• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.27 no.4
• /
• pp.655-665
• /
• 2014

An adequate understanding and response to natural hazards such as heat wave, heavy rainfall and severe drought is required. We apply extreme value theory to analyze these abnormal weather phenomena. It is common for extremes in climatic data to be nonstationary in space and time. In this paper, we analyze summer rainfall data in South Korea using exceedance values over thresholds estimated by quantile regression with location information and time as covariates. We group weather stations in South Korea into 5 clusters and t extreme value models to threshold exceedances for each cluster under the assumption of independence in space and time as well as estimates of uncertainty for spatial dependence as proposed in Northrop and Jonathan (2011).

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.26 no.3
• /
• pp.239-259
• /
• 2019

The transmuted generalized extreme value (TGEV) distribution was first introduced by Aryal and Tsokos (Nonlinear Analysis: Theory, Methods & Applications, 71, 401-407, 2009) and applied by Nascimento et al. (Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics, 45, 1847-1864, 2016). However, they did not give explicit expressions for all the moments, tail behaviour, quantiles, survival and risk functions and order statistics. The TGEV distribution is a more flexible model than the simple GEV distribution to model extreme or rare events because the right tail of the TGEV is heavier than the GEV. In addition the TGEV distribution can adjusted various forms of asymmetry. In this article, explicit expressions for these measures of the TGEV are obtained. The tail behavior and the survival and risk functions were determined for positive gamma, the moments for nonzero gamma and the moment generating function for zero gamma. The performance of the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) of the TGEV parameters were tested through a series of Monte Carlo simulation experiments. In addition, the model was used to fit three real data sets related to financial returns.

• Bulletin of the Korean Mathematical Society
• /
• v.55 no.3
• /
• pp.679-698
• /
• 2018

In this paper, with optimal normalized constants, the asymptotic expansions of the distribution and density of the normalized maxima from generalized Maxwell distribution are derived. For the distributional expansion, it shows that the convergence rate of the normalized maxima to the Gumbel extreme value distribution is proportional to 1/ log n. For the density expansion, on the one hand, the main result is applied to establish the convergence rate of the density of extreme to its limit. On the other hand, the main result is applied to obtain the asymptotic expansion of the moment of maximum.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
• /
• v.32 no.4
• /
• pp.313-335
• /
• 2003

Hourly ozone data are available for 73 stations in South Korea from January, 1988 to August, 1998. We are interested in detecting trends in both the mean levels and the extremes of ozone, and in determining how these trends vary over the country. The latter aspect means that we also have to understand the spatial dependence of ozone. In this connection, therefore, we examine in this paper the following features: determining trends in mean ozone levels at individual stations and combination across stations; determining trends in extreme ozone levels at individual stations and combination across stations; spatial modeling of trends in mean and extreme ozone levels.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.29 no.4
• /
• pp.753-771
• /
• 2016

Value at Risk (VaR) is widely used as an important tool for risk management of financial institutions. In this paper we discuss estimation and back testing for VaR of the portfolio composed of KOSPI, Dow Jones, Shanghai, Nikkei indexes. The copula functions are adopted to construct the multivariate distributions of portfolio components from marginal distributions that combine extreme value theory and GARCH models. Volatility models with t distribution of the error terms using Gaussian, t, Clayton and Frank copula functions are shown to be more appropriate than the other models, in particular the model using the Frank copula is shown to be the best.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.5 no.3
• /
• pp.855-868
• /
• 1998

For a random sample of size n from general linear model, $Y_i= heta(X_i)+varepsilon_i,;let Y_{in}$ denote the ith oder statistics of the Y sample values. The X-value associated with $Y_{in}$ is denoted by $X_{[in]}$ and is called the concomitant of ith order statistics. The estimator of the location of a maximum of a regression function, $ heta$($\chi$), was proposed by (equation omitted) and was found the convergence rate of it under certain weak assumptions on $ heta$. We will discuss the asymptotic distributions of both $ heta(X_{〔n-r+1〕}$) and (equation omitted) when r is fixed as nolongrightarrow$\infty$(i.e. extreme case) on the basis of the theorem of the concomitants of order statistics. And the will investigate the asymptotic behavior of Max｛$\theta$( $X_{〔n-r+1:n〕/}$ ), . , $\theta$( $X_{〔n:n〕}$)｝as an estimator for the peak of a regression function.

• Wind and Structures
• /
• v.3 no.1
• /
• pp.69-71
• /
• 2000

• Journal of the Chungcheong Mathematical Society
• /
• v.27 no.3
• /
• pp.347-361
• /
• 2014

Generalized Pareto distribution play an important role in reliability, extreme value theory, and other branches of applied probability and statistics. This family of distribution includes exponential distribution, Pareto or Lomax distribution. In this paper, we established exact expressions and recurrence relations satised by the quotient moments of generalized order statistics for a generalized Pareto distribution. Further the results for quotient moments of order statistics and records are deduced from the relations obtained and a theorem for characterizing this distribution is presented.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
• /
• v.33 no.3
• /
• pp.339-351
• /
• 2004

In this paper we generalize and improve the refined Pickands estimator of Drees (1995) for the extreme value index. The finite-sample performance of the refined Pickands estimator is not good particularly when the sample size n is small. For each fixed k = 1,2,..., a new estimator is defined by a convex combination of k different generalized Pickands estimators and its asymptotic normality is established. Optimal weights defining the estimator are also determined to minimize the asymptotic variance of the estimator. Finally, letting k depend upon n, we see that the resulting estimator has a better finite-sample behavior as well as a better asymptotic efficiency than the refined Pickands estimator.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.24 no.5
• /
• pp.493-505
• /
• 2017

Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of the generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) is known to sometimes over-estimate the positive value of the shape parameter for the small sample size. The maximum penalized likelihood estimation (MPLE) with Beta penalty function was proposed by some researchers to overcome this problem. But the determination of the hyperparameters (HP) in Beta penalty function is still an issue. This paper presents some data adaptive methods to select the HP of Beta penalty function in the MPLE framework. The idea is to let the data tell us what HP to use. For given data, the optimal HP is obtained from the minimum distance between the MLE and MPLE. A bootstrap-based method is also proposed. These methods are compared with existing approaches. The performance evaluation experiments for GEVD by Monte Carlo simulation show that the proposed methods work well for bias and mean squared error. The methods are applied to Blackstone river data and Korean heavy rainfall data to show better performance over MLE, the method of L-moments estimator, and existing MPLEs.