• Title/Summary/Keyword: failure rate estimation

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A Note on a New Two-Parameter Lifetime Distribution with Bathtub-Shaped Failure Rate Function

  • Wang, F.K.
    • International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.51-60
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    • 2002
  • This paper presents the methodology for obtaining point and interval estimating of the parameters of a new two-parameter distribution with multiple-censored and singly censored data (Type-I censoring or Type-II censoring) as well as complete data, using the maximum likelihood method. The basis is the likelihood expression for multiple-censored data. Furthermore, this model can be extended to a three-parameter distribution that is added a scale parameter. Then, the parameter estimation can be obtained by the graphical estimation on probability plot.

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The Comparative Software Reliability Model of Fault Detection Rate Based on S-shaped Model (S-분포형 결함 발생률을 고려한 NHPP 소프트웨어 신뢰성 모형에 관한 비교 연구)

  • Kim, Hee Cheul;Kim, Kyung-Soo
    • Convergence Security Journal
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.3-10
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    • 2013
  • In this paper, reliability software model considering fault detection rate based on observations from the process of software product testing was studied. Adding new fault probability using the S-shaped distribution model that is widely used in the field of reliability problems presented. When correcting or modifying the software, finite failure non-homogeneous Poisson process model was used. In a software failure data analysis considering the time-dependent fault detection rate, the parameters estimation using maximum likelihood estimation of failure time data and reliability make out.

Estimation of Failure Probability Using Boundary Conditions of Failure Pressure Model for Buried Pipelines (파손압력모델의 경계조건을 이용한 매설배관의 파손확률 평가)

  • Lee, Ouk-Sub;Kim, Eui-Sang;Kim, Dong-Hyeok
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2003.04a
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    • pp.310-315
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    • 2003
  • This paper presents the effect of boundary condition of failure pressure model for buried pipelines on failure prediction by using a failure probability model. The first order Taylor series expansion of the limit state function is used in order to estimate the probability of failure associated with various corrosion defects for long exposure periods in years. A failure pressure model based on a failure function composed of failure pressure and operation pressure is adopted for the assessment of pipeline failure. The effects of random variables such as defect depth, pipe diameter, defect length, fluid pressure, corrosion rate, material yield stress, material ultimate tensile strength and pipe thickness on the failure probability of the buried pipelines are systematically studied by using a failure probability model for the corrosion pipeline.

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Bayes Estimation for the Reliability and Hazard Rate the Burr Type X Failure Model

  • Jang Sik Cho;Hee Jae Kim;Sang Gil Kang
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.5 no.3
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    • pp.723-731
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    • 1998
  • In this paper, we consider a hierarchical Bayes estimation of the parameter, the reliability and hazard rate function based on samples from a Burr type X failure model. Bayes calculations can be implemented by means of the Gibbs sampler and a numerical study us provided.

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Smooth Nonparametric Estimation of Mean Residual Life

  • Na, Myung-Hwan;Kim, Jae-Joo;Park, Sung-Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.91-100
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    • 1999
  • In this paper we propose a smooth nonparametric estimator of mean residual life based on a complete sample. This estimator is constructed using the maximum likelihood estimate of cumulative failure rate in the class of distributions which have piecewise linear failure rate functions between each pair of observations. We derive the asymptotic properties of our estimator. Examples using simulated data are used to illustrate the performance of this estimation.

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SMOOTH NONPARAMETRIC ESTIMATION OF MEAN RESIDUAL LIFE

  • Na, Myoung-Hwan;Park, Sung-Hyun;Kim, Jae-Joo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Quality Management Conference
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    • 1998.11a
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    • pp.571-579
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    • 1998
  • In this paper we propose smooth nonparametric estimator of Mean Residual Life(MRL) based on a complete sample. This estimator is constructed using estimator of cumulative failure rate which is derived as the maximum likelihood estimate of cumulative failure rate in the class of distributions which have piecewise linear failure rate functions between each pair of observations. We derive the asymptotic properties of the our estimator. The proposed estimator is compared with previously known estimator by Monte Carlo study.

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Extraction of Time-varying Failure Rate for Power Distribution System Equipment (배전계통 설비의 시변 고장률 추출)

  • Moon, Jong-Fil;Lee, Hee-Tae;Kim, Jae-Chul;Park, Chang-Ho
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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    • v.54 no.11
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    • pp.548-556
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    • 2005
  • Reliability evaluation of power distribution system is very important to both power utilities and customers. It present the probabilistic number and duration of interruption such as failure rate, SATDI, SAIFI, and CAIDI. However, it has a fatal weakness at reliability index because of accuracy of failure rate. In this paper, the Time-varying Failure Rate(TFR) of power distribution system equipment is extracted from the recorded failure data of KEPCO(Korea Electric Power Corporation) in Korea. For TFR extraction, it is used that the fault data accumulated by KEPCO during 10 years. The TFR is approximated to bathtub curve using the exponential(random failure) and Weibull(aging failure) distribution function. In addition, Kaplan-Meier estimation is applied to TFR extraction because of incomplete failure data of KEPCO. Finally, Probability plot and regression analysis is applied. It is presented that the extracted TFR is more effective and useful than Mean Failure Rate(MfR) through the comparison between TFR and MFR

Parameters estimation of the generalized linear failure rate distribution using simulated annealing algorithm

  • Sarhan, Ammar M.;Karawia, A.A.
    • International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.91-104
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    • 2012
  • Sarhan and Kundu (2009) introduced a new distribution named as the generalized linear failure rate distribution. This distribution generalizes several well known distributions. The probability density function of the generalized linear failure rate distribution can be right skewed or unimodal and its hazard function can be increasing, decreasing or bathtub shaped. This distribution can be used quite effectively to analyze lifetime data in place of linear failure rate, generalized exponential and generalized Rayleigh distributions. In this paper, we apply the simulated annealing algorithm to obtain the maximum likelihood point estimates of the parameters of the generalized linear failure rate distribution. Simulated annealing algorithm can not only find the global optimum; it is also less likely to fail because it is a very robust algorithm. The estimators obtained using simulated annealing algorithm have been compared with the corresponding traditional maximum likelihood estimators for their risks.

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Failure Rate Model of External Environment Maintenance for a System under Severe Environment (가혹환경 하에서 사용되는 시스템의 외부환경보수에 대한 고장률 모형)

  • Park, J.H.;Shin, Y.J.;Lee, S.C.;Lie, C.H.
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.69-77
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    • 2010
  • The failure rate model of External Environment Maintenance(EEM) for a system under severe environment is investigated. EEM, which is recently introduced concept, is a maintenance activity controlling external environment factors that potentially cause system failure such as cleaning equipment, controlling temperature (humidity) and removing dust inside of electronic appliances. EEM can not have any influence on the inherent failure rate of a system but reduce the severity of the external environment causing failure since it deals with only external environment factors. Therefore, we propose two failure rate models to express the improvement effect of EEM: The intensity reduction model and age reduction model. The intensity and age reduction models of EEM are developed assuming the quality of improvement effect is proportioned to an extra intensity or age respectively. The validation of proposed failure rate models is performed in order of data generation, parameter estimation and test for goodness-of-fit.

A Study on Failure Rate Extraction of Power Distribution System Equipment (배전기기 고장률 추출에 관한 연구)

  • Moon, Jong-Fil;Kim, Jae-Chul;Lee, Hee-Tae;Chu, Cheol-Min;Ahn, Jae-Min
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of IIIuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers Conference
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    • 2007.05a
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    • pp.366-368
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    • 2007
  • In this paper, the Time-varying Failure Rate (TFR) of power distribution system equipment is extracted from the recorded failure data of Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO). For TFR extraction, it is used that the fault data accumulated by KEPCO during 10 years. The TFR is approximated to bathtub curve using the exponential (random failure) and Weibull (aging failure) distribution function. In addition, Kaplan-Meier estimation is applied to TFR extraction because of incomplete failure data of KEPCO. Finally, Probability plot and regression analysis is applied. It is presented that the extracted TFR is more effective and useful than Mean Failure Rate (MFR) through the comparison between TFR and MFR.

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