pattern of hazard rate after PM's, however, and the proportion of reduction depends on the number of PM's. Assuming that the system undergoes only minimal repairs at failures between PM's, the expected cost rate per unit time is obtained. The optimal number N of PM and the optimal period x, which minimize the expected cost rate per unit time are discussed. Explicit solutions for the optimal periodic PM are given for the Weibull distribution case.

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Estimating causal effect of multi-valued treatment from observational survival data

  • Kim, Bongseong;Kim, Ji-Hyun
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • 제27권6호
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    • pp.675-688
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    • 2020
  • In survival analysis of observational data, the inverse probability weighting method and the Cox proportional hazards model are widely used when estimating the causal effects of multiple-valued treatment. In this paper, the two kinds of weights have been examined in the inverse probability weighting method. We explain the reason why the stabilized weight is more appropriate when an inverse probability weighting method using the generalized propensity score is applied. We also emphasize that a marginal hazard ratio and the conditional hazard ratio should be distinguished when defining the hazard ratio as a treatment effect under the Cox proportional hazards model. A simulation study based on real data is conducted to provide concrete numerical evidence.

모바일 GIS에 의한 홍수재해관리 (Flood Hazard Management Using Mobile GIS)

  • 강택순;강성봉;손홍규;유환희
    • 한국측량학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국측량학회 2003년도 추계학술발표회 논문집
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    • pp.297-302
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    • 2003
  • Recently, Flood hazard has been increased frequently in urban area by rainfall and Typhoon. To manage flood hazard effectively, it needs to construction of flood information management system. Especially, run-off by flood in urban area must be considered not only surface outflow by topographic gradient and elevation but also conduits outflow along conduit network. This paper suggests the flood hazard management system for analyzing flood outflow in urban area using conduits outflow simulation by ILLUDAS model and providing quickly flood hazard information using WebGIS and MobileGIS.

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확률론적 지진재해도 분석을 위한 지진원 모델의 민감도 분석 (Sensitivity Analysis of Seismic Source Models for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis)

  • 김연중;전정윤;김태균
    • 한국지진공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국지진공학회 2003년도 추계 학술발표회논문집
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    • pp.36-45
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    • 2003
  • Sensitivity analyses for several seismic source models were studied. For the area sources, the hazard is steeply decreasing with the source-to-site distance. Hazard is decreasing when the area of the source is increasing with fixed annual rate. For the fault sources, the fault length, distance from a site and dip angle of near fault show very sensitive effect to seismic hazard. But the various magnitude-rupture length relationships show effect to seismic hazard slightly. For the fault source with small magnitude, the exponential model is preferred rather than the characteristic model to the magnitude-recurrence law.

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Earthquake hazard and risk assessment of a typical Natural Gas Combined Cycle Power Plant (NGCCPP) control building

  • A. Can Zulfikar;Seyhan Okuyan Akcan;Ali Yesilyurt;Murat Eroz;Tolga Cimili
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • 제35권6호
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    • pp.581-591
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    • 2023
  • North Anatolian Fault Zone is tectonically active with recent earthquakes (Mw7.6 1999-Kocaeli and Mw7.2 1999-Düzce earthquakes) and it passes through Marmara region, which is highly industrialized, densely populated and economically important part of Turkey. Many power plants, located in Marmara region, are exposed to high seismic hazard. In this study, open source OpenQuake software has been used for the probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis of Marmara region and risk assessment for the specified energy facility. The SHARE project seismic zonation model has been used in the analysis with the regional sources, NGA GMPEs and site model logic trees. The earthquake hazard results have been compared with the former and existing earthquake resistant design regulations in Turkey, TSC 2007 and TBSCD 2018. In the scope of the study, the seismic hazard assessment for a typical natural gas combined cycle power plant located in Marmara region has been achieved. The seismic risk assessment has been accomplished for a typical control building located in the power plant using obtained seismic hazard results. The structural and non-structural fragility functions and a consequence model have been used in the seismic risk assessment. Based on the seismic hazard level with a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, considered for especially these type of critical structures, the ratios of structural and non-structural loss to the total building cost were obtained as 8.8% and 45.7%, respectively. The results of the study enable the practical seismic risk assessment of the critical facility located on different regions.

Diagnostics for the Cox model

  • Xue, Yishu;Schifano, Elizabeth D.
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • 제24권6호
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    • pp.583-604
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    • 2017
  • The most popular regression model for the analysis of time-to-event data is the Cox proportional hazards model. While the model specifies a parametric relationship between the hazard function and the predictor variables, there is no specification regarding the form of the baseline hazard function. A critical assumption of the Cox model, however, is the proportional hazards assumption: when the predictor variables do not vary over time, the hazard ratio comparing any two observations is constant with respect to time. Therefore, to perform credible estimation and inference, one must first assess whether the proportional hazards assumption is reasonable. As with other regression techniques, it is also essential to examine whether appropriate functional forms of the predictor variables have been used, and whether there are any outlying or influential observations. This article reviews diagnostic methods for assessing goodness-of-fit for the Cox proportional hazards model. We illustrate these methods with a case-study using available R functions, and provide complete R code for a simulated example as a supplement.