• 제목/요약/키워드: future forecast

검색결과 589건 처리시간 0.026초

Forecasting for a Credit Loan from Households in South Korea

  • Jeong, Dong-Bin
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • 제8권4호
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    • pp.15-21
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    • 2017
  • Purpose - In this work, we examined the causal relationship between credit loans from households (CLH), loan collateralized with housing (LCH) and an interest of certificate of deposit (ICD) among others in South Korea. Furthermore, the optimal forecasts on the underlying model will be obtained and have the potential for applications in the economic field. Research design, data, and methodology - A total of 31 realizations sampled from the 4th quarter in 2008 to the 4th quarter in 2016 was chosen for this research. To achieve the purpose of this study, a regression model with correlated errors was exploited. Furthermore, goodness-of-fit measures was used as tools of optimal model-construction. Results - We found that by applying the regression model with errors component ARMA(1,5) to CLH, the steep and lasting rise can be expected over the next year, with moderate increase of LCH and ICD. Conclusions - Based on 2017-2018 forecasts for CLH, the precipitous and lasting increase can be expected over the next two years, with gradual rise of two major explanatory variables. By affording the assumption that the feedback among variables can exist, we can, in the future, consider more generalized models such as vector autoregressive model and structural equation model, to name a few.

Orientalism in Modern Men's Skirt Fashion (현대 남성 스커트에 나타난 오리엔탈리즘)

  • Lee, Young-Min;Lee, Youn-Hee
    • The Research Journal of the Costume Culture
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    • 제13권1호
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    • pp.133-149
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    • 2005
  • Western designers have long been inspired by exotic and mysterious looks and feelings of non-western countries in their design works. The influence of Orientalism has been prevalent not only in fashion but also in overall aspects of Western cultures ad it dated back to the B.C period. Orientalism has been interpreted differently in different ages. Orientalism has been in effect since the strong emergence of Western powers beginning in the 13th century. There have been produced many studies to analyze the tradition of Western fashion under the framework of Orientalism, but most of them have focused on women's wear and the researches on men's wear have hardly been productive, particularly on men's skirts. This paper aims to analyze the restoration movement of men's skirt fashion in Western societies such as tin America and European countries from the standpoint of Orientalism and attempts to forecast its future. The paper shows how we can reveal the identity of the tradition of men's skirt in Western fashion by making a critical comparison between the pictures of western men's skirts and those found in the folk fashion tradition in non-western countries.

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A Study for Development Plan of SAR Core Technology Through Technology Readiness Level Survey and Analysis (기술 수준조사 및 분석을 통한 SAR(합성개구면 레이다) 핵심기술 개발방안 연구)

  • Kwak, Jun-Young;Jeong, Dae-Gwon
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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    • 제14권4호
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    • pp.655-662
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    • 2011
  • SAR(Synthetic Aperture Radar) has the ability to generate high resolution images regardless of a weather condition(e.g. visibility good or poor and day or night, etc.). SAR is considered as one of the most important powers and needs for the future since it has been utilized in a number of important military fields such as early warning, urban defense, missile guidance system, etc. Additionally there are many civilian demands and applications in aviation, traffic control, earth and space explorations, weather forecast etc. This days, the ability to acquire and analyze information is needed to cope with the urgency of global politics and international changes. In this paper, technical survey and development review for SAR systems are investigated to derive the core and immature technologies of domestic defense industry.

An Analysis of Effect and Limitation when Adapting Earned Schedule Method for Schedule Management and Estimation in Korean Defense Research & Development Projects (한국 국방 연구개발 프로젝트 일정 관리 및 예측을 위한 Earned Schedule 기법의 적용 효과와 한계 분석)

  • Cho, Jungho;Lim, Jaesung
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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    • 제21권3호
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    • pp.396-402
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    • 2018
  • Earned Value Management(EVM) has been used to manage and forecast defense project schedule and cost over the last two decades in the world. However to support the lacking ability of schedule analysis in traditional EVM, earned schedule(ES) has been introduced as a tool to more accurately estimate schedule performance. This paper compares which method EVM or ES, provides more accurate schedule predictors in 32 Korean defense research and development projects. As a result of comparison, the ES method can predict the future schedule more reliably than the EVM method. We also analyze early warning function of schedule performance index considering project duration extension point. Through the analysis results, we confirm that both the EVM and the ES method lack the ability of the early warning in terms of the current schedule management criterion.

A Study on Prediction of Attendance in Korean Baseball League Using Artificial Neural Network (인경신경망을 이용한 한국프로야구 관중 수요 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Jinuk;Park, Sanghyun
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • 제6권12호
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    • pp.565-572
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    • 2017
  • Traditional method for time series analysis, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) allows to mine significant patterns from the past observations using autocorrelation and to forecast future sequences. However, Korean baseball games do not have regular intervals to analyze relationship among the past attendance observations. To address this issue, we propose artificial neural network (ANN) based attendance prediction model using various measures including performance, team characteristics and social influences. We optimized ANNs using grid search to construct optimal model for regression problem. The evaluation shows that the optimal and ensemble model outperform the baseline model, linear regression model.

Proposal of Domestic Road Bridge Deck Deterioration Models and Forecast of Replacement Demand (국내 도로교량 바닥판 열화모델 제안 및 교체 수요 예측)

  • Kim, Jin-Kwang;Jang, Il-Young
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • 제21권4호
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    • pp.61-68
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    • 2017
  • Bridge decks are members that rapidly deteriorated due to various environmental factors such as heavy vehicle and deicing salt, etc. As the lifespan of bridges built in Korea increases, it is expected that the demand for replacing the deteriorated bridge decks will increase. In other countries, Accelerated Bridge Construction technology using precast decks is already actively being used as a countermeasure for replacement demand of deteriorated bridge decks. In this study, bridge decks deterioration models are proposed by collecting and analysing the condition index data of domestic bridge decks. Also, the future replacement demands of deteriorated bridge decks in terms of replacement time and replacement scale are predicted.

A study on the evaluation of and demand forecasting for real estate using simple additive weighting model: The case of clothing stores for babies and children in the Bundang area

  • Ryu, Tae-Chang;Lee, Sun-Young
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • 제10권11호
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    • pp.31-37
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    • 2012
  • Purpose - This study was conducted under the assumption that brand A, a store of company Z of Pangyo, with a new store at Pangyo station is targeting the Bundang-gu area of the newly developed city of Seongnam. Research design, data, methodology - As a result of demand forecasting using geometric series models, an extrapolation of past trends provided the coefficient estimates, without utilizing regression analysis on a constant increase in children's wear, for which the population size and estimated parameter were required. Results - Demand forecasting on the basis of past trends indicates the likelihood that sales of discount stores in the Bundang area, where brand A currently has a presence, would fetch a higher estimated value than that of the average discount store in the country during 2015. If past trends persist, future sales of operational stores are likely to increase. Conclusions - In evaluating location using the simple weighting model, Seohyun Lotte Mart obtained a high rating amongst new stores in Pangyo, on the basis of accessibility, demand class, and existing stores. Therefore, when opening a new counter at a relevant store, a positive effect can be predicted.

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A Study on the Development of the Key Promoting Talent in the 4th Industrial Revolution - Utilizing Six Sigma MBB competency-

  • Kim, Kang Hee;Ree, Sang bok
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • 제45권4호
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    • pp.677-696
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    • 2017
  • Purpose: This study suggests that Six Sigma MBB should be used as a key talent to lead the fourth industrial revolution era by training them with big data processing capability. Methods: Through the analysis between articles on the fourth industrial revolution and Six Sigma related papers, common competencies of data scientists and Six Sigma MBBs were identified and the big data analysis capabilities needed for Six Sigma MBB were derived. Then, training was conducted to improve the big data analysis capabilities so that Six Sigma MBB is able to design algorithms required in the fourth industrial revolution era. Results: Six Sigma MBBs, equipped with the knowledge in field site improvement and basic statistics, were provided with 40 hours of big data analysis training and then were made to design a big data algorithm. Positive results were obtained after applying a AI algorithm which could forecast process defects in a field site. Conclusion: Six Sigma MBB equipped with big data capability will make the best talent for the fourth industrial revolution era. A Six Sigma MBB has an excellent capability for improving field sites. Utilizing the competencies of MBB can be a key to success in the fourth industrial revolution. We hope that the results of this study will be shared with many companies and many more improved case studies will arise in the future as a result of this study.

Development of 1-Dimensional Water Quality Model Automatizing Calibration-Correction and Application in Nakdong River (1차원 수질 예측 모형의 검보정 자동화 시스템 개발 및 낙동강에서의 적용)

  • Son, Ah Long;Han, Kun Yeun;Park, Kyung Ok;Kim, Byung Hyun
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • 제20권5호
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    • pp.765-777
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    • 2011
  • According to the total pollution load management system, exact prediction and analysis of water quality and discharge has been required in order to allocate the amount of pollution load to each local government. In this study, QUAL2E model was used for comparison with other water quality models and improve the inadequate to forecast future water quality. And Various calibration and verification methods were applied to deal with existing uncertainties of parameter during modeling water quality. For user convenience, A GUI(Graphical User Interface) system named "QL2-XP" model is developed by object-oriented language for the user convenience and practical usage. Suggested GUI system consist of hydraulic analysis, water quality analysis, optimized model calibration processes, and postprocessing the simulation results. Therefore this model will be effectively utilized to manage practical and efficient water quality.

Anti-cancer Effect and Underlying Mechanism(s) of Kaempferol, a Phytoestrogen, on the Regulation of Apoptosis in Diverse Cancer Cell Models

  • Kim, Seung-Hee;Choi, Kyung-Chul
    • Toxicological Research
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    • 제29권4호
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    • pp.229-234
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    • 2013
  • Phytoestrogens exist in edible compounds commonly found in fruits or plants. For long times, phytoestrogens have been used for therapeutic treatments against human diseases, and they can be promising ingredients for future pharmacological industries. Kaempferol is a yellow compound found in grapes, broccoli and yellow fruits, which is one of flavonoid as phytoestrogens. Kaempferol has been suggested to have an antioxidant and anti-inflammatory effect. In past decades, many studies have been performed to examine anti-toxicological role(s) of kaempferol against human cancers. It has been shown that kaempferol may be involved in the regulations of cell cycle, metastasis, angiogenesis and apoptosis in various cancer cell types. Among them, there have been a few of the studies to examine a relationship between kaempferol and apoptosis. Thus, in this review, we highlight the effect(s) of kaempferol on the regulation of apoptosis in diverse cancer cell models. This could be a forecast in regard to use of kaempferol as promising treatment against human diseases.