• Title/Summary/Keyword: forecast guidance

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A Model to Identify Expeditiously During Storm to Enable Effective Responses to Flood Threat

  • Husain, Mohammad;Ali, Arshad
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.23-30
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    • 2021
  • In recent years, hazardous flash flooding has caused deaths and damage to infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. In this paper, our aim is to assess patterns and trends in climate means and extremes affecting flash flood hazards and water resources in Saudi Arabia for the purpose to improve risk assessment for forecast capacity. We would like to examine temperature, precipitation climatology and trend magnitudes at surface stations in Saudi Arabia. Based on the assessment climate patterns maps and trends are accurately used to identify synoptic situations and tele-connections associated with flash flood risk. We also study local and regional changes in hydro-meteorological extremes over recent decades through new applications of statistical methods to weather station data and remote sensing based precipitation products; and develop remote sensing based high-resolution precipitation products that can aid to develop flash flood guidance system for the flood-prone areas. A dataset of extreme events has been developed using the multi-decadal station data, the statistical analysis has been performed to identify tele-connection indices, pressure and sea surface temperature patterns most predictive to heavy rainfall. It has been combined with time trends in extreme value occurrence to improve the potential for predicting and rapidly detecting storms. A methodology and algorithms has been developed for providing a well-calibrated precipitation product that can be used in the early warning systems for elevated risk of floods.

Characteristics of Meteorological Variables in the Leeward Side associated with the Downslope Windstorm over the Yeongdong Region (영동지역 지형성 강풍과 관련된 풍하측 기상요소의 특징)

  • Cho, Young-Jun;Kwon, Tae-Yong;Choi, Byoung-Cheol
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.315-329
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    • 2015
  • We investigated the characteristics of meteorological conditions related to the strong downslope wind over the leeward side of the Taebaek Mountains during the period 2005~2010. The days showing the strong wind exceeding $14ms^{-1}$ in Gangwon province were selected as study cases. A total of 15 days of strong wind were observed at Sokcho, Gangneung, Donghae, and Taebaek located over the Yeongdong region. Seven cases related to tropical cyclone (3 cases) and heavy snowfall (2 cases) and heavy rainfall (2 cases) over the Yeongdong region were excluded. To investigate the characteristics of the remaining 8 cases, we used synoptic weather chart, Sokcho radiosonde, Gangneung wind profiler and numerical model. The cases showed no precipitation (or ${\leq}1mm\;day^{-1}$). From the surface and upper level weather chart, we found the pressure distribution of southern high and northern low pattern over the Korean peninsula and warm ridge over the Yeongdong region. Inversion layer (or stable layer) and warm ridge with strong wind were located in about 1~3 km (925~700 hPa) over mountains. The Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System (RDAPS) indicated that warm core and temperature ridge with horizontal temperature gradient were $0.10{\sim}0.23^{\circ}C\;km^{-1}$ which were located on 850 hPa pressure level above mountaintop. These results were summarized as a forecasting guidance of downslope windstorm in the Yeongdong region.

Verification of the Planetary Boundary Layer Height Calculated from the Numerical Model Using a Vehicle-Mounted Lidar System (차량탑재 라이다 시스템을 활용한 수치모델 행성경계층고도 검증)

  • Park, Chang-Geun;Nam, Hyoung-Gu
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.36 no.5_1
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    • pp.793-806
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    • 2020
  • In this study,for YSU (Yonsei University), MYJ(Mellor-Yamada-Janjic), ACM2 (Asymmetric Convective Model), and BouLac (Bougeault-Lacarrere) PBL schemes, numerical experiments were performed for the case period (June 26-30, 2014). The PBLH calculated by using the backscatter signal produced by the mobile vehicle-mounted lidar system (LIVE) and the PBLH calculated by the prediction of each PBL schemes of WRF were compared and analyzed. In general, the experiments using the non-local schemes showed a higher correlation than the local schemes for lidar observation. The standard deviation of the PBLH difference for daylight hours was small in the order of YSU (≈0.39 km), BouLac (≈0.45 km), ACM2 (≈0.47 km), MYJ (≈0.53 km) PBL schemes. In the RMSE comparison for the case period, the YSU PBL scheme was found to have the highest precision. The meteorological lider mounted on the vehicle is expected to provide guidance for the analysis of the planetary boundary layer in a numerical model under various weather conditions.

Comparison of Consumer Media Use Gratification for the Effective Delivery of Fine Dust Information: Applying the Niche Theory (효과적인 미세먼지 정보전달을 위한 소비자의 미디어 이용충족 비교 -적소이론을 적용하여 -)

  • Song, Eugene;Kwon, Seol A;Ryu, Sang Il
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.20 no.7
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    • pp.1-18
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    • 2020
  • Fine dust is one of the top ten causes of deaths globally. More than 95% of the world's population are endangered by it. However, as the fine dust problem is difficult to address immediately, people should be informed of its risk and prepared to deal with it. This study explores the methods used to define, efficiently provide, and manage the complementary relationships between various types of media providing risk information utilizing the competitive characteristics of media in niche theory. A survey consisting of 348 Korean university students was conducted over 12 days, to analyze three factors: consumer perception of fine dust, media usage, and media use gratification. The response value for media gratification was substituted in the equation to derive the niche breadth, niche overlap, and competitive superiority. It was found that 1) for providing fine dust forecast and fine dust response guidance information, a smartphone application was the most effective; 2) smartphone applications were limited in providing additional information such as the severity and origin of fine dust, and hence, it is necessary to establish the functionality of the Internet and TV to complement smartphone applications. Thus, a system considering the above should be developed.

Effects of Meteorological Conditions on Cloud and Snowfall Simulations in the Yeongdong Region: A Case Study Based on Ideal Experiments (영동지역 기상조건이 구름 및 강설 모의에 미치는 영향: 이상 실험 기반의 사례 연구)

  • Kim, Yoo-Jun;Ahn, Bo-Yeong;Kim, Baek-Jo;Kim, Seungbum
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.445-459
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    • 2021
  • This study uses a cloud-resolving storm simulator (CReSS) to understand the individual effect of determinant meteorological factors on snowfall characteristics in the Yeongdong region based on the rawinsonde soundings for two snowfall cases that occurred on 23 February (Episode 1) and 13 December (Episode 2) 2016; one has a single-layered cloud and the other has two-layered cloud structure. The observed cloud and precipitation (snow crystal) features were well represented by a CReSS model. The first ideal experiment with a decrease in low-level temperature for Episode 1 indicates that total precipitation amount was decreased by 19% (26~27% in graupel and 53~67% in snow) compared with the control experiment. In the ideal experiment that the upper-level wind direction was changed from westerly to easterly, although total precipitation was decreased for Episode 1, precipitation was intensified over the southwestern side (specifically in terrain experiment) of the sounding point (128.855°E, 37.805°N). In contrast, the precipitation for Episode 2 was increased by 2.3 times greater than the control experiment under terrain condition. The experimental results imply that the low-level temperature and upper-level dynamics could change the location and characteristics of precipitation in the Yeongdong region. However, the difference in precipitation between the single-layered experiment and control (two-layered) experiment for Episode 2 was negligible to attribute it to the effect of upper-level cloud. The current results could be used for the development of guidance of snowfall forecast in this region.

Consultation Management Model based on Behavior Classification of Special-Needs Students (특수학생들의 행동 분류 기반의 상담관리 모델)

  • Park, Won-Cheol;Park, Koo-Rack
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.12 no.9
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    • pp.21-30
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    • 2021
  • Unlike behaviors that are generally known, information regarding unspecific behaviors is insufficient. For an education or guidance regarding the unspecific behaviors, collection and management of data regarding the unspecific behaviors of special-needs students are needed. In this paper, a consultation management model based on behavior classification of special-needs students using machine learning is proposed. It collects data by photographing the behavior of special students in real time, analyzes the behavior pattern, composes a data set, and trains it in the suggestion system. It is possible to improve the accuracy by comparing the behavior of special students photographed later into the suggestion system and analyzing the results by comparing it with the existing data again. The test has been performed by arbitrarily applying unspecific behaviors that are not stored in the database, and the forecast model has accurately classified and grouped the input data. Also, it has been verified that it is possible to accurately distinguish and classify the behaviors through the feature data of the behaviors even if there are some errors in the input process.

Freight Transport Demand and Economic Benefit Analysis for Automated Freight Transport System: Focused on GILC in Busan (인터모달 자동화물운송시스템 도입을 위한 화물운송수요 및 사업편익분석 - 부산 국제산업물류도시를 중심으로-)

  • SHIN, Seungjin;ROH, Hong-Seung;HUR, Sung Ho;KIM, Donghyun
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.17-34
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    • 2017
  • This study aims to analyze the freight transport demand and benefit for the introduction of an automated freight transport system focusing on the Global Industry and Logistics City (GILC) in Busan. In pursuit of this aim, four alternatives were calculated - using the freight volume estimating methods and included, the number of businesses, the number of employees set up, future estimated cargo volume, and switched volume from other transport modes into the GILC. Economic benefits were analyzed against social benefits and costs accordingly. The result of the freight transport demand forecast found, the cargo volume of "Alternative 2-1" to be the most advantageous, applying the number of employee unit method and proportion of employees in Gangseo-gu, Busan. In addition to the conventional analysis of direct benefit items (reduction of transport time, traffic accidents and environmental costs), this study also considered additional benefit items (congestion costs savings, and road maintenance costs in terms of opportunity cost). It also considered advanced value for money research in guidance on rail appraisal of U.K, Federal Transport Infrastructure Plan 2003 of Germany, and RailDec of the United States. The study aims to further contribute to estimating minimum cargo transport demands and assess the economic feasibility of the introduction of new intermodal automated freight transport systems in the future.

Development of Simulator for Rockfall and Landslide using Physical Engine (물리엔진을 사용한 낙석 및 산사태 시뮬레이터 개발)

  • Kim, Sung-Ho
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.9 no.9
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    • pp.60-67
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    • 2009
  • This paper describes a development of system that enables the user to simulate the rockfall and landslide from slopes using physical engine. Until now, it will not be able to accomplish the virtual experiment of three-dimensional interpretation about slope informations, stability evaluation, the rockfall and landslide simulation, etc., because of absence of three-dimensional simulation systems which relates with slopes. With like that reason, this paper developed a simulator which is identical or similar the rockfall and the landslide where the possibility which will occur or occurred from actuality is high very actual condition from virtual experiment. For a simulator development, this paper uses the physical engine which is mainly used from computer game and animation development etc., And it will be show the process where the rockfall and landslide occurs with simulator. This simulator which sees the process where the rockfall and the landslide occur from three-dimension computer graphics theory and the physical engine, is a system which is the possibility of showing actual feeling. Therefore, the result of this paper is applied in vehicle travelling guidance system and intelligence traffic systematic etc., because of creates visual service and three-dimensional application of the slope information database which is developed in existing, and will be able to forecast the upgrade of user benefit planning and a service.

Analysis of the Characteristics of Precipitation Over South Korea in Terms of the Associated Synoptic Patterns: A 30 Years Climatology (1973~2002) (종관적 특징에 따른 남한 강수 특성 분석: 30년 (1973~2002) 기후 통계)

  • Rha Deuk-Kyun;Kwak Chong-Heum;Suh Myoung-Seok;Hong Yoon
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.26 no.7
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    • pp.732-743
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    • 2005
  • The characteristics of precipitation over South Korea from 1973 to 2002 were investigated. The synoptic patterns inducing precipitation are classified by 10 categories, according to the associated surface map analysis. The annual mean frequency of the total precipitation, its duration time and amount for 30 years are 179 times, 2.9 hours, and 7.1 mm, respectively. About $59\%$ of the total precipitation events were associated with a synoptic low. The dominant patterns are identified with respect to seasons: A synoptic mobile low pressure pattern is frequent in spring, fall, and winter, whereas low pressure embedded within the Changma and orography induced precipitation are dominant in summer and in winter. For the amount of precipitation, precipitation originated from tropical air associated with typhoon, tropical convergence, and Changma is more significant than that with other pressure patterns. The statistical elapse time reaching to 80 mm, which is the threshold amount of heavy rainfall watch at KMA, takes 12.9 hours after the onset of precipitation. The probability distribution function of the precipitation shows that the maximum probability for heavy rainfall is located at the south-coastal region of the Korean peninsula. It is also shown that the geographical distribution of the Korean peninsula plays an important role in occurrence of heavy rainfall. For example, heavy precipitation is frequently occurred at Youngdong area, when typhoon passes along the coastal region of the back borne mountains in the peninsula. The climatological classification of synoptic patterns associated with heavy rainfall over South Korea can be used to provide a guidance to operational forecast of heavy rainfall in KMA.