• 제목/요약/키워드: failure rate estimation

검색결과 147건 처리시간 0.03초

신뢰도 평가를 위한 배전계통 설비기기 고장률 분석 (Power Distribution System Equipment Failure Rate Analysis for Reliability Estimation)

  • 이희태;김재철;문종필;박창호
    • 한국조명전기설비학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국조명전기설비학회 2004년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.370-373
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    • 2004
  • The inside and outside of the country utilities considered that they focused energy and economic aspect for short-term in new environment change of restructure. but it need service reliability preservation and improvement countermeasure, that is no to use existent estimation method for reliability preservation. therefore, analyze the equipment failure rate for suitable reliability preservation through equipment failure rate analysis of power distribution r system and evaluated equipment that is composing power distribution system by the failure rate. This paper estimated failure causes and the TVFR(Time Varying Failure Rate) for main equipment that is composing power distribution system using Weibull distribution.

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고장률 함수의 평활추정 (A Smooth Estimation of Failure Rate Function)

  • 나명환;이현우;김재주
    • 품질경영학회지
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    • 제25권3호
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    • pp.51-61
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    • 1997
  • We introduce a method of estimating an unknown failure rate function based on sample data. We estimate failure rate function by a function s from a space of cubic splines constrained to be linear (or constant) in tails using maximum likelihood estimation. The number of knots are determined by Bayesian Information Criterion(BIC). Examples using simulated data are used to illustrate the performance of this method.

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Burr 고장모형에서 신뢰도와 고장률의 베이지안 추정 (Bayesian Estimation of the Reliability and Failure Rate Functions for the Burr Type-? Failure Model)

  • 이우동;강상길
    • 품질경영학회지
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    • 제25권4호
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    • pp.71-78
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    • 1997
  • In this paper, we consider a hierarchical Bayes estimation of the parameter, the reliability and failure rate functions based on type-II censored samples from a Burr type-? failure time model. The Gibbs sampler a, pp.oach brings considerable conceptual and computational simplicity to the calculation of the posterior marginals and reliability. A numerical study is provided.

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정시중단 가속수명시험에서 고장률과 가속계수의 추정 (Estimation of Failure Rate and Acceleration Factor in Accelerated Life Testing under Type-I Censoring)

  • 공명복;박일광
    • 대한산업공학회지
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    • 제29권2호
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    • pp.145-149
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    • 2003
  • We consider the estimation of failure rate and acceleration factor under type-I censoring without using acceleration model when testing is conducted in only one highly accelerated condition. Failure times of an item are assumed to be exponentially distributed. It is also assumed that the uncertainty about the acceleration factor, the failure time contraction ratio between accelerated condition and use condition, can be modeled by the uniform or gamma prior distribution of appropriate parameters. We respectively use Bayes and maximum likelihood approaches to estimate acceleration factor and failure rate in the use condition. An example is given to show how the method can be applied.

전력용변압기의 자산관리를 위한 고장률 추정기법의 수학적 모델링에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Mathematical Modeling of Failure Rates Estimation for Asset Management of the Power Transformer)

  • 모수용;장경욱;백승명;손진근
    • 전기학회논문지P
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    • 제66권1호
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    • pp.33-37
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    • 2017
  • This paper describes the modeling of the failure rate estimation technique for applying the asset management technique to electric power facilities. There are many modeling techniques to estimate the failure rate. In this paper, the characteristics of the normal distribution, exponential distribution, weibull distribution, and piecewise linear functions are discussed. When evaluating reliability, the evaluation may be less meaningful if the sample data is insufficient. Therefore, Weibull distribution and piecewise linear function are adopted as the most suitable functions for estimating the failure rate of power facilities and the resulting failure rate function is derived.

RELIABILITY ESTIMATION FOR A DIGITAL INSTRUMENT AND CONTROL SYSTEM

  • Yaguang, Yang;Russell, Sydnor
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제44권4호
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    • pp.405-414
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    • 2012
  • In this paper, we propose a reliability estimation method for DI&C systems. At the system level, a fault tree model is suggested and Boolean algebra is used to obtain the minimal cut sets. At the component level, an exponential distribution is used to model hardware failures, and Bayesian estimation is suggested to estimate the failure rate. Additionally, a binomial distribution is used to model software failures, and a recently developed software reliability estimation method is suggested to estimate the software failure rate. The overall system reliability is then estimated based on minimal cut sets, hardware failure rates and software failure rates.

철근 부식속도 예측식을 이용한 철근 피복 파괴 시간 추정 (Estimation of Concrete Cover Failure Time Considering the Corrosion Rate in Reinforced Concrete Structures)

  • 장봉석
    • 콘크리트학회논문집
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    • 제18권2호
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    • pp.233-238
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    • 2006
  • 본 연구에서는 염해환경에 노출되어 있는 철근콘크리트 구조물의 수명예측에 있어서 철근덮개 파괴시간 예측을 위하여, 유한요소해석을 통한 방법을 제시하였다. 또한 본 연구에서는 인공세공용액중의 철근 부식속도로부터 콘크리트 중의 철근 부식속도를 유도하는 방법을 제시하였으며, 철근 부식의 분포에 따른 철근덮개의 파괴시간을 비교하여, 철근덮개 파괴시간을 합리적으로 예측하기 위한 방법을 제시하였다. 국부부식을 고려한 경우 균일한 부식을 가정한 경우보다 최대 약 40%정도 철근덮개 파괴시간이 짧아짐을 알 수 있다. 따라서, 철근덮개의 파괴시간 예측을 위한 유한요소해석에 있어서 국부부식을 고려하는 것이 합리적인 결과를 제시할 수 있을 것으로 사료된다.

Effect of Boundary Conditions of Failure Pressure Models on Reliability Estimation of Buried Pipelines

  • Lee, Ouk-Sub;Pyun, Jang-Sik;Kim, Dong-Hyeok
    • International Journal of Precision Engineering and Manufacturing
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    • 제4권6호
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    • pp.12-19
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    • 2003
  • This paper presents the effect of boundary conditions in various failure pressure models published for the estimation of failure pressure. Furthermore, this approach is extended to the failure prediction with the aid of a failure probability model. The first order Taylor series expansion of the limit state function is used in order to estimate the probability of failure associated with each corrosion defect in buried pipelines for long exposure period with unit of years. A failure probability model based on the von-Mises failure criterion is adapted. The log-normal and standard normal probability functions for varying random variables are adapted. The effects of random variables such as defect depth, pipe diameter, defect length, fluid pressure, corrosion rate, material yield stress, material ultimate tensile strength and pipe thickness on the failure probability of the buried pipelines are systematically investigated for the corrosion pipeline by using an adapted failure probability model and varying failure pressure model.

TRUNCATED SOFTWARE RELIABILITY GROWTH MODEL

  • Prince Williams, D.R.;Vivekanandan, P.
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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    • 제9권2호
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    • pp.761-769
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    • 2002
  • Due to the large scale application of software systems, software reliability plays an important role in software developments. In this paper, a software reliability growth model (SRGM) is proposed. The testing time on the right is truncated in this model. The instantaneous failure rate, mean-value function, error detection rate, reliability of the software, estimation of parameters and the simple applications of this model are discussed .

Bayes Estimation for the Rayleigh Failure Model

  • Ko, Jeong-Hwan;Kang, Sang-Gil;Shin, Jae-Kyoung
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • 제9권2호
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    • pp.227-235
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    • 1998
  • In this paper, we consider a hierarchical Bayes estimation of the parameter, the reliability and hazard rate function based on type-II censored samples from a Rayleigh failure model. Bayes calculations can be implemented easily by means of the Gibbs sampler. A numerical study is provided.

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