• Title/Summary/Keyword: future forecast

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A Study on the Architectural Plan Composition in High School which Designed to the Department System (교과교실형 고등학교의 건축 평면적 특성 연구)

  • Lee, Yong-Hwan;Lee, Young-Soo
    • The Journal of Sustainable Design and Educational Environment Research
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.49-58
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    • 2010
  • The Ministry of educational science and technology is about to conduct its 7th &8th curriculum. However, there are some problems in achieving its goals under the current class model system in both educational and architectural. This study finds the characteristics of the arrangements and architectural planning in the departmental system - designed high schools. As a result, the arrangement was tend to be 'overall type' or 'central type' depending on the teaching-learning efficiency. Liberal arts and science&technology groups were placed close, and foreign languages and general cultural studies were arranged close as well. Importantly, there were supporting facilities such as a gymnasium, a cafeteria, a library, a computer lab, and an all-purpose-room, and this arrangement provided convenience. It is for the better learning effect and the high efficiency. It is worthy noticing that the placement and formation of individual or study space is regarded importantly. In flow planning, it seemed that it was designed to reduce the users' movement to a minimum. However, there are still some problems compared to Japan or the States, who already has an established departmental system. I think that the government should enforce its necessity of planning to schools, relevant divisions, or architects to bring it up. Furthermore, it is urgently needed a practical and future-oriented study that can forecast any changes in architectural spaces within the ever-changing teaching and learning environment in the information-oriented society.

The Characteristics of the Repair Cost Distribution in Apartment Housing

  • Lee, KangHee;Chae, ChangU
    • KIEAE Journal
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.19-26
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    • 2015
  • Purpose: The repair would require to conserve and improve the building function and performance since built. Each household is responsible for maintaining the public facilities and paying the required cost. Therefore, it needs to get the tool or method to forecast the required cost in the future. Before the repair cost is provided, it needs to catch the repair cost distribution and provide the unit cost for the repair cycle. In this study, it aimed at providing the repair cost unit and analyzing the repair cost distribution in a roof proofing work, elevator work and building painting, which are divided into a fully work and partly change. Results of this study are shown that first, the average repair cost for roof proofing work is provided with $166.59{\times}10^3won/household$ and $1.59{\times}10^3won/m^2$ of a full change, $33.22{\times}10^3won/household$ and $0.33{\times}10^3won/m^2$ for a partly work. In addition, elevator work is $557.45{\times}10^3won/household$ and $5.38{\times}10^3won/m^2$ for a full change, $32.92{\times}10^3won/household$ and $0.56{\times}10^3won/m^2$ for a partly repair. Painting has a $304.48{\times}10^3won/household$ and $2.94{\times}10^3won/m^2$. Second, the distribution pattern of repair unit cost has a weibull-typed distribution which has a long tail to the right.

A Study on Mobile Game Security Threats by Analyzing Malicious Behavior of Auto Program of Clash of Clans (클래시 오브 클랜 오토 프로그램의 악성 행위 분석을 통한 모바일 게임 보안 위협에 관한 연구)

  • Heo, Geon Il;Heo, Cheong Il;Kim, Huy Kang
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.1361-1376
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    • 2015
  • Recently, the size of the mobile game market and the number of mobile game users are growing. Also, as the mobile game's life cycle is increasing at the same time, auto program issue reappears which has been appeared in PC online games. Gamers usually tend to ignore warning messages from antivirus programs and even worse they delete antivirus program to execute auto programs. Therefore, mobile game users are easily compromised if the auto program performs malicious behaviors not only for the original features. In this paper, we analyze whether seven auto programs of "clash of clans" which has a lot more users for a long time perform malicious behaviors or not. We forecast the possible security threats in near future and proposed countermeasures based on this analysis. By analyzing auto programs of highly popular mobile game of today, we can acquire the knowledge on auto program's recent trend such as their development platform, operating mode, etc. This analysis will help security analysts predict auto program's evolving trends and block potential threats in advance.

A Quantitative Performance Measurement on the Construction Technology R&D Projects through Research Characteristic (연구개발 사업의 특성을 고려한 건설 R&D의 정량적 성과측정)

  • Park, Sang-Hyuk;Jung, Hoe-Young;Han, seung-Heon
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.119-128
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    • 2009
  • The construction R&D(Research & Development) has various performance according to research charater. But present performance evaluation form evaluates project rather than charater of research. The important reasons that evaluats the performance are to try conclusions with evaluated objects in the short run, but to forecast the performance of future construction R&D and to get the better performance. Thus this study extracts the RPI(Research Performanc Index) with output as the conter, developes the estimation method and measures the quantitative performance. Applying the ANOVA(Analysis of Variance), it is proved that the performance according to research charater is various. And applying the Correspondence Analysis, it is analised the relationship with performance and research charater. The purposes of this study are to idetify the problem of uniform performance evaluation and to improve it.

A Study for Estimation of Link Travel Time Using Chaos Theory (카오스이론을 이용한 링크통행시간 산정)

  • 노승만;이인원
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.115-126
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    • 1999
  • Past nears many Studies have been described for present state and forecasted for the future phenomena in various areas. Many theories and methodologies in transportation have been developed and applied by researchers and planners. On the other hand, many theories and methodologies had disappeared caused by their critical limitations. One of this cause that was discovered of the Chaos in traffic flows. The occurrence of Chaos in traffic flows has affected to the traffic volume and decreased significancy of a simulation result of a specific traffic flow. According to this fact, long-term forecast of traffic flow is difficult, moreover a butterfly effect impedes development and establishment of transportation model. A methodology to solve Chaos character in traffic flow can be able to provide more effective transport planning. This study tackles to enhance and revise the existing theories for the traffic flow applying Chaos theory to estimating travel time.

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TFN model application for hourly flood prediction of small river (소규모 하천의 시간단위 홍수예측을 위한 TFN 모형 적용성 검토)

  • Sung, Ji Youn;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.2
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    • pp.165-174
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    • 2018
  • The model using time series data can be considered as a flood forecasting model of a small river due to its efficiency for model development and the advantage of rapid simulation for securing predicted time when reliable data are obtained. Transfer Function Noise (TFN) model has been applied hourly flood forecast in Italy, and UK since 1970s, while it has mainly been used for long-term simulations in daily or monthly basis in Korea. Recently, accumulating hydrological data with good quality have made it possible to simulate hourly flood prediction. The purpose of this study is to assess the TFN model applicability that can reflect exogenous variables by combining dynamic system and error term to reduce prediction error for tributary rivers. TFN model with hourly data had better results than result from Storage Function Model (SFM), according to the flood events. And it is expected to expand to similar sized streams in the future.

A Study on the Changes of the Library's Bookshelves by the Morphological Evolution of Knowledge-Information - Focus on the History of Western Libraries before the 20th Century - (지식정보의 형태적 진화와 도서관 서가의 변천에 관한 연구 - 20세기이전의 서양도서관사를 중심으로 -)

  • Hwang, Mee-Young
    • Korean Institute of Interior Design Journal
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.90-98
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    • 2010
  • This study intends to understand the change of the library's bookshelves shape, composition and arrangement based on the social-culture in each period. For this purpose, this study analyzes the morphological shift of the library's bookshelves and knowledge information focused on the history of western libraries from the ancient libraries to the modern public libraries before the 20th century. And the results are follows. 1) We can make sure that the changes of the library's bookshelves are based on the environmental factors like social cultural political factors and also understand that the knowledge information are developed based on the function which is decided by the needs of the times and the serious necessities of users. With this reason, the morphology and the function of the library's bookshelves have been changed. 2) The characters and meanings of the library's bookshelves are changed with the times from movable type to fixed type, from closing type to opening type, from privileged use to public use, from religious contents to general scientific contents. 3) The morphology of the library's bookshelves are shifted from cylindrical box to Chest type Press type and Lectern system, Stall system, Wall system and advanced to Mixed(Stall+Wall) system. 4) The construction and arrangement methods of the library's bookshelves are determined by the convenience and efficiency of the installation for the perusal environments as well as the regarding to the social-cultural factors. The arrangement criteria are determined by the security topics in the earlier stage, after that determined by the lightening topics and nowadays the access topics to the information. These analysis results are very useful to research the technology of the library's bookshelves to be changed continuously and also to forecast the morphology of the library's bookshelves can be planned in the spaces of the future libraries.

The Forecast of the Cargo Transportation for the North Port in Busan, using Time Series Models (시계열 모형을 이용한 부산 북항의 물동량 예측)

  • Kim, Jung-Hoon
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2008
  • In this paper the cargo transportation were forecasted for the North Port in Busan through time series models. The cargo transportation were classified into three large groups; container, oil, general cargo. The seasonal indexes of existing cargo transportation were firstly calculated, and optimum models were chosen among exponential smoothing models and ARIMA models. The monthly cargo transportation were forecasted with applying the seasonal index in annual cargo transportation expected from the models. Thus, the cargo transportation in 2011 and 2015 were forecasted about 22,900 myriad ton and 24,654 myriad ton respectively. It was estimated that container cargo volume would play the role of locomotive in the increase of the future cargo transportation. On the other hand, the oil and general cargo have little influence upon it.

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Development of Information Technology for Smart Defense (Smart Defense 를 위한 IT 기술 개발)

  • Chung, Kyo-Il;Lee, So Yeon;Park, Sangjoon;Park, Jonghyun;Han, Sang-Cheol
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.323-328
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    • 2014
  • Recently, there has been demand for the convergence of IT (Information and communication Technologies, ICT) with defense, as has already been achieved in civilian fields such as healthcare and construction. It is expected that completely new and common requirements would emerge from the civilian and military domains and that the shape of war field would change rapidly. Many military scientists forecast that future wars would be network-centric and be based on C4I(Command, Control, Communication & Computer, Intelligence), ISR(Intelligence, Surveillance & Reconnaissance), and PGM(Precision Guided Munitions). For realizing the smart defense concept, IT should act as a baseline technology even for simulating a real combat field using virtual reality. In this paper, we propose the concept of IT-based smart defense with a focus on accurate detection in real and cyber wars, effective data communication, automated and unmanned operation, and modeling and simulation.

A Study on Forecasting Air Transport Demand between South and North Korea (남북한 연결 항공교통 수요예측에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Yeong-Hyeok;Ryu, Min-Yeong;Choe, Seong-Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.83-91
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    • 2009
  • This paper aims to predict air passenger and air freight demands in the air routes between South and North Korea. The air demands will be fostered by the visitors of Pyeongyang and Baekdu Mountain, whose forecasts will be used for supplying the air traffic services necessary for the active exchange and cooperation between South and North Korea in the future. The authors use the tool of regression analysis under the assumption of epoch-making progress in demand for aviation in accordance with the exchange and cooperation scenario between South and North Korea. After predicting the total number of travelers through regression analysis, the authors applied the share of air passengers among total travelers in order to predict the number of air passengers. Finally, the number of flights of each airport and route were forecasted by including the air freight, estimated from the number of air passengers.